For a trader, winning is extremly dangerous if you haven't learned how to monitor and control yourself.

The Secret Recipe: Trading Success = Winning Trading System - U


Saturday, July 31, 2010

Gooood -Bye, July!


July is over, the first month after my return from holiday. I'd say it's the best performance month of my trading so far, I've never feel so smooth in my trading. The major improvements that I think are I'm more calm and less emotional in trading. Few other points I want to adress are:

1. It does not need complex strategies to achieve success. Simple is effective.
2. Trust yourself, act with confidence.
3. Be crystal clear in what you are doing. 知己知彼,百战不殆。
4. Be patient. Wait for the best opportunity. Market never die.

Last but not least, I need more holidays!

Speculation and Trading vs. Gambling

I happened to read this article online and thought it will be useful for you to read it too:

Is there a difference and if there is, what is that difference? Is there a grey area in between? Both trading (the term "speculation" can be used interchangeably) and gambling imply risk to capital. Risk exists in the very act of living. Here are my starting definitions and a signpost to the potential difference between the two:
A speculator seeks to take advantage of risk that is already in existence. He does not create the risk.
A gambler creates the risk. Without action on the part of the gambler, the risk does not exist.
Here is another potential difference. The speculator makes a trading decision based some type of analysis and can modify his risk and capital committed to the trade through time. The gambler, however, once the bet is placed, is now an observer and the rules of the game now control the outcome.

There are many games of chance. A professional poker player may actually approach trader status. He plays with a definable edge and I consider poker to be a game of skill. For the purposes of illustration of the differences between trading and gambling, I will use the game of blackjack in a casino setting.

The blackjack player's first decision is the size of his bet. A trader makes the same decision as to trade size. The dealer deals you your first card. You can do nothing. This is the equivalent of a price move to a trader and he can then re-evaluate his position. He can exit, he can increase his size, etc. Dealer finishes the deal. You now know what your hand is and half the hand of the dealer. Now the blackjack player has decisions to make. He can hit, stand, double down and split his cards. He can also choose (if rules allow) to surrender half his bet. These are also the equivalent of price moves in a trade. Now, the dealer has dealt you a blackjack, can you increase your bet to the total size of your bankroll? Of course you cannot. A trader could!

Now let us examen expectancy of outcomes. A trader has a perceived edge when entering a trade. It is developed over time using the same trading setup. Does the trader know the outcome of the trade? Of course he does not. However, he CAN know the outcome over a large population of trades using the same setup with the trades all executed in the same manner (discipline). Does the blackjack player know the outcome of the hand in advance? Of course not. Neither does the casino. The casino could not care less about the outcome of your hand either.

They are playing thousands of hands and the casino has the edge. Their edge is that you have to make decisions before the casino does. You lose your hand by busting out and the casino busts out as well, the casino already has your money. There is no equivalent of this when trading. Can the casino's edge be overcome? Yes it can but only by applying a very high level of skill. In days past, you could count cards. The casinos have employed counter measures and there is no longer an edge counting cards. However, advanced shuffle tracking methodology CAN give you an edge. This is the same as trading then in some respects. A highly developed skill set can overcome the beginning negative expectancy in a trade which is the spread between bid and asked and the commission for the trade. You begin each trade negative.

When does trading become gambling? There is a very thin line. I maintain that most traders ARE gamblers. They use markets as a substitute for a casino. Here are some of the sign posts that you have crossed the line. I love Jeff Foxworthy so I will steal his "you just might be a redneck."

1. IF you enter trades without a clear trading plan, you just might be a gambler.
2. IF you trade just to be trading, you just might be a gambler.
3. IF your bored and enter a trade, you just might be a gambler.
4. IF you look at potential profit before assessing potential loses, you just might be a gambler.
5. IF you have no impulse control, you just might be a gambler.
6. IF you have no methodology, you just might be a gambler.
7. IF you rely on others for your trading decisions, you just might be a gambler.
8. IF you do not take full responsibility for your trading outcomes, you just might be a gambler.
9. IF you increase your risk due to losses, you just might be a gambler.
10. IF you do not use stop losses or do not adhere to them, you just might be a gambler.

And my all time favorite
11. IF you get an adrenaline rush when your entering trades, you just might be a gambler.

In summation I would like to say that I do enjoy casino gambling as a form of entertainment. I strive to over come the house's edge when I do gamble. Gambling is entertainment and trading is a business and should be approached as a business enterprise. IF your using the markets as a gambling outlet, be my guest. Traders that approach trading with a positive expectancy WILL take all your money. They will send you stumbling out into the night, cross-eyed and mumbling to yourself. Be smart. You can either feed the trading gods or feed your head. Do the work and get educated before risking one thin dime. Employ laser like focus in your trading and use iron discipline. The end result can be well beyond your wildest expectation.

I'm a Stock Broker too

Friday, July 30, 2010

STI Looking to Crossover 3000

STI closed at 2997.65 yesterday. It will most likely crossover 3k level today, it was happened once in Apr.

Here's few of notable charts:

2010Jul-Wing Tai-800x600


HL Asia
2010Jul-HL Asia-800x600

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Plantation Sector Warming up?

The plantation sector has been in silent mode for quite some time, partially attribute to not-long-time ago media reports about the "big brother" wilmar on tax issue.  Since then Wilmar plunged more than 15% in share price and rebounded. Now it still in the course of recovery, not yet reach to its Apr high of $7.

 Below are some fundamental information for plantation stocks. My top picks from charts perspective will be Indoagri at present.



Malaysia and Indonesia as two of the world largest plantation and palm oil producers.
Palm oil inventories are at the lowest level in 10 months due to stronger 1H10 exports coupled with marginal production growth. Inventory to production ratio in Malaysia is only 1.02 months.
 
Peninsular Malaysia production dragged down by tree stress. For 1H10, production in Malaysia inched up by only 0.7% to 7.98m tonnes. Production from Peninsular Malaysia fell 3.9% yoy, offsetting the 7.4% production growth in East Malaysia.

Production in Peninsular Malaysia was hit by biological tree stress after two years of good harvest in 2008-09. Meanwhile, East Malaysia, which suffered from heavy rainfall in 1H09, showed a significant improvement in production in 1H10.


 
Demand from key customers growing strong. In 1H10, palm oil exports rose 8.8%,  thanks to strong demand from China (+23%), the EU (+15.1%) and the US (+15.3%).

India’s palm oil intake slowed down in 1H10 as demand shifted from refined palm oil to soybean oil because refined palm oil was more expensive than soybean oil in India on a few occasions in Feb 10 and May-Jun 10.
   

Analysis on Gold( Video)

NOL Breakout

NOL live chart:

NOL

OCBC

Sometimes you may need to keep it in your watchlist for few days to let it work out, patience is the key. Just like OCBC which I posted two days ago( click HERE ) , it work out yesterday. Let see how far it can fly from here.

2010Jul-OCBC Bk-800x600

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Singapore Tourism Sector

Companies with strong exposure to Singapore hospitality:

CDL HT
Ascott Reit
UOL
Tiger Airways

Tourism sector as one of Singapore's major economic driving force is likely continue its growth towards to the end of the year.

Trading Books for Beginner

Temasek' Singapore Portfolio Update

Temasek is divesting its 14.7% stake in F&N to a Janpanese  F&B company Kirin for S$6.5/share, the premium is so high as compare to its current price at around S$5.8, the Japanese is smarter or Singaporean? hmmm...

Here's Temasek's overall holdings in its Singapore portfolio after the deal:

Temasek holding

plus other non-core holdings not in the list:

Raffles Med:  4.9%
Tiger Airways: 7.5%
Auric Pacific: 4.8%

It's Hitting the Roof

Hi folks, we are very much close to 3000 important psychological level now. Maybe up by another 30 points or so, not more than that. The upside is limited in short-term. On the other hand, the financials ( i.e DBS, OCBC, UOB and SGX) are still looks more bullish than bearish to me, they may move up a bit thus push STI higher( the 30points move?)

2010Jul-Straits Times-800x600

The US benchmark S&P 500(SPX) too resisting at its 50% fibonacci level last night.
SPX

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Shanghai and Hangseng Stock Exchange

Both HSI and SSE indices are at their resistance level. With Hangseng needs to passover the line of 20960 in order to move higher.
2010Jul-Shanghai Stock Exchange-800x600

Shanghai index need to break above its 2590 resistance in order to move higher. The relatively bearish sentiment in regional market could drag our STI from being climb higher.
2010Jul-Hang Seng Index-800x600

Two Notable Charts

Good morning everyone,

Straits Times Index has been trading in the range for past two days. waiting for leaders take a move.

OCBC is knocking its $9 resistance again. A break above the level could lead it soaring to north.

2010Jul-OCBC Bk-800x600

ChinaFish is at its resistance turn support point now, awaiting for interest come in...

2010Jul-ChinaFish-800x600

Monday, July 26, 2010

Bullish Pattern

Let's have this Midas Touch!

2010Jul-Midas-800x600

StraitsAsia just had a nice breakout, more upside move is expected.

2010Jul-StraitsAsia-800x600

Straits Times Index

The STI obviously is -- bullish. It just passed a major resistance level at 1958 on Friday and closed at 2973.
However, we are into the great congested area-- the top formed at middle of May( Circle of red area), from 1958 to 3007. We have limited upside by now, I guess the market is likely stall and sideway for this week. Do watchout the support and resistance level for upside or downside move.

Support: 1958
Resistance 1: 2985
Resistance 2: 3007

2010Jul-Straits Times-800x600

Friday, July 23, 2010

Few Longs

Em watching out Oil and gas sector for more upside potential.

2010Jul-ChinaAOil-800x600

2010Jul-SembCorp-800x600

2010Jul-UOB-800x600

STI: 2958 resistance is the Key

Straits Time Index is attacking 2958 again, see wether if it can breakout. The next level would be 3000 if it does.

2010Jul-Straits Times-800x600

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Cosco: Another Moving Star

it just breakout ascending triangle 1.65, with target 1.7

Cosco

No Lunch Break?

Our Singaporean really hard-working and this is the new implementation which SGX is considering right now...to get rid of the lunch break. if so, the operation time on SGX will be from 9am to 5pm, that's eight hours.

Let's take a look at regional market operation hours:

HKSE: 4hrs
Shanghai :4 hours
Tokyo: 4.5 hours
Singapore: 6.5 hours

Singapore market so small. I'm wondering is there a demand for such a long trading hours.

SGX

My New Long Position

Olam

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Straits Time Index Unable to Clear 2960

It has been hit for six days or so the resistance of 2960 still unable to clear,I exited my longs on Ho Bee this morning with good profit. Probabaly wait for market retrace a bit is better choice.

STI

Singtel

Singtel had a nice breakout and pull back to its support. It's kind of low risk high reward play to me.

2010Jul-SingTel-800x600

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Capitland Breakout

capitland

Properties are Under Spotlight

Properties are going up now( 1128am). Very strong.

Long candidates: Ho Bee and SC global.

Kepland +11c at 4.22
Citydev +38c at 11.78
Capitaland +4c at 3.82
Wing tai +8c at 1.71
Ho Bee +6c at 1.56
Sc global +5c at 1.62

Ho Bee Live Chart:
Hobee

SC Global live chart:
Sc global

Few Notable Charts

The market doesn't drop as much as we thought-- I mean Singapore market. STI indices is widely expected to be one of the best performer indices in the world. A big wow!

STI may heading up to test 3000 in short term, if it can break 2960. Below are few notable chart poised for more upside.

Tigerair

2010Jul-ChinaFish-800x600

2010Jul-M1 LIMITED-800x600

Monday, July 19, 2010

Market Update

The US market retraced nicely after it hit resistance on last Fri. But Be careful with the direction of SPY, as it's in the middle of the support resistance range now, the 105 to 107 area was congested during late May to early June.

2010Jul-SPDR S&P 500-800x600

STI hit its resistance 2960 too, and poised for a pull back this week. I'm watchin 2885 for key support.
2010Jul-Straits Times-800x600

Friday, July 16, 2010

Swiber

Good morning everyone, T.G.I.F

I'm thinkin of this market cycle: we started at market bottom, blue chips run first, they will stall after a period of stunning upway. then it's small/cheap stock's turn... at the time market encounter certain resistance and keep on sideways for some time. It may go either ways after this, continue 2nd phase of uptrend if blue chips regain the upward momentum triggered by upbeat news, or go down which lead by blue chips too. And those who boarded lately will suffer...

I think we are at the juncture now, it either continue its 2nd phase uptrend after some time of consolidation or go down from here...lead by blue chips.

I'm lookin at Swiber as asked by GUSET, it has to break above 1.04 two or three points then I consider enter only.

2010Jul-Swiber-800x600

Parkwaylife REIT Update

Parkwaylife

Parkwaylife REIT had a beautiful breakout yesterday. Thanks GUEST for the alert.

2010Jul-PARKWAYLIFE REIT-800x600

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Straits Time Index

The quick running up on STI is now coming to an end( at least a pause)possible, as it approaching 2960 resistance.

2010Jul-Straits Times-800x600

Parkwaylife REIT

It intrigued me with this stock from a "GUEST" comment on "Chat Box" of this page. I decided to post it out here just for the sake of learning. GUEST bought it at 1.39, and 1.4 is the beautiful major resistance. Personally I would rather prefer to buy it after it breakout. Well...a big "HOPE" to this ascending triangle to work out.

2010Jul-PARKWAYLIFE REIT-800x600

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

China XLX Move Up

China XLX live chart as at 3.38pm:

China XLX

Next Line of Important: 2937

In the Span of seven trading days, the STI has exploded 3%, the next "line in the sand" is 2937, a breach of this line would weaken the bears, a break of 2960 resistance would hammer the bear even harder.

2010Jul-Straits Times-800x600

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Citigroup Poised Move Higher

C

Shanghai Index hit Resistance

SSE

SPH Decent Move

It was 3.92 when I posted it few posts back(click HERE). and now it's trading at 3.99, target is 4.08. Below is its real time chart at 09:36am:

SPH

Lottery Plays

Regular readers more or less should know my trading style and preferences by now, most of my trades are blue chips, short term( two days to few weeks). My impulsiveness control in trading are improving over the time. Nonetheless, there always a feeling of "trying luck" in my little heart... what I prefer to do is to set a small amount of capital( really small that I don't even bother at all if lose) to "try luck". The kind of stocks I call it "lottery play", old readers should know what I mean by lottery play-- they are typically cheap i.e less than 50c, relatively volatile, and often easily been "fired" up or down, thus high risk.

Sunvic and UMS are two of the them I missed.
2010Jul-SunVic-800x600

2010Jul-UMS-800x600

and, below are some of the lottery play candidates:

2010Jul-LIPPO-MAPLETREEINDORETAILTRUST-800x600

2010Jul-Valuetronics-800x600

2010Jul-SINO GRANDNESS FOOD IND GP LTD-800x600

2010Jul-Valuetronics-800x600