Stocks Hit New Highs on Strong Data

Summary of content for the week of  Apr 9:

1. Week 14 major indexes performance;

2. Week 14 US sector indexes performance;

3.Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S stocks closed steadily higher to record highs for the week ended Apr 9. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP) outperformed the broad market SPX index but stayed below its Feb peak, while DJI and SPX indexes hit record highs. 

Strong Economic Data: Trading got off to a strong start thanks to the previous week's monthly job data for March, which added 916k, well above forecast, and the most since last August. This week's data also surprised on the upside. The ISM report for service sector jumped to its highest level on record, mirroring the ISM's previous week released manufacturing report that has reached its highest level in 37 years. 

Growth stocks handily outperformed value shares, narrowing the performance gap for the year to date. Among SPX 11 sectors, the Technology(XLK) sector outperformed, and Energy(XLE) lagged. Refer to the below sector index ETFs weekly performance table for details.

Coinbase IPO in the coming week. One of the most high-profile public listings to hit the market this year will no doubt be Coinbase Global, the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. Coinbase(COIN.O) IPO trading will kickstart on Apr 14, Wednesday via a direct listing with no underwriters. Unlike many other IPOs, Coinbase already making a net profit expected approximately $730 million to $800 million for Q1 2021 alone. Click HERE for more info. 

China/HK

China/Hong Kong markets recorded weekly losses, extending several weeks of underperformance against other major global markets. Data indicating higher inflation and elevated U.S-Sino tensions weighed on sentiment and outweighed positive corporate earnings. 

On the corporate front news, China fines Alibaba(BABA/9988.hk) record US$2.75 billion for anti-monopoly violations over the weekend. BABA already under selling pressure for a couple of months since its Ant mega IPO was halted abruptly last November. HK's star tech stocks such as Tencent(700.hk) also under selling pressure after its biggest shareholder selling a 2% stake in the week. 

Technically, both SSE and HSI indexes' major uptrends are still well intact. 

Singapore

STI gained modestly in the week, added 0.09% to record the 7th week up in a row. The index appears losing steam and seen some profit-taking led the local banks. Technical resistance at 3300 and immediate support at 3100-level.

Outlook 2021 and Top Buy Stocks(Lists)

Two important lessons to learn from 2020 stock markets are to keep a long-term perspective and the belief that markets are forward-looking. Heading into 2021 we look forward to hopefully a year when the pandemic subsides, lives return closer to normal, and economic recovery picks up. Below are the highlights of the sectors with stock in focus for the year 2021.

1. Semiconductor/Chips: The global Semicon industry suffered its worst year in almost two decades and picking up to return to growth in 2020, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics. The group sees Semicon sales accelerating further in 2021. The fastest-growing category of semiconductors in 2021 is memory chips, with forecast growth at 13.3%. As electric vehicles, smartphones, 5G equipments etc all need chips, chips are in great demand. The largest chipmaker in the world is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM), and other top players including Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), Nvidia(NVDA), Qualcomm(QCOM), Apple(AAPL), and ASML(AMSL). Or Semicon Sector ETF SOXX.

In Hong Kong, related top players including SMIC(981) Sunny Optical(2382), AAC Tech(2018) or Hang Seng TECH Index ETF(3033) 

In Singapore, related tech players including AEM, Frencken, UMS

2. Food Delivery: Virus won't go away at least for quite some time, and home office will be the new norm. It's expected food delivery companies will do well. Companies in focus including Uber Tech(UBER), DoorDash(DASH).

3. Online Shopping and Logistics: Amazon(AMZN), Alibaba(BABA, or 9988.HK), Pinduoduo(PDD), ContextLogic(WISH), WISH is called the U.S version of China's Pinduoduo, just launched its IPO on Dec 16, it traded underwater to its IPO price US$24. and also FedEx(FDX) and United Parcel Service(UPS)

4. Remote Working: Zoom Video Communications( ZM), Cisco System(CSCO), Slack Tech(WORK), Alphabet(GOOGL), Facebook(FB), Microsoft(MSFT)

5. Online Education: TWOU(2U), Stride(LRN), 17 Education(YQ), GSX Techedu(GSX), TAL Edu(TAL) New Oriental Edu(EDU)

Hong Kong related stocks: New Oriental Edu(9901), Koolearn(1797)

6. Remote Healthcare: Teladoc Health(TDOC), American Well(AMWL), Veeva System(VEEV)

7. Online Entertainment: Netflix(NFLX)

8. Consumer Staples: Wal-Mart Stores(WMT), Costco Wholesale(COST), Procter & Gamble(PG), or SPDR Consumer Discret Sector ETF(XLY)

In Singapore, related stocks Wilmar.

9. Insurance and Wealth Management technology companies: Lemonade(LMND) Lufax(LU)

10. New Energy Vehicle companies: Tesla(TSLA), NIO, XPeng(XPEV), Li Auto(LI)

In Hong Kong, related stocks Ganfeng Lithium(1772) which is the top battery supplier to TSLA and other electric car companies. 

In Singapore, there are two companies with very unique business thus give them unbalanced advantages: Nanofilm and Credit Bureau Asia.

U.S Listed Cruise Travel Companies Hit Hard by Coronavirus

U.S listed cruise travel companies hit hard by coronavirus. Here's few prominent companies.#Carnival Corporation & Plc (NYSE:#CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:#RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:#NCLH). on the other hand, there is another company very often on news headline nowadays for new drugs to cure coronavirus. Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NasdaqGS:#GILD)

EUR/USD and The Dollar Index DXY

It's worth to note the charts for EUR/USD and the dollar index DXY. They are inversely related as seen below.

A rising dollar from bottom of chart at 91 to current price of 94 has formed an Head and Shoulder bullish reverse pattern(refer to DXY daily chart). With the same time frame, by looking at the EUR/USD daily chart, which has formed a head and Shoulder bearish reverse pattern(refer to EUR/USD chart).

Both patterns are powerful bottom and top reversal signal. DXY neckline at 94.14, with target price (TP) projection to 97.31, and EUR/USD neckline at 1.1665 with TP projection down to 1.1262, if both pattern work out.

Weekly Wrap

For the week, Shanghai and Hongseng indexes gained the most, buoyant by the announcement Shanghai-Hongkong Connect will be kicked start on coming Mon, Nov 17, finally. SSE hit multi-year high this week at 2508.623, crossed 2500 level for the first time since Nov 2011. The weekly candlestick looks bullish, all ready for coming strong move.

HSI on the other hand, may test 25000 level again in coming weeks.

The US three indexes continued up marginally.

STI gained 29 points closed at 3315 for the week. Have held well above 3300 mark so far. The weekly candlestick looks bullish. It may rebound further with immediate target at 3350.

Uncle Dow Tumbled but Recovered Halfway at Close

The DJI had a hard tumble last night, with intraday loss of 460 points but managed to recovered most of its loss. It close with 173 points down.

The VIX or CBOE volatility Index, often viewed as a measure of market aniety, jumped 15% to 26.25, it crossed 30 intraday. It's very bearish if it crossed 30 marks for VIX.

The Bottom Rebounding: ASNA(Nasdaq)

Weekly chart for ASNA.

Weekly/Monthly/Yearly Wrap

First week of 2014, major indexes retraced. In US, Dow lost 0.1%, S&P 500 lost 0.5% after hit new all time high previous week, Nasdaq lost 0.6%, after it has recovered almost 80% of its lost during Internet bubble since 2000yr. The three indexes are is nice uptrending with no signs of immediate retracement.

In Asia, STI lost 0.6%, Shanghai lost 0.9% and Hang Seng lost 1.8% for the week.

STI weekly chart below, it retraced this week after hitting 3167-3190 resistance zone(weekly high 3187.8) as I alerted in my previous weekly wrap. The weekly candlestick looks bearish, sellers are dominating the market now. My bias is to downside unless the index can close above 3190 for mid-term.

 Dec 2013 indexes performance table as below, the bulls and bears divided clearly between the US and Asia. The three US indexes added from 2.4% to 3.0% in Dec, whereas the lost from 0.3% to 4.7% for the three Asia indexes.

The year 2013 finally came to an end. Below table shows major indexes performance in the year 2013.
Nasdaq added 38%, awesome. S&P 500 and Dow added 30% and 27% respectively, it was a great reward year for those who invested in US.

Whereas for the three indexes STI, HSI and SSE, the performance were so pale for the year. HSI added 3%, STI no change, and SSE lost 6.7%-the worst index.

QE Tapering Will Start Jan 2014

US Government Begins Shutdown

Weekly Wrap

For the week, US markets 3 major indexes dropped for 2nd week, in Asian market, STI followed, broke its key support level 3200 to downside. However Hang Seng index rose the most with 710.3 points or 3.3% gain and Shanghai SSE index gained little with 16.2 points or 0.8%.

US markets dropped as latest PMI exceeded expectation and shows US economy is continue improving, market worries Fed will taper stimulus in coming Sep FOMC meeting. DJI hit its historical high two weeks ago, market is seen take this opportunity for profit taking as well.

In China, Shanghai market experienced its historical biggest swing on Friday due to a fat finger mistake by a Financial brokerage firm. A 7 billion RMB(1453 million SGD) was bought into blue chips within 2 minutes time, which pushed the SSE index to more than 100 points but gave back all on close eventually.

Continue look good on Hang Seng HSI index for coming week.

DJI weekly candle looks pretty bearish, further downside if the brown color uptrend line broke in coming week.

 STI broke down its four week consolidation 3200 support, two YEC level to watch in coming week: 3190, and 3167.

HSI looks bullish on weekly candle, further upside is expected in coming week.

 SSE formed a huge long tails on the top daily candle, short term trend is up. Expected to rebound in coming week.

Monthly and Weekly Wrap

Jul just ended. Global market posted a green month. In particular, the US 3 major indices hit their new historical high in Jul. Nasdaq rose the most in Jul with 6.6% up, HSI added 1080 points or 5.2% in second rank, Shanghai added the least for 14.6 points or 0.7% at 1993, still struggling to find support at 2000 level. Refer to below table for index Jul performance:

 For the week ended 2nd Aug, US 3 indices hit new historical high again, funds are flowing into the US. Shanghai managed to stayed above 2000 mark this week, closed at 2029. GIC of Singapore Government Investment Fund and Temasek Holding reported both are positive on the Chinese Economy outlook, as current structural reform in the financial and government investments is good for Chinese GDP in long run.


STI for the week resisted by 50% fib 3265 s shown in below chart. A break above this level would lift the index further up.

Gold and Silver Plunged

Weekly Wrap

For the week, all six indexes which I monitored are in red. DJI lost the least 0.1% and HSI was the the worst with 572 points or 2.6% down.



STI dipped below 3300 on close, after it spiked to as high of 3331.26 on Wed. The bearish HSI and China bird flu H7N9 spread made market jittery. It seems 3300 resistance is very strong for the index to cross above. If it can't cross above it, then another two options: sideway or drop. We should be cautious on long positions now. The immidiate support is at 3260.

Another important even for this week, Japan's move to follow Fed on monetary stimulus pushed Tokyo stocks higher. (click HERE for report).

USD/JPY on the strong uptrend.

刘明康：QE引通胀， 金融危机3年内再现

Weekly/Monthly Wrap

Last week, STI gained 49.5 points or 1.5%, closed at 3308.1 --- best performer among the six major indexes I'm monitoring, Shanghai index(SSE) was the worst performer which lost 91.7 points or 3.9% last week, worried about China property curb measures.

In the big picture, STI last week close was the highest weekly close since Jan 4, 2008. It has been trading in the range 3300-3260 most of the time for the past two months, hitting 100% fib resistance level 3307 now. The index still could move higher only when it closed above this level.

Below table is the monthly performance for major indexes. For the month of Mar, DJI gained the most, up 3.7%, Shanghai was the worst performer with 5.5% lost. STI gained 1.2%.

Is US Stocks Inflated Now?

USD and Gold

Gold ETF GLD dropped to its major support since Dec 2011 at around 152 this week. A break down below this level could lead further sell off on GLD.

On the other hand, the USD index is bullish recently, it closed at 81.5 last night, major resistance is the downtrend line at around 82.5.

Normally, a rising dollar would give downside pressure to stock market.

Weekly/Monthly Wrap

STI closed this week at 3291.14, with 21.83 point or 0.7% gain. Another 9points to reach my immediate target 3300. It should be easily takeover in coming week.

For major indexes in below table, Shanghai gained the most with 5.6% up. All the rest indexes are bullish for the week. A picture says thousand words.

Jan 2013 just ended, below table shows major indexes performance the month, the champion goes to DJI with 5.8% gain, and Shanghai followed by 5.1%.

STI next major target is at 3680 for this year. Let's see if it can achieved.

Yr 2012 Indexes Performance

Happy New Year 2013!

As we are heading to new year and new start, it's time to make new year's resolution again. To me, the significance of new year's resolution is not whether we can achieve it but the most importantly, to set a target and try our best to strive for it in the year.

The year of 2012 is a remarkable year. The world of financial market has gone through turmoils and it survived-- Greece remain inside the EU, the EUR did not collapse etc. The worst is over and 2013 is expected to be a better year. Let's take a look at the world's major indexes, their performance are stunning, all markets below has gone up, despite of crisis. You may wondering why it's so? "The opportunities are inside the risk."

For the past year, Hang Seng rose 22.9%, and STI is second with 19.7% gain.