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For the week ended Mar 13, 2026, global equities extended their pullback, as renewed conflict in Iran, surging oil back near or above 95–100 dollars a barrel, and fading hopes for early Fed rate cuts weighed on risk sentiment. Asian markets were generally softer, with Japan, Korea and Hong Kong all under pressure as investors digested the stronger dollar, elevated volatility (VIX near the high‑20s), and the risk that geopolitics could further delay monetary easing.
U.S. Stocks – Weekly Wrap
Market Overview
U.S. equities declined for the third
straight week, with the S&P 500(SPX), Dow(DJI) and Nasdaq(COMP) falling
around 1.3%–2.0% as renewed conflict in Iran, surging oil back near or above
95–100 dollars a barrel, and fading hopes for early Fed rate cuts weighed on
risk sentiment.
(Refer to the major indices’ weekly
performance tables below.)
Major Indices – Weekly Performance
· Dow Jones: -1.99%
· S&P 500: -1.60%
· Nasdaq Composite: -1.26%
Key Highlights for the Week and Outlook
1️⃣ Oil spike
WTI crude has surged more than 30% year‑to‑date and recently traded in the high‑70s
to high‑80s as markets reacted to effective
disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries around 20% of global
seaborne oil and a significant share of LNG flows.
2️⃣ Inflation Improved
Heading into the latest oil spike, the inflation backdrop was improving:
headline CPI had eased to around 2.4% and core to about 2.5% year over year,
the lowest since 2021, as shelter costs gradually cooled. A sustained rise in
energy prices from here could push headline inflation back above 3% even if
core remains more contained, complicating—but not derailing—the disinflation
narrative.
3️⃣ Fed FOMC meeting Mar 17-18
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at this week’s meeting, but the
combination of firmer energy prices and sticky service inflation has already
pushed markets to price a later and shallower easing cycle. Where investors
once anticipated a series of cuts, current pricing implies only one or two
reductions by the end of 2026, consistent with the idea of delay rather than
cancellation of the easing path
4️⃣ Growth resilience
Global PMI data remain in expansion territory, with the J.P. Morgan Global
Composite PMI around the mid‑50s equivalent and consistent with
roughly 2.5%–2.6% annualized global GDP growth—below the pre‑pandemic
trend, but clearly not recessionary. That backdrop supports the view that the
world economy entered this shock with decent momentum, even if growth is
running in a lower gear.
5️⃣ U.S. oil‑shock
sensitivity
The U.S. economy is structurally less exposed to oil shocks than in past
cycles: the country has been a net total energy exporter since 2019, and a
larger share of output now comes from services rather than heavy industry,
making overall energy intensity lower than in prior decades.
S&P 500 Sectors in Focus
U.S. sectors posted a mixed but broadly
risk‑off week, with only Energy and Utilities
finishing higher while cyclical and growth areas lagged. Energy was the clear
outperformer, rising 2.0% as investors rotated into oil‑linked
names amid elevated crude prices, while Utilities also eked out a small gain.
The broad market (SPY) fell about 1.5%, with the weakest performance coming
from Financials (-3.32%), Consumer Discretionary (-3.13%), Industrials (-3.11%)
and Communication Services (-2.56%), underscoring pressure on cyclicals and
rate‑sensitive sectors.
(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly
performance table below.)
Technical snapshot – major U.S. indices
For the week, all three major U.S.
benchmarks—Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq—closed lower, confirming a broad-based
corrective phase rather than a narrow tech-driven pullback. with the Dow
dropping 2.0% (worst performer), S&P 500 -1.6%, and Nasdaq -1.3% (most
resilient). Dow's outsized decline reflects cyclical/value selling; S&P
shows broad distribution per your sector data; Nasdaq holds up on growth/AI
favoritism. Classic risk-off action amid oil shock and fading rate-cut
hopes—rallies likely capped until volatility eases.
π Weekly charts:
China / Hong Kong Markets
Market Overview
Chinese equities were mixed over the
week. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index edged 0.19%, and the Shanghai
Composite Index(SSE) retreated 0.70%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng
Index fell 1.13%. Overall resilience despite global volatility.
·
CSI 300: +0.19%
· Shanghai Composite: -0.70%
· Hang Seng Index: -1.13%
Key Highlights – China & Hong Kong
1️⃣ Inflation Acceleration
Consumer inflation in China hit its fastest pace in over three years, with the
CPI rising 1.3% year-over-year in February, driven by Chinese New Year holiday
demand for travel and tourism services. Core inflation climbed to 1.8% YoY—the highest since March 2019—indicating
firmer underlying price pressures. Producer prices stayed in deflation for the
41st straight month but saw the mildest decline since July 2024, aided by
rising metals and oil costs.
2️⃣ Robust Export Surge
China's exports jumped 21.8% in January-February combined (to smooth CNY
effects), far exceeding forecasts, fueled by global AI/tech demand for
electronics despite U.S. trade declines offset by gains to Europe and Southeast
Asia. Imports rose 19.8%, pushing the trade surplus to a record $213.6 billion
and signaling strong external demand amid resilient domestic absorption.
3️⃣ AI agent boosts Chinese
technology stocks
Chinese tech stocks rallied on adoption
of OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent enabling autonomous task execution and
marking a shift from chatbots to decision-making systems. Gains moderated as
banks, brokerages, and government entities issued usage cautions and restricted
employee access, tempering near-term enthusiasm for early adopters and
infrastructure plays.
(Refer to the Hang Seng Index
constituents’ weekly performance table below.)
π Weekly charts:
Singapore Market – Weekly Wrap
Market Overview
The Straits Times Index (STI) edged down 0.12% to 4,842.27, a shallow pullback
from February peaks above 5,000 amid global oil volatility—resilient relative
to U.S./HK declines. Commodities led: Wilmar International
surged 8.88% on palm oil/China demand; DFI Retail +8.06%, Hongkong Land +5.13%
on property rotation.
Market Leaders
Outperformers:
- Wilmar
(F34): +8.88%
- DFI
Retail (D01): +8.06%
Banks Anchor Resilience
Big three banks held defensive: DBS
+0.56%, UOB +0.25%, OCBC -0.91%—steady NIMs/dividends offsetting rate
pressures, comprising ~50% index weight.
(Refer to the STI weekly performance
table below.)
Technical Snapshot – STI
The STI remains in a strong primary uptrend on a multi‑month view, even after
snapping its nine‑week winning streak. It closed just above its 50‑day MA
around 4,846, suggesting the current move is still a pullback within an uptrend
rather than a confirmed trend change.
The STI maintains its primary uptrend on
multi-month charts despite a three-week retreat, closing at 4,842.27—precisely
at its 50-day moving average, confirming consolidation rather than reversal. The
index has had a shallow 1.95% monthly pullback from the February all-time high
of 5,041, Key support at c.4,800 holds firm; a break below risks 4,700, but
resilient bank weights and commodity rotation suggest rallies toward 4,850
resistance remain viable within the uptrend.
π Weekly chart:
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