Weekly market analysis covering Singapore, US, Hong Kong and China — stocks, REITs, ETFs and trading perspectives.

Saturday, October 31, 2026

AI Cash-Flow Test: Fed Holds, Rotation Broadens

For the week of Oct 30, investors scrutinised AI spending as disappointing hyperscaler results triggered a late-week tech reversal, even as the Fed held rates and market breadth improved. U.S. equities ended mixed as small caps and defensives offset a sharp slide in large-cap technology after Alphabet(GOOG) and Amazon(AMZN) missed expectations. China and Hong Kong diverged as a mainland tech sell-off and a plenum without new stimulus contrasted with a Friday Hong Kong rebound. Singapore slipped as a steep Wilmar decline and softer banks outweighed gains in selected industrials.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices — Weekly Performance
Week 44, 31 Oct 2026
SymbolIndex NameClose (Wk)ChangeChg %YTD %
$RUTRussell 20002,811.84+35.95+1.29%+13.29%
$N225Nikkei 22563,290.11+596.95+0.95%+25.73%
$HSIHang Seng23,294.42+201.05+0.87%-9.11%
$KLCIKLCI1,615.60+4.04+0.25%-3.84%
$SPXS&P 5007,580.07-43.61-0.57%+10.73%
$STIStraits Times5,376.74-45.42-0.84%+15.72%
$DJIDow Jones51,770.31-444.85-0.85%+7.71%
$NDXNasdaq 10028,384.85-572.68-1.98%+12.42%
$SSEShanghai3,599.02-91.46-2.48%-9.32%
$CSI300CSI 3003,985.50-119.83-2.92%-13.92%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 44

 

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. stocks closed mixed as AI-related large caps reversed early-week gains late in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost 0.85%, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.57% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) slid 1.98%, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 1.29%. Large-cap value outperformed growth for a fourth consecutive week.

Index Weekly Performance

-          Dow Jones (DJI): -0.85%

-          S&P 500 (SPX): -0.57%

-          Nasdaq 100 (NDX): -1.98%

Monthly Performance

October split the market: the Dow Jones (DJI) gained 1.70%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.93% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) dropped 6.65%, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) up 0.54%. The three large-cap indices stand at +7.71%, +10.73% and +12.42% year to date. (Refer to the major indices’ monthly performance table below.)

Major Indices — Monthly Performance
Month-end Oct 2026
SymbolIndex NameClose (Mo)ChangeChg %YTD %
$DJIDow Jones51,770.31+864.26+1.70%+7.71%
$RUTRussell 20002,811.84+14.98+0.54%+13.29%
$SPXS&P 5007,580.07-71.46-0.93%+10.73%
$KLCIKLCI1,615.60-35.57-2.15%-3.84%
$N225Nikkei 22563,290.11-3,463.61-5.19%+25.73%
$STIStraits Times5,376.74-299.14-5.27%+15.72%
$HSIHang Seng23,294.42-1,318.85-5.36%-9.11%
$SSEShanghai3,599.02-243.18-6.33%-9.32%
$NDXNasdaq 10028,384.85-2,023.66-6.65%+12.42%
$CSI300CSI 3003,985.50-372.11-8.54%-13.92%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQOct 2026

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ AI Spending Faces a Cash-Flow Test

Microsoft beat revenue and earnings estimates, but Alphabet and Amazon posted double-digit revenue growth and still missed expectations, reigniting doubts over returns on heavy AI capex. Investors are now judging spending on near-term revenue, earnings and cash flow, a repricing of AI rather than a rejection of it.

2️⃣ Fed Holds at 3.75%-4.00%, Two Dissent

The Fed held rates after September’s 25 bp hike, with 10 of 12 voters in favour and two preferring another quarter-point increase. The statement described growth as strong rather than solid, and Chair Warsh offered little guidance on December. Two further 25 bp hikes are anticipated, which would effectively reverse the 2025 cuts.

3️⃣ GDP Accelerates to a 3.4% Pace

Advance third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate, above the roughly 3.0% expected and up from 2.2% in the second quarter, led by business investment and consumer spending. Consumer confidence rose to 91.7 from 84.2, and jobless claims fell to 194,000, the lowest since July, giving the Fed room to focus on inflation.

4️⃣ Inflation Stays Sticky: PCE at 3.6%

September headline PCE rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% year on year, with energy up 21.3%. Core PCE rose 0.3% and 3.1%, both accelerating modestly from August and well above the 2% target. The five-year TIPS breakeven has also moved higher, suggesting markets see a risk that inflation stays above target for longer.

5️⃣ Rotation Broadens Beyond Mega-Cap Tech

Value and small caps led, and defensive sectors such as consumer staples, health care and utilities offset AI-related weakness as market breadth improved. With valuation multiples contracting as yields rise, earnings growth is now the key driver, and a sustained double-digit pace would support further gains.

6️⃣ Yields Ease; Oil and Midterms Add Risk

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.92% from roughly 5% a week earlier, turning sharply lower after the Fed and the late-week tech sell-off. Year-to-date investment-grade issuance hit a record on AI-related financing. Oil stayed volatile as U.S.-Iran diplomacy competed with escalation risks, with military activity possibly intensifying after the 3 November midterms.


S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors advanced even as the index fell, a clear sign of broadening leadership. Health Care, Materials and Utilities led, while Consumer Staples and Industrials also finished higher. Communication Services and Technology were the weakest sectors, weighed by the AI-spending reassessment and Alphabet’s sharp post-earnings drop. (Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

S&P 500 Sector ETFs — Weekly Performance
Week 44, 31 Oct 2026
SymbolSectorClose (Wk)ChangeChg %YTD %
SPY ★S&P 500 ETF755.72-4.25-0.56%+10.82%
XLVHealth Care184.87+5.59+3.12%+19.43%
XLBMaterials52.74+1.43+2.79%+16.30%
XLUUtilities43.43+0.87+2.04%+1.73%
XLYConsumer Discret.115.38+2.28+2.02%-3.37%
XLIIndustrials167.40+2.78+1.69%+7.92%
XLREReal Estate43.17+0.60+1.41%+6.99%
XLPConsumer Staples89.42+1.16+1.31%+15.11%
XLFFinancials56.51+0.61+1.09%+3.18%
XLEEnergy70.02+0.69+1.00%+56.61%
XLKTechnology179.51-3.72-2.03%+24.69%
XLCComm. Services99.90-5.61-5.32%-15.14%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 44


Technical Snapshot

The SPX closed at 7,580.07, up 10.73% year to date, its third straight weekly loss after last week’s 0.47% decline, while the DJI at 51,770.31 gave back the last two weeks’ gains. The NDX, at 28,384.85, was the weakest of the three with a third consecutive weekly loss after last week’s 0.79% decline. The three indices remain in a sideways consolidation, and the outlook hinges on whether further AI earnings and the 6 November jobs report hold that range.

📊 Weekly charts:

-          DJI weekly chart

-          SPX weekly chart

-          Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities ended mixed as a deepening mainland tech sell-off contrasted with a Friday rebound in Hong Kong. The CSI 300 fell 2.92% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) fell 2.48%, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 0.87%. Semiconductor and AI-related shares led the losses on valuation and AI-return concerns, and the HSI gained 1.46% on Friday. (Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-          CSI 300: -2.92%

-          Shanghai Composite (SSE): -2.48%

-          Hang Seng Index (HSI): +0.87%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Fifth Plenum Stresses Discipline, No Stimulus

The Party’s Fifth Plenum concluded Thursday with a resolution on governance and anti-corruption, confirming the expulsion of 33 officials including former securities regulator head Yi Huiman. The communiqué reaffirmed efforts to expand domestic demand and promote innovation-led growth under the 15th Five-Year Plan, but announced no new stimulus measures.

2️⃣ Mainland Tech Sell-Off Deepens

Semiconductor and AI-related shares stayed under pressure, and losses intensified Friday after renewed U.S. tech weakness. Maybank Securities noted that state-backed investors reportedly bought up to RMB 170 bn of stocks and ETFs in October to cushion declines. Hong Kong rebounded Friday on consumer, financial, energy, property and selected internet names.

3️⃣ Soft 3Q Earnings Favour Defensives

Maybank Securities said China’s 3Q earnings season has started softly, with weak consumption and price competition weighing on profits, and it continues to favour defensive, dividend-yielding stocks. It cited China Telecom and China Tower for attractive yields and resilient cash flows. HSBC fell 4.77% after missing earnings expectations.

4️⃣ PBoC Adds a Bond-Market Backstop

The PBoC announced a swap facility to help eligible institutions manage large redemptions during systemic bond-market stress, to limit forced selling. Separately, the three policy banks completed RMB 800 bn of 2026 financial-instrument issuance, up from RMB 500 bn in 2025, to fund infrastructure, AI and other priority projects.

5️⃣ Profits and Exports Accelerate

Industrial profits rose 14.4% year on year in September from 4.2% in August, but disparities persisted, with electronics profits up 103.8% in the first nine months and automobile profits down 22.8%. Maybank Securities noted that Hong Kong’s September exports rose 64.9% year on year on AI demand, the fastest growth in over 40 years.


Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed at 23,294.42, rebounding 0.87% after last week’s 4.52% drop, but it remains down 9.11% year to date. The SSE fell to 3,599.02, its sixth straight weekly decline after last week’s 0.69% loss, and is down 9.32% year to date. The HSI is attempting a rebound while the SSE remains under pressure, so the outlook depends on mainland tech stabilising.

Hang Seng Index Weekly Gainers

Fifty-seven of the 95 index constituents gained for the week. Energy and banks led, with PetroChina up 12.65%, Sinopec 9.08% and ICBC 9.05%, while Li Ning (+7.51%) and China Shenhua (+7.42%) also posted strong gains.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers
Week 44, 31 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
HSI ★HSI ★23,294.42+0.87%-9.11%
857PetroChinaHPCD10.82+12.65%+29.12%
386Sinopec4.87+9.08%+4.18%
1398ICBC7.89+9.05%+25.52%
2331Li Ning13.75+7.51%-26.35%
1088China Shenhua42.56+7.42%+9.69%
836CR Power19.92+7.27%+15.08%
1044Hengan21.08+7.01%-24.44%
883CNOOC24.70+6.83%+15.96%
2319China Mengniu Dairy19.86+6.60%+33.20%
1378China Hongqiao20.22+6.31%-38.01%
1299AIA Group75.40+6.12%-5.63%
3968CM Bank54.55+6.03%+3.31%
316OOIL158.80+5.66%+26.63%
1099Sinopharm16.19+5.54%-16.72%
6Power Assets63.90+5.53%+15.87%
939CCB10.26+5.07%+33.42%
1038CK Infra70.65+4.98%+22.66%
823Link REIT39.82+4.73%+14.62%
1113CK Asset46.16+4.62%+17.40%
728China Telecom4.50+4.40%-16.42%
868Xinyi Glass8.10+3.85%-2.12%
941China MobileHCMD80.00+3.76%-2.08%
2313Shenzhou Intl38.30+3.40%-37.42%
2388BOC Hong Kong50.50+3.31%+28.11%
1109CR Land30.46+3.25%+11.99%
669Techtronic133.30+3.25%+48.28%
16Sun Hung Kai108.90+3.22%+14.99%
3988Bank of ChinaHBND6.14+3.19%+37.78%
267CITIC12.30+3.19%+1.99%
1CK Hutchison66.20+2.87%+25.02%
66MTR Corp33.32+2.84%+11.81%
1997Wharf REIC31.18+2.84%+26.85%
6690Haier19.95+2.78%-17.83%
1209CR Mixc39.88+2.62%-7.13%
12Henderson Land28.04+2.56%-0.36%
968Xinyi Solar1.86+2.48%-37.37%
9992Pop MartHPPD134.90+2.43%-28.13%
322Tingyi12.65+2.43%+7.29%
300Midea96.65+2.17%+13.77%
6862Haidilao9.43+2.11%-33.86%
291CR Beer19.77+2.07%-24.60%
9633Nongfu Spring42.34+1.97%-9.61%
688COLI12.69+1.85%+3.59%
2CLP Holdings77.40+1.78%+11.21%
2318Ping AnHPAD49.74+1.47%-23.65%
3HK & China Gas7.27+1.47%+3.71%
2688ENN Energy48.76+1.46%-29.54%
27Galaxy Ent.32.06+1.46%-16.34%
2628China Life23.88+1.44%-12.78%
6618JD Health38.10+1.33%-31.35%
1929Chow Tai Fook11.01+0.92%-11.14%
1519J&T Global Express8.98+0.67%-14.02%
9618JD.comHJDD100.40+0.40%-10.04%
288WH Group6.37+0.39%-26.59%
2382Sunny Optical63.30+0.24%-3.43%
762China Unicom5.21+0.19%-33.03%
2057ZTO Express157.20+0.13%-3.14%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 44

Hang Seng Index Weekly Decliners

Thirty-eight of the 95 index constituents declined. New Oriental (-17.41%), Hua Hong Semiconductor (-10.01%), Lenovo (-9.45%), SMIC (-8.67%) and Longfor (-8.11%) fell the most, with the semiconductor names reflecting the sector pressure.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners
Week 44, 31 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
HSI ★HSI ★23,294.42+0.87%-9.11%
2618JD Logistics9.89-0.05%-13.40%
3690MeituanHMTD71.60-0.07%-30.69%
2600Aluminum Corp China7.12-0.28%-41.50%
2359WuXi AppTec185.40-0.32%+87.84%
9888BaiduHBUD75.70-0.33%-42.43%
700TencentHTCD383.60-0.62%-35.96%
9988AlibabaHBBD97.05-0.77%-32.04%
388HKEX367.40-0.92%-9.86%
101Hang Lung Prop.6.19-1.04%-28.11%
1810XiaomiHXXD26.48-1.19%-32.62%
2020ANTA Sports74.35-1.26%-7.70%
241AliHealth2.83-1.40%-44.06%
9961Trip.comHTGD309.80-1.59%-44.08%
3692Hansoh32.36-1.94%-10.31%
1876Budweiser APAC5.89-2.00%-22.40%
1928Sands China10.68-2.73%-45.51%
175GeelyHGMD13.84-2.88%-22.68%
2269WuXi Bio44.48-2.88%+41.48%
285BYD Electronic21.80-2.94%-35.20%
6160BeOne Medicines221.40-3.06%+23.48%
9999NetEase176.70-3.44%-17.66%
1177Sino Biopharm4.82-3.60%-22.01%
6181Laopu GoldHLPD274.00-3.72%-55.66%
1801Innovent Bio79.75-4.15%+4.59%
2338Weichai Power23.52-4.39%+24.77%
1211BYDHYDD68.25-4.68%-28.42%
5HSBCHSHD135.70-4.77%+10.87%
2015Li Auto42.86-4.92%-33.91%
1024KuaishouHKUD26.52-4.95%-58.53%
3750CATLHCCD338.80-5.04%-32.98%
3993CMOC Group12.32-5.30%-35.97%
2899Zijin Mining27.86-5.43%-21.87%
1093CSPC Pharma7.87-5.75%-6.70%
960Longfor4.54-8.11%-47.02%
981SMICHSMD42.98-8.67%-39.85%
992Lenovo20.50-9.45%+121.38%
1347Hua Hong Semi60.70-10.01%-18.30%
9901New Oriental38.34-17.41%-9.23%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 44

📊 Weekly charts:

-          SSE weekly chart

-          HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore stocks edged lower, with the Straits Times Index (STI) down 0.84% as 11 constituents rose, one was flat and 18 fell. Wilmar and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding were the largest decliners, while OCBC, Keppel and Seatrium advanced. U.S. yields eased late in the week as the AI-linked tech sell-off lifted Treasuries.

Index Weekly Performance

-          Straits Times Index (STI): -0.84%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Wilmar Slump Weighs on the STI

Wilmar fell 9.88%, the STI’s worst performer, and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding dropped 6.76%. Cost pressures were flagged for Wilmar’s 3Q26, and the company said it will engage an investigations firm and a law firm, as directed by NEA, to inquire into any link to the Indonesian fires behind the transboundary haze.

2️⃣ Banks Diverge Before Results

DBS fell 1.76% and UOB 0.53%, while OCBC rose 1.00%. DBS denied rumours that its Indonesian unit would merge with Bank Central Asia. Maybank Securities expects the banks to report 3Q results from 4-6 Nov.

3️⃣ S-REITs Report Mixed 3Q Updates

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT reported 90.1% occupancy and a +9.9% rental reversion, though leverage rose to 41.8%. Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust’s 2Q DPU fell 3.5% and NetLink NBN Trust’s H1 DPU rose 1.1%. Mapletree Industrial Trust fell 3.89%.

4️⃣ Contract Wins and Ex-Dividend Moves

Seatrium, up 1.10%, secured an FPSO integration contract above S$200 million from SBM Offshore. Sembcorp signed a pact with DayOne to explore powering Asian data centres, but fell 2.66%. SGX, down 2.70%, traded ex-dividend (S$0.24) on 30 Oct.


Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,376.74, down 0.84% after last week’s 0.12% gain, and remains up 15.72% year to date. Breadth was negative, with 18 decliners against 11 gainers, led lower by Wilmar. The STI is consolidating within its year-to-date gains, has been in sideways mode for the past the past three weeks and the outlook turns to the banks’ results from 4 Nov. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance
Week 44, 31 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
STI ★STI ★5,376.74-0.84%+15.72%
D01DFI Retail USD3.49+4.80%-11.65%
C09CityDev7.34+2.95%-8.25%
S58SATS3.66+1.67%-3.94%
H78HK Land USD8.30+1.22%+19.42%
5E2Seatrium1.83+1.10%-15.28%
O39OCBC29.29+1.00%+48.23%
M44UMapletree Log Tr1.10+0.92%-16.67%
C6LSIA6.69+0.90%+4.53%
BN4Keppel10.09+0.90%-2.51%
G13Genting Sing0.60+0.84%-17.24%
Z74Singtel4.13+0.24%-9.23%
9CICapLand Invest2.40+0.00%-11.44%
U14UOL7.90-0.25%-9.61%
S63ST Engineering10.15-0.49%+20.55%
U11UOB41.37-0.53%+18.00%
C38UCapLand IntCom Tr2.28-0.87%-4.60%
A17UCapAscendas REIT2.21-0.90%-21.91%
AJBUKeppel DC REIT2.11-0.94%-6.22%
BUOUFrasers L&C Tr0.90-1.10%-10.05%
J36JMH USD57.67-1.67%-15.67%
N2IUMapletree PACT1.15-1.71%-21.77%
D05DBS73.13-1.76%+29.76%
V03Venture15.07-2.02%-0.46%
Y92ThaiBev0.42-2.30%-7.61%
U96Sembcorp Ind5.85-2.66%-2.82%
S68SGX20.21-2.70%+19.16%
J69UFrasers CT2.10-3.67%-9.87%
ME8UMapletree Ind Tr1.73-3.89%-16.83%
BS6YZJ Ship SGD4.55-6.76%+30.75%
F34Wilmar3.01-9.88%-2.27%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 44

📊 Weekly charts:

-          STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (2–6 Nov 2026)

In the U.S., ISM manufacturing is due Monday 2 Nov and ISM services Wednesday 4 Nov, with the midterm elections on Tuesday 3 Nov (markets open as usual). The October jobs report follows Friday 6 Nov at 8:30 a.m. ET (9:30 p.m. Singapore time), the next read on the labour market before the Fed’s December meeting.

In China and Hong Kong, the ninth China International Import Expo runs in Shanghai from 5 to 10 Nov, while 3Q earnings season continues. Maybank Securities continues to favour defensive, dividend-yielding names.

In Singapore, Maybank Securities expects the banks to report 3Q results from 4-6 Nov, with net interest margins, earnings and dividends in focus. U.S. Treasury yields remain a key sensitivity for REITs.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The biggest binary risk is whether U.S.-Iran diplomacy holds or military activity escalates after the 3 November midterms, which would swing oil, yields and the inflation outlook the Fed is trying to contain.

 

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Sunday, October 25, 2026

AI Funding Fears: Tech Sells Off, Rotation Cushions Markets

For the week of Oct 23, global equities were unsettled by renewed doubts over the funding and returns of AI spending, with higher oil prices and Middle East tensions adding to the unease. In the U.S., tech-led selling weighed on the large-cap benchmarks as investors rotated toward defensive and small-cap stocks, and Treasury yields fell. China and Hong Kong slid on the technology rout and tighter scrutiny of online platforms, with Hong Kong the weakest. Singapore edged higher as REIT strength and lower U.S. yields offset weakness in tech-linked and industrial names.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

 

Major Indices — Weekly Performance
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
SymbolIndex NameClose (Wk)ChangeChg %YTD %
$RUTRussell 20002,775.90+54.53+2.00%+11.85%
$DJIDow Jones52,215.16+212.75+0.41%+8.64%
$KLCIKLCI1,611.56+3.81+0.24%-4.08%
$STIStraits Times5,422.16+6.63+0.12%+16.70%
$SPXS&P 5007,623.68-35.76-0.47%+11.37%
$SSEShanghai3,690.48-25.81-0.69%-7.01%
$NDXNasdaq 10028,957.53-230.02-0.79%+14.68%
$CSI300CSI 3004,105.33-65.28-1.57%-11.33%
$N225Nikkei 22562,693.16-2,631.13-4.03%+24.54%
$HSIHang Seng23,093.37-1,093.46-4.52%-9.90%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 43

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities ended mixed as concerns over AI spending and financing weighed on large-cap technology shares. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.47% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) lost 0.79%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained 0.41% and the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) led with a 2.00% advance.

Index Weekly Performance

-       Dow Jones (DJI): +0.41%

-       S&P 500 (SPX): -0.47%

-       Nasdaq 100 (NDX): -0.79%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ AI Funding Worries Hit Tech

Tech rebounded early in the week but reversed on Thursday as scrutiny of AI spending and funding returned. Meta fell more than 7% after raising its spending outlook, and every constituent of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed lower that day. The index lost 4% for the week and is down 15% in October.

2️⃣ Rotation Into Defensive Sectors

The tech sell-off did not become a broad rout, as money moved into utilities, consumer staples and health care. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose nearly 2%, while the Dow, with less tech exposure, gained 0.4%.

3️⃣ Treasuries Rally, Yield Below 5%

The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 5% from a recent high of 5.3%, reflecting a flight to safety and nerves about the growth outlook. Markets now price less than a 10% chance of an October Fed hike, down from about 70% in September.

4️⃣ Oil Rises on Middle East Tension

Brent closed Friday at $116.72 a barrel, above its May high, after Houthi drone attacks on Saudi Arabia. Higher oil is feeding into U.S. inflation, with the PCE deflator expected to rise sharply.

5️⃣ Housing Weakens, Activity Holds Up

The NAHB index fell three points to 29, its lowest since 2012, and pending home sales dropped 7.3% month over month. Elsewhere, initial jobless claims fell to 194,000, the lowest since July, and the flash Composite PMI was 57.6, though selling prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2022.

6️⃣ Earnings Strong, Fed Meets Next Week

Of the 25% of S&P 500 companies that have reported, more than 80% beat consensus, with earnings growth expected near 30% this quarter. The Fed is expected to hold rates after its September hike, possibly with a couple of dissenters favouring another increase.


S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Energy, Health Care, Real Estate and Utilities posted the strongest gains among the S&P 500 sector ETFs, as defensive and energy-linked groups attracted flows. Communication Services was the weakest by a wide margin, followed by Industrials, while Technology slipped modestly. The SPY benchmark finished lower on the week. (Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

S&P 500 Sector ETFs — Weekly Performance
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
SymbolSectorClose (Wk)ChangeChg %YTD %
SPY ★S&P 500 ETF759.97-3.28-0.43%+11.45%
XLEEnergy69.33+1.09+1.60%+55.07%
XLVHealth Care179.28+2.57+1.45%+15.81%
XLREReal Estate42.57+0.41+0.97%+5.50%
XLUUtilities42.56+0.35+0.83%-0.30%
XLBMaterials51.31+0.39+0.77%+13.14%
XLPConsumer Staples88.26+0.64+0.73%+13.62%
XLFFinancials55.90+0.38+0.68%+2.06%
XLYConsumer Discret.113.10+0.64+0.57%-5.28%
XLKTechnology183.23-0.24-0.13%+27.27%
XLIIndustrials164.62-3.14-1.87%+6.12%
XLCComm. Services105.51-4.81-4.36%-10.37%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 43


Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 7,623.68, slightly below the prior week's close( 4 days were inside prior week's range, only Friday slightly below). The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) ended at 28,957.53, also the similar pattern as SPX. The Dow Jones (DJI) at 52,215.16- its 3rd weekly gain. NDX was the weakest of the three as chip stocks sold off. Chart structure remains a sideways consolidation across all three indices, with the Fed decision and big-tech earnings next week the likely triggers for a breakout.

📊 Weekly charts:

-       DJI weekly chart

-       SPX weekly chart

-       Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities declined as a technology-led sell-off, driven by worries over AI investment, financing needs and earnings, hit sentiment. The CSI 300 (CSI300) fell 1.57% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 0.69%, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 4.52%, with Hong Kong closed on Monday for the Chung Yeung Festival and underperforming on selling in internet and biotech shares. Mainland bank shares were comparatively resilient. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-       CSI 300 (CSI300): -1.57%

-       Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.69%

-       Hang Seng Index (HSI): -4.52%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Tech Rout Drives China Lower

AI-linked shares fell on concerns over investment spending, financing needs and earnings, while losses in U.S. tech and higher oil added to volatility. The CSI 300 fell into a technical bear market on Thursday, but a Friday rebound left it about 19% below its peak at the weekly close. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 5% on Thursday, its biggest drop since April 2025.

2️⃣ Q3 GDP Beats; Demand Stays Uneven

China's Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year on year, ahead of the 4.4% poll median. September industrial production rose 5.5% and retail sales 1.1%, while fixed asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months. The stronger headline may reduce the urgency for broad stimulus, though domestic demand looks uneven.

3️⃣ Platform and Biotech Policy Pressure

The market regulator met major online platforms, including JD.com and Pinduoduo, over product quality and counterfeits, and Hong Kong-listed e-commerce shares fell Thursday. On Friday, biotech shares dropped after the U.S. Treasury proposed wider outbound investment rules that add biotechnology. The proposal is open to consultation and has not taken effect.

4️⃣ PBoC Studies Policy Benchmark Change

PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng said the central bank is studying whether to make the overnight reverse repo rate, rather than the seven-day rate, its main policy benchmark to improve transmission. No change has been made. The one-year and five-year loan prime rates were left at 3.00% and 3.50%, as expected.

5️⃣ Maybank Securities Stays Defensive

Maybank Securities maintains a defensive stance until visibility improves, with Hong Kong seen as more resilient given its weighting in dividend-yielding financials and cash-generative companies. It favours Standard Chartered, BOCHK and Zijin Mining. Next week's Fifth Plenum could be an upside catalyst.


Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed at 23,093.37, down 4.52% on the week and 9.90% year to date, the weakest of the ten major indices in this week's table. The SSE ended at 3,690.48, down 0.69% for the week and 7.01% year to date, holding up better than Hong Kong. The trend remains weak in both indices, with next week's Fifth Plenum and U.S. tech earnings the likely swing factors.

Hang Seng Index Weekly Gainers

Only 10 of the 95 Hang Seng Index constituents gained for the week, with one unchanged and 84 lower. Sunny Optical led at +9.45%, followed by Hansoh (+3.97%), BYD Electronic (+1.91%) and BeOne Medicines (+1.51%). Power Assets was flat. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
HSI ★HSI ★23,093.37-4.52%-9.90%
2382Sunny Optical63.15+9.45%-3.66%
3692Hansoh33.00+3.97%-8.54%
285BYD Electronic22.46+1.91%-33.23%
6160BeOne Medicines228.40+1.51%+27.38%
9633Nongfu Spring41.52+0.78%-11.36%
2015Li Auto45.08+0.71%-30.49%
300Midea94.60+0.69%+11.36%
1810XiaomiHXXD26.80+0.53%-31.81%
12Henderson Land27.34+0.51%-2.84%
66MTR Corp32.40+0.06%+8.72%
6Power Assets60.55+0.00%+9.79%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 43

Hang Seng Index Weekly Decliners

A total of 84 of the 95 constituents declined. Lenovo (-19.32%) and CATL (-19.06%) fell the most, followed by CMOC (-10.95%), Laopu Gold (-10.67%), SMIC (-10.19%), Alibaba (-10.11%) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (-10.01%). CATL's slide followed 3Q results, where net income rose only 14.5% year on year on margin pressure from tax changes, per Maybank Securities. Tencent fell 7.61% and NetEase 7.44%, and the three telecom operators dropped between 4.76% and 7.40%. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
HSI ★HSI ★23,093.37-4.52%-9.90%
9961Trip.comHTGD314.80-0.06%-43.18%
322Tingyi12.35-0.16%+4.75%
2628China Life23.54-0.34%-14.02%
1997Wharf REIC30.32-0.46%+23.35%
823Link REIT38.02-0.47%+9.44%
1044Hengan19.70-0.51%-29.39%
3HK & China Gas7.17-0.69%+2.21%
2313Shenzhou Intl37.04-0.80%-39.48%
2057ZTO Express157.00-0.82%-3.27%
1113CK Asset44.12-0.85%+12.21%
386Sinopec4.46-0.89%-4.50%
2319China Mengniu Dairy18.63-0.90%+24.95%
1038CK Infra67.30-0.96%+16.84%
939CCB9.77-1.01%+26.98%
388HKEX370.80-1.01%-9.03%
1876Budweiser APAC6.01-1.15%-20.82%
669Techtronic129.10-1.30%+43.60%
2CLP Holdings76.05-1.43%+9.27%
6862Haidilao9.23-1.44%-35.23%
16Sun Hung Kai105.50-1.59%+11.40%
288WH Group6.34-1.78%-26.87%
2600Aluminum Corp China7.14-1.79%-41.33%
2318Ping AnHPAD49.02-2.06%-24.76%
1209CR Mixc38.86-2.07%-9.50%
960Longfor4.93-2.18%-42.35%
101Hang Lung Prop.6.25-2.27%-27.35%
291CR Beer19.37-2.32%-26.13%
1CK Hutchison64.35-2.35%+21.53%
1929Chow Tai Fook10.91-2.42%-11.95%
1099Sinopharm15.34-2.42%-21.09%
6618JD Health37.60-2.49%-32.25%
2388BOC Hong Kong48.88-2.53%+24.00%
1211BYDHYDD71.60-2.92%-24.91%
3988Bank of ChinaHBND5.96-3.01%+33.52%
1299AIA Group71.05-3.07%-11.08%
1378China Hongqiao19.02-3.16%-41.69%
2338Weichai Power24.60-3.23%+30.50%
3968CM Bank51.45-3.38%-2.56%
2020ANTA Sports75.30-3.40%-6.52%
883CNOOC23.12-3.51%+8.54%
6690Haier19.41-3.53%-20.06%
9901New Oriental46.42-3.57%+9.90%
2618JD Logistics9.89-3.65%-13.35%
2331Li Ning12.79-3.69%-31.49%
868Xinyi Glass7.79-3.88%-5.74%
857PetroChinaHPCD9.61-3.90%+14.62%
1519J&T Global Express8.93-4.03%-14.59%
2688ENN Energy48.06-4.17%-30.55%
9888BaiduHBUD75.95-4.41%-42.24%
1928Sands China10.98-4.44%-43.98%
1398ICBC7.24-4.61%+15.10%
241AliHealth2.87-4.66%-43.27%
941China MobileHCMD77.10-4.76%-5.63%
1177Sino Biopharm5.00-4.76%-19.09%
1024KuaishouHKUD27.90-4.78%-56.37%
5HSBCHSHD142.50-4.81%+16.42%
2269WuXi Bio45.80-4.98%+45.67%
1109CR Land29.50-5.02%+8.46%
175GeelyHGMD14.25-5.06%-20.39%
2359WuXi AppTec186.00-5.20%+88.45%
3690MeituanHMTD71.65-5.35%-30.64%
688COLI12.46-5.39%+1.71%
968Xinyi Solar1.81-5.47%-38.89%
9618JD.comHJDD100.00-5.75%-10.39%
27Galaxy Ent.31.60-5.78%-17.54%
1093CSPC Pharma8.35-6.02%-1.01%
836CR Power18.57-6.35%+7.28%
316OOIL150.30-6.41%+19.86%
1801Innovent Bio83.20-6.57%+9.11%
1088China Shenhua39.62-6.86%+2.11%
267CITIC11.92-7.38%-1.16%
9992Pop MartHPPD131.70-7.38%-29.83%
762China Unicom5.20-7.39%-33.16%
728China Telecom4.32-7.40%-19.94%
9999NetEase183.00-7.44%-14.73%
700TencentHTCD386.00-7.61%-35.56%
2899Zijin Mining29.46-7.82%-17.39%
1347Hua Hong Semi67.45-10.01%-9.22%
9988AlibabaHBBD97.80-10.11%-31.51%
981SMICHSMD47.06-10.19%-34.14%
6181Laopu GoldHLPD284.60-10.67%-53.95%
3993CMOC Group13.01-10.95%-32.38%
3750CATLHCCD356.80-19.06%-29.42%
992Lenovo22.64-19.32%+144.49%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 43

📊 Weekly charts:

-       SSE weekly chart

-       HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore equities edged higher, with the Straits Times Index (STI) up 0.12% as REITs led and U.S. yields fell below 5%. Banks were little changed ahead of 3Q results, while shipbuilding, tech-linked and commodity names lagged. Eighteen of the 30 index constituents rose, one was flat and 11 fell.

Index Weekly Performance

-       Straits Times Index (STI): +0.12%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ REITs Lead on Results, Lower Yields

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (+5.83%), CapLand Integrated Commercial Trust (+3.14%), Keppel DC REIT (+2.90%) and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (+2.76%) led the gainers. Keppel DC REIT's 9M DPU rose 11.7% year on year, and Suntec REIT's Q3 DPU rose 13.4%. Lower U.S. yields could further support S-REITs.

2️⃣ Banks Steady Before 3Q Results

DBS rose 0.45%, OCBC was flat and UOB slipped 0.05%. Maybank Securities is positive on the sector and expects marginally weaker sequential earnings on lower trading income, partly offset by fees. It lists 3Q results for UOB on 4 Nov, DBS on 5 Nov and OCBC on 6 Nov.

3️⃣ Shipbuilders, Tech, Commodities Lag

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (-6.33%), Venture (-3.03%), Wilmar (-2.91%) and Genting Singapore (-2.46%) were the weakest performers. Venture's drop came as global tech stocks sold off. Singtel fell 1.44% after a S$1 million fine over March mobile outages.

4️⃣ September Inflation Edges Down to 2.2%

Singapore's September CPI rose 0.2% month on month and 2.2% year on year, down from 2.3% in August, on lower inflation for transport, information and communication services, furniture and clothing. The reading came in below an estimated 2.4%.


Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,422.16, up 0.12% for the week and 16.7% YTD. The index has formed two weekly almost indential candlesticks at its long-term uptrend support line( drawn from Apr 2025 through Jun 2026 low)--interesting to watchout coming week as a breakout beyond the trading range would lead to cleared direction. REIT gains were offset by weakness in shipbuilding and tech-linked names. The chart points to sideways consolidation, with other factos such U.S. tech earnings, the Fed and oil also likely to set the next direction. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
STI ★STI ★5,422.16+0.12%+16.70%
J69UFrasers CT2.18+5.83%-6.44%
J36JMH USD58.65+5.52%-14.24%
U14UOL7.92+4.07%-9.38%
C38UCapLand IntCom Tr2.30+3.14%-3.77%
AJBUKeppel DC REIT2.13+2.90%-5.33%
A17UCapAscendas REIT2.23+2.76%-21.20%
Y92ThaiBev0.43+2.35%-5.43%
BUOUFrasers L&C Tr0.91+2.26%-9.05%
N2IUMapletree PACT1.17+1.74%-20.41%
C6LSIA6.63+1.53%+3.59%
U96Sembcorp Ind6.01+1.52%-0.17%
C09CityDev7.13+1.28%-10.88%
D01DFI Retail USD3.33+1.22%-15.70%
M44UMapletree Log Tr1.09+0.93%-17.42%
9CICapLand Invest2.40+0.84%-11.44%
ME8UMapletree Ind Tr1.80+0.56%-13.46%
S58SATS3.60+0.56%-5.51%
D05DBS74.44+0.45%+32.08%
O39OCBC29.00+0.00%+46.76%
U11UOB41.59-0.05%+18.63%
H78HK Land USD8.20-0.61%+17.99%
BN4Keppel10.00-0.99%-3.38%
S68SGX20.77-1.10%+22.46%
Z74Singtel4.12-1.44%-9.45%
S63ST Engineering10.20-1.83%+21.14%
5E2Seatrium1.81-2.16%-16.20%
G13Genting Sing0.59-2.46%-17.93%
F34Wilmar3.34-2.91%+8.44%
V03Venture15.38-3.03%+1.59%
BS6YZJ Ship SGD4.88-6.33%+40.23%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 43

📊 Weekly charts:

-       STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (26–30 Oct 2026)

The FOMC decision lands Wednesday (28 Oct, 2:00 pm ET), with a hold expected after the September hike and Chair Warsh's tone in focus. The advance Q3 GDP estimate and September PCE inflation are both due Thursday (29 Oct, 8:30 am ET; Friday 30 Oct in Singapore), with consensus expecting GDP growth of 3.2% annualised. Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft are expected to report earnings, giving fresh updates on AI spending.

The Fifth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee runs 26–29 Oct in Beijing, with an official agenda centred on Party self-governance. Maybank Securities sees any policy surprise as a possible upside catalyst for Alibaba and Tencent, expects volatility to stay elevated into the U.S. midterm elections, and notes Standard Chartered reports 3Q results on 28 Oct.

Singapore will take its cue from the Fed, U.S. big-tech earnings and oil prices, with S-REITs sensitive to U.S. yields after the 10-year fell below 5%. The local banks report 3Q results shortly after the week, with UOB listed for 4 Nov, DBS 5 Nov and OCBC 6 Nov by Maybank Securities.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The biggest binary risk is the collision of the Fed decision and hyperscaler earnings. Reassurance on AI returns could stabilise tech, while another capex-driven credit scare, or a hawkish Fed with oil near its highs, could extend the rotation and keep yields elevated.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

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