Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Mar 27

Summary of content for the week of Mar 27:

1. Week 13 major indexes performance;
2. Week 13 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks rebounded from 3-yr low, as the Fed and government passed aggressive unprecedented level of monetary and fiscal stimulus. A total amount of $2 trillion package to offset the fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak. It's still early to conclude that a bottom emerged at current stage as the number of infected cases still growing. As there are many factors and news headlines out there everyday, a single key technical factor to watch in coming week is whether the SPX and Nasdaq price level can hit new high. 

Crude oil price back down again to close at 21.84 per barrel on Friday, lowest level since Feb 2002-18 year low. Oil related stocks hit badly. For bargain buying, one can look at Exxon Mobil(#XOM) and Chevron(#CVX) which are two of the world top oil production players offer high dividend yield. XOM and CVX dividend yield at 9.42% and 7.5% respectively which will offer cushion for downside risk. Click(HERE) to read more.

China/HK
China was the first country to get by COVID-19 and is the first country to bring outbreak under control. However, SSE index recent performance also followed other markets turned weak, it's rebound was the least one with less than 1% as compare to DJI's 13% weekly rally. So far, China has not delivered on major financial relief, though some additional stimulus is expected.

Singapore
STI rebounded back up and closed at its previous 10-yr low 2528 level, as bargain buying on banks and other blue chips emerged after it hit new low this week. Will be positive sign if it can hold above or around this level.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Mar 20

Summary of content for the week of Mar 20:

1. Week 12 major indexes performance;
2. Week 12 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks suffered another week of steep losses, as concerns deepened over the COVID-19 virus and its economic impact. SPX feel to its lowest level since 2017 and DJI fell back to lows since 2016. U.S three major indexes lost the most in my index watch table below, range between 12-18% for the week. Year-To-Date(YTD), DJI lost 32.8%, SPX fell 28.7% and Nasdaq(Comp) fell 23.3%, all these happeded just in four weeks time. Technically, SPX has already broken its long-term trend line support drawn since 2009 Financial Crisis. NDX index which is Nasdaq 100 ETFs still got some room above its long term trendline. As seen in below monthly chart. The selling is very heavy, no sign of bottom or rebound.

U.S called for 1.2trillion stimulus plan, EU announced 1 trillion in fiscal spending, Fed cut rate by a full 1% and restarting its bond-buying. Not only that, the oil price war send crude oil to 22.63 per barrel which fell back to level around Yr2001 low. For Shorter term crude oil ETF, may consider ETF #USO(3mths future contract), for longer term crude oil related ETFs, may consider #DBO(6 month contracts) and #USL(12 months contract).

All 11 major SPX sectors are badly selloff, Consumer Staples(XLP) is relatively resilient, and Energy(XLE) and Real Estate(XLRE) lost 20% and more for the week. 

China/HK
SSE index dropped 4.9% for the week. While it was reported no new domestic virus cases and China's business and factoring operation is on its way pushed back to normal. Economic data is much weaker than forecast. Investors is watching how is its recovery look like. HSI index fell 5.15 for the week, and will have bigger impact from U.S and foreign funds. Immediate technical level to watch is 22000.

Singapore
STI fell 8.5% for the week, and already lost 25.2% YTD by 20 March. The index trades below its 10-yr low level. Blue chips such as Singapore banks are trading below their tangible book values, appreas to be very attractive for longer term investment. All three banks dividend yield is above 6% and DBS is the highest at over 7% dividend yield. It's time to have longer term view in mind and accumulate in good quality top companies, while control your risk.   

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Mar 13

Summary of content for the week of Mar 13:

1. Week 11 major indexes performance;
2. Week 11 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

Many global Stock markets enter into bear markets after market collapsed. Bear market by definitely is a fell for 20% or more from their recent high. Refer to below table.

U.S
U.S stocks finished sharply lower and entered into technical bear-market territory as SPX fell 20.1% from their recent high to Friday close, despite U.S stock biggest rally in one day since Oct 2008 financial crisis. The collapse is mainly attributed to COVID-19 spreading globally and crude oil price crisis. All three major indexes rallied more than 9% on Friday, after Trump declared a national emergency as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, unlocking funds and initiatives to help in combat against the virus, and potentially ease some of the economic stress.

The biggest uncertainty among many is the impact of the pandemic, and investors do not like uncertainties this caused panic selling. U.S stock suffered most serious collapses since the "Black Monday" in 1987, triggered circuit breaker not once but twice within three days, dropped 7% during trading hour. 

The outlook for U.S stocks will depends on how virus been contained, while the only certainty is uncertainties, do expected market volatility remain high. The fear index VIX spiked up to above 50, extremely high. However, panic definitely is not a strategy to cope current situation, I remain my previous point that the virus impact will be meaningful but short term, the virus will be over. market will get back to normal. The event actually provide historical opportunity for investment. 

Stock sectors hit the most will be Travel, Hotels. As crude oil is sinking, oil related ETFs in focusing: #USO.N #DBO.N and USL.N

China/HK
China SSE index dropped 4.85% this week but appears very resilient as compare to other global markets. HSI as always have more impact from global financial markets, dived into bear market. Technically, HSI rebounded to its 61.8% fib level 24000 on Friday, immediate sppt at 23000 to 22500 area. 

Singapore
STI briefly hit 10-yr new low and rebounded on Friday as bargain buyer scooped up oversold blue chips. Watch immediate technical support level at 2510.88 in coming week(s).

U.S Listed Cruise Travel Companies Hit Hard by Coronavirus

U.S listed cruise travel companies hit hard by coronavirus. Here's few prominent companies.#Carnival Corporation & Plc (NYSE:#CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:#RCL), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:#NCLH). on the other hand, there is another company very often on news headline nowadays for new drugs to cure coronavirus. Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NasdaqGS:#GILD)

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Mar 6

Summary of content for the week of Mar 6:

1. Week 10 major indexes performance;
2. Week 10 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks edged higher by Friday close after a roller-coaster week. Fed had a surprise rate cut by 0.5% in its first emergence move since 2008 as a response to coronavirus outbreak and spreading fast to Europe and U.S itself. U.S 10-year treasury yield falling below 1% for the first time in history as a result of rate cut and capital flight to safety and economy growth concern due to virus impact. The latest Feb employment data beat expectation but the positive news was discounted by market. 

The biggest question in everybody's head is this a buying opportunity? Short answer is yes. As I said in previous post, the coronavirus impact will be meaningful but will not last long. Once virus is contained, market will rebound. The concern for economy recession is less likely given the current supportive monetary policy conditions. Take a look at below table for historical events and market performance.

Among the 11 major SPX sectors, defensive sectors outperformed, such as Utilities(XLU) and Consumer Staples(XLP), the Financials(XLF) and Energy(XLE) lagged. Refer to below table for SPX sector weekly  performance.

Technically, DJI rebounded and just closed above its 50% fib level 25640, SPX stronger and closed just beneath its 38.2% fib level 2993, it touched 50% fib 2870 level and rebounded; the technology dominant Nasdaq(COMP) index is the strongest among the three, it tested 38.2% fib 8444 level and closed above it this week. Continue watch these important fib levels 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% in coming week(s), while watching closely coronavirus continue spreading in EU and US.

China/HK
Shanghai SSE index had stunning weekly gain of 5.35% for the week, as data shows coronavirus cases in China peaked in Feb, this coincided with SSE index's bottom rebound. China's Q1 economic data expected to be negative affected but appears to be short-term when virus is contained and factories slowly operation normalizing. 

Technically, SSE index is testing its major resistance 3040 level and HSI index is weaker affected by developed markets but expected to have limit downside, near to its major support level 25800 which is 50% fib level also its 250 weekly MA. Not forgetting HSI will also get support and positive momentum from SSE.

Singapore
STI currently trading at its 5-year 61.8% fib level and 3-year low 2960 level. A key level to watch. Expected more downside if this level is broken, immediate support will be 2900, then 2800 level. Last weekly candle is bearish. Refer to below major indexes weekly charts.

Great Sales Shopping List(Compiled)

1) Key Strategy: Focus on top blue chips stocks as when market rebound they will be leading.
2) Time Frame: >3 months
3) Execution: From next week, aggressive to buy in one batch, conservative to buy in batches and from one day to weeks

List 1: Great Sales for Singapore Stocks
Key Stats:
1) STI 10-year High-Low: 3641.65(Yr2018)-2521.95(Yr2011)
2) STI 5-year High-Low: 3641.65(Yr2018)-2528.44(Yr2016)
3) STI 3-year High-Low: 3641.65(Yr2018)-2955.68(Yr2018)
3) Current level 3011.08 is at 56% discount from its 10-year peak and 57% from its 5-yr peak, 92% discount from its 3-yr peak.

Overweight:
1. Banks: DBS, UOB, OCBC
2. Technology: Venture (also can consider AEM and UMS)
3. Defensive and Singapore core Assets: SGX, ST Engineering, SingTel
4. REITs: Areit, MapletreeLog, MapletreeCom, CMT, CapitaCom
5. Local Developers: UOL, Capitaland, CDL
Refer to below latest data:

List 2: Great Sales for HK/China Stocks

2020 China Core Assets top picks:

1.    Wuliangye Yibin(000858.SZ)

2.    Alibaba(9988.HK)

3.    Tencent(700.hk)

4.    Meituan(3690.hk)

5.    ZTE(763.HK)

6.    Xiaomi(1810.hk)

7.    Pina an(2318.hk)

8.    Shimao Prop(813.hk)

9.    Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medl(300760.SZ)

10.  New Oriental Education(EDU.O)

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Feb 28

Summary of content for the week of Feb 28:

1. Week 9 major indexes performance;
2. Week 9 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks suffered their worst weekly decline since 2008 financial crisis, the three U.S major indexes fell into correction territory--down more than 10% from their recent peaks just a week earlier. (Refer to below major indexes weekly performance table). The fear index CBOE Volatility Index(VIX) spiked to near 50 on Friday, its highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008. And the only culprit is the coronavirus, which seeing rapid spread to other 52 countries globally outside of China. 

However, a slightest sign of relief on Friday as U.S stock rallied in final moments of trading to closed well off their day low on Friday. Nasdaq even crept into green. As Fed issued statement promising to take appropriate measures to support the economy. The coronavirus impact is viewed as meaningful but not permanent. It will slow down the economy but not totally derail economic growth prospects. Given that ample liquidity in the market, supportive monetary and fiscal measures, still good corporate earnings. The economy should pick up quickly once virus put under control. 

Having said that, do expected great volatility return to stock market as VIX surged. The VIX has been extremely low and quiet for the whole last year and do expect a return of normal volatile market. Despite the correction recently, U.S stocks are still up 6% over a 12-month period.Technically, US indexes are still in major uptrend and the technology dominant Nasdaq(COMP) is the strongest one. (Refer to below major indexes weekly charts). 

China/HK
I will have a follow up post for Great Sales Shopping List for Singapore, and HK/China stocks separately. Stay tuned.

The rapid spread of coronavirus to other countries has drawn attention away from China, where recent news has been relatively encouraging. China SSE index has been held up relatively well compare to other markets but on Friday, the SSE index jumped off 3.7% down responding to panic selling on U.S markets on Thursday. SSE index lost 5.24% this week versus 11.49% for SPX.

There is a switch of emphasis in China away from lockdown and quarantine to getting quickly back to work to reduce damage to the economy. Whereas in HK, HSI index lost the least of 4.32% for the week, expected there are limited downside for the index as it's already near its major technical bottom range.( refer to below major indexes weekly chart).

Singapore
STI has broken down its uptrend line decisively this week to near its Jan 2019 low, the weekly candlestick chart is bearish but do expect major technical support at around 3000 to 2955 which is Oct 2018 low, when the trade tariff war began between U.S and China and spooked investors for panic selling.