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Showing posts with label Trading Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trading Strategy. Show all posts

Monday, August 4, 2014

Weekly Wrap

For the month of Jul, Asian(Ex-J) three major indices clearly outperform the US, Shanghai SSE gained the most with 7.5% up, while Hang Seng HSI gained 6.8%, STI gained 3.6% in the month.

Weekly performance review below, Shanghai and Hong kong leading the upside, whereas STI lost marginally with 0.2% loss.

STI uptrending is well intact, within its ascending channel. My immediate support level is at 3310, which is the prior resistance turn possible support, also its ascending channel support line.

HSI looks bullish and expected to move further upside in short to medium term. It has formed a potential ascending triangle, which is a bullish sign. Short term support 24000, resistance 25000.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

STI Hit One Year New High

STI hit new one year high today at 3353 as I'm writing now. My initial target 3340 which I set on May 4, 2014( click HERE) has been fulfilled by yesterday.

This is updated STI chart by yesterday close.



Monday, May 28, 2012

Might June be a Turning Point?

Might the month of June be the turning point for Mr. Bearish market? Having saying that, I have two important date to note:

First, 17th June: Greece new election date.( click HERE for details), market will be watching the result of this election see whether the Greek can form a government or not, see which side win. Market will definitely react on that, be it bullish or bearish.

Second, 20th June: US Fed FOMC meeting announcement. Will Fed push out QE3 to stimulate the economy and improve the unemployment ahead of Nov Presidency Election? We will see.

I have a colleague Mr. Lee who has been in this line for 50 years-- he started before I was born. With respect, I asked him: when is the worst time for stock market in your 50 years? He replied me without thinking: NOW.

I paused without a word. In my experience, it is true for most people (maybe 98%), as we only trade in one direction--long or buy then sell, we don't get used to short or sell then back back later. We don't trade CFD, futures or use other hedging methods as many Algo, hedge funds doing now. It's really a tough time. I will not be able to survive if I did not trade futures, thanks God Kim Eng CFD will be resumed soon-- I still can short the market if it's down. The market get more volatile, the up/down cycle shortened.

Let's get well prepared and equipped appropriate tools for this market.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Speculation and Trading vs. Gambling

I'm reading this interesting article and think it's great to share with you. Please read it to the end. Seriously.

When does trading become gambling? There is a very thin line. I maintain that most traders ARE gamblers. They use markets as a substitute for a casino. Here are some of the sign posts that you have crossed the line. I love Jeff Foxworthy so I will steal his "you just might be a redneck."

1. IF you enter trades without a clear trading plan, you just might be a gambler.
2. IF you trade just to be trading, you just might be a gambler.
3. IF your bored and enter a trade, you just might be a gambler.
4. IF you look at potential profit before assessing potential loses, you just might be a gambler.
5. IF you have no impulse control, you just might be a gambler.
6. IF you have no methodology, you just might be a gambler.
7. IF you rely on others for your trading decisions, you just might be a gambler.
8. IF you do not take full responsibility for your trading outcomes, you just might be a gambler.
9. IF you increase your risk due to losses, you just might be a gambler.
10. IF you do not use stop losses or do not adhere to them, you just might be a gambler.
And my all time favorite
11. IF you get an adrenaline rush when your entering trades, you just might be a gambler.

In summation I would like to say that I do enjoy casino gambling as a form of entertainment. I strive to over come the house's edge when I do gamble. Gambling is entertainment and trading is a business and should be approached as a business enterprise. IF your using the markets as a gambling outlet, be my guest. Traders that approach trading with a positive expectancy WILL take all your money. They will send you stumbling out into the night, cross-eyed and mumbling to yourself. Be smart. You can either feed the trading gods or feed your head. Do the work and get educated before risking one thin dime. Employ laser like focus in your trading and use iron discipline. The end result can be well beyond your wildest expectation.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

STI Hit the Highest 3066.81 Since Fiancial Crisis

STI passed over its major reistance 3038 yesterday. The next major resistance is 3128, another 90 points away from now.


Monday, August 30, 2010

I Like Longs

Straits Times Index breakout its trading range 2195~2949 as I indentified few posts back(click HERE), now trading at 2953, it's immediate resistance I'm looking at is 2966. The bulls now can get a relief now, as the recent support is still holding, market sentiment bias to upside.


I'm having the below long candidates in my radar:

CWT
Kepland
Osim
SPH
Sembcorp
Q&M
kepcorp

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Gooood -Bye, July!


July is over, the first month after my return from holiday. I'd say it's the best performance month of my trading so far, I've never feel so smooth in my trading. The major improvements that I think are I'm more calm and less emotional in trading. Few other points I want to adress are:

1. It does not need complex strategies to achieve success. Simple is effective.
2. Trust yourself, act with confidence.
3. Be crystal clear in what you are doing. 知己知彼,百战不殆。
4. Be patient. Wait for the best opportunity. Market never die.

Last but not least, I need more holidays!

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

It's Hitting the Roof

Hi folks, we are very much close to 3000 important psychological level now. Maybe up by another 30 points or so, not more than that. The upside is limited in short-term. On the other hand, the financials ( i.e DBS, OCBC, UOB and SGX) are still looks more bullish than bearish to me, they may move up a bit thus push STI higher( the 30points move?)

2010Jul-Straits Times-800x600

The US benchmark S&P 500(SPX) too resisting at its 50% fibonacci level last night.
SPX

Friday, July 23, 2010

STI: 2958 resistance is the Key

Straits Time Index is attacking 2958 again, see wether if it can breakout. The next level would be 3000 if it does.

2010Jul-Straits Times-800x600

Monday, July 12, 2010

US Market

Dow is heading up to its 50dma resistance, as it occurs that there are still some room for it to move up from now, should it turn down late this week? See the chart below.

2010Jul-Dow Jones Industrial-800x600

On the other hand, SPX too has some room to the upside until its 50dma resisatance at 1100 level.

2010Jul-S&P 500-800x600

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Dennis Gartman's Rules of Trading

I found this information from web, it really hit my mind. Please read it yourself slowly and completely:

With respect to investing and trading, all of us read the admonitions of experienced folks that give us a list of warnings. We all read them. Some read them and think that they are immune to them. Dennis Gartman has a widely published list of rules that I thought I would resurrect. I picked these up from The Big Picture (Barry Ritholtz's blog) which he published from John Mauldin's newsletter.

To keep within the theme of this post, I would title these: Dennis Gartman's Rules of Trading: If you break them, your portfolio will turn blue and die"


R U L E # 1
Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position ... not EVER!

Averaging down into a losing trade is the only thing that will assuredly take you out of the investment business. This is what took LTCM out. This is what took Barings Brothers out; this is what took Sumitomo Copper out, and this is what takes most losing investors out.

R U L E # 2

Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position ... not EVER!

We trust our point is made. If "location, location, location" are the first three rules of investing in real estate, then the first two rules of trading equities, debt, commodities, currencies, and so on are these: never add to a losing position.

R U L E # 3
Learn to trade like a mercenary guerrilla.

The great Jesse Livermore once said that it is not our duty to trade upon the bullish side, nor the bearish side, but upon the winning side. This is brilliance of the first order. We must indeed learn to fight/invest on the winning side, and we must be willing to change sides immediately when one side has gained the upper hand.

R U L E # 4 DON'T HOLD ON TO LOSING POSITIONS
Capital is in two varieties: Mental and Real, and, of the two, the mental capital is the most important.

Holding on to losing positions costs real capital as one's account balance is depleted, but it can exhaust one's mental capital even more seriously as one holds to the losing trade, becoming more and more fearful with each passing minute, day and week, avoiding potentially profitable trades while one nurtures the losing position.

R U L E # 5 GO WHERE THE STRENGTH IS
The objective of what we are after is not to buy low and to sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher, or to sell short low and to buy lower.

We can never know what price is really "low," nor what price is really "high." We can, however, have a modest chance at knowing what the trend is and acting on that trend. We can buy higher and we can sell higher still if the trend is up. Conversely, we can sell short at low prices and we can cover at lower prices if the trend is still down. However, we've no idea how high high is, nor how low low is.

R U L E # 6

Sell markets that show the greatest weakness; buy markets that show the greatest strength.

Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw our rocks into the wettest paper sack for it will break the most readily, while in bull markets we need to ride the strongest wind for it shall carry us farther than others.

R U L E # 7
In a Bull Market we can only be long or neutral; in a bear market we can only be bearish or neutral.

In a bull market we can be neutral, modestly long, or aggressively long--getting into the last position after a protracted bull run into which we've added to our winning position all along the way. Conversely, in a bear market we can be neutral, modestly short, or aggressively short, but never, ever can we--or should we--be the opposite way even so slightly.

R U L E # 8
"Markets can remain illogical far longer than you or I can remain solvent."

The University of Chicago "boys" have argued for decades that the markets are rational, but we in the markets every day know otherwise. We must learn to accept that irrationality, deal with it, and move on.

R U L E # 9
Trading runs in cycles; some are good, some are bad, and there is nothing we can do about that other than accept it and act accordingly.

Thus, when things are going well, trade often, trade large, and try to maximize the good fortune that is being bestowed upon you. However, when trading poorly, trade infrequently, trade very small, and continue to get steadily smaller until the winds have changed and the trading "gods" have chosen to smile upon you once again.

R U L E # 10
To trade/invest successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician.

It is obviously imperative that we understand the economic fundamentals that will drive a market higher or lower, but we must understand the technicals as well. When we do, then and only then can we, or should we, trade.

R U L E # 11
Keep your technical systems simple.

The greatest traders/investors we've had the honor to know over the years continue to employ the simplest trading schemes. They draw simple trend lines, they see and act on simple technical signals, they react swiftly, and they attribute it to their knowledge gained over the years that complexity is the home of the young and untested.

R U L E # 12
In trading/investing, an understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics.

Markets are, as we like to say, the sum total of the wisdom and stupidity of all who trade in them, and they are collectively given over to the most basic components of the collective psychology. The dot-com bubble was indeed a bubble, but it grew from a small group to a larger group to the largest group, collectively fed by mass mania, until it ended. The economists among us missed the bull-run entirely, but that proves only that markets can indeed remain irrational, and that economic fundamentals may eventually hold the day but in the interim, psychology holds the moment.

And finally the most important rule of all:

R U L E # 13
Do more of that which is working and do less of that which is not.

This is a simple rule in writing; this is a difficult rule to act upon. However, it synthesizes all the modest wisdom we've accumulated over thirty years of watching and trading in markets. Adding to a winning trade while cutting back on losing trades is the one true rule that holds--and it holds in life as well as in trading/investing.


Dennis Gartman: This is what I have learned about the world of investing over three decades. I try each day to stand by my rules. I fail miserably at times, for I break them often, and when I do I lose money and mental capital, until such time as I return to my rules and try my very best to hold strongly to them. The losses incurred are the inevitable tithe I must make to the markets to atone for my trading sins. I accept them, and I move on, but only after vowing that "I'll never do that again."

Friday, May 14, 2010

Caution On The Long Side

Resistance and overhead supply levels are still in play.

US benchmark SPX had its first reversal day, after hitting the 50dma resistance, and above it the 20dma is turning downward.

2010May-S&P 500-800x600

and similar pattern goes to Straits Times Index, the overhead resistance is hit at 2900, my bias is to downside unless it can break above 2900 level.

2010May-Straits Times-800x600

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Sell in May and Go Away?

"Sell in May and go away"? This is not new, and the statment to me is completely fraud and meaningless. Just imagine if this statment is valid, then every May will be down. Just simply look back the chart, it's not the case. All these so-call axoims leaked out from the street but even the street don't believe it too -- it's meant for novices and outsiders.

In fact, May is just like any other month--sometimes down, some times up. Well...market has its own way. I'm not saying May will not down but it's possible to go either up or down. Let's be objective. Let market decide it.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Maket Update

The US major indices SPX, Dow and Nas all break to a new high. The Dow Jones has been up and up and up again for eight consecutive weeks. Market get into extending bull run by by expected good earning results.

Asian market, local indices STI has beat both HSI and SSE for a nice, healthy uptrend( HSI and SSE looks tumble into a downtrend).

STI is currently trending in the nice uptrend channel, just rebounded from its 20dma support, expected it will continue cilmb higher. the immediate resistance is still the 52 week high at 3037.

2010Apr-Straits Times-800x600

As for individual stocks, I'm looking to buy those stocks are rebounding from their lows. Will be posted next...

Thursday, January 28, 2010

STI Approaching Trendline Support

Since 2740 support was broken, the next sppt I'm lookin at is 2700 for STI. After three days heavy selling, it would come to a breath. STI bullishness will be curbed now as it already 元气大伤。。.=(

Monday, January 4, 2010

Happy Nerw Year!

Happy New Year to everyone!

This is the first trading day for the year 2010. We all are starting from ZERO now. Regardless good or bad in year of 2009, it waS past.

And We all are equal now. Starting in the same point, nobody is better or worse.How are we going to be is all in our hands, my friends, let's head up and start from new, continue improve and grow! Let's improve 1% every day then by the year end we got 365% better.

I wish all readers here have a bountiful 2010! 恭喜发财!