SPX Backed to Pre-Pandemic Level, gained 4.4% Year-To-Date

 Summary of content for the week of  Aug 14:

1. Week 33 major indexes performance;
2. Week 33 US sector indexes performance;

3. Gold and Silver Price
4. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S and Global

U.S stocks extended their weekly gain, though it appeared bumpy and very near unchanged mark. SPX rises to within a whisper of its all-time high last seen on Feb 19. So far, the index has rebounded 50% from its Mar lows, but the economy still a long way from recouping its pre-pandemic GDP level. The giant difference was attributed by some analysts as the stocks are forward-looking and reflect future expectations, but economic readings display recent but backward-look activities. While markets appear churning at the top, there are some bearish divergency signals that emerged for now, keep monitoring.

GOLD and Silver

Gold and silver experienced profit-taking, recorded their first week down after 9-week consecutive up. In its latest filing, Warren Buffet's company Berkshire added just a single new stock to his portfolio: Barrick Gold (Code: GOLD.N), read more HERE 

SPX Sector Indexes Industrial(XLI) and Energy(XLE) outperformed this week while Utility(XLU) and Real Estate(XLRE) lagged. 

China/HK

Mainland China stock ended the week broadly unchanged as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the U.S-China phase one deal review on Aug 15. It reported on Sat the two sides have decided to postpone the meeting to a future date. 

U.S continues to take action against Chinese big tech companies such as TikTok, Tencent's WeChat and the latest on Alibaba increased uncertainties to HK financial markets.  HSI index rebounded this week after 4-week down in a row.

Singapore

STI recorded 2nd-week rebound in a row. Immediate technical support at 2477-2502 level and upside 2705 level.

Dollar Drops, Gold and Silver up

 Summary of content for the week of  Jul 32:

1. Week 32 major indexes performance;
2. Week 32 US sector indexes performance;

3. US Dollar Index, Gold and Silver Price
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S and Global

U.S stock extended the previous weekly gains, DJI played catch-up for the week and was the top performer index with 3.8% gain weekly. Nasdaq hit record new high and SPX just a throw stone away from its all-time high in Feb 2020. U.S economy added 1.76 million jobs in Jul, beating estimates, against negative sentiment on the stalled fiscal stimulus package and the heightened tensions between U.S and China.

Industrial and Financial outperformed. Market rotated to the more cyclical sectors such as Industrial(XLI) and Financials( XLF) from the big tech names in the previous week. Real Estate(XLRE) and Healthcare(XLV) lagged for the week.

USD, Gold and Silver. Dollar Index $DXY continues under downside pressure, mainly due to economic downturn, high level of government debt, and near-zero interest rates. Against the dollar index, Gold and Silver price rallied high. Gold hit a record of $2063 before profit-taking a bit, as investors worry that unprecedented government stimulus would cause a spike in inflation. Another precious metal that might play catch-up is Silver, which started rally since Jul to close at 28.4 this week, but still far away from its peak at 49.85 in 2011. 

China/HK

Mainland Shanghai Composite Index SSE up for 2nd week in a row after data lifted confidence in economic recovery. Technically SSE index has broken u major triangle formation and currently in 5-week sideways consolidation range with a bullish bias. HSI index appears much weaker, fell 4th week and still unable to clear 25000 resistance level. Increased on virus cases and Trump's attack on TikTok then WeChat in the week caused a knee-jerk selling of Wechat parent Tencent(700.HK) to 10% in one point and still down 5% after recovered about half of its loss on Friday. Tencent is the single most weighted stock in the HSI index. 

Singapore

STI dipped below 2500 support level in the week then rebound closed above it, the first week up after 4-week down streak. A good level to consider accumulate some good fundamental blue chips such as the three local banks. Refer to the major index weekly charts below.

Great Sales Shopping List(Compiled)

1) Key Strategy: Focus on top blue chips stocks as when market rebound they will be leading.
2) Time Frame: >3 months
3) Execution: From next week, aggressive to buy in one batch, conservative to buy in batches and from one day to weeks

List 1: Great Sales for Singapore Stocks
Key Stats:
1) STI 10-year High-Low: 3641.65(Yr2018)-2521.95(Yr2011)
2) STI 5-year High-Low: 3641.65(Yr2018)-2528.44(Yr2016)
3) STI 3-year High-Low: 3641.65(Yr2018)-2955.68(Yr2018)
3) Current level 3011.08 is at 56% discount from its 10-year peak and 57% from its 5-yr peak, 92% discount from its 3-yr peak.

Overweight:
1. Banks: DBS, UOB, OCBC
2. Technology: Venture (also can consider AEM and UMS)
3. Defensive and Singapore core Assets: SGX, ST Engineering, SingTel
4. REITs: Areit, MapletreeLog, MapletreeCom, CMT, CapitaCom
5. Local Developers: UOL, Capitaland, CDL
Refer to below latest data:

List 2: Great Sales for HK/China Stocks

2020 China Core Assets top picks:

1.    Wuliangye Yibin(000858.SZ)

2.    Alibaba(9988.HK)

3.    Tencent(700.hk)

4.    Meituan(3690.hk)

5.    ZTE(763.HK)

6.    Xiaomi(1810.hk)

7.    Pina an(2318.hk)

8.    Shimao Prop(813.hk)

9.    Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medl(300760.SZ)

10.  New Oriental Education(EDU.O)

China Minsheng Bank

Hong Kong Banks and Gaming Stocks

I see value in Chinese banks as Shanghai index dropped to its new low since 2009, and Hang Seng dropped to its near 20000 level. Chinese banks dropped quite a lot due to recent cash squeeze. Good time to buy if SSE below 2000.

Below are some major banks H share and gaming stocks in HK market.

Yr 2012 Indexes Performance

Happy New Year 2013!

As we are heading to new year and new start, it's time to make new year's resolution again. To me, the significance of new year's resolution is not whether we can achieve it but the most importantly, to set a target and try our best to strive for it in the year.

The year of 2012 is a remarkable year. The world of financial market has gone through turmoils and it survived-- Greece remain inside the EU, the EUR did not collapse etc. The worst is over and 2013 is expected to be a better year. Let's take a look at the world's major indexes, their performance are stunning, all markets below has gone up, despite of crisis. You may wondering why it's so? "The opportunities are inside the risk."

For the past year, Hang Seng rose 22.9%, and STI is second with 19.7% gain.

Weekly Wrap

STI gained 61 points or 2% this week, closed at 3168. Four weeks consecutive up in a row. Another 22 points to reach 3190 target which I said in previous weekly wrap. It appears to me the target will be hit easily in coming week. STI buoyant by Hang Seng and Shanghai market this time. The S-chips are under spotlight now.

However, the US indexes are showing some bearish signals, within the uptrend still. Continue to watch uptrend line to be hold.

Weekly Wrap

STI added 37 points or 1.2% closed at 3017.11, weekly high is 3010.51, almost exactly equal to this year high 3010.86. STI has had three weeks green candles in a row so far, rose 161 points or 5.4% in total.

STI next target is 3190( Yr2010 close) if it can stay above current 3010 level.

US market, three major indexes DJI SPX and nasdaq all buoyant by good jobs data. The major uptrend channel are supported very well.

Shanghai SSE index reclaimed 2000 level, closed at 2061, up 4.1% for the week,
Hongkong HSI index up 0.7% in the week, hit its major downtrend channel at 22380 thereabout. Next target is 23035(Yr2010 close) if it were moved higher.

Weekend/Monthly/Quarterly/Half Year Wrap

Hello everyone. Hope you have had a nice weekend. As my fixed schedul for every Sunday morning, I go for hiking with my Hiking Kakis Group. I have been doing this for more than two years, it already became part of my life. After a sweating hike( usually two hours), I just feel my whole body is emptied and purified, and I especially enjoyed the breakfast time with fellow hiking kakis after that. We gather at a big round table sitting for 10pax, at a not crowded hwaker centre corner, with slightly cool morning breeze, enjoy our breakfast and drinks together. We chit chat lively all topics including food, fun place, news head lines, and we just decided in the morning to have a getaway in Oct. Great.

Let's talk about market, Mr. market has had a marvellous rally towards the end of the month, also the quarter, on good news from the ECB plus perhaps the end of quarter window dressing. This is annoying because it out of everyone's surprise, maybe for no reason. But it rallied. The only question we should ask ourselves is did we catch it? why we didn't, not to questioning why it rallied. I did catch few nice trades as I posted 'em.

I'm offering you below performance stats for world major indices over past week and month. Shanghai is the only market had negative performace.

 STI: approaching its middle wave level at 2905( 50% fib).

STI Monthly: In longer time frame, STI uptrend channel holding well. It rebounding from its bottom channel this month.

 DJI: weekly shows it closed above its 50% fib and just above its 61.8% fib level. bullish.

 DJI: long time uptrend channel well intact.

SPX: Weekly chart shows it just at 61.8% fib level. well above its middle wave level. Upside bias.

 SPX: monthly chart shows long time trend well intact as well.

HSI: bottom outfrom its major support

HSI: long time chart shows its uptrend channel is well intact.

Major Market Update

Good morning everyone. Below charts are the major Indices updated in my weekend workshop, for those who unable to attent.

STI closed an inch below its important 50% level at 2918, more upside to go if it can break and close above this level.

DJI marginally break above its multi year high on close last Friday. Very bullish.

S&P 500: at Resistance level last Friday.

Nasdaq: the strongest one among the three US indices. Breaoutout its major resistance level on Friday.

Hang Seng:  similiar to STI chart, HSI at its important 50% level 20734 now, more upside if it can break and stay above this level.

Shanghai Index: one of the worst performer in the world. Shanghai index lagging behind a lot, still got a lot of room to catch up.

Broad Markets Update

I had a broader look at the major indices, below:

STI : at downtrend line resistance ( tinted oval), next major resistance 3080 if it broke above the trendline.

SSE: Bullish, next resistance 3000

HSI: Breaking out resistance 23100 now, major resistance will be the downtrend line( red diagonal)