Revisiting an Important Target Level

Regular readers may still remember my post of STI target level, where I was looking STI resistance area at 2700~2750. This chart, for me, represents a point of pride and a point of shame:

- I am immensely pride that, so far,it has been working very accurate, it hit its highest level 2739.55( although it slightely below my upper range by 10.45 points), and did fall hard after that( it's about 100 points down from its peak now)

- I am immensely shamed of the fact that I did not exploit my own insight to change my bullish direction and take some shorts. This was an incomprehensible failure on my part that I live with everyday. I did not follow my plan, and ignored the warning of US dollar going to rebound that I mentioned in this post .

Now, in this business, taking a stand on anything is a thankless task. If you are right, people don't really remember, but if you're wrong, you are subjest to derision and mockery.

It's much safer to basically say things will either go up or down. So next time when you write about the market, carefully pull out the quotes and line up with reality and make yourself look like you nailed it.

one such "bold prediction" was posted here , implicitly(well, give myself a leeway) indicated it will go higher.

It didn't.

So what went wrong? As for STI, I paid too much attention to the move but not enough to the strength of the move. It's looks like this for STI( posted few post back)



The gradient from steep become flat now, indicates bulls are losing their strength. The first sign of down turn confirmation will be the trendline break drawn in the chart( trendline is always give early signal as compare to other indicators), a break down below it signals further retacement coming.