Hawkish Hike: Oil Spikes, AI Steadies Markets

For the week of Sep 18, global equities traded with a cautious, headline-driven tone as the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest-rate increase since 2023 and a Middle East flare-up whipsawed oil prices. In the U.S., a modestly hawkish hike and a late pullback in crude left the major benchmarks mixed, with artificial-intelligence names cushioning the technology complex. In China and Hong Kong, a Friday technology-led rebound rescued mainland shares even as soft domestic demand and credit data kept sentiment fragile. In Singapore, a historic surge in AI-driven non-oil exports underpinned the macro backdrop, though the Straits Times Index slipped as index heavyweights sold off.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

The major U.S. indexes finished mixed in a week dominated by the Fed's rate decision and volatile oil prices. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) outperformed with a +0.72% gain as AI-related shares shrugged off weekend safety warnings, while the S&P 500 (SPX) was essentially flat at -0.08% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged, falling -1.69%. Growth outpaced value across the large-cap universe, and small-caps trailed.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI):  -1.69%

-  S&P 500 (SPX):  -0.08%

-  Nasdaq Composite (COMP):  +0.72%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed Delivers First Rate Hike Since 2023

The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday, a widely expected move that drew no dissents - a surprise, as many observers had looked for one or two doves favouring a hold. The Summary of Economic Projections penciled in one further 25 bps hike by end-2026, signalling a firmly inflation-focused stance.

2️⃣ Treasury Yields Whip Around the Decision

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.04% earlier in the week, its highest since 2007, before easing to 4.94% on Thursday as investors gained confidence in the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility, then ticking higher again on Friday. Shorter-dated yields, most sensitive to the policy path, firmed as markets read the message as modestly more hawkish than expected.

3️⃣ Oil Spike Fades on Pipeline Reassessment

Crude jumped early in the week after attacks on Saudi pipeline infrastructure, and record U.S. diesel prices stoked inflation fears that the hike only partly assuaged. West Texas Intermediate then fell over 3% on Wednesday - its steepest daily drop in six weeks - after reports suggested the pipeline damage was less severe than first feared.

4️⃣ AI Complex Recovers From Safety Jitters

After Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urged slower development of frontier models on Sept 12 - a call soon echoed by OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk - AI-linked semiconductors, memory and energy names sold off on Monday. Supportive comments from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang steadied the group on Tuesday, and it regained ground into week's end.

5️⃣ Credit Favours Quality Over High Yield

Investment-grade corporates outperformed Treasuries for most of the week and rallied after the hike, with new issues generally oversubscribed on strong underlying demand. High-yield stayed under pressure as rising Treasury yields, oil-driven inflation concerns and expectations for further tightening heightened stress on lower-quality credit.

6️⃣ Earnings Strength Underpins the Outlook

Beneath the rate noise, the earnings backdrop stayed supportive: S&P 500 and mid-cap profit growth is expected to hold near the 20% range in the quarters ahead, and August retail sales beat despite elevated oil and inflation. Resilient consumption and broadening earnings could make any market advance less reliant on a handful of mega-caps.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector performance tilted toward defensives and secular growth over cyclicals. Health Care led the tape and Technology was the only other sector to advance as the AI trade steadied, with semiconductor and precious-metals miners among the strongest sub-groups. At the bottom, Utilities fell hardest on the back-up in yields, followed by Financials - where rate-sensitive banks stabilised only after a sharp mid-week sell-off - and Real Estate. The split underscored a market rewarding defensive and secular-growth earnings while punishing its most rate-exposed corners. (Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX held its recent range, closing marginally lower but comfortably above near-term support 7600 level as the flat weekly print masked sizeable intraday swings around the Fed. The Nasdaq's relative strength kept it near cycle highs within its 7-week consolidation range, while the DJI's slide left it lagging and testing the lower half of its recent band. On the charts, SPX and Nasdaq remain in sideways-to-higher consolidation with uptrends intact, whereas the DJI is consolidating lower - a divergence worth watching should yields resume their climb.

📊 Weekly charts:

-  DJI weekly chart

-  SPX weekly chart

-  Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were mixed as mainland shares outperformed Hong Kong on a technology-led rebound into Friday. The CSI 300 edged down 0.06% and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) slipped 0.22%, while the Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 0.61% in local-currency terms. Early weakness in AI and other growth names - amid a regional tech sell-off, higher oil and softer domestic data - gave way late in the week as semiconductors rebounded sharply and the renminbi firmed to a multi-year high. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-  CSI 300:  -0.06%

-  Shanghai Composite (SSE):  +0.61%

-  Hang Seng Index (HSI):  -0.22%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Friday Tech Rebound Rescues the Week

A sharp Friday recovery in semiconductors and AI-related names broadened across mainland and Hong Kong boards, narrowing losses that had built earlier in the week. The renminbi strengthened to its firmest level in more than four years, a supportive backdrop that helped growth stocks claw back lost ground.

2️⃣ Industrial Output Firm, Demand Still Soft

August data underscored a widening divide: industrial production rose 5.2% year over year, ahead of expectations and up from July's 4.5%, powered by higher-value-added manufacturing. Retail sales, by contrast, grew just 0.4%, slowing from 0.6%, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% and property investment dropped 19.9% in the first eight months.

3️⃣ Credit Data Reinforces the Divide

Banks extended only RMB 60 billion of new loans in August, far below the RMB 400 billion consensus, and household borrowing contracted for a sixth straight month. Total social financing growth eased to 7.2% year over year from 7.4%, keeping the contrast between resilient technology manufacturing and weak consumption and property firmly in view.

4️⃣ Hong Kong Five-Year Plan Signals a Pivot

Hong Kong's inaugural 2026-2030 plan points to a policy shift away from property-led growth toward offshore renminbi finance, commodities infrastructure and technology capacity, per Maybank Securities. The read-through favours financial-plumbing and select strategic-infrastructure plays over generic local property exposure.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed marginally lower on the week but held above its recent consolidation floor, with Friday's rebound repairing some of the mid-week damage. The index remains range-bound below its year-to-date pivot, and breadth stayed uneven - a heavy tail of energy and consumer decliners offset a firm technology and biotech bid. A decisive move now hinges on whether Friday's tech recovery can extend or fades as oil and demand concerns linger.

HSI Constituents in Focus

Weekly Gainers.  Lenovo topped the index with a spectacular +20.06% surge on AI-PC and hardware momentum, while the healthcare and biotech cohort ran hot - WuXi Bio (+7.13%), WuXi AppTec (+5.93%), Hansoh (+4.83%), JD Health (+4.43%) and Sino Biopharm (+4.19%) all rallied. Chip bellwether SMIC (+3.17%) and Trip.com (+4.45%) rounded out a growth-led leaderboard. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

Weekly Decliners.  The losers skewed toward energy and old-economy cyclicals as oil retreated: Sinopec (-5.55%), PetroChina (-4.91%) and China Shenhua (-3.60%) all fell. Macau gaming lagged, with Sands China (-8.38%) the single worst constituent, while consumer names Haidilao (-5.52%) and Chow Tai Fook (-5.31%) echoed the soft domestic-demand signal. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

-  SSE weekly chart

-  HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) eased 0.70% to close the week at 5,656.11, trimming but preserving a strong year-to-date advance of +21.74%. The decline was concentrated in a handful of index heavyweights rather than a broad retreat, as the large bank components finished roughly flat. Underpinning the tape, a record surge in non-oil domestic exports reinforced Singapore's increasingly AI-driven growth story.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Straits Times Index (STI):  -0.70%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ NODX Posts Fastest Growth Since 1988

Non-oil domestic exports surged 46.2% year over year in August - up sharply from July's 24.1% and the fastest since 1988 - with electronic shipments jumping roughly 132%. Exports to the U.S. (+91.0%) and China (+70.3%) led the gains, pointing to an AI-driven investment cycle rather than a broad-based recovery in consumer demand.

2️⃣ Analysts Lift Export and Rate Forecasts

The blowout print prompted upgrades: Maybank Securities reiterated its +5.2% full-year GDP call and raised its end-2026 3M SORA forecast to 1.6% (from 1.2%), while CGS International lifted its 2026 NODX growth outlook to 25.0% from 16.0%. Firmer local rate expectations dovetailed with the Fed's hawkish turn.

3️⃣ Index Drag From SGX and DFI Retail

The STI's slip owed to sharp falls in a few names: DFI Retail (-10.86%) and the stock exchange SGX (-8.64%) were the biggest drags, with Keppel (-3.50%) and Singtel (-3.33%) also weak. Gains in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (+3.82%), ST Engineering (+1.86%) and UOB (+1.26%) cushioned the fall.

4️⃣ City Developments Sets Strategic-Review Date

City Developments said it will release the outcome of its strategic review on Sept 28, sending shares up as much as 4.3% intraday. UOB Kay Hian expects the review could include portfolio optimisation and monetisation of low-yielding UK and China assets - a potential near-term catalyst for the property counter.

Technical Snapshot

The STI's 0.70% dip barely dented an uptrend that has delivered a +21.74% year-to-date return, leaving the index consolidating just below its recent highs. Support held as roughly flat bank heavyweights offset the sell-off in DFI Retail and SGX, keeping the broader structure constructive. With the AI-export tailwind intact and local rate expectations firming, the near-term bias stays sideways-to-higher pending fresh catalysts. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

-  STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (21-25 Sep 2026)

The U.S. calendar centres on the August PCE report - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due late in the week - alongside the final Q2 GDP estimate, durable-goods orders and weekly jobless claims. With no FOMC meeting until Dec 8-9, a heavy slate of Fed speakers will be parsed for how firmly the one-more-hike path is held. Oil and Middle East headlines remain the key swing factor for yields and risk appetite.

China's loan prime rate fixing opens the week, testing whether banks pass on any further easing amid soft credit and property data. Investors will watch whether Friday's technology-led rebound and renminbi strength can extend, and gauge early positioning around Hong Kong's new 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan priorities in offshore RMB finance and technology.

In Singapore, August CPI mid-week and industrial production at week's end will show whether the export boom is broadening beyond electronics. Regionally, ASEAN currencies face mild depreciation pressure after the Fed's hike, and City Developments' strategic-review outcome on Sept 28 looms as a near-term catalyst.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk is oil. Crude's mid-week reversal on softer Saudi pipeline damage did much to calm the inflation scare - but any renewed Middle East escalation that re-spikes prices would revive the very inflation fears the Fed's hike only partly assuaged, pushing Treasury yields back toward 5% and pressuring rate-sensitive equities worldwide.

 

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Oil Spike, Hot CPI: Fed Hike Odds Surge

For the week of Sep 11, global markets sold off as an escalating Middle East conflict pushed oil briefly above $100 a barrel and a hotter-than-expected August core CPI reading lifted the odds of a September Fed rate hike. U.S. equities retreated broadly, led by small- and mid-caps, as rising Treasury yields and fuel costs weighed on sentiment ahead of the Fed's policy decision. China and Hong Kong shares fell in sympathy, with Hong Kong underperforming the mainland as AI-related tech names swung sharply on dilution concerns. Singapore's Straits Times Index also retreated, tracking the regional risk-off tone as banks and property counters led the decline.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished the holiday-shortened week broadly lower as an escalating Middle East conflict sent oil prices sharply higher and lifted Treasury yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 1.57%, the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 0.80%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) held up best with a 0.66% loss, as small- and mid-cap names underperformed the mega-cap-heavy benchmarks. Markets were closed Monday for Labor Day, compressing a week dominated by inflation data and rate-hike repricing.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -1.57%

-  S&P 500 (SPX): -0.80%

-  Nasdaq Composite (COMP): -0.66%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Middle East Conflict Sends Oil Near $110 

Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and continued U.S.-Iran hostilities lifted oil sharply, with WTI briefly topping $100 a barrel and Brent nearing $110 before easing late in the week. The spike revived inflation concerns just as the Fed prepared to weigh its next move, adding a fresh supply-side complication to an already delicate policy backdrop.

2️⃣ Core CPI Reaccelerates, Fed Bets Jump 

August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, the fastest pace since April, while headline inflation held at 3.4% year-over-year. Wireless, airfare and software costs drove the upside surprise. The market-implied probability of a September rate hike climbed to roughly 87-90% by Friday, up sharply from earlier in the week.

3️⃣ Producer Prices Firm Ahead of CPI 

Producer prices rose 0.4% in August, accelerating from July's 0.1% gain and up 5.4% year-over-year, with energy costs driving much of the increase. Core PPI rose a softer 0.2% on the month but climbed to 4.6% annually, reinforcing the case that pipeline price pressures were building even before Friday's CPI print.

4️⃣ Treasury Yields Climb on Inflation, Supply 

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to roughly 4.97% and the two-year climbed above 4.63% as investors priced in firmer inflation and digested heavy issuance alongside a smaller-than-expected buyback operation. Rising yields added to the week's headwinds for equities, particularly rate-sensitive and higher-multiple sectors.

5️⃣ Consumer Sentiment Falls for Second Month 

The University of Michigan's preliminary September sentiment index dropped to 47.8 from 51.7, as resurgent fuel prices and trade tensions weighed on households' outlook. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, the highest reading since June, even as labor market data showed little sign of deterioration.

6️⃣ Earnings Strength Offsets Macro Headwinds 

Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are tracking toward 27% year-over-year growth, extending a string of double-digit gains and helping cushion sentiment against rising yields and oil. Strategists note the Fed's current gap versus market rates looks narrower than in 2022, favouring a pairing of mega-cap tech leadership with select cyclical value exposure.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Energy was the standout performer as the run-up in oil lifted producer names, with Communication Services and Technology also outperforming the broader market. Health Care and Materials lagged badly, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary all finished lower as rising yields pressured rate-sensitive groups. The narrow breadth of gainers against a broad list of decliners underscored how concentrated this week's pockets of strength were. 

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pulled back toward near-term support after several weeks of gains, while the Dow's steeper decline reflected weaker breadth beneath the surface. Rising yields and oil prices added to short-term volatility ahead of the Fed's policy decision. All three benchmarks remain in sideways consolidation just below their recent highs, with a decisive break needed to confirm the next directional move.

📊 Weekly charts:

-  DJI weekly chart

-  SPX weekly chart

-  Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China and Hong Kong equities fell for the week, with Hong Kong underperforming the mainland. The CSI 300 declined 0.83%, the Shanghai Composite (SSE) fell 1.07%, and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 3.30% in local-currency terms, as elevated oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields weighed on regional risk appetite. Trading in China's AI-related tech names was especially volatile amid dilution concerns and intensifying price competition. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-  CSI 300: -0.83%

-  Shanghai Composite (SSE): -1.07%

-  Hang Seng Index (HSI): -3.30%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Beijing Broadens Bank Recapitalisation 

China announced RMB 360 billion (USD 54 billion) in fresh capital for eight state-owned banks, policy institutions and insurers, funded mainly through special Treasury bonds. Agricultural Bank of China and ICBC also announced A-share placements. Several large banks and insurers weakened as markets absorbed the dilution implications, even as the move aims to strengthen core capital buffers.

2️⃣ Exports Stay Resilient, Domestic Demand Uneven 

China's exports rose 25.0% year-over-year in August, accelerating from July, supported by strong tech shipments tied to the global AI build-out. Imports grew 28.2%, widening the trade surplus to USD 119.1 billion. Passenger-car retail sales fell 24% year-over-year, however, highlighting a still-uneven domestic recovery.

3️⃣ Inflation Picks Up on Energy, Upstream Costs 

Consumer price inflation rose to 0.8% year-over-year from 0.5%, while producer prices increased 3.8%, up from 3.5%, as energy and raw material costs climbed. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, held at a modest 1.0%, suggesting the pickup was driven more by input costs than a broad strengthening in domestic demand.

4️⃣ AI Names Swing on Dilution, Competition 

Several Hong Kong-listed AI model developers fell sharply this week on dilution concerns and intensifying price competition following a lower-cost model release from a domestic rival, even as Tencent-backed Enflame Technology surged roughly 179% on its STAR Market debut. The divergence underscored how selective sentiment toward China tech has become.

5️⃣ Maybank Flags Bank and Energy Picks 

Maybank favours China Merchants Bank for its strengthening wealth-management franchise and Ping An Insurance for improving business quality, both offering dividend yields of roughly 4-6%. It also likes CICC on robust capital-markets activity and CNOOC for its low-cost production base amid elevated oil prices, while flagging a possible near-term rotation toward dividend payers and defensives.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index broke below its recent trading range as the 3.30% weekly decline extended a multi-week pullback from prior highs. Breadth was overwhelmingly negative, with decliners outnumbering gainers by a wide margin across the index. The index remains in a near-term downtrend, with a stabilisation in oil prices and Treasury yields likely needed before sentiment improves.

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers

Gains were far more limited and concentrated in utilities and telecoms. China Unicom led advancers, followed by CK Infrastructure, CLP Holdings and Power Assets, as investors rotated into defensive, dividend-paying names. 

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly gainers table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners

Weekly decliners were led by consumer, tech and property counters as risk sentiment soured. Haidilao, WH Group and Zhongsheng each fell more than 10%, while heavyweights Alibaba, Tencent and BYD also declined sharply amid the broader tech-led sell-off. 

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly decliners table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

-  SSE weekly chart

-  HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) fell 1.83% for the week, tracking the broader regional sell-off as global risk appetite soured on rising oil prices and Treasury yields. Banking counters led the decline, with UOB, OCBC and DBS all down more than 1.7%, while property names and industrial REITs also came under pressure. A handful of defensive and shipping-related names bucked the trend.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Straits Times Index (STI): -1.83%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Banking Trio Leads Index Lower 

Singapore's three local banks were among the week's biggest drags on the STI, with DBS down 2.10%, OCBC off 2.08% and UOB down 1.79%, as rising U.S. Treasury yields and risk-off sentiment weighed on financials broadly. The declines mirrored weakness across regional bank stocks amid the global rate repricing.

2️⃣ Property and REITs Under Pressure 

Real estate names were among the week's steepest fallers, with City Developments down 5.12% and UOL Group off 4.00%, while several REITs including Mapletree Logistics Trust and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT also declined. Higher-for-longer rate expectations continued to weigh on the sector's valuations.

3️⃣ SGX, Consumer Names Extend Losses 

Singapore Exchange fell 3.95% and DFI Retail Group dropped 3.31%, extending recent weakness as trading-sensitive and consumer-facing counters lagged the broader market. Wilmar International also declined nearly 3% amid soft sentiment across agri-commodity plays.

4️⃣ Shipbuilding, Logistics Names Buck the Trend 

A handful of counters bucked the broader sell-off, with Yangzijiang Shipbuilding up 0.81% and SATS gaining 0.77%, supported by resilient order books and travel-related demand. The pocket of strength offered a modest counterweight to an otherwise broadly negative week.

Technical Snapshot

The STI slipped below its recent trading range this week, with the 1.83% decline marking one of its steeper weekly losses of the year. Breadth was firmly negative, with the majority of constituents finishing lower, led by banks and property names. The index remains in a near-term pullback, though its solid year-to-date gain leaves it well above where it started 2026. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

-  STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (14–18 Sep 2026)

All eyes turn to the Fed's two-day policy meeting, concluding Wednesday, 16 Sep, with markets pricing a high probability of a rate hike alongside updated economic projections and the dot plot. Retail sales, industrial production and housing data round out a data-heavy week, while any further escalation or de-escalation in Middle East tensions will remain a key swing factor for oil and risk sentiment.

In China and Hong Kong, investors will watch for any follow-through on Beijing's bank recapitalisation programme and further A-share placement details from state lenders. Trading in AI-related tech names is likely to stay volatile as the market digests competitive and dilution pressures, while any fresh property or stimulus measures would be closely scrutinised for signs of durable domestic demand support.

Singapore markets will continue to take cues from the regional rate and oil narrative, with banks and REITs likely to stay sensitive to any shift in Fed expectations. Regional trade and manufacturing data releases are also on watch, alongside continued monitoring of shipping and logistics names for signs of relative resilience.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk of the week is the Fed's rate decision itself: a hike delivered alongside hawkish guidance could extend the recent rise in yields and pressure risk assets further, while any softer tone on the pace of future tightening could offer relief across equities and reverse some of this week's losses.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Jobs Beat, Hike Bets Build: Markets Await the Fed

For the week of Sep 4, global markets traded on two competing forces: a hotter-than-expected U.S. labour market and renewed Middle East supply risk. U.S. indices finished narrowly mixed as a strong August payrolls print lifted expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, while oil and Treasury yields climbed on U.S.–Iran hostilities. China’s mainland benchmarks slipped as momentum in AI-related shares faded, though Hong Kong reversed course with a sharp Friday rally. Singapore stood apart, with the Straits Times Index outperforming on broad strength in the banks.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

Major U.S. indices finished the week narrowly mixed. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 0.40% and the S&P 500 (SPX) edged up 0.09%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) slipped 0.27%. Growth stocks outperformed value by the widest margin in a month on Russell 1000 measures, with energy the standout sector as oil prices rose on renewed Middle East tensions.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.27%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +0.09%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.40%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ August Payrolls Blow Past Expectations

The Labor Department reported 162,000 jobs added in August, well above estimates near 55,000 and up sharply from July’s upwardly revised 21,000. June and July gains were revised a combined 55,000 higher. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% while the labour force participation rate rose to 61.6% from 61.4%.

2️⃣ Softer Signals Beneath the Headline

Secondary labour data was more mixed. July job openings totalled 7.27 million, up from June’s 7.18 million but short of the 7.35 million consensus, while ADP recorded just 38,000 private jobs added in August — the weakest monthly figure since January. Initial claims for the week ended 29 August were 206,000, little changed.

3️⃣ Wage Growth Cools to a Five-Year Low

Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-on-year, below July’s 3.2% and the softest reading since 2021, against a 2026 average near 3.5%. The firm reads this as evidence of solid labour demand without wage-price pressure — an important distinction for a Fed weighing whether to tighten.

4️⃣ Oil and Yields Climb on U.S.–Iran Hostilities

The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes near the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in several weeks, lifting oil sharply on Monday and Tuesday as supply-disruption concerns resurfaced. The 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 4.82% intraday on Wednesday before retracing, then resumed climbing after Friday’s jobs report.

5️⃣ ISM Surveys Expand but Prices Stay Sticky

ISM manufacturing eased to 54.6 from 55.6 — an eighth straight month of expansion, but below the 55.4 consensus — while its prices index held at 71.1, a 23rd consecutive month of rising raw materials costs. ISM services rose 1.3 points to 55.4, with prices paid at a four-year high.

6️⃣ A Live FOMC, With Expectations Still Anchored

The 16 September meeting is shaping up as a live one, with CME FedWatch odds near 60% for a hike — which would be the first since July 2023. Governor Waller said he would be inclined to hold if disinflation continues, a week after Chair Warsh warned the Fed may have more work to do. Market-based inflation expectations remain in the low-2% range.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Energy was the strongest S&P 500 sector on the week as crude rallied on Middle East supply risk, and it remains the clear year-to-date leader among the sector ETFs. Technology and utilities also finished higher, while health care edged up and financials were unchanged, leaving the SPY tracker with only a marginal weekly gain. Consumer discretionary was the weakest performer, with materials, real estate and industrials also lower. The pattern — energy and technology up, cyclicals and rate-sensitives down — is consistent with the week’s twin drivers of higher oil and higher yields.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.60 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,506.99, while the Dow ended at 53,414.25 after shedding 145.74 points. Year to date the Nasdaq leads at +14.05%, ahead of the S&P 500 at +12.75% and the Dow at +11.13%. With the S&P 500 moving less than a tenth of a percent and the three benchmarks finishing in opposite directions, the weekly charts for the past 4 weeks continue to show sideways consolidation rather than trend — a range that Friday’s CPI print is the most likely candidate to resolve.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weeklychart

- SPX weeklychart

- Nasdaqweekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities diverged. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 0.56% as momentum in AI-related shares faded, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 0.26% in local currency terms after a sharp 1.74% rally on Friday. Consumer staples, agriculture and media held up relatively better on the mainland, while Hong Kong’s Friday advance was led by technology, consumer and property names.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -1.33%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.56%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +0.26%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ AI Momentum Fades on the Mainland

A midweek rise in oil prices and global bond yields amplified selling in semiconductors and other AI-related growth shares, dragging the CSI 300 to a 1.33% loss. More traditional areas of the market — consumer staples, agriculture and media — held up relatively better, leaving the broader Shanghai Composite with a narrower decline.

2️⃣ Hong Kong’s Friday Rally Flips the Week

The Hang Seng rallied 1.74% on Friday to finish the week in positive territory, led by technology, consumer and property shares after Waller’s comments eased concerns about a near-term U.S. rate increase. Mainland financials topped the constituent table, with CM Bank, Bank of China and CCB all posting mid-to-high single-digit weekly gains.

3️⃣ Beijing Tightens Property Presale Rules

New rules generally require a residential project’s main structure to be topped out before presales begin, with mortgages on presold homes disbursed only after completion is registered. Accompanying credit measures extend development-loan maturities and raise the maximum personal housing loan term from 30 to 40 years.

4️⃣ Developers Sold Off, Then Partly Recovered

Property shares fell sharply when markets reopened on Monday as investors assessed the implications for developer cash flows, with smaller developers among the weakest performers. The sector recovered later in the week and joined Friday’s rally, though CR Land, Longfor and Henderson Land still finished among the index’s heaviest weekly decliners.

5️⃣ Official and Private PMIs Diverge

Official manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 from 49.2 but stayed below 50 for a second month, with non-manufacturing at 49.0 — its weakest since December 2022. The private RatingDog surveys were firmer: manufacturing 51.5, services 51.4, composite 52.1. Maybank reads the firmer private data as supporting its preference for overseas expanders such as BYD, and resilient leaders including ICBC and China Construction Bank.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng closed at 25,650.87, up 0.26% on the week but only +0.08% year to date — essentially flat since January. The Shanghai Composite ended at 3,930.12, down 22.06 points on the week and −0.98% year to date. Beneath the HSI’s flat headline, breadth was unusually wide: mainland banks gained 7–9% while Zhongsheng, Chow Tai Fook and Xinyi Solar each fell more than 10%, a dispersion that argues for stock selection over index exposure.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weeklychart

- HSI weeklychart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) was the strongest of the major indices tracked this week, gaining 1.79%, or 102.02 points, to close at 5,801.96. That extends its year-to-date advance to 24.88%, well ahead of regional peers — Malaysia’s KLCI fell 1.03% over the same period. Gains were concentrated at the top of the constituent table, led by the banks and by property counters.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +1.79%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Banks Drive the Index Higher

OCBC (O39) rose 3.86%, DBS (D05) 3.28% and UOB (U11) 3.02%, making the three lenders the heaviest contributors to the STI’s weekly gain given their index weights. OCBC extends its year-to-date lead at +63.31%, with DBS at +39.55% and UOB at +19.82%.

2️⃣ Property and Conglomerates Add Support

Hongkong Land (H78) was the week’s best-performing constituent at +4.40%, followed by City Developments (C09) at +3.12%. Sembcorp Industries (U96) gained 1.66%, YZJ Shipbuilding (BS6) 0.82% and Keppel (BN4) 0.70%. Both HK Land and CityDev remain in positive territory year to date.

3️⃣ Consumer, Aviation and Services Lag

SATS (S58) was the weakest constituent at −3.24%, with ThaiBev (Y92) at −3.23%, SIA (C6L) at −1.89% and Genting Singapore (G13) at −1.59%. ST Engineering (S63) fell 1.50% and Venture Corp (V03) 1.47%, though both retain double-digit year-to-date gains.

4️⃣ S-REITs Broadly Weaker

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (N2IU) fell 3.15% and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U) 2.06%, with Frasers L&C (BUOU), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial (C38U), Frasers Centrepoint (J69U), Mapletree Logistics (M44U) and Keppel DC REIT (AJBU) all lower. Mapletree Industrial Trust (ME8U) was the sole S-REIT gainer at +0.52%.

Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,801.96, its 102-point advance the largest in absolute terms among the seven benchmarks tracked this week. At +24.88% year to date it is comfortably the strongest performer in the table. Breadth was narrower than the headline suggests — 11 of 30 constituents advanced against 17 decliners and two unchanged — indicating the move was carried by the index’s heaviest weights rather than by the broad market.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weeklychart

 

📅 Week Ahead (7–11 Sep 2026)

U.S. markets are closed on Monday 7 Sep for Labor Day, which should thin early-week activity. August PPI lands on Thursday 10 Sep, followed by the August CPI report on Friday 11 Sep — the final inflation print before the FOMC decision on Wednesday 16 Sep, with consensus at 3.4% headline and 2.4% core. The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index also arrives on Friday.

China’s August CPI is due on Wednesday 9 Sep, following July’s +0.5% year-on-year reading. With the official and private PMI surveys pointing in different directions, the print will test whether domestic demand is genuinely firming. August trade and credit aggregates follow later in the month.

Singapore’s domestic docket is light, with August NODX not due until mid-month. Regional direction is therefore likely to be set externally — by China’s CPI midweek and the U.S. inflation print on Friday. The ECB rate decision on Thursday 10 Sep adds a further cross-asset variable.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

Friday’s U.S. August CPI is the single binary risk of the week. With CME FedWatch odds near 60% for a hike on 16 September, an in-line or cooler print would validate Waller’s case for holding and relieve pressure on rate-sensitive equities in the U.S. and Hong Kong alike. A reacceleration would move a first hike since July 2023 close to a done deal — and oil’s renewed Middle East premium makes that outcome more plausible than it looked a month ago.

 

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

A Clearer Path into Sep: NVIDIA Delivers, Warsh Warns

For the week of Aug 28, two of the year’s most consequential events landed within 48 hours of each other. U.S. equities finished higher across the major benchmarks as NVIDIA’s results reignited the AI trade, even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole that lifted short-dated yields and revived expectations of a rate hike. China and Hong Kong diverged, with mainland semiconductor and AI-hardware names rallying while Hong Kong lagged on a large Alibaba equity placement and broad internet weakness. Singapore eked out a marginal gain, with shipbuilders and telcos offsetting softness in REITs and Hong Kong-linked constituents.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

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🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. indices closed higher across the majors in a week defined by NVIDIA’s earnings and Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut, though trading volumes were generally light and mid- and smaller-cap benchmarks lost ground. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led with a gain of 0.85%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) at 0.53% and the S&P 500 (SPX) at 0.49%. Declining oil prices and an in-line core PCE reading helped offset a hawkish repricing at the front end of the Treasury curve.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.53%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +0.49%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.85%

August Monthly Performance

August closed with the major U.S. benchmarks still carrying solid year-to-date advances — the Nasdaq Composite up 13.60%, the S&P 500 up 12.65% and the Dow up 11.44% — with the month’s two defining catalysts arriving only in its final week. NVIDIA’s results reaffirmed that AI capital spending continues to accelerate, while Warsh’s Jackson Hole address removed lingering doubt over the Fed’s inflation target and its willingness to act. Investors therefore enter a seasonally weak September with materially more clarity on both the AI growth story and the policy backdrop than they had a month ago.

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Warsh Reaffirms 2% Target, Keeps Hikes Alive 

Warsh struck a hawkish tone on Friday, describing the economy as resilient and financial conditions as not restrictive, while underlying inflation has not improved enough to declare victory. He reaffirmed the 2% PCE target as firm and signalled further tightening remains possible. Futures markets lifted implied odds of a September hike to roughly 60%, from about 35% beforehand.

2️⃣ NVIDIA Delivers a Blowout Quarter and Guide 

Fiscal second-quarter revenue surged 106% year over year, extending a 15-quarter streak of beats, with third-quarter guidance well ahead of expectations. Management projected revenue growth near 70% next year against consensus around 46%, and was explicit that the outlook is supply-constrained — customer demand implies growth closer to 100%. Shares rose 8.7% on Thursday.

3️⃣ Core PCE In Line, Headline Runs Hotter 

The headline PCE price index rose 0.2% in July and 3.7% from a year earlier, both firmer than economists anticipated. Core PCE rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually, matching expectations and limiting the market reaction. Consumer surveys stayed downbeat, with University of Michigan sentiment falling to 51.7 in August from 55.2 in July.

4️⃣ Curve Flattens on Hawkish Repricing 

The two-year Treasury yield rose notably after Warsh’s remarks as investors priced a higher probability of a near-term hike, while 10- and 30-year yields moved up only modestly. Edward Jones argues elevated long yields remain a valuation constraint rather than a threat to the economy or corporate earnings, with the 10-year still below nominal GDP growth.

5️⃣ Labour and Goods Data Stay Firm 

Durable goods orders rose a stronger-than-expected 1.1% in July, driven largely by transportation equipment. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to 203,000, with the four-week moving average stable, suggesting layoffs remain limited. The combination supports Warsh’s characterisation of an economy resilient enough to absorb a firmer policy stance.

6️⃣ September Seasonality Meets a Constructive Backdrop 

September is historically the weakest month for equities, an effect often amplified in midterm election years. Analysts note that past weakness typically arrived when markets were already under pressure — not the case today, with earnings growth fast, credit spreads tight and volatility low. It continues to favour a mix of AI and cyclical exposure.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector leadership tracked the week’s two catalysts closely. Communication Services and Technology led the index higher on the back of NVIDIA’s results and a broader recovery in software, while Financials also outperformed as the front end of the curve repriced. The laggards were defensive and rate-sensitive: Health Care fell furthest, with Industrials, Real Estate and Energy also finishing lower, the latter pressured as Brent settled below $90 amid hopes of restored energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Breadth was narrow — only three of the eleven sectors finished the week in positive territory.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,402.42, both extending modest gains without the decisive breakout that would confirm a fresh leg higher. The Dow ended at 53,559.99, its advance narrower than the headline suggests given weakness across industrial and health care constituents. On the weekly charts, SPX, the Nasdaq and the DJI all remain in sideways consolidation just below their recent highs, though general weekly uptrend well intact for all the three.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weeklychart

- SPX weeklychart

- Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were mixed, with mainland markets proving more resilient than Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 1.20% as semiconductor and AI-related shares rallied strongly midweek following NVIDIA’s results, while the CSI 300 slipped 0.21% and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell 1.63% in local currency terms. Hong Kong lagged as weakness among several large internet and consumer companies earlier in the week outweighed gains in selected technology stocks.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -0.21%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): +1.20%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -1.63%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Alibaba Placement Reopens the AI Returns Debate 

Alibaba’s HKD80 billion (USD10.2 billion) equity placement weighed on Hong Kong technology shares early in the week and renewed scrutiny of the capital required to build AI infrastructure. Completed on Wednesday, proceeds will fund computing capacity, hyperscale data centres and cloud upgrades. Alibaba ended the week down 7.40%.

2️⃣ Domestic AI Ecosystem Turns More Competitive 

Z.AI unveiled its lower-cost GLM-5.3-Flash model, saying it ran entirely on Chinese AI chips during testing, while MiniMax reported first-half revenue up 283% year over year. Alibaba released Qwen3.8-Flash, claiming improved performance at lower training cost. Investors are differentiating sharply between infrastructure beneficiaries and platforms still proving monetisation.

3️⃣ Industrial Profits Slow for a Third Month 

July industrial profit growth eased to 11.2% year over year from 15.1% in June, with the seven-month figure at 17.6% against 18.7% for the first half. Profits in computer, communications and electronic equipment more than doubled year to date, while automobiles and electrical machinery declined — an uneven recovery mirrored in equity leadership.

4️⃣ ChangXin Memory Posts Blowout First Half

ChangXin Memory (688825.SH) reported first-half revenue of RMB150.3 billion, up 873.6%, and attributable profit of RMB77.6 billion against a prior-year loss — well above its IPO prospectus range. Main-business gross margin reached 84.8% as DRAM shortages lifted both prices and volumes. No dividend was proposed.

5️⃣ Second-Quarter Results Favour Tech and Healthcare 

Maybank notes more than 60% of MSCI China constituents have reported, with around half beating. Technology and healthcare led growth while consumer staples lagged, underlining still-weak domestic consumption. Large-cap internet results were mixed: cloud, AI and gaming trends held up, but elevated AI capex weighed on free cash flow and near-term earnings expectations.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng closed at 25,584.79, down 1.63% on the week and back into marginally negative territory year to date. Breadth was poor, with losses concentrated in exporters, logistics and consumer names — Shenzhou International, OOIL and Zhongsheng each fell more than 10% — while pharmaceutical and energy names including Hansoh and Sinopec led the gainers. The Shanghai Composite’s close at 3,952.18 leaves the mainland index probing the 4,000 level, and the divergence between the two markets is likely to persist while AI-hardware leadership sits onshore.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weeklychart

- HSI weeklychart

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🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) closed the week up 0.19% at 5,699.93, a marginal gain that masked a sharp split beneath the surface. Shipbuilders, telcos and the exchange advanced, while REITs and Hong Kong-listed constituents sold off. The index remains the region’s standout performer this year, up 22.68% year to date.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +0.19%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Narrow Gain Masks a Two-Speed Market 

The STI’s 0.19% advance rested on a thin base, with just 11 of its 30 constituents closing higher. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding led at +2.94%, followed by Singtel at +2.73%, Wilmar at +2.70% and SGX at +2.49%. A handful of large-cap gains carried an index whose tail was firmly negative.

2️⃣ Banks Contribute Little in Either Direction 

The three local banks barely moved: UOB rose 0.62%, OCBC 0.29% and DBS 0.20%. With no results due, the trio drifted with the global rates backdrop rather than any local catalyst. Year to date the divergence is wide — OCBC is up 57.24%, DBS 35.11% and UOB 16.31%.

3️⃣ REITs Sag as Long Yields Stay Elevated 

Rate-sensitive names were among the week’s weakest. Keppel DC REIT fell 2.65%, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust 1.59%, Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.37% and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT 1.22%, while Mapletree Industrial Trust was unchanged. Almost every S-REIT in the index remains negative year to date.

4️⃣ Hong Kong-Linked Names Drag the Tail 

The steepest declines came from constituents with Hong Kong exposure, tracking the Hang Seng lower: Jardine Matheson fell 4.83%, DFI Retail 3.55% and Hongkong Land 3.19%. UOL dropped 3.87% and Genting Singapore 3.82%, leaving property and gaming among the weakest performers on the week.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The STI’s close at 5,699.93 leaves it sitting right on the 5,700 handle after another week of incremental progress. Momentum has visibly slowed from the pace set earlier in the year, with the index grinding rather than trending. A sustained break above 5,700 would keep the uptrend intact, while failure there points to consolidation into September.

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weeklychart

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📅 Week Ahead (31 Aug – 4 Sep 2026)

The U.S. calendar is dominated by labour data. JOLTS job openings for July land on Tuesday, 1 Sep, ahead of the August employment situation report on Friday, 4 Sep — the first major labour reading since Jackson Hole and a direct input into September rate pricing. ISM’s manufacturing and services surveys also print during the week.

China’s official NBS purchasing managers’ indices for August are due on Monday, 31 Aug, with the Caixin manufacturing gauge following at the start of September. After industrial profit growth slowed for a third consecutive month, the surveys will test whether the gap between AI-linked manufacturing and domestic demand is widening. Hong Kong’s interim results season winds down.

Singapore’s August PMI readings are released early in the week alongside regional manufacturing surveys. With no major local corporate events scheduled, the STI is likely to take its direction from U.S. rate expectations and Hong Kong. Malaysia’s KLCI enters the week on the back foot after slipping 0.61%.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

Friday’s August payrolls report is the week’s single binary risk. Warsh has told markets the Fed still has work to do, and futures now put roughly 60% odds on a September hike; a firm payroll print with a stable unemployment rate would harden that pricing and push front-end yields higher into the 15–16 Sep FOMC. A clear miss would do the opposite. Equity markets, having just repriced higher on NVIDIA’s numbers, are carrying little cushion for a hawkish surprise.

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.