Global equity markets closed April with broad-based gains as strong corporate earnings more than offset higher oil prices, a more hawkish Federal Reserve, and lingering Middle East uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both advanced on the week and delivered their strongest monthly gains since November 2020 and April 2020, respectively, helped by a resilient earnings season and continued mega-cap leadership. Chinese mainland markets posted modest gains on the back of Moody's upgrade of China's sovereign outlook to "stable" and the fastest industrial profit growth since 2017, while Hong Kong slipped as offshore risk appetite softened ahead of the Labour Day break. Singapore's STI edged lower, with REIT and property weakness outweighing a solid week from the three local banks.
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United States
Market Overview
The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all finished the week higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending April at record closing highs. The month’s advance was driven primarily by earnings strength, while crude’s earlier spike and geopolitical risk proved important but ultimately secondary over the full month. The FOMC held the fed funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, but three dissents against the easing language — the most under Powell's tenure — sent a clear hawkish signal; Powell also confirmed he will remain on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends.
(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)
Major Indices – Weekly Performance
· Dow Jones: +0.55%
· S&P 500: +0.91%
· Nasdaq: +1.12%
April was a standout
month across global equities. The Nasdaq surged +15.29% to lead all major
indices, followed by the S&P 500 at +10.42% and the Dow at +7.14% — the
strongest U.S. monthly sweep in years. Asian markets also participated, with
the SSE gaining +5.66% and the HSI recovering +3.99% for the month, while the
STI posted a more modest +0.56%.
(Refer to the major
indices' monthly performance table below.)
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ Magnificent 7 largely clear the bar; Alphabet up, Meta punished
Five of the seven reported — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft — and all beat earnings expectations. Alphabet jumped after strong AI and cloud demand validated its heavy infrastructure spend. Meta was the outlier, falling sharply after announcing a further capex increase and issuing $25 billion in new corporate bonds. Despite the divergent stock reactions, the cohort reinforced the technology sector's ~45% Q1 earnings growth outlook, sharply revised from roughly 26% six months ago.
2️⃣ Q1 earnings tracking 14%-plus — sixth straight double-digit quarter
With more than half the S&P 500 reported, first-quarter earnings growth is tracking above 14%, extending an unbroken run of double-digit quarterly profit growth. Strength is broad-based: technology, materials, financials, and industrials all posting solid double-digit gains. Health care and energy are the only two sectors with year-over-year profit declines, though both are expected to recover. All 11 sectors are projected to contribute to full-year 2026 earnings growth, now seen exceeding 18%.
3️⃣ AI capex accelerating — $700 billion collective cloud spend this year
The five largest cloud platforms — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle — are on track to invest roughly $700 billion in AI infrastructure in 2026, up around 80% year over year. The spend provides a direct earnings tailwind for semiconductor companies and data-centre equipment suppliers, with productivity benefits expected to eventually reach sectors like industrials as AI adoption broadens.
4️⃣ Fed holds,
hawkish dissents change the tone
Three FOMC members dissented against the easing language — the most under Powell's tenure — with the direction of dissent clearly hawkish. Core PCE rose 3.2% in March, moving further from the 2% target, while December oil futures pushed to new post-conflict highs near $80 per barrel. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000, one of the lowest readings on record, removing any urgency to ease.
5️⃣ Economy solid: GDP +2.0%,
business investment the standout
Real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualised pace in Q1, rebounding from last year's government shutdown drag. Final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 2.5%, reflecting healthy underlying private-sector momentum. Business investment was the clear standout, with IT equipment and software spending alone contributing roughly 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth. Consumer spending slowed modestly but held firm despite climbing fuel costs.
6️⃣ Outlook: Balanced
risk/reward after a sharp monthly advance
After April's 10%-plus surge, upside and downside risks look more symmetrical. The earnings backdrop remains the primary anchor — as long as corporate profits continue to accelerate, investors have reason to stay constructive. But with the Fed firmly on hold, energy prices elevated, and bond markets pricing in more inflation persistence than equities appear to be, a pause or consolidation from here is the more likely near-term path.
S&P 500 Sectors in Focus
Energy (XLE +3.48%) was the clear weekly
winner, with WTI crude's 7%-plus gain lifting integrated majors and E&P
names; the sector is now up +31.63% YTD, the best-performing sector by a wide
margin. Consumer Staples (XLP +1.13%), Technology (XLK +1.03%), and
Communication Services (XLC +1.02%) all closed above the SPY benchmark of
+0.94%. Financials (XLF +0.97%) continued to benefit from solid earnings across
the sector. The lone laggard was Materials (XLB -1.10%), while Consumer
Discretionary (XLY -0.05%) was flat as higher energy costs continued to weigh
on spending sentiment.
(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly
performance table below.)
Technical Snapshot
The S&P 500 reclaimed all of its
Iran-conflict losses and closed at a new record; RSI is approaching 65, leaving
upside momentum intact but room narrowing. Support sits in the 6,900–7,000
zone, with prior highs now acting as a floor. The Nasdaq's MACD remains firmly
bullish off the back of the semiconductor surge. The Dow remains range-bound
between 48,000 and 50,000, lagging the broader rally as software and industrial
weakness drags.
π Weekly charts:
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China / Hong Kong
Market Overview
Mainland Chinese equities ended the week
modestly higher, supported by Moody’s decision to revise China’s sovereign
outlook to stable from negative while affirming the A1 rating. Sentiment also
improved after industrial profits rose 15.8% year over year in March, the
fastest pace in half a year, led by equipment and high-tech manufacturing. The blue
chip benchmark CSI 300 Index edged up 0.80%, the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added
0.79%, and the Hang Seng Index slipped 0.78% for the week, as softer offshore
risk appetite and cautious positioning ahead of the extended Labour Day break
weighed on Hong Kong. Mainland markets are closed from May 1 to May 5 and
resume on May 6; Hong Kong closed May 1 and reopens May 4.
·
CSI 300: +0.8%
· Shanghai Composite: +0.79%
· Hang Seng Index: -0.78%
Key Highlights and outlook
1️⃣ Moody's upgrades China's outlook to "stable" — first in years
Moody's revised China's sovereign credit outlook from "negative" to "stable" while affirming its A1 rating, citing resilience in growth and fiscal capacity despite external headwinds. The agency acknowledged rising government debt but argued that low interest rates and high domestic savings will contain debt-servicing costs. It also highlighted China's diversified economy and rising competitiveness in higher-value manufacturing as structural offsets to demographic pressures.
2️⃣ Industrial profits +15.8% YoY in March — fastest Q1 pace since 2017
Industrial profits rose 15.8% year over year in March, accelerating from the 15.2% gain in the January–February period, with Q1 as a whole up 15.5% year over year. Gains were concentrated in equipment manufacturing, high-tech industries, and AI-linked electronics — reflected in SMIC surging +10.26% and WuXi AppTec jumping +9.94% on the week. Businesses exposed to rising raw material costs saw margins squeezed, widening the divergence across sectors.
3️⃣ Politburo signals steady
hand — targeted support, no broad stimulus pivot
The Politburo acknowledged a solid start to 2026 but noted that the foundation for sustained recovery still needs reinforcing. The tone was targeted support rather than broad-based stimulus: continued backing for domestic demand, employment, and strategic industries, with emphasis on energy security, AI adoption, and supply chain self-reliance. The directive to accelerate a "modern industrial system" keeps policy-favoured advanced manufacturing and semiconductors in focus.
4️⃣ HSI constituents sharply
bifurcated — tech leads, heavyweights drag
PetroChina (+6.18%) and energy names benefited from elevated oil prices, while Haier (+5.59%) and China Life (+5.38%) also outperformed. On the other side, China Hongqiao (-10.22%), WH Group (-10.10%), Xiaomi (-6.99%), and CM Bank (-6.55%) were the heaviest drags, reflecting commodity cost pressures and sector-specific headwinds rather than a broad market move.
5️⃣ Outlook — first post-holiday
sessions will set the tone for May
Mainland markets reopen on May 6 and those initial sessions will be a clean read on how institutional investors interpret the Moody's upgrade and industrial profit data against any global developments over the break. The medium-term thesis — manufacturing-led recovery, targeted policy support, AI investment expansion — is intact, but near-term upside may be capped without a meaningful broadening of consumer or property stimulus.
Technical Snapshot
The SSE held above 4,100 through the holiday-shortened week,
maintaining its recent consolidation range; the first two sessions after the
May 6 reopening will be the key directional signal. The HSI remains in a
sideways range, with support near 25,400 and resistance around 26,200. A firm
open on the mainland would validate the cautiously constructive view heading
into Q2; a weak open alongside a soft Caixin PMI would raise questions about
whether onshore markets are adequately pricing current risks.
(Refer to the Hang Seng Index
constituents’ weekly performance table below.)
π Weekly charts:
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Singapore
Market Overview
The Straits Times Index edged lower on the week as REIT, property, and industrial weakness outweighed a solid showing from the three local banks. DBS remained the standout, while OCBC and UOB were steadier and are now the next earnings catalysts for income-focused investors.
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ Banks were the week's bright spot —
DBS leads with +2.81%
The three local banks were the primary
positive contributors this week. DBS rose +2.81% to $58.50, OCBC gained +0.88%
to $21.90, and UOB edged up +0.42% to $36.15. DBS reported Q1 results on April
30, with the stock's strong weekly performance suggesting the market was
satisfied with the outcome. UOB (May 7) and OCBC (May 8) are the next
catalysts, with NIM guidance and dividend declarations the key items for income
investors.
2️⃣ REITs broadly under pressure as
rate-cut expectations fade
The REIT sector was the week's clearest drag. Mapletree PACT dropped -7.86%, CapCom Trust fell -4.84%, Frasers L&C Trust declined -2.54%, and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT slipped -2.35%. With the Fed turning more hawkish and core PCE holding above 3%, the near-term case for meaningful rate relief has weakened, keeping rate-sensitive yield instruments under pressure. Keppel DC REIT (-0.84%) held up comparatively well given its data-centre positioning.
3️⃣ Industrials
and conglomerates soften on global uncertainty
Keppel Ltd fell -5.89%, Jardine Matheson dropped -4.30%, ST Engineering declined -2.72%, and Sembcorp Industries slipped -2.35%. The weakness appears sentiment-driven rather than fundamental, tied to broader uncertainty around energy prices and the pace of Fed easing. Wilmar's -6.96% decline stood out as a commodity-linked name responding to softer agricultural pricing and lingering concerns over Chinese consumer demand.
4️⃣Outlook — YTD cushion
holds, but REIT overhang and bank results are the near-term binary
The broader STI still has a reasonable year-to-date cushion
versus several global peers, but the market’s near-term direction is likely to
be shaped by bank earnings and the persistence of higher-for-longer rates. If
UOB and OCBC deliver stable net interest margins and dividends, the index
should remain relatively well supported.
Technical Snapshot
The STI's -0.21% weekly dip was
contained, holding well above the 4,850 support level. The index has traded in
a 4,830–5,000 range in recent weeks, and a sustained close above 4,950 would
improve the near-term picture. Bank stocks remain the primary upward force;
REIT weakness is the structural headwind. Momentum indicators are mildly
negative but not oversold, pointing to consolidation rather than a meaningful
breakdown.
(Refer to the STI weekly performance
table below.)
π Weekly chart:
π
Week Ahead (4-8 May 2026)
The biggest binary this week is China’s reopening on May 6,
which will show whether onshore investors treat the Moody’s upgrade and
industrial profit data as durable positives. In the U.S., ISM Services and the
University of Michigan sentiment reading will be the key macro releases, while
earnings remain the main support for risk assets.
In Singapore, UOB on May 7 and OCBC on May 8 are the main
local catalysts. For the STI, the combination of bank guidance and REIT
sensitivity to rates should remain the main near-term market theme.
π️ Overarching
Watchpoint
China's market reopening on May 6 is the single biggest
binary of the week. A firm open would validate the cautiously constructive view
built on Moody's and the industrial profit momentum; a weak open — particularly
alongside a soft Caixin Services PMI — would signal that onshore investors are
reassessing macro and geopolitical risk, and could reset sentiment across Asian
markets heading into the second half of Q2.
Source: Some content and data are
excerpted from publicly available market reports.
