Cautious Global Markets, Resilient Singapore

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For the week ended Mar 20, 2026, Markets endured another choppy week as the Iran conflict kept oil near recent highs, with Brent flirting with USD120 and WTI nearing USD100. U.S. equities slipped while Treasury yields edged higher, as investors weighed the growth hit from energy against still‑solid fundamentals and a cautious Fed that left rates unchanged and signalled only one cut this year. Energy stocks outperformed on the back of higher crude, while most other sectors struggled under rising inflation worries. In Asia, Chinese and Hong Kong markets stayed sensitive to oil swings and tech earnings, with better‑than‑expected China activity data only partly offsetting concerns over imported inflation and policy uncertainty.

 

U.S. Stocks – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed lower in a volatile week shaped by oil price swings, rising inflation concerns, and hawkish interpretation of the Fed’s latest signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) fared worst, declining 2.11%, followed by the Nasdaq Composite(COMP), which shed 2.07%, the S&P 500(SPX) also fell 1.90%.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones: -2.11%

·       S&P 500: -1.90%

·       Nasdaq Composite: -2.07%

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Key Highlights for the Week and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed- On Hold, But Watching Inflation Expectations
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, as expected. The Fed’s overall tone was cautious. Policymakers did not make major changes to their outlook, but they acknowledged that the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices create additional uncertainty.

2️⃣ Economic Data – Mixed but Still Holding Up
Recent data suggests the economy is slowing only modestly, not collapsing.

·       Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% m/m in February, stronger than expected

·       Annual PPI accelerated to 3.4%

·       Homebuilder sentiment improved slightly in March

·       Pending home sales rose 1.8%

·       New home sales fell sharply to the lowest since 2022

This paints a mixed picture: inflation is still sticky, but the economy has not rolled over.

3️⃣ This Oil Shock ≠ the 1970s
While headlines are alarming, today’s oil shock is not a replay of 1970s‑style stagflation. Energy is only about 2% of U.S. consumer spending versus roughly 6% back then, so the hit to household wallets is smaller. The U.S. is now a net oil exporter, with domestic gas prices relatively shielded even as Europe and Asia face tighter supply, and shale producers benefit from higher crude. Globally, the economy is far less oil‑intensive, with much less energy needed per unit of GDP thanks to efficiency gains and the shift to services. Overall, this shock is growth‑negative and inflation‑positive, but the underlying fundamentals are stronger than in past oil panics.

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S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

S&P 500 sectors posted a clear risk-off week, with only Energy closing higher (+2.8%) amid elevated crude prices and rotation into oil names. Every other sector declined, led by Utilities (-4.9%) and Consumer Staples (-4.1%)—defensives that offered no refuge. Cyclicals and growth struggled too: Tech (-1.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-3.1%), Industrials (-2.9%), and Communication Services (-2.2%). The broad market (SPY) fell ~2.1%, with leadership narrowing sharply into Energy as the only bright spot.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

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Technical snapshot – major U.S. indices

U.S. three major indices confirmed heightened risk-off pressure: all three—SPX, DJI, and Nasdaq—broke their 200-day moving averages this week, a major bearish signal alarming bulls. SPX closed below its 200dma (~6,594) for the first time since last May and also snapped key support at ~6,550 on Friday, with Dow -2.1%, SPX -1.9%, COMP -2.1%. Bears now firmly in charge as rallies look capped until oil volatility eases.

📊 Weekly charts:

• DJI weekly chart
• SPX weekly chart
• Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Markets

Market Overview

China equities fell this week as rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions added to persistent concerns over weak domestic demand and limited policy support. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 2.19%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) dropped 3.38%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index edged down 0.74%.  

·       CSI 300: -2.19%

·       Shanghai Composite: -3.38%

·       Hang Seng Index: -0.74%

Key Highlights – China & Hong Kong

1️⃣ Activity data modestly beat expectations
China’s January–February activity data came in slightly better than expected, pointing to some early-year stabilization. Industrial production rose 6.3% y/y and retail sales increased 2.8%, both ahead of forecasts. Fixed asset investment grew 1.8%, supported mainly by infrastructure spending, though property investment remained weak.

2️⃣ Property market shows tentative stabilization
China’s property sector showed early signs of stabilizing in February. New home prices in 70 cities fell 0.28% m/m, improving from January’s 0.37% decline, while resale home prices saw the smallest drop in 10 months. Authorities continue to roll out selective support measures, including easing homebuying rules for non-residents in major cities.

3️⃣ Trade tensions resurface

U.S.-China trade tensions have resurfaced after Washington launched new Section 301 investigations into manufacturing policies and excess capacity in strategic sectors. The probe could lead to fresh tariffs on imports from China and several other economies as early as this summer. Beijing has urged dialogue but signaled it will defend its interests if needed.

4️⃣ Hong Kong faces oil shock and market volatility risks

Hong Kong could face higher oil-related inflation and increased market volatility if the Middle East conflict escalates further. As an import-dependent economy, the city is more exposed to energy supply disruptions and rising fuel costs. This may add pressure on sentiment, household spending, and broader financial markets.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

• SSE weekly chart
• HSI weekly chart

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🇸🇬 Singapore Market – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview
The Straits Times Index (STI) outperformed regional peers in Week 12, rising 2.2% to 4,948.87, even as most other benchmarks drifted lower amid oil-driven volatility and broader geopolitical uncertainty. The resilience was led by strength in Sembcorp Industries (+6.6%), Singtel (+5.0%), SGX (+4.8%) and the local banks — DBS (+3.8%), OCBC (+3.6%) and UOB (+2.8%). This reflects the STI’s relatively defensive market mix, with support from energy, telcos and financials, which helped cushion the broader market weakness. In short, it was a classic rotation trade: Singapore held up better thanks to sector leadership, while broader regional sentiment remained capped until crude price volatility eases.

Market Leaders

Outperformers:

• SCI: +6.59%
• SingTel: +5.04%

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot – STI
The STI registered a bullish crossover against its key moving averages during the week and closed above all major trend lines, suggesting bulls remain firmly in control for now. Technically, the setup stays constructive, but with regional markets turning weaker, investors should monitor the 50-day moving average near 4,863 as an important near-term support level in the coming week.

📊 Weekly chart:

• STI weekly chart

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and it will be removed if necessary.

 

Will Oil Break This Market?

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For the week ended Mar 13, 2026, global equities extended their pullback, as renewed conflict in Iran, surging oil back near or above 95–100 dollars a barrel, and fading hopes for early Fed rate cuts weighed on risk sentiment. Asian markets were generally softer, with Japan, Korea and Hong Kong all under pressure as investors digested the stronger dollar, elevated volatility (VIX near the high‑20s), and the risk that geopolitics could further delay monetary easing. 

U.S. Stocks – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview

U.S. equities declined for the third straight week, with the S&P 500(SPX), Dow(DJI) and Nasdaq(COMP) falling around 1.3%–2.0% as renewed conflict in Iran, surging oil back near or above 95–100 dollars a barrel, and fading hopes for early Fed rate cuts weighed on risk sentiment.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones: -1.99%

·       S&P 500: -1.60%

·       Nasdaq Composite: -1.26%

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Key Highlights for the Week and Outlook

1️⃣ Oil spike
WTI crude has surged more than 30% year‑to‑date and recently traded in the high‑70s to high‑80s as markets reacted to effective disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries around 20% of global seaborne oil and a significant share of LNG flows.

2️⃣ Inflation Improved
Heading into the latest oil spike, the inflation backdrop was improving: headline CPI had eased to around 2.4% and core to about 2.5% year over year, the lowest since 2021, as shelter costs gradually cooled. A sustained rise in energy prices from here could push headline inflation back above 3% even if core remains more contained, complicating—but not derailing—the disinflation narrative.

3️⃣ Fed FOMC meeting Mar 17-18
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at this week’s meeting, but the combination of firmer energy prices and sticky service inflation has already pushed markets to price a later and shallower easing cycle. Where investors once anticipated a series of cuts, current pricing implies only one or two reductions by the end of 2026, consistent with the idea of delay rather than cancellation of the easing path

4️⃣ Growth resilience
Global PMI data remain in expansion territory, with the J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI around the mid‑50s equivalent and consistent with roughly 2.5%–2.6% annualized global GDP growth—below the pre‑pandemic trend, but clearly not recessionary. That backdrop supports the view that the world economy entered this shock with decent momentum, even if growth is running in a lower gear.

5️⃣ U.S. oil‑shock sensitivity
The U.S. economy is structurally less exposed to oil shocks than in past cycles: the country has been a net total energy exporter since 2019, and a larger share of output now comes from services rather than heavy industry, making overall energy intensity lower than in prior decades.

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S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

U.S. sectors posted a mixed but broadly risk‑off week, with only Energy and Utilities finishing higher while cyclical and growth areas lagged. Energy was the clear outperformer, rising 2.0% as investors rotated into oil‑linked names amid elevated crude prices, while Utilities also eked out a small gain. The broad market (SPY) fell about 1.5%, with the weakest performance coming from Financials (-3.32%), Consumer Discretionary (-3.13%), Industrials (-3.11%) and Communication Services (-2.56%), underscoring pressure on cyclicals and rate‑sensitive sectors.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

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Technical snapshot – major U.S. indices

For the week, all three major U.S. benchmarks—Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq—closed lower, confirming a broad-based corrective phase rather than a narrow tech-driven pullback. with the Dow dropping 2.0% (worst performer), S&P 500 -1.6%, and Nasdaq -1.3% (most resilient). Dow's outsized decline reflects cyclical/value selling; S&P shows broad distribution per your sector data; Nasdaq holds up on growth/AI favoritism. Classic risk-off action amid oil shock and fading rate-cut hopes—rallies likely capped until volatility eases.

📊 Weekly charts:

• DJI weekly chart
• SPX weekly chart
• Nasdaq weekly chart

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China / Hong Kong Markets

Market Overview

Chinese equities were mixed over the week. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index edged 0.19%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) retreated 0.70%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 1.13%. Overall resilience despite global volatility.

·       CSI 300: +0.19%

·       Shanghai Composite: -0.70%

·       Hang Seng Index: -1.13%

Key Highlights – China & Hong Kong

1️⃣ Inflation Acceleration
Consumer inflation in China hit its fastest pace in over three years, with the CPI rising 1.3% year-over-year in February, driven by Chinese New Year holiday demand for travel and tourism services. Core inflation climbed to 1.8% YoY—the highest since March 2019—indicating firmer underlying price pressures. Producer prices stayed in deflation for the 41st straight month but saw the mildest decline since July 2024, aided by rising metals and oil costs.

2️⃣ Robust Export Surge
China's exports jumped 21.8% in January-February combined (to smooth CNY effects), far exceeding forecasts, fueled by global AI/tech demand for electronics despite U.S. trade declines offset by gains to Europe and Southeast Asia. Imports rose 19.8%, pushing the trade surplus to a record $213.6 billion and signaling strong external demand amid resilient domestic absorption.

3️⃣ AI agent boosts Chinese technology stocks

Chinese tech stocks rallied on adoption of OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent enabling autonomous task execution and marking a shift from chatbots to decision-making systems. Gains moderated as banks, brokerages, and government entities issued usage cautions and restricted employee access, tempering near-term enthusiasm for early adopters and infrastructure plays.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

• SSE weekly chart
• HSI weekly chart

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Singapore Market – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview
The Straits Times Index (STI) edged down 0.12% to 4,842.27, a shallow pullback from February peaks above 5,000 amid global oil volatility—resilient relative to U.S./HK declines. Commodities led: Wilmar International surged 8.88% on palm oil/China demand; DFI Retail +8.06%, Hongkong Land +5.13% on property rotation.

Market Leaders

Outperformers:

• Wilmar (F34): +8.88%
• DFI Retail (D01): +8.06%

Banks Anchor Resilience

Big three banks held defensive: DBS +0.56%, UOB +0.25%, OCBC -0.91%—steady NIMs/dividends offsetting rate pressures, comprising ~50% index weight.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot – STI
The STI remains in a strong primary uptrend on a multi‑month view, even after snapping its nine‑week winning streak. It closed just above its 50‑day MA around 4,846, suggesting the current move is still a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed trend change.

The STI maintains its primary uptrend on multi-month charts despite a three-week retreat, closing at 4,842.27—precisely at its 50-day moving average, confirming consolidation rather than reversal. The index has had a shallow 1.95% monthly pullback from the February all-time high of 5,041, Key support at c.4,800 holds firm; a break below risks 4,700, but resilient bank weights and commodity rotation suggest rallies toward 4,850 resistance remain viable within the uptrend.

📊 Weekly chart:

• STI weekly chart

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and it will be removed if necessary.

Markets Down Amid War on Iran and Rising Energy Prices

 

Markets Down amid War on Iran and  Rising Energy Prices

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For the week ended Mar 6, 2026, Oil prices have surged roughly 30% since the start of 2026 as the Iran conflict escalated, with Brent recently trading near the low‑80s and briefly spiking in early March. Major U.S. equity markets were down between about 2% and 5% for the week, while many international and emerging‑market equity benchmarks saw deeper pullbacks in the mid‑single to low‑double‑digit range. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield climbed roughly 20 basis points as investors repriced inflation and rate‑cut expectations.

🇺🇸 U.S. Stocks – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished lower on a stagflationary mix of geopolitics, an oil spike and a weak payrolls report. Middle East escalation, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, raised fears of renewed inflation and higher‑for‑longer rates. Softer labour data added growth worries, turning “bad news” into risk‑off rather than “more cuts” optimism.

Oil prices jumped on fears of supply disruption and shipping risk around the Strait of Hormuz, complicating the Fed’s task just as labour momentum cools. This weaker‑growth and higher‑inflation combo hit both stocks and bonds. Of the major equity indexes, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index(DJI) performed worst, followed by the S&P 500 Index(SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite(COMP).

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones: −3.01%

·       S&P 500: −2.02%

·       Nasdaq Composite: -1.24%

 

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Key Highlights for the Week and Outlook

1️⃣ Geopolitical shock, oil spike, inflation fears
Escalating conflict in the Middle East after strikes on Iran sent oil sharply higher, with Brent up about 30% YTD. When key routes like the Strait of Hormuz are at risk, markets tend to react quickly through energy prices.

What worries investors now is duration. A prolonged conflict could keep oil elevated, squeeze real incomes and pressure margins. Some analysts have flagged the risk of crude retesting 100 if disruptions deepen, which would be a more serious headwind. 

2️⃣ Feb payrolls disappoint, but not yet recession
U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell 92k in Feb vs expectations for a modest gain. Prior months were revised lower, and three‑month job creation has slowed sharply, showing clear cooling in the labour market. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, still low historically but moving off cycle lows.

Normally, weak jobs data would support earlier Fed cuts. This time, the oil shock and inflation risk are offsetting that effect. Markets are more cautious about assuming “soft data = aggressive easing” when energy is pushing headline inflation higher. 

3️⃣ Fed’s balancing act gets harder
Higher oil is likely to feed into headline CPI via gasoline and broader energy costs. With inflation still above the 2% target, the Fed may hesitate to cut aggressively if energy‑driven price pressures re‑emerge, especially while wage and services inflation remain sticky.

Rate markets have already priced in fewer cuts and pushed expectations later into 2026. The Fed is now even more data‑dependent, needing evidence that both core and headline inflation are easing despite the oil spike. 

4️⃣  ISM data still show expansion
Despite the risk‑off tone, ISM data remain constructive. Manufacturing PMI printed 52.4 in Feb, back in expansion territory, while services are also comfortably above 50. Together, they point to ongoing growth, even as hiring slows and geopolitics darken near‑term sentiment.

5️⃣ Oil would need to stay much higher to derail growth
The U.S. economy is less oil‑intensive than in the past, and domestic production offers a buffer. Energy is a smaller slice of GDP and household budgets than in prior oil crises, which reduces the hit from price spikes.

Given today’s structure, it likely takes a larger and more sustained move in oil to truly derail the cycle. If crude stabilises below extreme levels, this episode may be remembered more as a volatility shock than a lasting turning point. 

6️⃣ Near‑term vol high, medium‑term still constructive

With no clear sign of de‑escalation yet, further vol in the near term is likely. Geopolitical shocks, however, have often proved sharp but temporary once risk premia reset and supply routes adapt.

Beyond the noise, the macro backdrop is still reasonably supportive: earnings are improving from last year’s trough, many global activity indicators are in expansion, and structural themes like AI, automation and productivity remain intact. 

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S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Energy (XLE) was the only sector up on the week, as it directly benefits from higher crude. Communication Services (XLC), Tech (XLK) and Financials (XLF) slipped a moderate 0.5%–1.7%, reflecting risk‑off but not capitulation.

Materials (XLB), Consumer Staples (XLP) and Healthcare (XLV) were the laggards, down about 4.6%–6.7%, as investors took profit in prior defensives and rotated into energy and cash.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

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Technical snapshot – major U.S. indices

All three major indices are now negative YTD, having given back their 2026 gains. SPX is firmly below its 20‑ and 50‑day MAs, closing at its lowest since the week of 17 Nov, with a YTD return of about −1.54%.

The Dow has also erased its YTD gain and is at its lowest since the week of 24 Nov, with roughly −1.17% YTD. The Nasdaq sits at a three‑week low and is the weakest of the three at −3.68% YTD, reflecting its higher rate sensitivity.

📊 Weekly charts:

• DJI weekly chart
• SPX weekly chart
• Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Markets

Market Overview

Chinese equities retreated over the week as investors weighed the escalating Middle East conflict and higher oil prices against Beijing’s latest policy messaging at the National People’s Congress. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 1.07%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) declined 0.93%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index dropped 3.28% as risk sentiment deteriorated across the region.

·       CSI 300: -1.07%

·       Shanghai Composite: -0.93%

·       Hang Seng Index: -3.28%

Key Highlights – China & Hong Kong

1️⃣ Beijing lowers growth ambitions modestly
China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5%, a step‑down that signals acceptance of slower but “higher‑quality” growth as the new five‑year cycle begins. It is another move towards more realistic, flexible targets. 

2️⃣ Domestic demand remains a top priority
Premier Li Qiang reiterated the need to boost domestic demand and investment amid global uncertainty. Measures include more special‑purpose bond issuance and ultra‑long sovereign debt to support infra, strategic sectors and local government financing. 

3️⃣ Factory data send mixed signals

Official manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction around 49.0, showing ongoing pressure on larger, state‑linked firms. The private Caixin index, however, rose above 52, suggesting smaller and export‑oriented firms are doing better, helped by targeted support and a weaker currency.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

• SSE weekly chart
• HSI weekly chart

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🇸🇬 Singapore Market – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview
The Straits Times Index (STI) saw a mild move on the day but a notable pullback on the week as it continued to consolidate after a strong multi‑week rally. The index closed around 4,848 on March 6, essentially flat on the session but down about 2–3% over the past month as profit‑taking set in.

JMH, SIA and SATS were among the top losers. On the upside, ST Engineering, DFI Retail and SingTel outperformed, reflecting selective interest in industrials, defensives and telcos.

Market Leaders

Outperformers:

• ST Engineering (S63): +9.83%
• DFI Retail (D01): +3.58% 

Banks:

• DBS (D05): -3.71% 
• OCBC (O39): -2.85% 
• UOB (U11): -2.43% 

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot – STI

The STI remains in a strong primary uptrend on a multi‑month view, even after snapping its nine‑week winning streak. It closed just above its 50‑day MA around 4,846, suggesting the current move is still a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed trend change.

📊 Weekly chart:

• STI weekly chart

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and it will be removed if necessary.

 

U.S.-Israel Strike Iran, Killing Khamenei; Markets Brace for Turbulent Week Ahead

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🇺🇸 U.S. Stocks – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview

For the week ended 27 Feb 2026, U.S. equities finished lower as mounting concerns over AI-driven disruption risks and renewed global trade uncertainty kept risk appetite in check. The selling was broad-based, though the S&P 500 held up relatively better than the Dow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) led declines, shedding 1.31%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 0.44%. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) also ended lower, weighed down by weakness in technology and semiconductor names after NVIDIA's consensus-beating results failed to reverse the prevailing risk-off tone.

A widely circulated research report on AI disruption risks triggered a sharp Monday selloff, setting the tone for the week. Despite some stabilisation mid-week ahead of NVIDIA's earnings, indexes ultimately closed lower. The week's silver lining came from U.S. Treasuries, where the benchmark 10-year yield dipped below 4% for the first time since November — a signal that bond markets may be pricing in slower growth and increased odds of Fed rate cuts ahead.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones: −1.31% – led declines as sentiment soured on AI disruption fears and trade uncertainty.

·       S&P 500: −0.44% – held up best among major indexes despite the broadly risk-off week.

·       Nasdaq Composite: -0.95% – dragged lower by tech and chipmaker weakness despite NVIDIA's strong earnings print.

(Refer to the major indices’ monthly performance tables for Feb 2026 below.) 

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Key Highlights for the Week and Outlook

1️⃣ AI disruption fears rattle markets
Equities sold off Monday after a sell-side report highlighted AI's industry disruption and white-collar job risks, sparking debate on adoption pace vs. job creation. History shows tech revolutions (electrification, PCs) bring short-term pain but long-term productivity and new roles—60% of today's jobs didn't exist in 1940.

2️⃣ NVIDIA beats but fails to lift sentiment
NVIDIA reported record revenue and strong AI infrastructure guidance, yet shares fell ~5% amid scepticism on capex returns. Global AI spending projected in high hundreds of billions USD for 2026 (up sharply from 2025); no euphoria suggests no bubble yet.

3️⃣ PPI accelerates unexpectedly
BLS: Jan PPI +0.5% m/m (beat 0.3% est., Dec rev +0.4%), services +0.8% (largest since Jul 2025); YoY 2.9%. Factory orders fell 0.7% in Dec (aircraft-led), reinforcing Fed caution on cuts.

4️⃣ Consumer confidence edges higher; labour market steady
Conference Board: Feb confidence +2.2pts to 91.2 (still below Nov 2024 peak 112.8). Jobless claims 212k (week to 21 Feb); continuing claims 1.833m—low hiring/firing persists.

5️⃣ 10-year yield breaks below 4%
Risk-off drove Treasury rally; 10-year yield hit ~3.95–3.97% (first sub-4% since Nov), signaling bond market bets on slower growth or Fed cuts later 2026.

6️⃣ 🚨 BREAKING: U.S. and Israel Launch Major Strikes on Iran — Markets Brace for Turbulent Monday Open

On Saturday 28 Feb, the U.S. and Israel launched a coordinated joint assault on Iran. What to watch on Monday:

🛢️ Oil — Brent near $73/bbl Friday; futures expected to surge $5–$7/bbl at open. Key wildcard: Strait of Hormuz (20% of global supply). A closure could push oil above $100.

🪙 Gold & safe havens — Gold (up ~22% in 2026, above $5,296/oz) expected to gap higher. Treasuries, yen, and Swiss franc to rally. OCBC's Christopher Wong: "Gold likely to see an upside gap, oil to firm on supply-disruption concerns."

🛡️ Defence — LMT, RTX, NOC, BA positioned to benefit, though gains could reverse quickly if conflict is contained.

⛽ Energy — XOM, CVX are tactical buys. Vantage Point CIO Nick Ferres: "Energy is still inexpensive. That's the obvious sector that rallies on Monday. And gold."

✈️ Airlines — Gulf airspace closures to weigh on carriers with Middle East exposure, including Singapore Airlines. 

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S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher

Outperformers:

• Consumer Staples (XLP) – defensive rotation amid risk-off sentiment.
• Utilities (XLU) – yield drop and growth fears boosted rate-sensitive defensives.
• Health Care (XLV) – resilient fundamentals in volatile market.

Laggards:

• Financials (XLF) – tariff/trade worries weighed on cyclicals.
• Technology (XLT) – AI capex scepticism and NVIDIA reaction hit semis/tech.
• Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – risk-off curbed spending‑sensitive names.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

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Technical snapshot – major U.S. indices

• S&P 500 (SPX): Pulled back from recent highs but holds above key near-term support at 6,800; bulls vs bears standoff, with breakout above 7,000 signalling upside. Narrow 4‑month range masks underlying dispersion.
• Nasdaq Composite (COMP): Under pressure as tech/AI names test short-term MAs amid NVIDIA digestion.
• Dow Jones (DJI): Led weekly declines as risk-off rotation weighed on industrials and cyclicals.

📊 Weekly charts:

• DJI weekly chart
• SPX weekly chart
• Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Markets

Market Overview

Mainland Chinese stock markets rose in an abbreviated trading week as risk sentiment improved, and broader market participation returned following the Chinese New Year break and ahead of the upcoming “Two Sessions” meetings. Leaders typically set key economic goals at the annual legislative gathering. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index advanced 1.08%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) rose 1.98%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 0.82%.

·       CSI 300: +1.08%

·       Shanghai Composite: +1.98%

·       Hang Seng Index: +0.82%

Key Highlights – China & Hong Kong

1️⃣ Chinese New Year tourism rebounds but per-trip spending dips
Travel data over the nine-day Chinese New Year holiday offered mixed signals on Chinese consumer sentiment. Total tourism spending rose to 803.5 billion yuan (approximately USD 117.4 billion). However, per-trip spending dipped marginally, raising questions about the durability of consumption growth.

2️⃣ Shanghai relaxes homebuying rules
Shanghai eased restrictions: non-residents eligible after 1yr social security/tax payments (down from 3yr); 3yr contributions now allow second homes, supporting property stabilisation.

3️⃣ PBOC acts to slow yuan's rapid appreciation

PBOC cut FX forward risk reserve ratio to 0% from 20% (eff 2 Mar) to moderate RMB's rapid rise after hitting near 3-year high vs USD, targeting stable exchange rate.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

• SSE weekly chart
• HSI weekly chart

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🇸🇬 Singapore Market – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview
The Straits Times Index (STI) snapped its nine-week winning streak, recording its first weekly loss of 2026 for the week ended 27 Feb. The index closed at 4,995.07, shedding 0.45% for the week and finishing just a few points below the psychologically important 5,000 level. The retreat came after the STI posted a fresh intra-week all-time high of 5,041.33 on Monday 23 Feb, suggesting near-term exhaustion after a powerful and extended run.

The week's softness was led by the three banking heavyweights — DBS, UOB, and OCBC — which collectively weigh around 50% of the index. All three reported strong FY2025 results, yet share prices declined as investors pivoted from backward-looking record profits to forward concerns over narrowing net interest margins and the prospect of rate cuts — a classic "sell on results" dynamic.

Market Leaders

Outperformers:

• YZJ Shipbuilding (BS6): +16.35% – the standout performer of the week, surging on stellar FY2025 results announced on 25–26 Feb. Net profit rose 30.2% year-on-year to a record RMB 8.6 billion on revenue of RMB 28.5 billion. The group maintained a 35% shipbuilding margin, declared a higher-than-expected 50% dividend payout (5.5% yield). CGS International raised its target price to S$4.95, reiterating 'Add'.
• Seatrium (5E2): +11.11% - surged after FY2025 net profit doubled to S$323.6 million, driven by margin expansion and stronger oil and gas and offshore-wind revenue. The group raised its final dividend to S$0.03 and continued its share buyback programme.
• JMH USD (J36): +5.43% – outperformed ahead of its full-year results due 5 Mar, reflecting broad value rotation and pre-results positioning. The Asia-focused conglomerate has staged a sharp recovery, rising nearly 93% over the past twelve months.

Banks:

• DBS (D05): -1.50% – despite record FY2025 results, shares retreated as management guided for 2026 net profit to edge lower amid NIM headwinds. The April 8 ex-dividend date remains a near-term anchor for yield investors.
• UOB (U11): -4.22% – the steepest weekly decline among the local banks, with the market focused on NIM compression guidance of 1.75%–1.80% for 2026 and softening net interest income prospects.
• OCBC (O39): -1.34% – a modest pullback post-FY2025 results despite strong wealth management fee income and the full consolidation of Great Eastern. The bank reiterated its two-year S$2.5 billion capital-return plan.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot – STI

The STI remains in a strong primary uptrend, but the first weekly decline of 2026 is a near-term yellow flag after nine consecutive weeks of gains. The "failed breakout" at the 5,041.33 all-time high before closing back below 5,000 warrants attention. Short-term indicators are rolling over from overbought conditions, suggesting further consolidation before the next leg higher. Key near-term support lies in the 4,950–5,000 zone. The primary uptrend remains intact — the index is still up over 7% year-to-date — and pullbacks should attract buyers in quality banks, industrials, and defensive yield plays.

📊 Weekly chart:

• STI weekly chart

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