Weekly market analysis covering Singapore, US, Hong Kong and China — stocks, REITs, ETFs and trading perspectives.
Showing posts with label Weekly Wrap. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weekly Wrap. Show all posts

Sunday, October 25, 2026

AI Funding Fears: Tech Sells Off, Rotation Cushions Markets

For the week of Oct 23, global equities were unsettled by renewed doubts over the funding and returns of AI spending, with higher oil prices and Middle East tensions adding to the unease. In the U.S., tech-led selling weighed on the large-cap benchmarks as investors rotated toward defensive and small-cap stocks, and Treasury yields fell. China and Hong Kong slid on the technology rout and tighter scrutiny of online platforms, with Hong Kong the weakest. Singapore edged higher as REIT strength and lower U.S. yields offset weakness in tech-linked and industrial names.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

 

Major Indices — Weekly Performance
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
SymbolIndex NameClose (Wk)ChangeChg %YTD %
$RUTRussell 20002,775.90+54.53+2.00%+11.85%
$DJIDow Jones52,215.16+212.75+0.41%+8.64%
$KLCIKLCI1,611.56+3.81+0.24%-4.08%
$STIStraits Times5,422.16+6.63+0.12%+16.70%
$SPXS&P 5007,623.68-35.76-0.47%+11.37%
$SSEShanghai3,690.48-25.81-0.69%-7.01%
$NDXNasdaq 10028,957.53-230.02-0.79%+14.68%
$CSI300CSI 3004,105.33-65.28-1.57%-11.33%
$N225Nikkei 22562,693.16-2,631.13-4.03%+24.54%
$HSIHang Seng23,093.37-1,093.46-4.52%-9.90%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 43

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities ended mixed as concerns over AI spending and financing weighed on large-cap technology shares. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.47% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) lost 0.79%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained 0.41% and the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) led with a 2.00% advance.

Index Weekly Performance

-       Dow Jones (DJI): +0.41%

-       S&P 500 (SPX): -0.47%

-       Nasdaq 100 (NDX): -0.79%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ AI Funding Worries Hit Tech

Tech rebounded early in the week but reversed on Thursday as scrutiny of AI spending and funding returned. Meta fell more than 7% after raising its spending outlook, and every constituent of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed lower that day. The index lost 4% for the week and is down 15% in October.

2️⃣ Rotation Into Defensive Sectors

The tech sell-off did not become a broad rout, as money moved into utilities, consumer staples and health care. The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose nearly 2%, while the Dow, with less tech exposure, gained 0.4%.

3️⃣ Treasuries Rally, Yield Below 5%

The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 5% from a recent high of 5.3%, reflecting a flight to safety and nerves about the growth outlook. Markets now price less than a 10% chance of an October Fed hike, down from about 70% in September.

4️⃣ Oil Rises on Middle East Tension

Brent closed Friday at $116.72 a barrel, above its May high, after Houthi drone attacks on Saudi Arabia. Higher oil is feeding into U.S. inflation, with the PCE deflator expected to rise sharply.

5️⃣ Housing Weakens, Activity Holds Up

The NAHB index fell three points to 29, its lowest since 2012, and pending home sales dropped 7.3% month over month. Elsewhere, initial jobless claims fell to 194,000, the lowest since July, and the flash Composite PMI was 57.6, though selling prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2022.

6️⃣ Earnings Strong, Fed Meets Next Week

Of the 25% of S&P 500 companies that have reported, more than 80% beat consensus, with earnings growth expected near 30% this quarter. The Fed is expected to hold rates after its September hike, possibly with a couple of dissenters favouring another increase.


S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Energy, Health Care, Real Estate and Utilities posted the strongest gains among the S&P 500 sector ETFs, as defensive and energy-linked groups attracted flows. Communication Services was the weakest by a wide margin, followed by Industrials, while Technology slipped modestly. The SPY benchmark finished lower on the week. (Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

S&P 500 Sector ETFs — Weekly Performance
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
SymbolSectorClose (Wk)ChangeChg %YTD %
SPY ★S&P 500 ETF759.97-3.28-0.43%+11.45%
XLEEnergy69.33+1.09+1.60%+55.07%
XLVHealth Care179.28+2.57+1.45%+15.81%
XLREReal Estate42.57+0.41+0.97%+5.50%
XLUUtilities42.56+0.35+0.83%-0.30%
XLBMaterials51.31+0.39+0.77%+13.14%
XLPConsumer Staples88.26+0.64+0.73%+13.62%
XLFFinancials55.90+0.38+0.68%+2.06%
XLYConsumer Discret.113.10+0.64+0.57%-5.28%
XLKTechnology183.23-0.24-0.13%+27.27%
XLIIndustrials164.62-3.14-1.87%+6.12%
XLCComm. Services105.51-4.81-4.36%-10.37%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 43


Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 7,623.68, slightly below the prior week's close( 4 days were inside prior week's range, only Friday slightly below). The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) ended at 28,957.53, also the similar pattern as SPX. The Dow Jones (DJI) at 52,215.16- its 3rd weekly gain. NDX was the weakest of the three as chip stocks sold off. Chart structure remains a sideways consolidation across all three indices, with the Fed decision and big-tech earnings next week the likely triggers for a breakout.

πŸ“Š Weekly charts:

-       DJI weekly chart

-       SPX weekly chart

-       Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

 

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities declined as a technology-led sell-off, driven by worries over AI investment, financing needs and earnings, hit sentiment. The CSI 300 (CSI300) fell 1.57% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 0.69%, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 4.52%, with Hong Kong closed on Monday for the Chung Yeung Festival and underperforming on selling in internet and biotech shares. Mainland bank shares were comparatively resilient. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-       CSI 300 (CSI300): -1.57%

-       Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.69%

-       Hang Seng Index (HSI): -4.52%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Tech Rout Drives China Lower

AI-linked shares fell on concerns over investment spending, financing needs and earnings, while losses in U.S. tech and higher oil added to volatility. The CSI 300 fell into a technical bear market on Thursday, but a Friday rebound left it about 19% below its peak at the weekly close. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 5% on Thursday, its biggest drop since April 2025.

2️⃣ Q3 GDP Beats; Demand Stays Uneven

China's Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year on year, ahead of the 4.4% poll median. September industrial production rose 5.5% and retail sales 1.1%, while fixed asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months. The stronger headline may reduce the urgency for broad stimulus, though domestic demand looks uneven.

3️⃣ Platform and Biotech Policy Pressure

The market regulator met major online platforms, including JD.com and Pinduoduo, over product quality and counterfeits, and Hong Kong-listed e-commerce shares fell Thursday. On Friday, biotech shares dropped after the U.S. Treasury proposed wider outbound investment rules that add biotechnology. The proposal is open to consultation and has not taken effect.

4️⃣ PBoC Studies Policy Benchmark Change

PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng said the central bank is studying whether to make the overnight reverse repo rate, rather than the seven-day rate, its main policy benchmark to improve transmission. No change has been made. The one-year and five-year loan prime rates were left at 3.00% and 3.50%, as expected.

5️⃣ Maybank Securities Stays Defensive

Maybank Securities maintains a defensive stance until visibility improves, with Hong Kong seen as more resilient given its weighting in dividend-yielding financials and cash-generative companies. It favours Standard Chartered, BOCHK and Zijin Mining. Next week's Fifth Plenum could be an upside catalyst.


Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed at 23,093.37, down 4.52% on the week and 9.90% year to date, the weakest of the ten major indices in this week's table. The SSE ended at 3,690.48, down 0.69% for the week and 7.01% year to date, holding up better than Hong Kong. The trend remains weak in both indices, with next week's Fifth Plenum and U.S. tech earnings the likely swing factors.

Hang Seng Index Weekly Gainers

Only 10 of the 95 Hang Seng Index constituents gained for the week, with one unchanged and 84 lower. Sunny Optical led at +9.45%, followed by Hansoh (+3.97%), BYD Electronic (+1.91%) and BeOne Medicines (+1.51%). Power Assets was flat. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
HSI ★HSI ★23,093.37-4.52%-9.90%
2382Sunny Optical63.15+9.45%-3.66%
3692Hansoh33.00+3.97%-8.54%
285BYD Electronic22.46+1.91%-33.23%
6160BeOne Medicines228.40+1.51%+27.38%
9633Nongfu Spring41.52+0.78%-11.36%
2015Li Auto45.08+0.71%-30.49%
300Midea94.60+0.69%+11.36%
1810XiaomiHXXD26.80+0.53%-31.81%
12Henderson Land27.34+0.51%-2.84%
66MTR Corp32.40+0.06%+8.72%
6Power Assets60.55+0.00%+9.79%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 43

Hang Seng Index Weekly Decliners

A total of 84 of the 95 constituents declined. Lenovo (-19.32%) and CATL (-19.06%) fell the most, followed by CMOC (-10.95%), Laopu Gold (-10.67%), SMIC (-10.19%), Alibaba (-10.11%) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (-10.01%). CATL's slide followed 3Q results, where net income rose only 14.5% year on year on margin pressure from tax changes, per Maybank Securities. Tencent fell 7.61% and NetEase 7.44%, and the three telecom operators dropped between 4.76% and 7.40%. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
HSI ★HSI ★23,093.37-4.52%-9.90%
9961Trip.comHTGD314.80-0.06%-43.18%
322Tingyi12.35-0.16%+4.75%
2628China Life23.54-0.34%-14.02%
1997Wharf REIC30.32-0.46%+23.35%
823Link REIT38.02-0.47%+9.44%
1044Hengan19.70-0.51%-29.39%
3HK & China Gas7.17-0.69%+2.21%
2313Shenzhou Intl37.04-0.80%-39.48%
2057ZTO Express157.00-0.82%-3.27%
1113CK Asset44.12-0.85%+12.21%
386Sinopec4.46-0.89%-4.50%
2319China Mengniu Dairy18.63-0.90%+24.95%
1038CK Infra67.30-0.96%+16.84%
939CCB9.77-1.01%+26.98%
388HKEX370.80-1.01%-9.03%
1876Budweiser APAC6.01-1.15%-20.82%
669Techtronic129.10-1.30%+43.60%
2CLP Holdings76.05-1.43%+9.27%
6862Haidilao9.23-1.44%-35.23%
16Sun Hung Kai105.50-1.59%+11.40%
288WH Group6.34-1.78%-26.87%
2600Aluminum Corp China7.14-1.79%-41.33%
2318Ping AnHPAD49.02-2.06%-24.76%
1209CR Mixc38.86-2.07%-9.50%
960Longfor4.93-2.18%-42.35%
101Hang Lung Prop.6.25-2.27%-27.35%
291CR Beer19.37-2.32%-26.13%
1CK Hutchison64.35-2.35%+21.53%
1929Chow Tai Fook10.91-2.42%-11.95%
1099Sinopharm15.34-2.42%-21.09%
6618JD Health37.60-2.49%-32.25%
2388BOC Hong Kong48.88-2.53%+24.00%
1211BYDHYDD71.60-2.92%-24.91%
3988Bank of ChinaHBND5.96-3.01%+33.52%
1299AIA Group71.05-3.07%-11.08%
1378China Hongqiao19.02-3.16%-41.69%
2338Weichai Power24.60-3.23%+30.50%
3968CM Bank51.45-3.38%-2.56%
2020ANTA Sports75.30-3.40%-6.52%
883CNOOC23.12-3.51%+8.54%
6690Haier19.41-3.53%-20.06%
9901New Oriental46.42-3.57%+9.90%
2618JD Logistics9.89-3.65%-13.35%
2331Li Ning12.79-3.69%-31.49%
868Xinyi Glass7.79-3.88%-5.74%
857PetroChinaHPCD9.61-3.90%+14.62%
1519J&T Global Express8.93-4.03%-14.59%
2688ENN Energy48.06-4.17%-30.55%
9888BaiduHBUD75.95-4.41%-42.24%
1928Sands China10.98-4.44%-43.98%
1398ICBC7.24-4.61%+15.10%
241AliHealth2.87-4.66%-43.27%
941China MobileHCMD77.10-4.76%-5.63%
1177Sino Biopharm5.00-4.76%-19.09%
1024KuaishouHKUD27.90-4.78%-56.37%
5HSBCHSHD142.50-4.81%+16.42%
2269WuXi Bio45.80-4.98%+45.67%
1109CR Land29.50-5.02%+8.46%
175GeelyHGMD14.25-5.06%-20.39%
2359WuXi AppTec186.00-5.20%+88.45%
3690MeituanHMTD71.65-5.35%-30.64%
688COLI12.46-5.39%+1.71%
968Xinyi Solar1.81-5.47%-38.89%
9618JD.comHJDD100.00-5.75%-10.39%
27Galaxy Ent.31.60-5.78%-17.54%
1093CSPC Pharma8.35-6.02%-1.01%
836CR Power18.57-6.35%+7.28%
316OOIL150.30-6.41%+19.86%
1801Innovent Bio83.20-6.57%+9.11%
1088China Shenhua39.62-6.86%+2.11%
267CITIC11.92-7.38%-1.16%
9992Pop MartHPPD131.70-7.38%-29.83%
762China Unicom5.20-7.39%-33.16%
728China Telecom4.32-7.40%-19.94%
9999NetEase183.00-7.44%-14.73%
700TencentHTCD386.00-7.61%-35.56%
2899Zijin Mining29.46-7.82%-17.39%
1347Hua Hong Semi67.45-10.01%-9.22%
9988AlibabaHBBD97.80-10.11%-31.51%
981SMICHSMD47.06-10.19%-34.14%
6181Laopu GoldHLPD284.60-10.67%-53.95%
3993CMOC Group13.01-10.95%-32.38%
3750CATLHCCD356.80-19.06%-29.42%
992Lenovo22.64-19.32%+144.49%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 43

πŸ“Š Weekly charts:

-       SSE weekly chart

-       HSI weekly chart

 

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¬ Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore equities edged higher, with the Straits Times Index (STI) up 0.12% as REITs led and U.S. yields fell below 5%. Banks were little changed ahead of 3Q results, while shipbuilding, tech-linked and commodity names lagged. Eighteen of the 30 index constituents rose, one was flat and 11 fell.

Index Weekly Performance

-       Straits Times Index (STI): +0.12%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ REITs Lead on Results, Lower Yields

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (+5.83%), CapLand Integrated Commercial Trust (+3.14%), Keppel DC REIT (+2.90%) and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (+2.76%) led the gainers. Keppel DC REIT's 9M DPU rose 11.7% year on year, and Suntec REIT's Q3 DPU rose 13.4%. Lower U.S. yields could further support S-REITs.

2️⃣ Banks Steady Before 3Q Results

DBS rose 0.45%, OCBC was flat and UOB slipped 0.05%. Maybank Securities is positive on the sector and expects marginally weaker sequential earnings on lower trading income, partly offset by fees. It lists 3Q results for UOB on 4 Nov, DBS on 5 Nov and OCBC on 6 Nov.

3️⃣ Shipbuilders, Tech, Commodities Lag

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (-6.33%), Venture (-3.03%), Wilmar (-2.91%) and Genting Singapore (-2.46%) were the weakest performers. Venture's drop came as global tech stocks sold off. Singtel fell 1.44% after a S$1 million fine over March mobile outages.

4️⃣ September Inflation Edges Down to 2.2%

Singapore's September CPI rose 0.2% month on month and 2.2% year on year, down from 2.3% in August, on lower inflation for transport, information and communication services, furniture and clothing. The reading came in below an estimated 2.4%.


Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,422.16, up 0.12% for the week and 16.7% YTD. The index has formed two weekly almost indential candlesticks at its long-term uptrend support line( drawn from Apr 2025 through Jun 2026 low)--interesting to watchout coming week as a breakout beyond the trading range would lead to cleared direction. REIT gains were offset by weakness in shipbuilding and tech-linked names. The chart points to sideways consolidation, with other factos such U.S. tech earnings, the Fed and oil also likely to set the next direction. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
STI ★STI ★5,422.16+0.12%+16.70%
J69UFrasers CT2.18+5.83%-6.44%
J36JMH USD58.65+5.52%-14.24%
U14UOL7.92+4.07%-9.38%
C38UCapLand IntCom Tr2.30+3.14%-3.77%
AJBUKeppel DC REIT2.13+2.90%-5.33%
A17UCapAscendas REIT2.23+2.76%-21.20%
Y92ThaiBev0.43+2.35%-5.43%
BUOUFrasers L&C Tr0.91+2.26%-9.05%
N2IUMapletree PACT1.17+1.74%-20.41%
C6LSIA6.63+1.53%+3.59%
U96Sembcorp Ind6.01+1.52%-0.17%
C09CityDev7.13+1.28%-10.88%
D01DFI Retail USD3.33+1.22%-15.70%
M44UMapletree Log Tr1.09+0.93%-17.42%
9CICapLand Invest2.40+0.84%-11.44%
ME8UMapletree Ind Tr1.80+0.56%-13.46%
S58SATS3.60+0.56%-5.51%
D05DBS74.44+0.45%+32.08%
O39OCBC29.00+0.00%+46.76%
U11UOB41.59-0.05%+18.63%
H78HK Land USD8.20-0.61%+17.99%
BN4Keppel10.00-0.99%-3.38%
S68SGX20.77-1.10%+22.46%
Z74Singtel4.12-1.44%-9.45%
S63ST Engineering10.20-1.83%+21.14%
5E2Seatrium1.81-2.16%-16.20%
G13Genting Sing0.59-2.46%-17.93%
F34Wilmar3.34-2.91%+8.44%
V03Venture15.38-3.03%+1.59%
BS6YZJ Ship SGD4.88-6.33%+40.23%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 43

πŸ“Š Weekly charts:

-       STI weekly chart

 

πŸ“… Week Ahead (26–30 Oct 2026)

The FOMC decision lands Wednesday (28 Oct, 2:00 pm ET), with a hold expected after the September hike and Chair Warsh's tone in focus. The advance Q3 GDP estimate and September PCE inflation are both due Thursday (29 Oct, 8:30 am ET; Friday 30 Oct in Singapore), with consensus expecting GDP growth of 3.2% annualised. Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft are expected to report earnings, giving fresh updates on AI spending.

The Fifth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee runs 26–29 Oct in Beijing, with an official agenda centred on Party self-governance. Maybank Securities sees any policy surprise as a possible upside catalyst for Alibaba and Tencent, expects volatility to stay elevated into the U.S. midterm elections, and notes Standard Chartered reports 3Q results on 28 Oct.

Singapore will take its cue from the Fed, U.S. big-tech earnings and oil prices, with S-REITs sensitive to U.S. yields after the 10-year fell below 5%. The local banks report 3Q results shortly after the week, with UOB listed for 4 Nov, DBS 5 Nov and OCBC 6 Nov by Maybank Securities.

πŸ—“️ Overarching Watchpoint

The biggest binary risk is the collision of the Fed decision and hyperscaler earnings. Reassurance on AI returns could stabilise tech, while another capex-driven credit scare, or a hawkish Fed with oil near its highs, could extend the rotation and keep yields elevated.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Saturday, October 17, 2026

AI Unwind: Hot Inflation Fuels Rotation Into Defensives

For the week of Oct 16, global equities were driven by a rotation out of AI-linked technology and into defensive and value sectors as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation revived rate-hike worries. In the U.S., semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks sold off on financing and return concerns while the Dow held up and Treasury yields eased. In China/Hong Kong, mainland markets underperformed as chip and AI shares fell, even as surging exports underscored strong overseas tech demand. In Singapore, the market edged higher as the MAS surprised with a policy hold and local banks steadied.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

 

Major Indices — Weekly Performance
Week 42, 17 Oct 2026
SymbolIndex NameClose (Wk)ChangeChg %YTD %
$DJIDow Jones52,002.41+347.46+0.67%+8.20%
$STIStraits Times5,415.53+13.64+0.25%+16.56%
$KLCIKLCI1,607.76-0.69-0.04%-4.31%
$HSIHang Seng24,186.83-24.52-0.10%-5.63%
$SPXS&P 5007,659.44-152.10-1.95%+11.89%
$SSEShanghai3,716.28-97.51-2.56%-6.36%
$RUTRussell 20002,721.37-85.61-3.05%+9.65%
$CSI300CSI 3004,170.61-146.64-3.40%-9.92%
$N225Nikkei 22565,324.29-3,706.63-5.37%+29.77%
$NDXNasdaq 10029,187.55-1,695.60-5.49%+15.59%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 42

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities posted their worst week since June as an AI-led sell-off hit growth stocks. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) fell 5.49% and the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 1.95%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.67%. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) declined 3.05%, and the Russell 1000 Value Index beat its growth counterpart by more than 550 basis points as hotter inflation data and the start of third-quarter earnings season reinforced the rotation.

Index Weekly Performance

-       Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.67%

-       S&P 500 (SPX): -1.95%

-       Nasdaq 100 (NDX): -5.49%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ AI Financing Fears Trigger Sell-Off

Semiconductor and memory stocks came under pressure as investors scrutinised financing needs, valuations and returns on AI infrastructure spending. The SOX index fell for eight straight sessions from Oct 7 to Oct 16, and CoreWeave's credit-default swaps hit a record high. Micron and Intel slid further on Friday.

2️⃣ Inflation Surprises to the Upside

September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% consensus, with core CPI at 2.6% and gasoline prices up 9.1% month over month. Producer prices were hotter still, rising 6.3% year over year versus an expected 5.4%, the largest annual gain since December 2022.

3️⃣ Fed Stays Noncommittal, Yields Retreat

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the October meeting, saying the central bank is no longer in the business of prejudging outcomes. CME FedWatch showed roughly a 17% chance of a hike, little changed on the week. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.09% from 5.24% as tech weakness drew demand for bonds.

4️⃣ Consumer Spending Firm, Labour Steady

September retail sales rose 0.8%, ahead of expectations, though a 6.4% jump in gas station receipts drove much of the gain. Control-group sales rose just 0.1% against an expected 0.3%. Initial jobless claims held at 199,000, the fifth straight reading below 200,000.

5️⃣ Energy and Defensives Take Leadership

Escalating Middle East tensions supported oil prices, giving the energy sector a tailwind. Defensive areas such as consumer staples and health care also gained as investors moved toward quality. Investment-grade bonds advanced, while high yield turned sharply risk-off after Wednesday's CPI report.

6️⃣ Earnings Growth Underpins the Backdrop

Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth is expected at about 29%, with 10 of 11 sectors forecast to grow, and the SPX is up 11.89% year to date. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracks 3.6% annualised growth. Most mega-cap tech results fall between Oct 28 and Nov 2, a test of AI spending returns.


S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Consumer Staples, Energy, Health Care and Materials posted the strongest weekly gains, with Utilities, Financials and Real Estate also finishing higher. Technology was the clear laggard and fell sharply as semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks sold off. Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services also ended lower. Energy and Technology remain the year-to-date leaders despite the reversal.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

S&P 500 Sector ETFs — Weekly Performance
Week 42, 17 Oct 2026
SymbolSectorClose (Wk)ChangeChg %YTD %
SPY ★S&P 500 ETF763.25-15.32-1.97%+11.93%
XLPConsumer Staples87.62+4.19+5.02%+12.80%
XLEEnergy68.24+3.16+4.86%+52.63%
XLVHealth Care176.71+5.90+3.45%+14.15%
XLBMaterials50.92+1.49+3.01%+12.28%
XLUUtilities42.21+0.80+1.93%-1.12%
XLFFinancials55.52+0.79+1.44%+1.37%
XLREReal Estate42.16+0.55+1.32%+4.49%
XLCComm. Services110.32-0.06-0.05%-6.29%
XLYConsumer Discret.112.46-0.39-0.35%-5.82%
XLIIndustrials167.76-1.49-0.88%+8.15%
XLKTechnology183.47-15.31-7.70%+27.44%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 42


Technical Snapshot

The SPX closed the week down 1.95% to 7,659.44 , its largest weekly loss since June, while the NDX dropped to 29,187.55, both SPX and NDX fell back into their sideway consolidation weekly range. The DJI index held at 52,002.41, appears on the opposite movement to SPX and NDX, it actually rebounded for 2nd week. With AI-financing worries and the Oct 28 Fed decision ahead, the chart structure remains a sideways consolidation for the SPX, which has traded largely flat since August.


πŸ“Š Weekly charts:

-       DJI weekly chart

-       SPX weekly chart

-       Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

 

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities declined, with mainland markets underperforming Hong Kong as selling in previously strong semiconductor and AI-related shares weighed on benchmarks. The CSI 300 fell 3.40%, the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 2.56%, and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) edged down 0.10%. Financials held up better than technology, and mainland shares recovered modestly on Friday on share buybacks, upbeat profit forecasts and gains in property.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)


Index Weekly Performance

-       CSI 300: -3.40%

-       Shanghai Composite (SSE): -2.56%

-       Hang Seng Index (HSI): -0.10%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Chip and AI Shares Drag Markets

Semiconductor and other AI-related shares led the declines on renewed concerns about the scale and returns of AI spending, while stronger U.S. inflation revived interest-rate worries. In Hong Kong, Hua Hong Semiconductor fell 20.73%, Lenovo 14.56% and SMIC 9.11%. Analysts also cited mutual fund redemptions as added pressure.

2️⃣ September Exports Accelerate to Record

Exports rose 36.3% year on year in September, up from 25.0% in August and above forecasts, while imports grew 31.0%. The monthly trade surplus widened to a record USD 133.5 billion. Strong overseas demand for technology-related goods, including semiconductors and data-processing equipment, supported the gain.

3️⃣ Producer Inflation Jumps, Consumer Prices Lag

PPI rose 5.0% year on year in September, the fastest pace since June 2022, as energy and raw material costs climbed. CPI edged up to 0.9% from 0.8%, with core inflation unchanged at 1.0%. The data point to stronger producer-level price pressure without a comparable rise in consumer prices.

4️⃣ Maybank Securities Favours Defensive Resilience

Maybank Securities expects China's growth to stay subdued, with weak consumer demand and limited prospects for broad stimulus. It favours policy beneficiaries Lenovo(992.HK) and Zhongji Innolight (3308.HK), and defensive high-yield names China Mobile(941.HK)  and PetroChina(857.HK) . This week, China Mobile and PetroChina gained while Lenovo fell 14.56%.

5️⃣ Healthcare Splits After October Profit-Taking

The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell 10.6% during 1-15 October, mainly on profit-taking, with Insilico, XtalPi, Akeso and WuXi Biologics the major laggards. This week WuXi Biologics fell 10.49% and WuXi AppTec 5.67%, while BeOne Medicines rose 7.35% and JD Health 6.87%.


Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed at 24,186.83, down 0.10% on the week and 5.63% lower year to date, while the SSE slipped to 3,716.28. Mainland benchmarks underperformed as the CSI 300 lost 3.40%, with semiconductor and AI-linked names leading the weakness and financials holding firmer. With third-quarter GDP and September activity data due on Oct 19, near-term direction will hinge on those figures and on whether AI-related selling eases.

Hang Seng Index Weekly Gainers

48 of 95 Hang Seng Index constituents gained on the week, and two closed unchanged. Consumer and healthcare names led, with Shenzhou International (+7.36%), BeOne Medicines (+7.35%), ANTA Sports (+7.30%), JD Health (+6.87%) and Meituan (+5.87%) topping the list. HSBC added 3.10%, while CCB and ICBC rose 1.34% and 1.20%.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers
Week 42, 17 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
HSI ★HSI ★24,186.83-0.10%-5.63%
2313Shenzhou Intl37.34+7.36%-38.99%
6160BeOne Medicines225.00+7.35%+25.49%
2020ANTA Sports77.95+7.30%-3.23%
6618JD Health38.56+6.87%-30.52%
3690MeituanHMTD75.70+5.87%-26.72%
1099Sinopharm15.72+5.72%-19.14%
9901New Oriental48.14+5.71%+13.97%
241AliHealth3.00+5.07%-40.50%
316OOIL160.60+4.97%+28.07%
27Galaxy Ent.33.54+4.42%-12.47%
2331Li Ning13.28+4.08%-28.87%
1876Budweiser APAC6.08+4.02%-19.89%
291CR Beer19.83+3.66%-24.37%
1519J&T Global Express9.30+3.51%-11.00%
9961Trip.comHTGD315.00+3.48%-43.14%
5HSBCHSHD149.70+3.10%+22.30%
2319China Mengniu Dairy18.80+3.07%+26.09%
1299AIA Group73.30+2.88%-8.26%
1209CR Mixc39.68+2.80%-7.59%
1038CK Infra67.95+2.72%+17.97%
1810XiaomiHXXD26.66+2.70%-32.16%
669Techtronic130.80+2.59%+45.49%
823Link REIT38.20+2.36%+9.96%
9999NetEase197.70+2.17%-7.88%
66MTR Corp32.38+2.08%+8.66%
1109CR Land31.06+2.04%+14.19%
3968CM Bank53.25+2.01%+0.85%
9988AlibabaHBBD108.80+1.68%-23.81%
857PetroChinaHPCD9.99+1.68%+19.27%
2688ENN Energy50.15+1.52%-27.53%
939CCB9.87+1.34%+28.28%
1044Hengan19.80+1.28%-29.03%
267CITIC12.87+1.26%+6.72%
1398ICBC7.59+1.20%+20.67%
3HK & China Gas7.21+1.12%+2.92%
12Henderson Land27.20+1.12%-3.34%
941China MobileHCMD80.95+1.06%-0.92%
2388BOC Hong Kong50.15+0.95%+27.22%
3692Hansoh31.74+0.63%-12.03%
9618JD.comHJDD106.10+0.47%-4.93%
2057ZTO Express158.30+0.44%-2.46%
300Midea93.95+0.32%+10.59%
1928Sands China11.49+0.26%-41.38%
883CNOOC23.96+0.25%+12.49%
6Power Assets60.55+0.25%+9.79%
3988Bank of ChinaHBND6.14+0.24%+37.67%
2015Li Auto44.76+0.22%-30.98%
2CLP Holdings77.15+0.19%+10.85%
1929Chow Tai Fook11.18+0.00%-9.77%
322Tingyi12.37+0.00%+4.92%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 42

Hang Seng Index Weekly Decliners

45 of 95 constituents declined. Semiconductor and technology hardware names bore the brunt, led by Hua Hong Semiconductor (-20.73%), Lenovo (-14.56%) and SMIC (-9.11%). WuXi Biologics (-10.49%), CATL (-10.30%), China Life (-9.71%) and Weichai Power (-9.15%) also fell sharply, while Tencent lost 1.65%.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners
Week 42, 17 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
HSI ★HSI ★24,186.83-0.10%-5.63%
2618JD Logistics10.27-0.39%-10.07%
836CR Power19.83-0.50%+14.56%
728China Telecom4.66-0.53%-13.54%
868Xinyi Glass8.11-0.67%-1.93%
688COLI13.17-0.75%+7.51%
386Sinopec4.50-0.77%-3.64%
968Xinyi Solar1.92-0.78%-35.35%
175GeelyHGMD15.01-0.79%-16.15%
1997Wharf REIC30.46-0.85%+23.92%
388HKEX374.60-0.85%-8.10%
762China Unicom5.62-0.88%-27.83%
9633Nongfu Spring41.20-1.01%-12.04%
1CK Hutchison65.90-1.13%+24.46%
6690Haier20.12-1.47%-17.13%
1113CK Asset44.50-1.55%+13.17%
16Sun Hung Kai107.20-1.56%+13.20%
700TencentHTCD417.80-1.65%-30.25%
288WH Group6.46-1.97%-25.55%
6862Haidilao9.37-2.14%-34.28%
1093CSPC Pharma8.88-2.26%+5.34%
1211BYDHYDD73.75-2.45%-22.65%
1024KuaishouHKUD29.30-2.66%-54.18%
1177Sino Biopharm5.25-2.96%-15.05%
2899Zijin Mining31.96-2.98%-10.38%
101Hang Lung Prop.6.40-3.25%-25.67%
2318Ping AnHPAD50.05-3.47%-23.18%
1088China Shenhua42.54-3.80%+9.64%
1801Innovent Bio89.05-3.89%+16.79%
9888BaiduHBUD79.45-4.28%-39.58%
2382Sunny Optical57.70-4.63%-11.98%
285BYD Electronic22.04-4.84%-34.48%
3993CMOC Group14.61-5.19%-24.06%
6181Laopu GoldHLPD318.60-5.46%-48.45%
960Longfor5.04-5.61%-41.06%
2359WuXi AppTec196.20-5.67%+98.78%
2600Aluminum Corp China7.27-6.31%-40.26%
9992Pop MartHPPD142.20-6.63%-24.24%
1378China Hongqiao19.64-7.10%-39.79%
981SMICHSMD52.40-9.11%-26.66%
2338Weichai Power25.42-9.15%+34.85%
2628China Life23.62-9.71%-13.73%
3750CATLHCCD440.80-10.30%-12.80%
2269WuXi Bio48.20-10.49%+53.31%
992Lenovo28.06-14.56%+203.02%
1347Hua Hong Semi74.95-20.73%+0.87%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQ  |  Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 42


πŸ“Š Weekly charts:

-       SSE weekly chart

-       HSI weekly chart

 

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¬ Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) edged up 0.25% as the MAS surprised with a policy hold and bank shares steadied. UOB rose 4.13% and DBS 1.02%, while OCBC was flat. Seatrium, UOL and Keppel led the decliners, and several REITs also weakened.

Index Weekly Performance

-       Straits Times Index (STI): +0.25%


Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ MAS Holds Policy, Raises Growth View

The MAS unexpectedly kept the S$NEER slope at +125 bps per annum despite expectations for slight tightening. Maybank Securities noted that third-quarter GDP grew 5.4%, led by AI-driven manufacturing, trade and construction, and raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 5.6%.

2️⃣ Banks Steady After Recent Weakness

Maybank Securities noted Singapore banks had fallen 5% over six weeks on margin-squeeze and bond mark-to-market fears, but sees the yield impact as manageable and earnings as resilient. It stays positive on the sector, with OCBC the top pick and DBS the top technical pick.

3️⃣ Seatrium, UOL and Keppel Lead Losses

Seatrium fell 7.50%, UOL 4.40% and Keppel 3.99%, while Venture slipped 2.64%. REITs also weakened, including Mapletree PACT (-3.36%) and Keppel DC REIT (-2.82%). Outside the index, one broker attributed CSE Global's sharp drop to contagion from global AI and data-centre demand pessimism rather than company-specific news.

4️⃣ Deluge Debuts as AI-Themed SDRs Launch

Deluge listed on the SGX mainboard after its IPO was 3.86 times subscribed, with the public offer nearly 12 times covered at S$0.60 a share. SGX also launched five AI-themed SDRs on Friday, including TSMC and SK Hynix, tradable in Singapore dollars.


Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,415.53, up 0.25% on the week and 16.56% year to date. Daily closes held in a narrow band between 5,403.50 and 5,430.50, as bank strength offset weakness in several REITs and property names. Immediate technical support around 5362 and resistance at around 5455 for near term, watch STI beyond these levls for clearer direction coming week. Absent a fresh catalyst, the outlook rests on whether the AI-led global sell-off and U.S. yields stabilise, with Singapore's September CPI due on Oct 22.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance
Week 42, 17 Oct 2026
CodeCompanyClose (Wk)Wk %YTD %
STI ★STI ★5,415.53+0.25%+16.56%
U11UOB41.61+4.13%+18.68%
D01DFI Retail USD3.29+3.79%-16.71%
BS6YZJ Ship SGD5.21+2.16%+49.71%
H78HK Land USD8.25+1.85%+18.71%
BUOUFrasers L&C Tr0.89+1.72%-11.06%
S68SGX21.00+1.30%+23.82%
D05DBS74.11+1.02%+31.49%
U96Sembcorp Ind5.92+0.34%-1.66%
M44UMapletree Log Tr1.08+0.00%-18.18%
O39OCBC29.00+0.00%+46.76%
S63ST Engineering10.39-0.29%+23.40%
C38UCapLand IntCom Tr2.23-0.45%-6.69%
J69UFrasers CT2.06-0.48%-11.59%
C6LSIA6.53-0.61%+2.03%
G13Genting Sing0.61-0.81%-15.86%
C09CityDev7.04-0.85%-12.00%
A17UCapAscendas REIT2.17-0.91%-23.32%
Y92ThaiBev0.42-1.16%-7.61%
Z74Singtel4.18-1.42%-8.13%
J36JMH USD55.58-2.03%-18.73%
ME8UMapletree Ind Tr1.79-2.19%-13.94%
9CICapLand Invest2.38-2.46%-12.18%
V03Venture15.86-2.64%+4.76%
AJBUKeppel DC REIT2.07-2.82%-8.00%
F34Wilmar3.44-3.10%+11.69%
N2IUMapletree PACT1.15-3.36%-21.77%
BN4Keppel10.10-3.99%-2.42%
S58SATS3.58-4.02%-6.04%
U14UOL7.61-4.40%-12.93%
5E2Seatrium1.85-7.50%-14.35%
FJ · Market Wrap  |  sgtraderclub.blogspot.com  |  Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 42

πŸ“Š Weekly charts:

-       STI weekly chart

 

πŸ“… Week Ahead (19–23 Oct 2026)

U.S.: Earnings accelerate, with GE Aerospace reporting on Oct 20 before the open, Netflix after the close that day, Meta and Tesla after the close on Oct 21, and Procter & Gamble before the open on Oct 22. September housing starts and permits are due on Oct 20, followed by flash October PMIs and final University of Michigan sentiment on Oct 23. Markets will watch whether tech results ease or deepen AI-financing concerns, and how Treasury yields respond.

China/Hong Kong: China releases third-quarter GDP and September retail sales, industrial production and investment data on Oct 19, with a Reuters poll pointing to growth of about 4.4% year on year. The loan prime rate fixing follows on Oct 20, and the same poll expects rates to be held. Hong Kong traders will watch whether the semiconductor and AI sell-off steadies after the sharp falls in Hua Hong, SMIC and Lenovo.

Singapore/Regional: Singapore releases September CPI on Oct 22, after August headline inflation of 2.3%. UOL and CapitaLand Development preview the 1,268-unit Thomson Reserve from Oct 17, a gauge of new-launch demand after September home sales rose 16% year on year. OCBC reports third-quarter results on Nov 6 and UOB its trading update on Nov 4.

πŸ—“️ Overarching Watchpoint

Whether the AI-led sell-off deepens into Meta and Tesla's results on Oct 21 will set the tone for the Fed's Oct 27-28 meeting, where a rate hike remains possible after hot CPI and PPI prints. A deeper sell-off would extend pressure on Asian semiconductor names, while stabilisation could slow the rotation into defensives.

 

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

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