Hormuz Hope: Markets Snap Five-Week Losing Streak

For the week ended Apr 4, 2026, global equity markets staged their first meaningful relief rally since the Iran war began, as tentative signs of de-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz reignited risk appetite. U.S. indexes logged their first winning week since the conflict started, with the S&P 500 advancing 3.4%, the Dow rising nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq leading the charge with a 4.4% gain — its best weekly performance since November. In China and Hong Kong, markets ended the shortened week in mixed-to-modest positive territory, as improving domestic PMI data offset persistent geopolitical headwinds, the Shanghai Composite ended with modest loss of 0.86%, and the Hang Seng gaining 0.66%. In Singapore, the STI regained the 5,000 mark on Friday before late selling emerged once oil crossed US$110 a barrel, though the index still recorded a 1% weekly gain. 

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led all major indexes higher, logging its best week since November, while the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced 3.36% and 2.96%, respectively. The holiday-shortened week — markets closed Friday for Good Friday — ended as a tale of two halves. Early sessions surged on de-escalation optimism, but Trump's Wednesday night address reintroduced uncertainty, with WTI crude spiking 11.4% to US$111.54/barrel — its highest since June 2022. Stocks recovered Thursday after Iranian state media reported that Iran and Oman were drafting a Strait of Hormuz monitoring protocol, providing late-week stability. 

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

(Refer to the major indices’ monthly performance tables for March below.) 

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones: +2.96%

·       S&P 500: +3.36%

·       Nasdaq Composite: +4.44%

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Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Iran war: one step forward, one step back
Early-week optimism that the conflict may wind down fuelled a sharp rally, but Trump's Wednesday address focused more on escalation than peace negotiations, with no clear timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Reports that Iran and Oman are developing a monitoring protocol for Strait traffic provided a late-week stabilisation.

2️⃣ Oil: the key variable
WTI crude surged 11.4% to $111.54/barrel (highest since June 2022) after Trump’s address. A 3–4 week disruption may ease prices and lift equities; a 3–4 month closure risks supply shortages, higher prices, and elevated recession risk, especially outside the U.S..

3️⃣ Labour market broadly resilient
March nonfarm payrolls added 178k jobs (vs. expectations), released Friday when markets were closed. ADP private payrolls showed 62k (vs. 40k expected), and jobless claims fell to 202k, below forecasts, supporting the “higher-for-longer” rates narrative.

4️⃣ISM manufacturing expands for third straight month

ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March (vs. estimates), driven by new orders and production. However, employment contracted for the 30th consecutive month, and price pressures hit their highest since June 2022.

5️⃣ Consumer confidence edges up; job openings slip

Consumer Confidence rose to 91.8 (second monthly gain), though still below 2021 levels. Job openings dropped to 6.9M in February from 7.2M in January, and hiring fell to its lowest since 2020.

6️⃣Fed and rates: no cuts expected

Markets now price in zero rate cuts for 2026 after the Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7% (from 2.4%). The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.31%, down from 4.44% after Powell eased some inflation concerns.

7️⃣Tesla delivers a miss

Tesla shares fell >5% after Q1 vehicle deliveries missed analyst estimates, pressuring the consumer discretionary sector.

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S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

All 11 sectors closed positive except Energy (XLE), which fell 5.29%. Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) led; Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged—opposite of the prior week.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

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Technical Snapshot

All three major indexes closed near their 200-day moving average, snapping a five-week downtrend. SPX closed just points below its 200dma.

📊 Weekly charts:

• DJI weekly chart
• SPX weekly chart
• Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese and Hong Kong equities ended a mixed week, balancing encouraging domestic economic signals against the ongoing backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty tied to the Strait of Hormuz. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 1.37%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) retreated 0.86%, and the Hang Seng Index added 0.66% for the week. China's mainland markets will open on Friday but close on Monday for the Qingming Festival, while Hong Kong markets were shut from Friday through Tuesday for Easter and local public holidays.

·       CSI 300: -1.37%

·       Shanghai Composite: -0.86%

·       Hang Seng Index: +0.66%

Key Highlights and outlook

1️⃣ PMI rebound broad-based
Official Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March (fastest expansion in a year), after two months of contraction. Nonmanufacturing PMI improved to 50.1, and S&P Global/RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI hit 50.8 (4th straight month of expansion), signaling momentum across state and private firms.

2️⃣ Rising input costs temper the recovery narrative
Both official and private PMIs flagged higher input costs, indicating an uneven, cost-driven recovery with emerging margin pressure as a key risk.

3️⃣ China & Pakistan propose 5-point peace plan

China and Pakistan jointly proposed a peace framework calling for an immediate ceasefire, renewed negotiations, and protection of critical shipping routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing UN-led multilateral cooperation.

4️⃣ China scraps VAT export rebates on clean energy

Effective April 1, China removed VAT export rebates on solar components, batteries, and industrial materials to address overcapacity and trade tensions. This raises export costs and may accelerate sector consolidation and margin pressure.

5️⃣ Strait of Hormuz: Asia's outsized exposure

Iran’s closure disrupted ~20% of global oil supplies. China, India, Japan, and South Korea together account for ~75% of oil exports from the region, heightening exposure to prolonged disruption.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

• SSE weekly chart
• HSI weekly chart

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🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

STI regained 5,000 on Friday before late selling as oil crossed $110/barrel, still posting a ~1% weekly gain. Singapore showed relative resilience due to defensive sectors and safe-haven status, but remains exposed as a key refining/transit hub (Jurong Island processes up to 1.5M bpd).

Banks: DBS / OCBC / UOB

The three banks (~50% of STI weight) tracked the mid-week recovery but faced Thursday headwinds as oil spiked. Higher-for-longer rates support net interest margins; UOB and OCBC showed margin stabilization in Q4 2025. OCBC declared a S$0.58 cash dividend, ex-date 23 April 2026.

Top Performers of the Week

Sembcorp Industries and OCBC were key gainers for the 2nd consecutive week.

Technical Snapshot

STI closes above all its major MAs but still within its sideway consolidation since Feb peak.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly chart:

• STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (7–11 April 2026)

·       Thursday (U.S.): February PCE Price Index — the Fed's preferred inflation measure; expected to show the impact of early-stage oil price pass-through on consumer prices.

·       Thursday (U.S.): Delta Air Lines earnings — a bellwether for travel demand and airline cost pressures amid elevated jet fuel prices.

·       Ongoing: Middle East developments and Strait of Hormuz oil flow updates remain the singular macro variable markets are trading around. Any fresh signals on de-escalation — or escalation — will set the tone for equities globally.

·       Singapore: Monitor bank-related news ahead of OCBC's ex-dividend on 23 April; broader STI direction likely to be set by oil price trajectory and U.S. market sentiment.

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and it will be removed if necessary.

 

Ceasefire Hopes, Energy Fears: A Market Caught in the Middle

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For the week ended Mar 27, 2026, Markets closed out a fifth consecutive week of losses across major U.S. benchmarks, as investors navigated a relentless cycle of ceasefire optimism and geopolitical disappointment tied to the ongoing Iran conflict. In China and Hong Kong, equities retreated modestly — Middle East-driven energy cost pressures reframed earnings risk across key sectors, though the prospect of a Trump-Xi summit in May offered a sliver of diplomatic hope. Singapore's STI held up with relative resilience, closing around 4,898 on Friday, as oil-linked sectors and the three local banks provided ballast against the broader global risk-off headwinds.

 

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets logged a fifth straight weekly decline as the Iran conflict kept energy prices elevated and sentiment fragile. The week opened with optimism on ceasefire reports, but faded as Washington, Jerusalem and Tehran remained far apart on any deal. The S&P 500(SPX), Dow(DJI) and Nasdaq(COMP) all finished lower, while large-cap value outperformed growth for a third consecutive week.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones: -0.9%

·       S&P 500: -2.12%

·       Nasdaq Composite: -3.23%

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Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Business activity slows, prices spike
S&P Global's Flash Composite PMI fell to an 11-month low of 51.4 in March, driven by weaker services activity. Input costs rose at the fastest pace in 10 months, with firms directly attributing the squeeze to Middle East-driven energy prices — and passing them through at the fastest rate since 2022.

2️⃣ Labour holds; consumer confidence cracks
Initial jobless claims held steady at 210,000 for the week ended 21 March. However, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment dropped to 53.3 from 56.6 in February, with one-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.8% — the sharpest monthly rise since April 2025.

3️⃣ Inflation trajectory worsening near-term
With U.S. gasoline prices near $4/gallon (up from $2.80 at year-start), headline CPI is on track to spike toward 3.5% year-on-year. Energy alone accounts for ~3% of the CPI basket, with second-round effects through airfares, food and utilities amplifying the move — though the spike is expected to fade gradually in H2 2026.

4️⃣Fed tightrope; rate hike bets creep in

The 10-year Treasury has risen nearly 50 basis points in March. Markets are now pricing a small but real probability of a Fed rate hike this year — a scenario that seemed remote just two months ago. The Fed has maintained a balanced stance, with most FOMC members still projecting a cut in 2026, but the bar is rising with each week of elevated oil.

5️⃣ Outlook: Payrolls the key test

Consensus expects ~51,000 jobs added in March, unemployment unchanged. A solid print would ease fragility fears after February's weak report; a miss would amplify downside risks considerably.

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S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Four out of the 11 SPX sectors closed positive for the week. Energy(XLE), Utilities(XLU) and Consumer Staples(XLP) — classic defensive and inflationary-hedge plays — continued to outperform, while Technology(XLK) and Communication Services(XLC) lagged under rate sensitivity and mega-cap growth pressure. Breadth was modestly better than headlines suggested, with mid and small-caps showing tentative stabilisation.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

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Technical Snapshot 

All U.S. three major indexes have been in their 5^th week down streak, DJI immediate support at around 45000 level, which is not only a round number but also prior resistance-turn-to-support. Both SPX and Nasdaq indexes also confirmed heightened risk-off pressure- long red candlesticks show bears firmly in charge.

📊 Weekly charts:

• DJI weekly chart
• SPX weekly chart
• Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese and Hong Kong equities retreated modestly, driven more by Middle East-related energy spillover than domestic macro disappointment, as investors reassessed earnings pressure across transportation, industrial and consumer sectors. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 1.41%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) declined 1.09%, and theHang Seng Index lost 1.29% for the week.

·       CSI 300: -1.41%

·       Shanghai Composite: -1.09%

·       Hang Seng Index: -1.29%

Key Highlights and outlook

1️⃣ Beijing caps fuel price hikes
The NDRC raised domestic gasoline and diesel prices by ~10% — roughly half the increase expected under the standard mechanism — to cushion households and industry. China is a net oil importer, with ~45% of its crude shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz, placing energy security directly in the conflict's crosshairs.

2️⃣ Trump-Xi summit confirmed for 14–15 May
Donald Trump will travel to Beijing in mid-May for a summit with President Xi, delayed from an earlier date due to the Iran war. Both sides aim to stabilise relations and address tariffs, providing a modest diplomatic lift to sentiment earlier in the week.

3️⃣ China opens trade probes into U.S. practices

Beijing's Ministry of Commerce launched six-month investigations on Friday into U.S. supply chain and renewable energy policies — mirroring Washington's Section 301 tools, targeting import restrictions, export controls and investment limits. Beijing signalled some measures may breach WTO rules, clearly framing its negotiating position ahead of the May summit.

4️⃣ Industrial profits surged 15.2% in Jan–Feb

Profits at major industrial firms jumped sharply year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, before the Iran conflict's full impact set in. Private firms led at +37.2% versus state-owned enterprises at +5.3% — a reminder that domestic fundamentals were improving heading into the external shock, though the March trajectory will be much harder to read.

5️⃣ Airfares spike, regional tourism disrupted

Asia-Europe long-haul fares have surged as much as 560% due to Middle East airspace closures and rising jet fuel costs, hitting regional tourism flows and adding input cost pressure across airlines and travel-related sectors.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

• SSE weekly chart
• HSI weekly chart

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🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The STI remained relatively resilient compared to global peers for the week ended 27 March, closing at 4,898, was down 1.02% weekly, with the index broadly range-bound between 4,700 and 5,040 pending clearer resolution on the Iran conflict. Oil prices above US$110 per barrel drove a sharp divergence across STI constituents-energy-linked and financial stocks provided ballast, while rate-sensitive property and transport names pulled back. 

On the domestic data front, Singapore's CPI for February 2026 rose 0.6% from the previous month and 1.2% year-on-year — released on 23 March — reflecting a still-benign local inflation picture relative to global peers, though the lagged impact of elevated global energy prices in March is likely to push that figure higher in coming months.

Top Performers of the Week

Sembcorp Industries, Singapore Exchange (SGX) and OCBC stood out as key gainers for the week, with the other two banks DBS and UOB also holding resilient. On the downside, REITs names such as Kep DC Reit and Frasers L&C were among the worst performers, pressured by rising bond yields and rate-sensitive valuation headwinds.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The STI index has been in sideway consolidation within previous weekly trading range. It’s now holding just above 50dma level around 4866, next major support is around 4800 area.

📊 Weekly chart:

• STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead | 30 March – 4 April 2026

The coming week brings the most consequential data of the month, and arguably of the quarter — with markets entering it bruised after the S&P 500 and Dow closed out March with losses of roughly 5.8% and 6.2% respectively, their worst quarter since the early stages of the Iran conflict.

Friday 3 April: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (March) is the marquee event. February's report delivered a shock — payrolls contracted by 92,000 jobs against an expected gain, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. IG March's reading will be watched extremely closely to determine whether February was a one-off stumble or the start of a more serious labour market deterioration. A rebound toward consensus (~51,000 jobs) would ease recession concerns; a second consecutive miss could force a significant re-pricing of Fed policy.

Wednesday 1 April: ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) and Friday 3 April: ISM Services PMI (March) IG will provide the first full-month gauge of how businesses are absorbing the energy shock — particularly the prices-paid sub-indices, which markets will scrutinise for any broadening of inflationary pressure beyond energy.

China's NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI for March (due Tuesday 1 April) will be the first hard data read on how Beijing's industrial sector is weathering the oil price shock and trade uncertainty heading into the Trump-Xi summit. Any sharp deterioration would add a second leg of pressure to already soft regional sentiment.

For Singapore, the local calendar is relatively light, but STI direction will continue to track the Iran conflict headlines and the outcome of Friday's U.S. payrolls — the single biggest binary event for global risk appetite next week.

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and it will be removed if necessary.

Cautious Global Markets, Resilient Singapore

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For the week ended Mar 20, 2026, Markets endured another choppy week as the Iran conflict kept oil near recent highs, with Brent flirting with USD120 and WTI nearing USD100. U.S. equities slipped while Treasury yields edged higher, as investors weighed the growth hit from energy against still‑solid fundamentals and a cautious Fed that left rates unchanged and signalled only one cut this year. Energy stocks outperformed on the back of higher crude, while most other sectors struggled under rising inflation worries. In Asia, Chinese and Hong Kong markets stayed sensitive to oil swings and tech earnings, with better‑than‑expected China activity data only partly offsetting concerns over imported inflation and policy uncertainty.

 

U.S. Stocks – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed lower in a volatile week shaped by oil price swings, rising inflation concerns, and hawkish interpretation of the Fed’s latest signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) fared worst, declining 2.11%, followed by the Nasdaq Composite(COMP), which shed 2.07%, the S&P 500(SPX) also fell 1.90%.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones: -2.11%

·       S&P 500: -1.90%

·       Nasdaq Composite: -2.07%

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Key Highlights for the Week and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed- On Hold, But Watching Inflation Expectations
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, as expected. The Fed’s overall tone was cautious. Policymakers did not make major changes to their outlook, but they acknowledged that the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices create additional uncertainty.

2️⃣ Economic Data – Mixed but Still Holding Up
Recent data suggests the economy is slowing only modestly, not collapsing.

·       Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% m/m in February, stronger than expected

·       Annual PPI accelerated to 3.4%

·       Homebuilder sentiment improved slightly in March

·       Pending home sales rose 1.8%

·       New home sales fell sharply to the lowest since 2022

This paints a mixed picture: inflation is still sticky, but the economy has not rolled over.

3️⃣ This Oil Shock ≠ the 1970s
While headlines are alarming, today’s oil shock is not a replay of 1970s‑style stagflation. Energy is only about 2% of U.S. consumer spending versus roughly 6% back then, so the hit to household wallets is smaller. The U.S. is now a net oil exporter, with domestic gas prices relatively shielded even as Europe and Asia face tighter supply, and shale producers benefit from higher crude. Globally, the economy is far less oil‑intensive, with much less energy needed per unit of GDP thanks to efficiency gains and the shift to services. Overall, this shock is growth‑negative and inflation‑positive, but the underlying fundamentals are stronger than in past oil panics.

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S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

S&P 500 sectors posted a clear risk-off week, with only Energy closing higher (+2.8%) amid elevated crude prices and rotation into oil names. Every other sector declined, led by Utilities (-4.9%) and Consumer Staples (-4.1%)—defensives that offered no refuge. Cyclicals and growth struggled too: Tech (-1.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-3.1%), Industrials (-2.9%), and Communication Services (-2.2%). The broad market (SPY) fell ~2.1%, with leadership narrowing sharply into Energy as the only bright spot.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

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Technical snapshot – major U.S. indices

U.S. three major indices confirmed heightened risk-off pressure: all three—SPX, DJI, and Nasdaq—broke their 200-day moving averages this week, a major bearish signal alarming bulls. SPX closed below its 200dma (~6,594) for the first time since last May and also snapped key support at ~6,550 on Friday, with Dow -2.1%, SPX -1.9%, COMP -2.1%. Bears now firmly in charge as rallies look capped until oil volatility eases.

📊 Weekly charts:

• DJI weekly chart
• SPX weekly chart
• Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Markets

Market Overview

China equities fell this week as rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions added to persistent concerns over weak domestic demand and limited policy support. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 2.19%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) dropped 3.38%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index edged down 0.74%.  

·       CSI 300: -2.19%

·       Shanghai Composite: -3.38%

·       Hang Seng Index: -0.74%

Key Highlights – China & Hong Kong

1️⃣ Activity data modestly beat expectations
China’s January–February activity data came in slightly better than expected, pointing to some early-year stabilization. Industrial production rose 6.3% y/y and retail sales increased 2.8%, both ahead of forecasts. Fixed asset investment grew 1.8%, supported mainly by infrastructure spending, though property investment remained weak.

2️⃣ Property market shows tentative stabilization
China’s property sector showed early signs of stabilizing in February. New home prices in 70 cities fell 0.28% m/m, improving from January’s 0.37% decline, while resale home prices saw the smallest drop in 10 months. Authorities continue to roll out selective support measures, including easing homebuying rules for non-residents in major cities.

3️⃣ Trade tensions resurface

U.S.-China trade tensions have resurfaced after Washington launched new Section 301 investigations into manufacturing policies and excess capacity in strategic sectors. The probe could lead to fresh tariffs on imports from China and several other economies as early as this summer. Beijing has urged dialogue but signaled it will defend its interests if needed.

4️⃣ Hong Kong faces oil shock and market volatility risks

Hong Kong could face higher oil-related inflation and increased market volatility if the Middle East conflict escalates further. As an import-dependent economy, the city is more exposed to energy supply disruptions and rising fuel costs. This may add pressure on sentiment, household spending, and broader financial markets.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

• SSE weekly chart
• HSI weekly chart

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🇸🇬 Singapore Market – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview
The Straits Times Index (STI) outperformed regional peers in Week 12, rising 2.2% to 4,948.87, even as most other benchmarks drifted lower amid oil-driven volatility and broader geopolitical uncertainty. The resilience was led by strength in Sembcorp Industries (+6.6%), Singtel (+5.0%), SGX (+4.8%) and the local banks — DBS (+3.8%), OCBC (+3.6%) and UOB (+2.8%). This reflects the STI’s relatively defensive market mix, with support from energy, telcos and financials, which helped cushion the broader market weakness. In short, it was a classic rotation trade: Singapore held up better thanks to sector leadership, while broader regional sentiment remained capped until crude price volatility eases.

Market Leaders

Outperformers:

• SCI: +6.59%
• SingTel: +5.04%

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot – STI
The STI registered a bullish crossover against its key moving averages during the week and closed above all major trend lines, suggesting bulls remain firmly in control for now. Technically, the setup stays constructive, but with regional markets turning weaker, investors should monitor the 50-day moving average near 4,863 as an important near-term support level in the coming week.

📊 Weekly chart:

• STI weekly chart

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and it will be removed if necessary.

 

Will Oil Break This Market?

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For the week ended Mar 13, 2026, global equities extended their pullback, as renewed conflict in Iran, surging oil back near or above 95–100 dollars a barrel, and fading hopes for early Fed rate cuts weighed on risk sentiment. Asian markets were generally softer, with Japan, Korea and Hong Kong all under pressure as investors digested the stronger dollar, elevated volatility (VIX near the high‑20s), and the risk that geopolitics could further delay monetary easing. 

U.S. Stocks – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview

U.S. equities declined for the third straight week, with the S&P 500(SPX), Dow(DJI) and Nasdaq(COMP) falling around 1.3%–2.0% as renewed conflict in Iran, surging oil back near or above 95–100 dollars a barrel, and fading hopes for early Fed rate cuts weighed on risk sentiment.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones: -1.99%

·       S&P 500: -1.60%

·       Nasdaq Composite: -1.26%

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Key Highlights for the Week and Outlook

1️⃣ Oil spike
WTI crude has surged more than 30% year‑to‑date and recently traded in the high‑70s to high‑80s as markets reacted to effective disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries around 20% of global seaborne oil and a significant share of LNG flows.

2️⃣ Inflation Improved
Heading into the latest oil spike, the inflation backdrop was improving: headline CPI had eased to around 2.4% and core to about 2.5% year over year, the lowest since 2021, as shelter costs gradually cooled. A sustained rise in energy prices from here could push headline inflation back above 3% even if core remains more contained, complicating—but not derailing—the disinflation narrative.

3️⃣ Fed FOMC meeting Mar 17-18
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at this week’s meeting, but the combination of firmer energy prices and sticky service inflation has already pushed markets to price a later and shallower easing cycle. Where investors once anticipated a series of cuts, current pricing implies only one or two reductions by the end of 2026, consistent with the idea of delay rather than cancellation of the easing path

4️⃣ Growth resilience
Global PMI data remain in expansion territory, with the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI around the mid‑50s equivalent and consistent with roughly 2.5%–2.6% annualized global GDP growth—below the pre‑pandemic trend, but clearly not recessionary. That backdrop supports the view that the world economy entered this shock with decent momentum, even if growth is running in a lower gear.

5️⃣ U.S. oil‑shock sensitivity
The U.S. economy is structurally less exposed to oil shocks than in past cycles: the country has been a net total energy exporter since 2019, and a larger share of output now comes from services rather than heavy industry, making overall energy intensity lower than in prior decades.

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S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

U.S. sectors posted a mixed but broadly risk‑off week, with only Energy and Utilities finishing higher while cyclical and growth areas lagged. Energy was the clear outperformer, rising 2.0% as investors rotated into oil‑linked names amid elevated crude prices, while Utilities also eked out a small gain. The broad market (SPY) fell about 1.5%, with the weakest performance coming from Financials (-3.32%), Consumer Discretionary (-3.13%), Industrials (-3.11%) and Communication Services (-2.56%), underscoring pressure on cyclicals and rate‑sensitive sectors.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

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Technical snapshot – major U.S. indices

For the week, all three major U.S. benchmarks—Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq—closed lower, confirming a broad-based corrective phase rather than a narrow tech-driven pullback. with the Dow dropping 2.0% (worst performer), S&P 500 -1.6%, and Nasdaq -1.3% (most resilient). Dow's outsized decline reflects cyclical/value selling; S&P shows broad distribution per your sector data; Nasdaq holds up on growth/AI favoritism. Classic risk-off action amid oil shock and fading rate-cut hopes—rallies likely capped until volatility eases.

📊 Weekly charts:

• DJI weekly chart
• SPX weekly chart
• Nasdaq weekly chart

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China / Hong Kong Markets

Market Overview

Chinese equities were mixed over the week. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index edged 0.19%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) retreated 0.70%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 1.13%. Overall resilience despite global volatility.

·       CSI 300: +0.19%

·       Shanghai Composite: -0.70%

·       Hang Seng Index: -1.13%

Key Highlights – China & Hong Kong

1️⃣ Inflation Acceleration
Consumer inflation in China hit its fastest pace in over three years, with the CPI rising 1.3% year-over-year in February, driven by Chinese New Year holiday demand for travel and tourism services. Core inflation climbed to 1.8% YoY—the highest since March 2019—indicating firmer underlying price pressures. Producer prices stayed in deflation for the 41st straight month but saw the mildest decline since July 2024, aided by rising metals and oil costs.

2️⃣ Robust Export Surge
China's exports jumped 21.8% in January-February combined (to smooth CNY effects), far exceeding forecasts, fueled by global AI/tech demand for electronics despite U.S. trade declines offset by gains to Europe and Southeast Asia. Imports rose 19.8%, pushing the trade surplus to a record $213.6 billion and signaling strong external demand amid resilient domestic absorption.

3️⃣ AI agent boosts Chinese technology stocks

Chinese tech stocks rallied on adoption of OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent enabling autonomous task execution and marking a shift from chatbots to decision-making systems. Gains moderated as banks, brokerages, and government entities issued usage cautions and restricted employee access, tempering near-term enthusiasm for early adopters and infrastructure plays.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

• SSE weekly chart
• HSI weekly chart

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Singapore Market – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview
The Straits Times Index (STI) edged down 0.12% to 4,842.27, a shallow pullback from February peaks above 5,000 amid global oil volatility—resilient relative to U.S./HK declines. Commodities led: Wilmar International surged 8.88% on palm oil/China demand; DFI Retail +8.06%, Hongkong Land +5.13% on property rotation.

Market Leaders

Outperformers:

• Wilmar (F34): +8.88%
• DFI Retail (D01): +8.06%

Banks Anchor Resilience

Big three banks held defensive: DBS +0.56%, UOB +0.25%, OCBC -0.91%—steady NIMs/dividends offsetting rate pressures, comprising ~50% index weight.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot – STI
The STI remains in a strong primary uptrend on a multi‑month view, even after snapping its nine‑week winning streak. It closed just above its 50‑day MA around 4,846, suggesting the current move is still a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed trend change.

The STI maintains its primary uptrend on multi-month charts despite a three-week retreat, closing at 4,842.27—precisely at its 50-day moving average, confirming consolidation rather than reversal. The index has had a shallow 1.95% monthly pullback from the February all-time high of 5,041, Key support at c.4,800 holds firm; a break below risks 4,700, but resilient bank weights and commodity rotation suggest rallies toward 4,850 resistance remain viable within the uptrend.

📊 Weekly chart:

• STI weekly chart

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