Higher Yields, Higher Tech: Markets Diverge This Week

For the week of Sep 25, global equities diverged as a relentless bond sell-off collided with unshaken AI optimism. In the U.S., a stronger-than-expected PMI print and hawkish Fed rhetoric drove Treasury yields to multi-decade highs, yet resilient tech and communication-services names kept the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in positive territory for the week. China and Hong Kong equities slipped as elevated yields, a Mid-Autumn holiday-shortened trading week, and fading hopes for a broader U.S.-China breakthrough weighed on sentiment, even as AI and pharma names bucked the trend. Singapore stocks extended their weekly advance, with the Straits Times Index rising on strength in banks and industrials though remaining below its early-September record close.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities notched a second straight weekly gain even as a punishing sell-off in Treasuries pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in two decades. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.28%, the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 1.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) jumped 2.06%, with strength concentrated in technology and communication-services names riding excitement around agentic AI. Weak Treasury auctions and hawkish Fed commentary sent the 30-year yield above 5.5% and the 10-year above 5.2%, widening credit spreads even as resilient jobless-claims data underscored a still-firm labor market.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.28%

-  S&P 500 (SPX): +1.21%

-  Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +2.06%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Business Activity Hits 62-Month High

S&P Global's flash September composite PMI jumped to 58.4 from 58.0, the fastest pace in over five years. Services led at 58.7, a 59-month high, while manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.0. S&P Global noted the reading implies economic growth of roughly 4% this quarter.

2️⃣ Bond Sell-Off Sends Yields to Multi-Decade Highs

A five-year Treasury auction priced at 5.033%, the highest since 2006, while seven-year notes cleared 7 basis points above pre-auction levels. The 30-year yield topped 5.5%, its highest since 2004, and the 10-year briefly touched 5.2% as hawkish Fed commentary and tariff-related inflation fears weighed on demand.

3️⃣ AI Optimism Keeps Tech Rally Alive

Strong consumer uptake of Meta's new AI agent fueled excitement over agentic AI and its implications for computing infrastructure demand. Technology and communication-services stocks outperformed, helping the Nasdaq shrug off the broader rate backdrop.

4️⃣ Credit Spreads Widen as Loans Hold Firm

Investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads widened alongside the Treasury rout. The leveraged loan market was a bright spot, however, attracting meaningful inflows as floating-rate assets benefited from rising rate-hike expectations.

5️⃣ Labor Market Stays Resilient

Initial jobless claims came in at 197,000, below the 201,000 consensus, while continuing claims of 1.72 million also undershot expectations of 1.75 million. A still-firm labor market gives the Fed room to stay hawkish on inflation.

6️⃣ Small Caps Lag as Growth Outpaces Value

Growth stocks outperformed value within the large-cap universe, while the small-cap Russell 2000 pulled back as higher rates weighed disproportionately on smaller, more rate-sensitive companies.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Technology led S&P 500 sector performance for a second straight week, powered by continued enthusiasm around agentic AI and strong consumer uptake of Meta's new AI agent. Communication services and health care also posted solid gains, while defensive and rate-sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the bond sell-off. Utilities and energy were the clear laggards, with financials and real estate also under pressure as higher borrowing costs weighed on valuations. (Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 held its short-term uptrend despite the bond-market volatility, closing near 7,743 after gaining 1.21% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite's AI-driven advance pushed it further up, hit intra-week record at 27,288, while the Dow lagged as rate-sensitive cyclicals underperformed. With yields still climbing, SPX, Nasdaq, and DJI charts continue to show a sideways-to-higher consolidation, with prior swing-low support likely to be tested if the Treasury sell-off extends into next week.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weekly chart

- SPX weekly chart

- Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China and Hong Kong equities retreated for the week, with mainland shares closed Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival and Hong Kong extending losses into the close. The CSI 300 fell 1.51% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 0.60% through Thursday, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) slipped 0.97%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.1% on Friday alone as AI-related, auto, and gaming shares led losses. Early-week strength in health care and property faded as elevated U.S. Treasury yields, firm oil prices, and diminishing hopes for a broader U.S.-China trade breakthrough weighed on sentiment, even as an extension of the trade truce to January offered some support. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-  CSI 300: -1.51%

-  Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.60%

-  Hang Seng Index (HSI): -0.97%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ U.S.-China Trade Truce Extended to January

Washington and Beijing agreed to extend their trade truce by two months to January 10, 2027, preserving the current framework as talks continue. The U.S. continued pressing China over implementation of prior commitments on agricultural purchases and rare-earth flows.

2️⃣ Mid-Autumn Holiday Distorts Trading

Mainland markets were closed Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite reflecting Thursday's close. Early-week gains in health care, property, and select technology names reversed as growth stocks weakened into Thursday's sell-off.

3️⃣ AI and Pharma Names Buck the Trend

Tencent, WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and CSPC Pharma posted strong weekly gains on AI-monetisation optimism and a growing innovative-drug pipeline, with Innovent Biologics also outperforming even as the broader index fell.

4️⃣ Hong Kong Exports Surge on AI Demand

Hong Kong's August exports jumped 53% year-on-year to HKD667.9 billion, the second-highest monthly value on record, extending a 50.7% surge in July as AI-related electronics demand stayed robust.

5️⃣ Autos and EV Supply Chain Lead Decliners

BYD, BYD Electronic, and battery-materials names such as Zijin Mining and Aluminum Corporation of China led losses, alongside travel and consumer names including Trip.com and Haidilao, as growth-sensitive sectors underperformed.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index slipped toward the 24,500 level, its lowest close since mid Jul, as broad-based selling in autos, EVs, and travel names outweighed strength in AI and pharma. The Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed the broader benchmark, falling 1.1% on Friday alone as investors rotated out of growth-sensitive names. With mainland markets closed for the National Day Golden Week from October 1, HSI volumes are likely to stay thin and choppy over the coming week.

HSI Constituents – Weekly Gainers

Pharmaceutical and AI-related names led the HSI's advancers, with WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and CSPC Pharma among the top gainers as investors rotated into China's innovative-drug and AI-adjacent plays. Tencent added on continued AI-monetisation optimism, while New Oriental and Innovent Biologics also posted solid weekly gains. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers

Week 39, 26 Sep 2026

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	24,510.09	-0.97%	-4.37%
2269	WuXi Bio	53.00	+5.26%	+68.58%
2359	WuXi AppTec	209.60	+4.80%	+112.36%
1093	CSPC Pharma	9.33	+4.48%	+10.68%
700	TencentHTCD	436.60	+4.20%	-27.11%
9901	New Oriental	44.88	+3.79%	+6.25%
1801	Innovent Bio	99.70	+3.21%	+30.75%
1876	Budweiser APAC	6.04	+1.86%	-20.49%
1177	Sino Biopharm	5.57	+1.83%	-9.87%
688	COLI	12.42	+1.80%	+1.39%
6160	BeOne Medicines	216.40	+1.79%	+20.69%
12	Henderson Land	26.22	+1.00%	-6.82%
291	CR Beer	18.40	+0.99%	-29.82%
836	CR Power	18.99	+0.53%	+9.71%
1398	ICBC	7.51	+0.20%	+19.48%
1997	Wharf REIC	30.54	+0.20%	+24.25%
388	HKEX	388.40	+0.10%	-4.71%
1	CK Hutchison	67.95	+0.07%	+28.33%
1109	CR Land	28.64	+0.00%	+5.29%
1044	Hengan	19.70	+0.00%	-29.39%
823	Link REIT	37.02	+0.00%	+6.56%

SgTraderClub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 39

HSI Constituents – Weekly Decliners

Consumer, auto, and EV supply-chain names dominated the decliners list, with Zhongsheng, AliHealth, China Hongqiao, and Longfor Properties among the weakest performers. BYD, BYD Electronic, and battery-materials plays such as Zijin Mining and Aluminum Corporation of China also came under pressure, alongside travel and leisure names including Trip.com and Haidilao. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners

Week 39, 26 Sep 2026

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	24,510.09	-0.97%	-4.37%
3988	Bank of ChinaHBND	5.98	-0.08%	+34.08%
1038	CK Infra	65.30	-0.15%	+13.37%
3	HK & China Gas	7.08	-0.21%	+0.93%
1113	CK Asset	46.00	-0.39%	+16.99%
9633	Nongfu Spring	38.40	-0.52%	-18.02%
16	Sun Hung Kai	107.10	-0.56%	+13.09%
939	CCB	9.54	-0.57%	+23.99%
2020	ANTA Sports	71.20	-0.70%	-11.61%
1929	Chow Tai Fook	10.97	-0.72%	-11.46%
941	China MobileHCMD	78.45	-0.76%	-3.98%
267	CITIC	12.94	-0.77%	+7.30%
316	OOIL	145.10	-0.82%	+15.71%
9988	AlibabaHBBD	108.40	-0.82%	-24.09%
857	PetroChinaHPCD	9.41	-0.84%	+12.29%
883	CNOOC	23.40	-0.85%	+9.86%
1099	Sinopharm	14.88	-0.93%	-23.46%
2318	Ping AnHPAD	52.70	-0.94%	-19.11%
728	China Telecom	4.39	-1.01%	-18.55%
669	Techtronic	127.00	-1.09%	+41.27%
66	MTR Corp	32.62	-1.09%	+9.46%
992	Lenovo	37.16	-1.12%	+301.30%
6	Power Assets	59.15	-1.17%	+7.25%
9618	JD.comHJDD	103.70	-1.24%	-7.08%
2319	China Mengniu Dairy	17.53	-1.35%	+17.57%
3968	CM Bank	50.50	-1.37%	-4.36%
1209	CR Mixc	37.00	-1.44%	-13.83%
9999	NetEase	180.90	-1.47%	-15.70%
2	CLP Holdings	76.30	-1.48%	+9.63%
288	WH Group	6.50	-1.51%	-24.97%
1088	China Shenhua	43.76	-1.57%	+12.78%
2388	BOC Hong Kong	51.15	-1.73%	+29.76%
101	Hang Lung Prop.	6.49	-1.74%	-24.68%
2688	ENN Energy	48.76	-1.85%	-29.54%
386	Sinopec	4.42	-1.88%	-5.25%
1810	XiaomiHXXD	25.90	-1.89%	-34.10%
9992	Pop MartHPPD	152.10	-1.93%	-18.97%
3690	MeituanHMTD	71.65	-2.12%	-30.64%
175	GeelyHGMD	15.60	-2.13%	-12.85%
9888	BaiduHBUD	85.30	-2.18%	-35.13%
3692	Hansoh	33.52	-2.27%	-7.10%
1024	KuaishouHKUD	30.02	-2.34%	-53.06%
5	HSBCHSHD	157.60	-2.48%	+28.76%
762	China Unicom	5.58	-2.62%	-28.28%
2331	Li Ning	12.24	-2.63%	-34.44%
1928	Sands China	11.91	-2.70%	-39.23%
2628	China Life	28.58	-2.72%	+4.38%
2313	Shenzhou Intl	34.08	-2.74%	-44.31%
981	SMICHSMD	63.35	-2.76%	-11.34%
1519	J&T Global Express	8.72	-2.79%	-16.51%
27	Galaxy Ent.	31.70	-2.82%	-17.28%
322	Tingyi	11.37	-2.99%	-3.56%
9961	Trip.comHTGD	309.20	-3.19%	-44.19%
2382	Sunny Optical	64.90	-3.21%	-0.99%
6618	JD Health	35.08	-3.31%	-36.79%
1299	AIA Group	73.75	-3.91%	-7.70%
6690	Haier	19.77	-3.94%	-18.57%
300	Midea	95.35	-3.98%	+12.24%
2618	JD Logistics	10.04	-4.11%	-12.08%
1211	BYDHYDD	78.10	-4.17%	-18.09%
6862	Haidilao	9.08	-4.47%	-36.28%
868	Xinyi Glass	7.96	-4.61%	-3.75%
285	BYD Electronic	22.66	-4.71%	-32.64%
2899	Zijin Mining	32.50	-4.80%	-8.86%
2015	Li Auto	45.24	-4.88%	-30.24%
2600	Aluminum Corp China	7.69	-5.30%	-36.81%
2057	ZTO Express	153.20	-6.01%	-5.61%
968	Xinyi Solar	1.92	-6.11%	-35.35%
960	Longfor	5.33	-6.16%	-37.73%
1378	China Hongqiao	20.72	-6.33%	-36.48%
241	AliHealth	2.83	-7.83%	-44.06%
881	Zhongsheng	2.90	-8.23%	-75.04%

SgTraderClub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 39

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weekly chart

- HSI weekly chart

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore shares extended their weekly advance, with the Straits Times Index (STI) rising 0.97% to close at 5,711.12, up 22.92% year-to-date but still shy of the index's record close of 5,801.96 set on 4 September 2026. Gains were broad-based, led by DFI Retail Group, ST Engineering, and the three local banks, while REITs and rate-sensitive trusts lagged as elevated global bond yields weighed on yield plays.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Straits Times Index (STI): +0.97%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Extends Gains, Banks and Industrials Lead

The STI rose 0.97% to 5,711.12, up 22.92% year-to-date though still below its 4 September record close of 5,801.96, led by DFI Retail Group (+5.77%), ST Engineering (+4.22%), and CityDevelopments, with all three local banks also posting solid weekly gains.

2️⃣ CSE Global Lands Fresh U.S. Electrification Orders

CSE Global secured two U.S. electrification order wins worth US$150m spanning LNG and data-centre power infrastructure, deepening its hyperscaler ties. CGS International reiterated its Add rating with an unchanged S$1.95 target price.

3️⃣ Corporate Actions in Focus

Keppel placed its Shanghai unit, Shuju Info Tech, under members' voluntary liquidation, Addvalue Technologies won shareholder approval to spin off and list its space-connectivity business on Nasdaq, and Far East Orchard agreed to acquire a London development site for S$102m.

4️⃣ REITs Underperform on Rate Pressure

Rate-sensitive REITs and trusts, including CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, and Mapletree Industrial Trust, led decliners as elevated U.S. Treasury yields continued to weigh on yield plays.

Technical Snapshot

The Straits Times Index closed at 5,711.12, extending its weekly advance while remaining comfortably above its 50-day moving average, though still roughly 1.6% below the record close of 5,801.96 set on 4 September 2026. Breadth was constructive, with roughly half of constituents ending the week higher, led by DFI Retail Group and ST Engineering. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance

Week 39, 26 Sep 2026

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
STI ★	STI ★	5,711.12	+0.97%	+22.92%
D01	DFI Retail USD	3.30	+5.77%	-16.46%
S63	ST Engineering	10.87	+4.22%	+29.10%
C09	CityDev	8.26	+2.61%	+3.25%
BN4	Keppel	11.30	+2.45%	+9.18%
C6L	SIA	6.65	+2.15%	+3.91%
O39	OCBC	32.01	+2.01%	+61.99%
U11	UOB	42.57	+1.89%	+21.42%
D05	DBS	78.00	+1.48%	+38.40%
V03	Venture	16.72	+1.33%	+10.44%
S68	SGX	22.40	+0.90%	+32.08%
N2IU	Mapletree PACT	1.22	+0.83%	-17.01%
S58	SATS	3.83	+0.52%	+0.52%
BS6	YZJ Ship SGD	5.19	+0.39%	+49.14%
U14	UOL	8.46	+0.12%	-3.20%
9CI	CapLand Invest	2.60	+0.00%	-4.06%
G13	Genting Sing	0.61	+0.00%	-15.17%
M44U	Mapletree Log Tr	1.10	+0.00%	-16.67%
Y92	ThaiBev	0.44	+0.00%	-4.35%
F34	Wilmar	3.68	+0.00%	+19.48%
U96	Sembcorp Ind	5.87	-0.51%	-2.49%
H78	HK Land USD	8.57	-0.81%	+23.31%
5E2	Seatrium	2.10	-0.94%	-2.78%
AJBU	Keppel DC REIT	2.12	-1.40%	-5.78%
Z74	Singtel	4.28	-1.61%	-5.93%
C38U	CapLand IntCom Tr	2.24	-2.18%	-6.28%
J69U	Frasers CT	2.05	-2.38%	-12.02%
A17U	CapAscendas REIT	2.28	-2.56%	-19.43%
ME8U	Mapletree Ind Tr	1.86	-2.62%	-10.58%
BUOU	Frasers L&C Tr	0.87	-2.79%	-12.56%
J36	JMH USD	55.86	-2.92%	-18.32%

SgTraderClub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 39

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (28 Sep – 2 Oct 2026)

In the U.S., the week is dominated by the September jobs report due Friday, alongside JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge and a third estimate of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. With the flash PMI already flagging an economic acceleration, investors will watch whether payrolls and ISM data confirm strength or start to show cracks from the recent spike in borrowing costs.

Mainland Chinese markets shut for the National Day Golden Week from October 1 through October 7, thinning regional liquidity and leaving Hong Kong to trade largely on its own. Investors will track any follow-through from the U.S.-China trade truce extension and further AI-monetisation developments at Tencent, Alibaba, and other index heavyweights.

Singapore's manufacturing PMI for September is due in the first days of October and will be watched for signs of continued expansion. With the STI still trading roughly 1.6% below its 4 September record close, attention turns to corporate newsflow from CSE Global, Keppel, and other index constituents, alongside the region's response to still-elevated U.S. Treasury yields.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest swing factor remains the direction of U.S. Treasury yields: with the 10-year above 5.2% and the 30-year above 5.5%, a further leg higher into Friday's payrolls report could tighten financial conditions sharply and threaten the AI-led equity rally, while any stabilisation would likely extend risk appetite across all three markets.

 

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Hawkish Hike: Oil Spikes, AI Steadies Markets

For the week of Sep 18, global equities traded with a cautious, headline-driven tone as the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest-rate increase since 2023 and a Middle East flare-up whipsawed oil prices. In the U.S., a modestly hawkish hike and a late pullback in crude left the major benchmarks mixed, with artificial-intelligence names cushioning the technology complex. In China and Hong Kong, a Friday technology-led rebound rescued mainland shares even as soft domestic demand and credit data kept sentiment fragile. In Singapore, a historic surge in AI-driven non-oil exports underpinned the macro backdrop, though the Straits Times Index slipped as index heavyweights sold off.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

The major U.S. indexes finished mixed in a week dominated by the Fed's rate decision and volatile oil prices. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) outperformed with a +0.72% gain as AI-related shares shrugged off weekend safety warnings, while the S&P 500 (SPX) was essentially flat at -0.08% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged, falling -1.69%. Growth outpaced value across the large-cap universe, and small-caps trailed.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI):  -1.69%

-  S&P 500 (SPX):  -0.08%

-  Nasdaq Composite (COMP):  +0.72%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed Delivers First Rate Hike Since 2023

The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday, a widely expected move that drew no dissents - a surprise, as many observers had looked for one or two doves favouring a hold. The Summary of Economic Projections penciled in one further 25 bps hike by end-2026, signalling a firmly inflation-focused stance.

2️⃣ Treasury Yields Whip Around the Decision

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.04% earlier in the week, its highest since 2007, before easing to 4.94% on Thursday as investors gained confidence in the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility, then ticking higher again on Friday. Shorter-dated yields, most sensitive to the policy path, firmed as markets read the message as modestly more hawkish than expected.

3️⃣ Oil Spike Fades on Pipeline Reassessment

Crude jumped early in the week after attacks on Saudi pipeline infrastructure, and record U.S. diesel prices stoked inflation fears that the hike only partly assuaged. West Texas Intermediate then fell over 3% on Wednesday - its steepest daily drop in six weeks - after reports suggested the pipeline damage was less severe than first feared.

4️⃣ AI Complex Recovers From Safety Jitters

After Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urged slower development of frontier models on Sept 12 - a call soon echoed by OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk - AI-linked semiconductors, memory and energy names sold off on Monday. Supportive comments from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang steadied the group on Tuesday, and it regained ground into week's end.

5️⃣ Credit Favours Quality Over High Yield

Investment-grade corporates outperformed Treasuries for most of the week and rallied after the hike, with new issues generally oversubscribed on strong underlying demand. High-yield stayed under pressure as rising Treasury yields, oil-driven inflation concerns and expectations for further tightening heightened stress on lower-quality credit.

6️⃣ Earnings Strength Underpins the Outlook

Beneath the rate noise, the earnings backdrop stayed supportive: S&P 500 and mid-cap profit growth is expected to hold near the 20% range in the quarters ahead, and August retail sales beat despite elevated oil and inflation. Resilient consumption and broadening earnings could make any market advance less reliant on a handful of mega-caps.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector performance tilted toward defensives and secular growth over cyclicals. Health Care led the tape and Technology was the only other sector to advance as the AI trade steadied, with semiconductor and precious-metals miners among the strongest sub-groups. At the bottom, Utilities fell hardest on the back-up in yields, followed by Financials - where rate-sensitive banks stabilised only after a sharp mid-week sell-off - and Real Estate. The split underscored a market rewarding defensive and secular-growth earnings while punishing its most rate-exposed corners. (Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX held its recent range, closing marginally lower but comfortably above near-term support 7600 level as the flat weekly print masked sizeable intraday swings around the Fed. The Nasdaq's relative strength kept it near cycle highs within its 7-week consolidation range, while the DJI's slide left it lagging and testing the lower half of its recent band. On the charts, SPX and Nasdaq remain in sideways-to-higher consolidation with uptrends intact, whereas the DJI is consolidating lower - a divergence worth watching should yields resume their climb.

📊 Weekly charts:

-  DJI weekly chart

-  SPX weekly chart

-  Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were mixed as mainland shares outperformed Hong Kong on a technology-led rebound into Friday. The CSI 300 edged down 0.06% and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) slipped 0.22%, while the Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 0.61% in local-currency terms. Early weakness in AI and other growth names - amid a regional tech sell-off, higher oil and softer domestic data - gave way late in the week as semiconductors rebounded sharply and the renminbi firmed to a multi-year high. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-  CSI 300:  -0.06%

-  Shanghai Composite (SSE):  +0.61%

-  Hang Seng Index (HSI):  -0.22%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Friday Tech Rebound Rescues the Week

A sharp Friday recovery in semiconductors and AI-related names broadened across mainland and Hong Kong boards, narrowing losses that had built earlier in the week. The renminbi strengthened to its firmest level in more than four years, a supportive backdrop that helped growth stocks claw back lost ground.

2️⃣ Industrial Output Firm, Demand Still Soft

August data underscored a widening divide: industrial production rose 5.2% year over year, ahead of expectations and up from July's 4.5%, powered by higher-value-added manufacturing. Retail sales, by contrast, grew just 0.4%, slowing from 0.6%, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% and property investment dropped 19.9% in the first eight months.

3️⃣ Credit Data Reinforces the Divide

Banks extended only RMB 60 billion of new loans in August, far below the RMB 400 billion consensus, and household borrowing contracted for a sixth straight month. Total social financing growth eased to 7.2% year over year from 7.4%, keeping the contrast between resilient technology manufacturing and weak consumption and property firmly in view.

4️⃣ Hong Kong Five-Year Plan Signals a Pivot

Hong Kong's inaugural 2026-2030 plan points to a policy shift away from property-led growth toward offshore renminbi finance, commodities infrastructure and technology capacity, per Maybank Securities. The read-through favours financial-plumbing and select strategic-infrastructure plays over generic local property exposure.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed marginally lower on the week but held above its recent consolidation floor, with Friday's rebound repairing some of the mid-week damage. The index remains range-bound below its year-to-date pivot, and breadth stayed uneven - a heavy tail of energy and consumer decliners offset a firm technology and biotech bid. A decisive move now hinges on whether Friday's tech recovery can extend or fades as oil and demand concerns linger.

HSI Constituents in Focus

Weekly Gainers.  Lenovo topped the index with a spectacular +20.06% surge on AI-PC and hardware momentum, while the healthcare and biotech cohort ran hot - WuXi Bio (+7.13%), WuXi AppTec (+5.93%), Hansoh (+4.83%), JD Health (+4.43%) and Sino Biopharm (+4.19%) all rallied. Chip bellwether SMIC (+3.17%) and Trip.com (+4.45%) rounded out a growth-led leaderboard. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

Weekly Decliners.  The losers skewed toward energy and old-economy cyclicals as oil retreated: Sinopec (-5.55%), PetroChina (-4.91%) and China Shenhua (-3.60%) all fell. Macau gaming lagged, with Sands China (-8.38%) the single worst constituent, while consumer names Haidilao (-5.52%) and Chow Tai Fook (-5.31%) echoed the soft domestic-demand signal. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

-  SSE weekly chart

-  HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) eased 0.70% to close the week at 5,656.11, trimming but preserving a strong year-to-date advance of +21.74%. The decline was concentrated in a handful of index heavyweights rather than a broad retreat, as the large bank components finished roughly flat. Underpinning the tape, a record surge in non-oil domestic exports reinforced Singapore's increasingly AI-driven growth story.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Straits Times Index (STI):  -0.70%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ NODX Posts Fastest Growth Since 1988

Non-oil domestic exports surged 46.2% year over year in August - up sharply from July's 24.1% and the fastest since 1988 - with electronic shipments jumping roughly 132%. Exports to the U.S. (+91.0%) and China (+70.3%) led the gains, pointing to an AI-driven investment cycle rather than a broad-based recovery in consumer demand.

2️⃣ Analysts Lift Export and Rate Forecasts

The blowout print prompted upgrades: Maybank Securities reiterated its +5.2% full-year GDP call and raised its end-2026 3M SORA forecast to 1.6% (from 1.2%), while CGS International lifted its 2026 NODX growth outlook to 25.0% from 16.0%. Firmer local rate expectations dovetailed with the Fed's hawkish turn.

3️⃣ Index Drag From SGX and DFI Retail

The STI's slip owed to sharp falls in a few names: DFI Retail (-10.86%) and the stock exchange SGX (-8.64%) were the biggest drags, with Keppel (-3.50%) and Singtel (-3.33%) also weak. Gains in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (+3.82%), ST Engineering (+1.86%) and UOB (+1.26%) cushioned the fall.

4️⃣ City Developments Sets Strategic-Review Date

City Developments said it will release the outcome of its strategic review on Sept 28, sending shares up as much as 4.3% intraday. UOB Kay Hian expects the review could include portfolio optimisation and monetisation of low-yielding UK and China assets - a potential near-term catalyst for the property counter.

Technical Snapshot

The STI's 0.70% dip barely dented an uptrend that has delivered a +21.74% year-to-date return, leaving the index consolidating just below its recent highs. Support held as roughly flat bank heavyweights offset the sell-off in DFI Retail and SGX, keeping the broader structure constructive. With the AI-export tailwind intact and local rate expectations firming, the near-term bias stays sideways-to-higher pending fresh catalysts. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

-  STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (21-25 Sep 2026)

The U.S. calendar centres on the August PCE report - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due late in the week - alongside the final Q2 GDP estimate, durable-goods orders and weekly jobless claims. With no FOMC meeting until Dec 8-9, a heavy slate of Fed speakers will be parsed for how firmly the one-more-hike path is held. Oil and Middle East headlines remain the key swing factor for yields and risk appetite.

China's loan prime rate fixing opens the week, testing whether banks pass on any further easing amid soft credit and property data. Investors will watch whether Friday's technology-led rebound and renminbi strength can extend, and gauge early positioning around Hong Kong's new 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan priorities in offshore RMB finance and technology.

In Singapore, August CPI mid-week and industrial production at week's end will show whether the export boom is broadening beyond electronics. Regionally, ASEAN currencies face mild depreciation pressure after the Fed's hike, and City Developments' strategic-review outcome on Sept 28 looms as a near-term catalyst.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk is oil. Crude's mid-week reversal on softer Saudi pipeline damage did much to calm the inflation scare - but any renewed Middle East escalation that re-spikes prices would revive the very inflation fears the Fed's hike only partly assuaged, pushing Treasury yields back toward 5% and pressuring rate-sensitive equities worldwide.

 

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Oil Spike, Hot CPI: Fed Hike Odds Surge

For the week of Sep 11, global markets sold off as an escalating Middle East conflict pushed oil briefly above $100 a barrel and a hotter-than-expected August core CPI reading lifted the odds of a September Fed rate hike. U.S. equities retreated broadly, led by small- and mid-caps, as rising Treasury yields and fuel costs weighed on sentiment ahead of the Fed's policy decision. China and Hong Kong shares fell in sympathy, with Hong Kong underperforming the mainland as AI-related tech names swung sharply on dilution concerns. Singapore's Straits Times Index also retreated, tracking the regional risk-off tone as banks and property counters led the decline.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished the holiday-shortened week broadly lower as an escalating Middle East conflict sent oil prices sharply higher and lifted Treasury yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 1.57%, the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 0.80%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) held up best with a 0.66% loss, as small- and mid-cap names underperformed the mega-cap-heavy benchmarks. Markets were closed Monday for Labor Day, compressing a week dominated by inflation data and rate-hike repricing.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -1.57%

-  S&P 500 (SPX): -0.80%

-  Nasdaq Composite (COMP): -0.66%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Middle East Conflict Sends Oil Near $110 

Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and continued U.S.-Iran hostilities lifted oil sharply, with WTI briefly topping $100 a barrel and Brent nearing $110 before easing late in the week. The spike revived inflation concerns just as the Fed prepared to weigh its next move, adding a fresh supply-side complication to an already delicate policy backdrop.

2️⃣ Core CPI Reaccelerates, Fed Bets Jump 

August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, the fastest pace since April, while headline inflation held at 3.4% year-over-year. Wireless, airfare and software costs drove the upside surprise. The market-implied probability of a September rate hike climbed to roughly 87-90% by Friday, up sharply from earlier in the week.

3️⃣ Producer Prices Firm Ahead of CPI 

Producer prices rose 0.4% in August, accelerating from July's 0.1% gain and up 5.4% year-over-year, with energy costs driving much of the increase. Core PPI rose a softer 0.2% on the month but climbed to 4.6% annually, reinforcing the case that pipeline price pressures were building even before Friday's CPI print.

4️⃣ Treasury Yields Climb on Inflation, Supply 

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to roughly 4.97% and the two-year climbed above 4.63% as investors priced in firmer inflation and digested heavy issuance alongside a smaller-than-expected buyback operation. Rising yields added to the week's headwinds for equities, particularly rate-sensitive and higher-multiple sectors.

5️⃣ Consumer Sentiment Falls for Second Month 

The University of Michigan's preliminary September sentiment index dropped to 47.8 from 51.7, as resurgent fuel prices and trade tensions weighed on households' outlook. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, the highest reading since June, even as labor market data showed little sign of deterioration.

6️⃣ Earnings Strength Offsets Macro Headwinds 

Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are tracking toward 27% year-over-year growth, extending a string of double-digit gains and helping cushion sentiment against rising yields and oil. Strategists note the Fed's current gap versus market rates looks narrower than in 2022, favouring a pairing of mega-cap tech leadership with select cyclical value exposure.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Energy was the standout performer as the run-up in oil lifted producer names, with Communication Services and Technology also outperforming the broader market. Health Care and Materials lagged badly, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary all finished lower as rising yields pressured rate-sensitive groups. The narrow breadth of gainers against a broad list of decliners underscored how concentrated this week's pockets of strength were. 

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pulled back toward near-term support after several weeks of gains, while the Dow's steeper decline reflected weaker breadth beneath the surface. Rising yields and oil prices added to short-term volatility ahead of the Fed's policy decision. All three benchmarks remain in sideways consolidation just below their recent highs, with a decisive break needed to confirm the next directional move.

📊 Weekly charts:

-  DJI weekly chart

-  SPX weekly chart

-  Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China and Hong Kong equities fell for the week, with Hong Kong underperforming the mainland. The CSI 300 declined 0.83%, the Shanghai Composite (SSE) fell 1.07%, and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 3.30% in local-currency terms, as elevated oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields weighed on regional risk appetite. Trading in China's AI-related tech names was especially volatile amid dilution concerns and intensifying price competition. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-  CSI 300: -0.83%

-  Shanghai Composite (SSE): -1.07%

-  Hang Seng Index (HSI): -3.30%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Beijing Broadens Bank Recapitalisation 

China announced RMB 360 billion (USD 54 billion) in fresh capital for eight state-owned banks, policy institutions and insurers, funded mainly through special Treasury bonds. Agricultural Bank of China and ICBC also announced A-share placements. Several large banks and insurers weakened as markets absorbed the dilution implications, even as the move aims to strengthen core capital buffers.

2️⃣ Exports Stay Resilient, Domestic Demand Uneven 

China's exports rose 25.0% year-over-year in August, accelerating from July, supported by strong tech shipments tied to the global AI build-out. Imports grew 28.2%, widening the trade surplus to USD 119.1 billion. Passenger-car retail sales fell 24% year-over-year, however, highlighting a still-uneven domestic recovery.

3️⃣ Inflation Picks Up on Energy, Upstream Costs 

Consumer price inflation rose to 0.8% year-over-year from 0.5%, while producer prices increased 3.8%, up from 3.5%, as energy and raw material costs climbed. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, held at a modest 1.0%, suggesting the pickup was driven more by input costs than a broad strengthening in domestic demand.

4️⃣ AI Names Swing on Dilution, Competition 

Several Hong Kong-listed AI model developers fell sharply this week on dilution concerns and intensifying price competition following a lower-cost model release from a domestic rival, even as Tencent-backed Enflame Technology surged roughly 179% on its STAR Market debut. The divergence underscored how selective sentiment toward China tech has become.

5️⃣ Maybank Flags Bank and Energy Picks 

Maybank favours China Merchants Bank for its strengthening wealth-management franchise and Ping An Insurance for improving business quality, both offering dividend yields of roughly 4-6%. It also likes CICC on robust capital-markets activity and CNOOC for its low-cost production base amid elevated oil prices, while flagging a possible near-term rotation toward dividend payers and defensives.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index broke below its recent trading range as the 3.30% weekly decline extended a multi-week pullback from prior highs. Breadth was overwhelmingly negative, with decliners outnumbering gainers by a wide margin across the index. The index remains in a near-term downtrend, with a stabilisation in oil prices and Treasury yields likely needed before sentiment improves.

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers

Gains were far more limited and concentrated in utilities and telecoms. China Unicom led advancers, followed by CK Infrastructure, CLP Holdings and Power Assets, as investors rotated into defensive, dividend-paying names. 

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly gainers table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners

Weekly decliners were led by consumer, tech and property counters as risk sentiment soured. Haidilao, WH Group and Zhongsheng each fell more than 10%, while heavyweights Alibaba, Tencent and BYD also declined sharply amid the broader tech-led sell-off. 

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly decliners table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

-  SSE weekly chart

-  HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) fell 1.83% for the week, tracking the broader regional sell-off as global risk appetite soured on rising oil prices and Treasury yields. Banking counters led the decline, with UOB, OCBC and DBS all down more than 1.7%, while property names and industrial REITs also came under pressure. A handful of defensive and shipping-related names bucked the trend.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Straits Times Index (STI): -1.83%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Banking Trio Leads Index Lower 

Singapore's three local banks were among the week's biggest drags on the STI, with DBS down 2.10%, OCBC off 2.08% and UOB down 1.79%, as rising U.S. Treasury yields and risk-off sentiment weighed on financials broadly. The declines mirrored weakness across regional bank stocks amid the global rate repricing.

2️⃣ Property and REITs Under Pressure 

Real estate names were among the week's steepest fallers, with City Developments down 5.12% and UOL Group off 4.00%, while several REITs including Mapletree Logistics Trust and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT also declined. Higher-for-longer rate expectations continued to weigh on the sector's valuations.

3️⃣ SGX, Consumer Names Extend Losses 

Singapore Exchange fell 3.95% and DFI Retail Group dropped 3.31%, extending recent weakness as trading-sensitive and consumer-facing counters lagged the broader market. Wilmar International also declined nearly 3% amid soft sentiment across agri-commodity plays.

4️⃣ Shipbuilding, Logistics Names Buck the Trend 

A handful of counters bucked the broader sell-off, with Yangzijiang Shipbuilding up 0.81% and SATS gaining 0.77%, supported by resilient order books and travel-related demand. The pocket of strength offered a modest counterweight to an otherwise broadly negative week.

Technical Snapshot

The STI slipped below its recent trading range this week, with the 1.83% decline marking one of its steeper weekly losses of the year. Breadth was firmly negative, with the majority of constituents finishing lower, led by banks and property names. The index remains in a near-term pullback, though its solid year-to-date gain leaves it well above where it started 2026. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

-  STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (14–18 Sep 2026)

All eyes turn to the Fed's two-day policy meeting, concluding Wednesday, 16 Sep, with markets pricing a high probability of a rate hike alongside updated economic projections and the dot plot. Retail sales, industrial production and housing data round out a data-heavy week, while any further escalation or de-escalation in Middle East tensions will remain a key swing factor for oil and risk sentiment.

In China and Hong Kong, investors will watch for any follow-through on Beijing's bank recapitalisation programme and further A-share placement details from state lenders. Trading in AI-related tech names is likely to stay volatile as the market digests competitive and dilution pressures, while any fresh property or stimulus measures would be closely scrutinised for signs of durable domestic demand support.

Singapore markets will continue to take cues from the regional rate and oil narrative, with banks and REITs likely to stay sensitive to any shift in Fed expectations. Regional trade and manufacturing data releases are also on watch, alongside continued monitoring of shipping and logistics names for signs of relative resilience.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk of the week is the Fed's rate decision itself: a hike delivered alongside hawkish guidance could extend the recent rise in yields and pressure risk assets further, while any softer tone on the pace of future tightening could offer relief across equities and reverse some of this week's losses.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.