A Clearer Path into Sep: NVIDIA Delivers, Warsh Warns

For the week of Aug 28, two of the year’s most consequential events landed within 48 hours of each other. U.S. equities finished higher across the major benchmarks as NVIDIA’s results reignited the AI trade, even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole that lifted short-dated yields and revived expectations of a rate hike. China and Hong Kong diverged, with mainland semiconductor and AI-hardware names rallying while Hong Kong lagged on a large Alibaba equity placement and broad internet weakness. Singapore eked out a marginal gain, with shipbuilders and telcos offsetting softness in REITs and Hong Kong-linked constituents.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

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🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. indices closed higher across the majors in a week defined by NVIDIA’s earnings and Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut, though trading volumes were generally light and mid- and smaller-cap benchmarks lost ground. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led with a gain of 0.85%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) at 0.53% and the S&P 500 (SPX) at 0.49%. Declining oil prices and an in-line core PCE reading helped offset a hawkish repricing at the front end of the Treasury curve.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.53%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +0.49%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.85%

August Monthly Performance

August closed with the major U.S. benchmarks still carrying solid year-to-date advances — the Nasdaq Composite up 13.60%, the S&P 500 up 12.65% and the Dow up 11.44% — with the month’s two defining catalysts arriving only in its final week. NVIDIA’s results reaffirmed that AI capital spending continues to accelerate, while Warsh’s Jackson Hole address removed lingering doubt over the Fed’s inflation target and its willingness to act. Investors therefore enter a seasonally weak September with materially more clarity on both the AI growth story and the policy backdrop than they had a month ago.

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Warsh Reaffirms 2% Target, Keeps Hikes Alive 

Warsh struck a hawkish tone on Friday, describing the economy as resilient and financial conditions as not restrictive, while underlying inflation has not improved enough to declare victory. He reaffirmed the 2% PCE target as firm and signalled further tightening remains possible. Futures markets lifted implied odds of a September hike to roughly 60%, from about 35% beforehand.

2️⃣ NVIDIA Delivers a Blowout Quarter and Guide 

Fiscal second-quarter revenue surged 106% year over year, extending a 15-quarter streak of beats, with third-quarter guidance well ahead of expectations. Management projected revenue growth near 70% next year against consensus around 46%, and was explicit that the outlook is supply-constrained — customer demand implies growth closer to 100%. Shares rose 8.7% on Thursday.

3️⃣ Core PCE In Line, Headline Runs Hotter 

The headline PCE price index rose 0.2% in July and 3.7% from a year earlier, both firmer than economists anticipated. Core PCE rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually, matching expectations and limiting the market reaction. Consumer surveys stayed downbeat, with University of Michigan sentiment falling to 51.7 in August from 55.2 in July.

4️⃣ Curve Flattens on Hawkish Repricing 

The two-year Treasury yield rose notably after Warsh’s remarks as investors priced a higher probability of a near-term hike, while 10- and 30-year yields moved up only modestly. Edward Jones argues elevated long yields remain a valuation constraint rather than a threat to the economy or corporate earnings, with the 10-year still below nominal GDP growth.

5️⃣ Labour and Goods Data Stay Firm 

Durable goods orders rose a stronger-than-expected 1.1% in July, driven largely by transportation equipment. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to 203,000, with the four-week moving average stable, suggesting layoffs remain limited. The combination supports Warsh’s characterisation of an economy resilient enough to absorb a firmer policy stance.

6️⃣ September Seasonality Meets a Constructive Backdrop 

September is historically the weakest month for equities, an effect often amplified in midterm election years. Analysts note that past weakness typically arrived when markets were already under pressure — not the case today, with earnings growth fast, credit spreads tight and volatility low. It continues to favour a mix of AI and cyclical exposure.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector leadership tracked the week’s two catalysts closely. Communication Services and Technology led the index higher on the back of NVIDIA’s results and a broader recovery in software, while Financials also outperformed as the front end of the curve repriced. The laggards were defensive and rate-sensitive: Health Care fell furthest, with Industrials, Real Estate and Energy also finishing lower, the latter pressured as Brent settled below $90 amid hopes of restored energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Breadth was narrow — only three of the eleven sectors finished the week in positive territory.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,402.42, both extending modest gains without the decisive breakout that would confirm a fresh leg higher. The Dow ended at 53,559.99, its advance narrower than the headline suggests given weakness across industrial and health care constituents. On the weekly charts, SPX, the Nasdaq and the DJI all remain in sideways consolidation just below their recent highs, though general weekly uptrend well intact for all the three.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weeklychart

- SPX weeklychart

- Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were mixed, with mainland markets proving more resilient than Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 1.20% as semiconductor and AI-related shares rallied strongly midweek following NVIDIA’s results, while the CSI 300 slipped 0.21% and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell 1.63% in local currency terms. Hong Kong lagged as weakness among several large internet and consumer companies earlier in the week outweighed gains in selected technology stocks.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -0.21%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): +1.20%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -1.63%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Alibaba Placement Reopens the AI Returns Debate 

Alibaba’s HKD80 billion (USD10.2 billion) equity placement weighed on Hong Kong technology shares early in the week and renewed scrutiny of the capital required to build AI infrastructure. Completed on Wednesday, proceeds will fund computing capacity, hyperscale data centres and cloud upgrades. Alibaba ended the week down 7.40%.

2️⃣ Domestic AI Ecosystem Turns More Competitive 

Z.AI unveiled its lower-cost GLM-5.3-Flash model, saying it ran entirely on Chinese AI chips during testing, while MiniMax reported first-half revenue up 283% year over year. Alibaba released Qwen3.8-Flash, claiming improved performance at lower training cost. Investors are differentiating sharply between infrastructure beneficiaries and platforms still proving monetisation.

3️⃣ Industrial Profits Slow for a Third Month 

July industrial profit growth eased to 11.2% year over year from 15.1% in June, with the seven-month figure at 17.6% against 18.7% for the first half. Profits in computer, communications and electronic equipment more than doubled year to date, while automobiles and electrical machinery declined — an uneven recovery mirrored in equity leadership.

4️⃣ ChangXin Memory Posts Blowout First Half

ChangXin Memory (688825.SH) reported first-half revenue of RMB150.3 billion, up 873.6%, and attributable profit of RMB77.6 billion against a prior-year loss — well above its IPO prospectus range. Main-business gross margin reached 84.8% as DRAM shortages lifted both prices and volumes. No dividend was proposed.

5️⃣ Second-Quarter Results Favour Tech and Healthcare 

Maybank KE notes more than 60% of MSCI China constituents have reported, with around half beating. Technology and healthcare led growth while consumer staples lagged, underlining still-weak domestic consumption. Large-cap internet results were mixed: cloud, AI and gaming trends held up, but elevated AI capex weighed on free cash flow and near-term earnings expectations.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng closed at 25,584.79, down 1.63% on the week and back into marginally negative territory year to date. Breadth was poor, with losses concentrated in exporters, logistics and consumer names — Shenzhou International, OOIL and Zhongsheng each fell more than 10% — while pharmaceutical and energy names including Hansoh and Sinopec led the gainers. The Shanghai Composite’s close at 3,952.18 leaves the mainland index probing the 4,000 level, and the divergence between the two markets is likely to persist while AI-hardware leadership sits onshore.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weeklychart

- HSI weeklychart

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🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) closed the week up 0.19% at 5,699.93, a marginal gain that masked a sharp split beneath the surface. Shipbuilders, telcos and the exchange advanced, while REITs and Hong Kong-listed constituents sold off. The index remains the region’s standout performer this year, up 22.68% year to date.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +0.19%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Narrow Gain Masks a Two-Speed Market 

The STI’s 0.19% advance rested on a thin base, with just 11 of its 30 constituents closing higher. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding led at +2.94%, followed by Singtel at +2.73%, Wilmar at +2.70% and SGX at +2.49%. A handful of large-cap gains carried an index whose tail was firmly negative.

2️⃣ Banks Contribute Little in Either Direction 

The three local banks barely moved: UOB rose 0.62%, OCBC 0.29% and DBS 0.20%. With no results due, the trio drifted with the global rates backdrop rather than any local catalyst. Year to date the divergence is wide — OCBC is up 57.24%, DBS 35.11% and UOB 16.31%.

3️⃣ REITs Sag as Long Yields Stay Elevated 

Rate-sensitive names were among the week’s weakest. Keppel DC REIT fell 2.65%, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust 1.59%, Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.37% and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT 1.22%, while Mapletree Industrial Trust was unchanged. Almost every S-REIT in the index remains negative year to date.

4️⃣ Hong Kong-Linked Names Drag the Tail 

The steepest declines came from constituents with Hong Kong exposure, tracking the Hang Seng lower: Jardine Matheson fell 4.83%, DFI Retail 3.55% and Hongkong Land 3.19%. UOL dropped 3.87% and Genting Singapore 3.82%, leaving property and gaming among the weakest performers on the week.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The STI’s close at 5,699.93 leaves it sitting right on the 5,700 handle after another week of incremental progress. Momentum has visibly slowed from the pace set earlier in the year, with the index grinding rather than trending. A sustained break above 5,700 would keep the uptrend intact, while failure there points to consolidation into September.

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weeklychart

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📅 Week Ahead (31 Aug – 4 Sep 2026)

The U.S. calendar is dominated by labour data. JOLTS job openings for July land on Tuesday, 1 Sep, ahead of the August employment situation report on Friday, 4 Sep — the first major labour reading since Jackson Hole and a direct input into September rate pricing. ISM’s manufacturing and services surveys also print during the week.

China’s official NBS purchasing managers’ indices for August are due on Monday, 31 Aug, with the Caixin manufacturing gauge following at the start of September. After industrial profit growth slowed for a third consecutive month, the surveys will test whether the gap between AI-linked manufacturing and domestic demand is widening. Hong Kong’s interim results season winds down.

Singapore’s August PMI readings are released early in the week alongside regional manufacturing surveys. With no major local corporate events scheduled, the STI is likely to take its direction from U.S. rate expectations and Hong Kong. Malaysia’s KLCI enters the week on the back foot after slipping 0.61%.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

Friday’s August payrolls report is the week’s single binary risk. Warsh has told markets the Fed still has work to do, and futures now put roughly 60% odds on a September hike; a firm payroll print with a stable unemployment rate would harden that pricing and push front-end yields higher into the 15–16 Sep FOMC. A clear miss would do the opposite. Equity markets, having just repriced higher on NVIDIA’s numbers, are carrying little cushion for a hawkish surprise.

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Yields Steal the Spotlight: Equities Take a Breather

For the week of Aug 21, global equities lost ground as a sharp climb in long-term U.S. Treasury yields — with the 30-year reaching its highest level since 2007 — soured risk appetite and pressured technology and AI-related shares. In the U.S., the major benchmarks retreated even as August business activity accelerated and corporate earnings stayed resilient. Chinese markets diverged, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng surging on a health-care rally while mainland gauges slipped on a broad July activity slowdown. In Singapore, the Straits Times Index eased as outsized losses in a few heavyweights outweighed gains among property and offshore-marine names.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished lower across the board as elevated Treasury yields, renewed U.S.–Iran tensions, higher oil prices, and weakness in semiconductor and AI-related shares weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led the retreat, dropping 2.05%, followed by the S&P 500 (SPX) at -1.43%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) held up best, easing 0.85%. Mixed retail earnings reports added to a cautious tone that persisted even as data pointed to accelerating business activity.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.85%

- S&P 500 (SPX): -1.43%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): -2.05%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Treasury Yields Climb to Multi-Year Highs

Long-term Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007. Concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and heavy government and corporate debt issuance — including financing tied to AI capital spending — drove the sell-off, while higher oil prices amid renewed U.S.–Iran tensions added to inflation worries.

2️⃣ Treasury Buyback Offers Only Fleeting Relief

Treasuries briefly rallied after the Treasury Department said it would at least double its planned long-term debt buybacks from September, lifting purchases to at least $4 billion per operation. The 30-year yield posted its largest daily decline in over a year, but much of the move reversed as investors questioned whether the program could offset broader pressures. Edward Jones expects the 10-year yield to trade between 4.5% and 5.0% for the rest of the year.

3️⃣ Fed Minutes Underscore Inflation Uncertainty

Minutes from the Fed's July meeting showed participants generally expected inflation to moderate through year-end, but described their outlooks as "highly uncertain" with risks skewed to the upside. Officials noted that further policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation failed to decline, reinforcing a cautious tone on the rate path.

4️⃣ Business Activity Accelerates Sharply

The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI jumped to 56.0 in August from 54.5, its highest reading since April 2022, led by strength in services. Employment rose at its fastest pace since January 2025, while the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauges both beat estimates and hit their highest levels since 2021.

5️⃣ Corporate Earnings Growth Stays Robust

Per Edward Jones, S&P 500 second-quarter earnings are on pace to grow more than 48% year over year, with full-year 2026 earnings tracking a 31% gain. Strength extended beyond mega-cap technology, with small- and mid-cap earnings also expected to rise more than 20%, underpinning a constructive medium-term equity backdrop.

6️⃣ Housing Stays Soft as Rates Bite

Housing data remained weak: pending home sales fell 2.3% in July to their lowest since January, and housing starts dropped more than 12%. The NAHB homebuilder index edged up but stayed subdued, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.65%. Edward Jones continues to favor equities over fixed income, preferring U.S. large- and mid-cap and emerging-market stocks.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector performance was sharply divided, reflecting a rotation away from growth. Health Care led decisively, while Energy and Materials also finished higher as oil firmed and value-oriented pockets found support. At the other end, Technology was the weakest sector amid the pullback in semiconductor and AI-related names, with Utilities and Industrials also lagging as higher yields pressured rate-sensitive and capital-intensive groups. The wide dispersion underscored how the surge in long-term yields reshaped leadership beneath the index surface. 

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) pulled back from record territory, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq bearing the brunt of the AI-led selling while the Dow Jones (DJI) proved more resilient given its lighter growth weighting. Momentum cooled after August's run to fresh highs, leaving near-term direction closely tied to the path of Treasury yields. On the charts, the major indices appear to be entering a phase of sideways consolidation just below their recent peaks, digesting the rate-driven pullback rather than signaling a decisive trend reversal. Watch SPX pullback to where it was break-out previously, see wether it can hold at resistance-turn-support 7610-7630 area.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weekly chart

- SPX weekly chart

- Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities diverged sharply, with Hong Kong sharply outpacing the mainland. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) jumped 3.55%, powered by a strong rally in health-care and pharmaceutical names, while the Shanghai Composite (SSE) slipped 0.56% and the CSI 300 fell 1.01% as a broad July activity slowdown and a pullback in semiconductor and robotics shares weighed on the mainland. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -1.01%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.56%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +3.55%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Hong Kong Diverges on Health-Care Rally

The Hang Seng Index surged 3.55%, driven by a broad advance in health-care and biotech names including Sino Biopharm, WuXi Bio, Innovent and BeOne Medicines. The rotation into Hong Kong-listed large caps lifted the benchmark even as mainland indices lagged, marking a clear divergence in regional sentiment for the week.

2️⃣ July Activity Data Disappoint Broadly

China's July data softened across the board: industrial output grew 4.5% year over year (down from 5.3%), retail sales rose just 0.6%, and fixed-asset investment contracted 6.7% for the first seven months. Maybank KE likewise flagged the softening momentum, strengthening the case for further fiscal and monetary support.

3️⃣ Property Slump Persists as Policy Support Expands

Real estate investment shrank 19.2% year over year through July, while new home prices dipped 0.1% month on month. Authorities rolled out fresh support: from September 20, residents may withdraw Housing Provident Fund savings for more purposes, and Shanghai further eased down-payment requirements for second-home purchases beyond the outer ring.

4️⃣ Embodied-AI Fervor Grips the IPO Market

Humanoid-robot maker Unitree Robotics closed 460% higher on its Shanghai debut, having earlier spiked over 600%, with the offering more than 8,000 times oversubscribed. The listing — following memory-chipmaker CXMT's blockbuster July IPO — highlighted intense appetite for "embodied AI," even as chip and robotics stocks pulled back globally during the week.

5️⃣ Maybank KE Favors Structural-Priority Names

Maybank KE prefers companies aligned with China's structural priorities: Shanghai Biren for domestic AI-computing exposure, Sunny Optical for its "Optics + AI" strategy and smartphone premiumisation, Kuaishou for AI-driven monetisation despite mixed 2Q26 results, and Galaxy Entertainment for a Macau recovery ahead of National Day Golden Week.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) broke sharply higher, back to its 2-month high, powered by health-care leadership and a rotation into Hong Kong-listed large caps, extending its recovery even as mainland benchmarks stalled. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) and CSI 300 stayed rangebound-to-soft, pressured by weak macro data and profit-taking in chip and robotics names. Near-term, the HSI's momentum looks constructive provided policy support follows through, though mainland gauges may remain capped until activity data stabilise.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weekly chart

- HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) eased 0.95% for the week, pulling back from near record levels. Declines were concentrated in a handful of heavyweights — most notably SATS, alongside the local banks UOB and OCBC and industrial name ST Engineering — while property and offshore-marine counters such as Sembcorp Industries, UOL and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding advanced. The benchmark nonetheless held on to a year-to-date gain of 22.44%. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): -0.95%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Eases from Elevated Levels

The Straits Times Index slipped 0.95% over the week, with decliners outnumbering gainers among the index heavyweights. Despite the pullback, the benchmark retained a robust year-to-date gain of 22.44%, keeping it among the region's stronger performers in 2026.

2️⃣ SATS Leads Decliners with a Steep Drop

SATS was by far the week's weakest STI constituent, tumbling 13.22% and dwarfing every other index move. Even after the sharp decline, the ground-handling and in-flight-catering group remained modestly positive year-to-date at +6.82%.

3️⃣ Banks Diverge as UOB and OCBC Retreat

The local lenders traded unevenly: UOB fell 3.04% and OCBC declined 2.55%, while DBS bucked the trend with a 0.62% gain. Year-to-date, the trio stayed firmly higher, led by OCBC at +56.78%, DBS at +34.85% and UOB at +15.60%.

Singapore Spotlight — UltraGreen.ai (ULG)

The week's standout SGX move came from outside the STI. Fluorescence-guided-surgery play UltraGreen.ai (ULG) collapsed roughly 49% after Zydus secured 180-day FDA competitive-generic exclusivity for a generic indocyanine green (ICG) dye on 4 August, with Provepharm's Zyogreen also advancing toward the U.S. market. DBS downgraded the stock to HOLD from BUY and cut its 12-month target to USD0.80 (from USD1.95), noting the shares now discount its "Bear 1" scenario of a 20% ASP decline and 5% volume decline. Not all houses are as cautious — some argue new entrants need years to build supply and hospital/GPO relationships, leaving UltraGreen's long-established regulatory dossier and imaging platform as a durable moat. The split view keeps the stock an overhang until competitor pricing and commercial traction become clearer.

Technical Snapshot

The Straits Times Index (STI) pulled back after trading near multi-year highs, with the retreat driven largely by outsized losses in a few heavyweights rather than broad-based selling. Breadth was mixed, as gains in property and offshore-marine counters offset weakness in the banks and SATS. Near-term, the index's elevated year-to-date position leaves it sensitive to profit-taking, though the broader uptrend remains intact absent a wider risk-off shift.

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weekly chart

🌐 Beyond Equities — Cross-Asset Watch

The same rates catalyst that pressured equities rippled across other assets this week, with gold the standout beneficiary.

- Gold: Spot hit a three-month high near US$4,540–4,600/oz on Friday, up ~4–5% on the week — a third straight weekly gain.

- WTI Crude: Held above US$85/bbl as renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk kept energy prices bid.

- US Dollar: Softened broadly, with the Treasury's buyback-driven liquidity signal weighing on the greenback.

- Treasury Yields: The 30-year spiked to ~5.34%, its highest since 2007, before the buyback expansion pulled the long end back.

Gold in Focus

The rally's fuel has shifted from the earlier Singapore/Hong Kong gold-hub and PBOC-buying narrative to U.S. rates plumbing. The Treasury's move to double long-dated buybacks — with Secretary Bessent signalling further support if needed — pushed yields and the dollar lower and reignited bullion. A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for non-USD buyers, lifting the whole precious-metals complex. Singapore investors can track the move via GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) and its SGX-listed lines O87 (US$) and GSD (S$), or COMEX futures (/GC), with the December contract trading around US$4,620.

 

📌 Analyst Calls This Week

Notable rating, target-price and house-view changes across the coverage universe:

- DBS — UltraGreen.ai (ULG): Downgrade to HOLD from BUY; 12-month TP cut to USD0.80 from USD1.95 on rising generic-competition risk to ASPs.

- Maybank KE — China structural plays: Reiterates preference for Shanghai Biren, Sunny Optical, Kuaishou and Galaxy Entertainment as beneficiaries of China's policy priorities.

 

📅 Week Ahead (24–28 Aug 2026)

The U.S. calendar is unusually heavy. Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 results after the close on Aug 26 — a key barometer for the AI complex following the week's semiconductor weakness — alongside the July PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The Jackson Hole symposium (Aug 27–29) then takes center stage, headlined by Chair Kevin Warsh's first keynote as Fed chief.

In China, markets will look for fresh policy signals after the soft July activity and property data, with industrial-profits figures also due. Sentiment in Hong Kong will hinge on whether the health-care-led rally can broaden, while momentum in "embodied-AI" and technology IPOs remains a focal point.

Locally, investors will monitor Singapore's July inflation and industrial-production prints for a read on the domestic economy. Regional markets will otherwise take their cue from Jackson Hole and the Nvidia print, both of which could set the tone for Asian risk appetite into month-end.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk is Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole debut. With long-term yields at multi-year highs and the July FOMC minutes flagging upside inflation risks, any hawkish or dovish tilt in his address on the rate path could drive an outsized move across equities, rates and currencies heading into September's policy meeting.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Cooling Inflation, Patient Fed: Global Markets Diverge

For the week of Aug 14, a lighter data calendar and a fresh batch of cooling inflation prints set a constructive tone for global equities, even as regional performance sharply diverged. In the U.S., softer July CPI and PPI readings eased fears of renewed price pressure and trimmed bets on a September Fed hike, helping the S&P 500 grind to fresh record highs. China and Hong Kong slipped, dragged by internet heavyweights and a tax-driven sell-off in insurers despite pockets of strength in optical and property names. Singapore bucked the regional softness, with the Straits Times Index nudging to a new high on gains in shipbuilders and industrials.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished mixed as cooling inflation and easing Fed-hike expectations were offset by softer consumer data and rising oil prices. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 0.36% to a fresh record while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) was little changed at +0.14%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged, slipping 0.56%. Small- and mid-caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 each gaining over 1%.

Index Weekly Performance

– Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.56%

– S&P 500 (SPX): +0.36%

– Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.14%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ July Inflation Resumes Its Downward Trend

Headline CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% year over year, down from June's 3.5%, while core CPI eased to 2.5% from 2.6% — both in line with estimates. Cooler-than-expected producer prices followed, with headline PPI slowing to 4.7% from 5.5%, reinforcing the disinflation narrative and easing fears that price pressures were broadening.

2️⃣ September Rate-Hike Odds Fade

The softer prints pushed futures-implied odds of a September Fed hike to roughly 32% by Friday, down from about 52% earlier in the week, per CME FedWatch. With the next meeting not until mid-September, patience — favoured by nine of twelve voters in July — looks likely to prevail again.

3️⃣ Consumer Data Disappoints

Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the sharpest monthly drop since May 2025, while the University of Michigan's preliminary August sentiment reading slid 4.2 points to 51. The soft data tempered risk appetite but also eased near-term pressure on the Fed to tighten.

4️⃣ Treasury Yields Diverge

Shorter-term yields fell as hike bets receded, while long-end yields stayed elevated on heavy supply and fiscal concerns. The 10-year note auction cleared at its highest yield since 2007 and the 30-year at its highest since 2001, underscoring persistent term-premium pressure.

5️⃣ Earnings and Momentum Still Supportive

Edward Jones notes 2026 S&P 500 earnings-growth estimates now exceed 30%, with broad-based upward revisions and every sector expected to post positive growth. Coupled with Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q3 near 4%, the fundamental backdrop remains a source of strength for equities.

6️⃣ Volatility Near 2026 Lows

The CBOE Volatility Index revisited its 2026 lows during the quieter week, reflecting calmer positioning even amid Middle East diplomacy headlines. Edward Jones favours diversification with an opportunistic lean toward equities rather than betting on any single inflation outcome.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector breadth was broadly positive, led decisively by Energy as firmer oil prices lifted the group well clear of the pack. Defensive and rate-sensitive corners — Utilities, Communication Services, Consumer Staples and Technology — also advanced, while Financials, Industrials and Real Estate posted modest gains. Materials slipped and Consumer Discretionary was the clear laggard, weighed by the week's softer consumer data.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX printed fresh all-time highs, extending its uptrend as breadth improved into small- and mid-caps. The Nasdaq held near previous record territory but stalled, while the DJI slipped and underperformed the broader tape. All three indexes remain in constructive uptrends near their highs.

📊 Weekly charts:

– DJI weekly chart

– SPX weekly chart

– Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were choppy and ended lower, with Hong Kong underperforming. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) edged down 0.33% and the CSI 300 fell 0.61% in local-currency terms, as early strength in consumer and property names faded on losses in precious-metals stocks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 2.15%, weighed by internet heavyweights and mixed corporate earnings.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– CSI 300: -0.61%

– Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.33%

– Hang Seng Index (HSI): -2.15%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ China Inflation Cools to Multi-Month Lows

CPI rose just 0.5% year over year in July, a six-month low and down from 1% in June, as the oil-price shock from the U.S.–Iran war faded and food prices softened; core CPI eased to 0.9%. PPI growth slowed to 3.5% from 4.1%, its first moderation since producer inflation turned positive earlier this year.

2️⃣ Insurers Sell Off on Offshore Tax Crackdown

Stricter enforcement of taxes on offshore insurance income triggered a sell-off in Hong Kong financials, hitting insurers hardest. Maybank KE calls the reaction overdone, staying positive on AIA — viewed as oversold — and constructive on China Life on prospects for capital rotating back onshore.

3️⃣ Tencent Kicks Off a Mixed Earnings Season

Tencent opened China's reporting season with solid growth across gaming, advertising and cloud, though sentiment was tempered by rising capex. With results now flowing, earnings are likely to set fresh direction; Maybank KE also flags MiniMax as attractive on potential index-inclusion catalysts.

4️⃣ Beijing Eases Homebuying Curbs

Authorities relaxed purchase rules for nonresidents within the Fifth Ring Road, cutting the required contribution period to one year from two and lifting provident-fund loan limits. The measures echo earlier Shanghai easing and lifted property developers, offering modest support to sentiment.

5️⃣ Hang Seng Tech Index Set to Expand

Hang Seng Indexes plans to grow the tech gauge from 30 to 50 constituents, adding AI and robotics names and selecting ten by sales growth rather than market cap. Final revisions are targeted for end-September, with implementation at the December 2026 rebalancing.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI broke lower, sliding 2.15% to close near 25,117 as internet leaders led declines. Momentum has cooled after recent strength, with the index now testing support after failing to hold higher levels. A sustained recovery hinges on stabilisation in tech heavyweights and clearer signals from the earnings season.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– SSE weekly chart

– HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) outperformed the region, rising 0.79% to a fresh high near 5,744 as gains in shipbuilders, industrials and OCBC outweighed weakness in aviation and offshore names. Breadth was mixed, with sharp single-stock moves in both directions across the blue chips.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– Straits Times Index (STI): +0.79%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Shipbuilders and Industrials Lead

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding jumped 10.0% and Hongkong Land added 8.8%, while ST Engineering rose 6.2% and Genting Singapore gained 7.3%. The index's advance was powered by cyclical and industrial names even as several REITs and offshore counters lagged.

2️⃣ OCBC Powers the Banks' Divergence

OCBC surged 4.9% and now leads the local banks at +60.9% year to date, while DBS and UOB slipped 1.1% and 3.5% respectively. The split left the STI's heavyweight banking trio mixed, with OCBC doing the heavy lifting this week.

3️⃣ Aviation and Offshore Under Pressure

Singapore Airlines was the weakest blue chip, falling 7.2%, with UOL down 5.4% and Wilmar off 4.8%. Rising oil prices and profit-taking weighed on transport, property and agri-commodity names after their recent strength.

4️⃣ STI Extends Its Record Run

The 0.79% gain lifted the STI to a new closing high and a 23.6% year-to-date advance, cementing its status as a regional outperformer. Resilient index heavyweights and steady domestic sentiment continue to underpin the benchmark.

Technical Snapshot

The STI pushed to a fresh record near 5,744, extending its multi-month uptrend on broad blue-chip support. Momentum stays constructive despite pockets of single-stock weakness, keeping the trend firmly higher. A close above current levels would reinforce the breakout, with pullbacks likely viewed as buying opportunities.

(Refer to the STI Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (17–21 August 2026)

In the U.S., attention turns to the minutes of the July FOMC meeting for detail on how divided policymakers were over the inflation outlook, alongside flash S&P Global PMIs and housing data. With the next rate decision set for mid-September, any hawkish nuance could quickly reprice September expectations.

In China and Hong Kong, the earnings season accelerates, with a heavy slate of internet, insurance and property results likely to drive index direction. Loan prime rate fixings and further property-easing signals from major cities also remain in focus after Beijing's latest measures.

In Singapore and the region, the STI's record run faces a test from regional macro data and the tail of local earnings, with trade figures and currency moves in view. Bank-sector momentum after OCBC's outperformance will be watched closely.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint — The July FOMC minutes are the week's key binary: confirmation of a patient, data-dependent stance would sustain the disinflation-driven rally, while any hawkish surprise could unwind it — with the Jackson Hole symposium (Aug 27–29) looming as the larger catalyst just beyond.

 

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Headwinds Ease: Wall Street Breaks Out to Records

For the week of Aug 07, global equities advanced as easing worries over AI spending, softer oil prices and receding fears of further Fed tightening let fundamentals reassert themselves. In the U.S., major benchmarks broke out of their summer range to fresh record highs, powered by strong big-tech earnings and a softer July jobs report that trimmed rate-hike bets. China's mainland indices advanced on renewed technology and semiconductor strength, while Hong Kong slipped as a new tax on offshore insurance income weighed on financials. Singapore's Straits Times Index edged to new highs, led by industrials and its banks. Singapore market closes on Monday Aug 9 for National Day holiday, wil resume trading on Tuesday.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities broke decisively higher, with the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) surging 5.19% for its best week since April, the S&P 500 (SPX) climbing 3.58% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) adding 2.96%. All three closed at or near fresh record highs as favourable corporate earnings, renewed AI enthusiasm and hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lifted sentiment. Falling oil prices and softer labour data drove Treasury yields lower, reinforcing the risk-on tone.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +2.96%

-  S&P 500 (SPX): +3.58%

-  Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +5.19%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Indices Break Out to Fresh Record Highs

After three months rangebound, U.S. stocks broke to new highs as three headwinds — doubts over AI spending, energy-driven inflation risk and Fed-tightening fears — eased in unison. With those overhangs lifting, earnings and economic fundamentals reasserted themselves as the primary drivers of prices, per Edward Jones.

2️⃣ AI Earnings Renew Confidence in the Cycle

Large technology firms reported accelerating cloud growth, rising AI demand and expanding backlogs. Microsoft added roughly USD 450bn in market value after results — the largest single-day market-cap gain on record — while Meta slipped as investors questioned whether heavy capex would translate into returns. The AI story is maturing, not breaking, Edward Jones noted.

3️⃣ Earnings Strength Broadens Beyond Mega-Cap Tech

With over 85% of the S&P 500 reported, Q2 earnings growth is tracking near 48% — roughly 29% excluding investment-related gains at Alphabet and Amazon. Six of the remaining nine sectors delivered double-digit growth, pointing to a healthier, broader foundation for the advance, according to Edward Jones.

4️⃣ July Jobs Miss Recalibrates Fed Expectations

Employers shed 23,000 jobs in July versus expectations for an 80,000 gain, with prior months revised sharply lower and the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% on lower participation. Stocks rallied on the “bad-news-is-good-news” read: odds of a September rate hike fell to about 42% from roughly 55%.

5️⃣ Manufacturing Accelerates as Oil Retreats

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, its highest since May 2022, as new orders and production strengthened and hiring turned positive. WTI crude retraced much of last month's spike on hopes of Strait of Hormuz de-escalation, easing energy-inflation concerns even as talks remained fluid.

6️⃣ Treasuries Rally, Yields Ease

Softer labour data and lower oil pushed Treasury yields down across maturities, with the 10-year note falling to roughly 4.64% from 4.74% a week earlier. Lower yields provided an additional tailwind for equities, particularly rate-sensitive growth names.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Technology led the tape by a wide margin as the AI-driven rally reasserted itself, with Materials also outperforming on the improving industrial backdrop. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Communication Services likewise finished firmly higher. Energy was the clear laggard, dragged by the sharp retreat in oil prices, while Utilities and Real Estate also lagged as the week's risk-on rotation favoured cyclical and growth exposure.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The major indices cleared the upper boundary of their multi-month trading range, with the Nasdaq within arm's reach to its all-time high of 27190 and the SPX and DJI both confirming new-high territory. Breadth improved as leadership rotated back toward growth. On the charts, SPX, the Nasdaq Composite and the DJI have all resolved their prior sideways consolidation to the upside, establishing higher trading bands as price discovery extends into fresh-high territory.

📊 Weekly charts: 

DJI weekly chart  

SPXweekly chart  

Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China's markets diverged sharply. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 2.81% and the CSI 300 gained 2.32% as technology and semiconductor shares rallied, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell 0.84% in local-currency terms, dragged by financials. News that mainland tax authorities would levy taxes on offshore insurance policies weighed on Hong Kong-listed insurers and banks.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-  CSI 300: +2.32%

-  Shanghai Composite (SSE): +2.81%

-  Hang Seng Index (HSI): -0.84%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Mainland–Hong Kong Divergence Widens

Renewed strength in technology and semiconductor names lifted mainland benchmarks to solid weekly gains, even as the Hang Seng slipped. The split reflected diverging drivers: an AI- and tech-led bid onshore versus financials-led weakness in Hong Kong, per T. Rowe Price.

2️⃣ Offshore Insurance Tax Hits HK Financials

Tax authorities in Beijing and Hangzhou began applying a 20% levy on income from mainland residents' overseas insurance policies, including dividend and interest returns. The move — seen as part of tighter scrutiny of cross-border flows — sent Hong Kong-listed insurers and financials sharply lower, with heavyweight AIA among the biggest constituent decliners.

3️⃣ Macro Data Mixed as Trade Frictions Resurface

The RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased to 50.9 and services to 50.4, their softest in months, echoing the official survey's slip into contraction. Yet exports rose 23.9% YoY on resilient AI-electronics demand, even as fresh U.S.–China curbs — new import bans, blacklistings and Beijing's retaliatory controls — clouded the trade outlook.

4️⃣ Policy Support and Southbound Flows

Maybank KE's Dim Sum Weekly flagged the July Politburo's tilt toward targeted support and its “Six Networks” push to strengthen AI, data-centre and digital infrastructure, while Hong Kong signalled an upgrade to its 2026 growth forecast after 1H GDP rose 5.1% YoY. Southbound investors were net buyers of Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi, and net sellers of Meituan and China Construction Bank.

5️⃣ Maybank KE House Views

Maybank KE maintains BUY on China Telecom (728 HK, TP HKD 6.00) on next-gen infrastructure and a ~6.4% FY26e yield; Hong Kong Land (HKL SP, TP USD 9.30) on capital recycling and an office-leasing recovery; XPeng (9868 HK, TP HKD 80.00) on overseas expansion and AI optionality; and Yum China (9987 HK, TP HKD 479.00) on store growth and efficiency gains.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng slipped back below recent resistance to around 25,668, underperforming firmer mainland benchmarks as financials led the pullback. Despite the weekly loss, the index held marginally positive year-to-date, keeping its broader base intact. Near-term direction likely hinges on stabilisation in financials and follow-through from the mainland's tech-led bid.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts: 

SSE weekly chart

HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) rose 1.24% to 5,698.43, edging to fresh highs and extending a market-leading year-to-date gain of 22.65%. Gains were led by industrials and the local banks, offsetting broad weakness across property trusts and REITs.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Straits Times Index (STI): +1.24%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Extends Record-Setting Run

The benchmark notched another fresh high, cementing its standing as one of the region's strongest performers this year. The advance was concentrated at the top of the table even as the tape narrowed lower down, with roughly half the constituents ending the week in the red.

2️⃣ Industrials and Shipyards Lead

Venture Corp topped the index, followed closely by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, with ST Engineering and SATS also among the leaders. Strength in manufacturing, shipbuilding and defence-linked names underpinned the index's push to new highs.

3️⃣ REITs and Property Trusts Under Pressure

The Mapletree trusts, Frasers vehicles and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT were among the week's heaviest fallers, while Keppel DC REIT and several developers also softened. Rate-sensitive S-REITs lagged the broader tape even as Treasury yields eased late in the week.

4️⃣ Index Heavyweights Mixed

Singtel, the Jardine counters (JMH) and DFI Retail weighed on the index, ranking among the steepest decliners. Their weakness partly offset leadership from the banks and industrials, keeping the STI's weekly advance measured despite the fresh high.

5️⃣ Financials Anchor a Heavy Results Week

Singapore's three lenders reported 2Q/1H FY26 — DBS on 6 Aug, OCBC and UOB on 7 Aug. DBS posted a record quarter (net profit ~S$3.08bn, +9% YoY) on surging wealth fees, prompting Maybank KE to raise its target to S$85.86 (BUY); the stock rose 3.12%. OCBC (+4.02%) beat with profit up 22% YoY, though led by non-interest income, while UOB (-0.23%) lagged on elevated NPAs and a trimmed fee-income outlook. SGX capped the week with strong FY results and higher capital returns (Maybank KE BUY, TP S$28.33).

Technical Snapshot

The STI extended its uptrend to a fresh high at 5,698.43, keeping its year-to-date leadership intact. Momentum stayed constructive at the index level even as breadth thinned, with gains concentrated in banks and industrials against a soft REIT complex. The trend remains higher while the index holds its rising near-term support.

(Refer to the STI constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts: 

STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (10–14 August 2026)

In the U.S., the July CPI report on Wednesday, 12 Aug is the marquee release, carrying added weight after soft jobs data left markets pricing roughly a 42% chance of a September rate hike. Producer prices and retail sales follow later in the week, alongside the tail end of Q2 earnings season.

In China and Hong Kong, July inflation (CPI and PPI) and new-yuan-loan and aggregate-financing data are due, offering a fresh read on demand after softer PMIs. Investors will also watch for follow-through on U.S.–China trade frictions and continued Hong Kong corporate earnings.

Singapore starts the week shortened by the National Day holiday on Monday, 10 Aug (Japan is also closed on 11 Aug), before results season broadens from the banks to mid-caps and REITs. With the big three lenders now reported, sell-side positioning is split: UOB Kay Hian's Alpha Picks favours staying with the banks, while DBS and Phillip flag a rotation toward laggard tech such as UMS and AEM.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk is Wednesday's U.S. July CPI. A hotter-than-expected print would revive fears of further Fed tightening and could quickly unwind the AI-led breakout, whereas a benign reading would reinforce the “bad-news-is-good-news” dynamic and validate fresh record highs.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.