Revisiting an Important Target Level

Regular readers may still remember my post of STI target level, where I was looking STI resistance area at 2700~2750. This chart, for me, represents a point of pride and a point of shame:

- I am immensely pride that, so far,it has been working very accurate, it hit its highest level 2739.55( although it slightely below my upper range by 10.45 points), and did fall hard after that( it's about 100 points down from its peak now)

- I am immensely shamed of the fact that I did not exploit my own insight to change my bullish direction and take some shorts. This was an incomprehensible failure on my part that I live with everyday. I did not follow my plan, and ignored the warning of US dollar going to rebound that I mentioned in this post .

Now, in this business, taking a stand on anything is a thankless task. If you are right, people don't really remember, but if you're wrong, you are subjest to derision and mockery.

It's much safer to basically say things will either go up or down. So next time when you write about the market, carefully pull out the quotes and line up with reality and make yourself look like you nailed it.

one such "bold prediction" was posted here , implicitly(well, give myself a leeway) indicated it will go higher.

It didn't.

So what went wrong? As for STI, I paid too much attention to the move but not enough to the strength of the move. It's looks like this for STI( posted few post back)



The gradient from steep become flat now, indicates bulls are losing their strength. The first sign of down turn confirmation will be the trendline break drawn in the chart( trendline is always give early signal as compare to other indicators), a break down below it signals further retacement coming.

UP Down Volume

This will be my last post, not much concern the content but just the picture itself. red color is yesterday's, green color is today's.

(Click to enlarge) nice?

Long Candidate (2)

Dow is up 156 points right now. My calls SPY and BA and long position C are doing phenomenal. It has been for quite a while to see this kind of results.

As for Singapore stocks, many stocks showing bullish reversal patterns at support level:

refer to the post long candidates (1), here is (2) with support level:

PEC 64c
Falcon 75c
Pfood 67c
Uniasia 49c
Ezion 71c
OCBC 7.45
Hyflux 2.9
Rambar 60.5c
Ying li 73c
Bakertech 29c
Guocoleisure 60c
Mermaid 80c

Refer to cnx forum for chart if you could access it. Good night all.

Gradient Of STI

The velocity of STI chart is drawn below, I'm watching its upper channel as resistance.

Long Candidate (1)

STI jumped down on open to its support level 2600( low is 2605.1 till now), and individual stocks too open lower, many stocks trading at their support level now, the price in a very good bargain, especially the blue chips.

Below are long candidate stocks with support levels:

ST Engg: 2.82
Capitaland: 4.0
Ausgroup: 0.62
NOL: 1.59
Kepland: 2.74
Sembcorp: 3.32
Kepcorp: 8.0
FrasersCT: 1.18

Wathing The Bull Thang

The Expected rebounce of bulls didn't happen yesterday, I'm continue watching for those stocks on nice uptrend and retraced to their support levels,I felt that the sell-off going to take a break.

What i'm watching is the reversal candles at support level.

I'll post some candidates here in the day.

Long candidate

SIA


Baker TEch



SPH



IndoAgri



Ausgroup: 0.655 Resistance turn support



SuntecReit: more upside expected



Sembcorp: more upside expected



Jardine C&C 24.6 support

Looking For Rebound Today

US market closed mix last night, with dow rose and SPX down a little. As for Singapore market, I've seen many stocks is near or at their support level. We might have some cool long entry signals today ahead. Come back again today or I'll sms you( for client only)

Be Cautious To More Downside

Dow was down to its 20dma support level at around 9840, which is also its horizontal support level, watch out see if it can hold tonight. Next critical support level we shall watch out is 9650 which is its 50dma and trendline support.

Anyway, I'm cautiously to the upside as we are just beneath 50% fibnoacci retracement level at 10330 which is the major resistance level to watch out. It's about 490 point from current level.

(Click pic to enlarge)

Few Lottery Plays

If you are an old reader here, you should already knew what I mean by Lottery Plays--to trade stocks which are typically cheaper(most are less than 50c), high volatile and high risk. So be clear what you are doing when you trade this kind of stocks:

Some Thoughts

Since I switched my focus from US market to Singapore market, I have been doing intensively research on it-- over two hundreds of chart on daily basis and double it over the weekend. What I feel is Singapore is really boring as compare to US market on intraday basis. means to say it doesn't move that much, in fact I haven't seen a really rally yet--mainly is because the markes is in range trading for past two month or so. It's not a good market for intraday traders here. But on the other hand, I found out it's very cool to do short term position trading or swing trading here-- hold from few days to few weeks, give it some time let it run slowly and steadily, not so volatile and have a lower risk.

As for now, I'm still doing US market, but just focus on my watchlist for dozens of stocks. and continue dig singapore market, since asian market is much bullisher compare to US market(it can be tell from indices chart), the odd of up is higher, it does make sense to invest here. A good news i just received is that a new China ETF based on Sin Dollar will be launched soon, it called United FTSE/Xinhua china A50 ETF, consist of 50 top China A shares. I'm sure it will spark local investors.

Many people disappointed with the Oct rise as it was widely expected to go down, and it didn't. so nowadays people say Nov will be down since Oct it didn't. What kind of weird logic is that. I'm not really bother it, it might be up, and it might be down. Nobody knows until it happened. The fact is it's a nice uptrend market so far, and based on this, I will look for those stocks setup nicely to upside. If I'm wrong, I cut loss and get out; if i'm right, I make money out of it. I want to be in the market otherwise I will miss out the run. I want to risk small amount of money in order to have gain.

Weekly Update

US dollar is very weak now, quite close to its historical low. It's always inversely related to equity market, that means to say, if it goes up, stocks market will come down, if it come down, stock market will go up. Take a look at the Dollar Index UUP, it has been consolidated in a range for past five days, closed at 22.4 last week, quite close to its historical low 21.7. what it telling me is that dollar may have a strong rebound, not today or tomorrow but in coming weeks as it still has some room to its historical low.

As for US market,The trend is still a nice uptrend and have been sideway for the past week. I'm cautiously bullish. SPX( S&P 500)is quite close to its important resistance 1125.

As for Singapore market, Our STI is much bullisher as compare SPX. It has been trading in the range for the past five day, I'm cautiously bullish too. So my trading idea for the week will be buy at bounce for strong stocks.

Reits/property stocks still look quite bullish, I'll buy at support for a bounce off to the upside, stocks in my watchlist:

Suntecreits
yanlord
A reits
CDL trust
Macarthur
Ascottreit( 1.06 resistance)

I'll post some charts later. Have a nice week ahead!

Don't mess with children

One day a little girl was sitting and watching her mother do the dishes at the kitchen sink. She suddenly noticed that her mother had several strands of white hair sticking out in contrast on her brunette head. She looked at her mother and inquisitively asked, 'Why are some of your hairs white, Mom?' Her mother replied, 'Well, every time that you do something wrong and make me cry or unhappy, one of my hairs turns white.' The little girl thought about this revelation for a while and then said, 'Momma, how come ALL of grandma's hairs are white?'



The children were lined up in the cafeteria of a Catholic elementary school for lunch. At the head of the table was a large pile of apples. The nun made a note, and posted on the apple tray:
'Take only ONE . God is watching.' Moving further along the lunch line, at the other end of the table was a large pile of chocolate chip cookies. A child had written a note, 'Take all you want. God is watching the apples.'

Stocks In Focus For Friday

With US market triple digit blue-chip rally last night, the indices( $DJI,SPX,COMP)rebounded from their support level after 3 days sideway and 2 days retracement, and come back to near their recent high.

Here's local stocks that retraced to/rebounding from their support level:

Jardine C&C
UOL
A reits
Sembcorp
Sembmar,( pennant breakout)
Kepland
Capitaland
Capitamall
Hyflux
ST engg
SIA

Commodities stocks set for a rally too as pushed by weak dollar:

Olam
Indoagri
GoldenAgri
Noble

Nice Friday ahead!

Shorting Candidate

Ausgroup target: 66cents

Straits Times Index

STI dropped back below 2700, and closed at 2692 yesterday. When market didn't have the strengh to continue climb up higher, I'd better believe I am wrong to long and market is right. market is always right. STI left two days for the week, if it closed below 2700 this week, emm...then the resistance of 2700 is still valid.

The support levels I'm wacthing closely for this two days are 2,680 then 2,668. This are the levels that it could possible turn around.

The Market Fear Factor

VIX is a momentum indicator( click to see detail, as mentioned before in this blog) used to gauge the market sentiment, It can be interpreted in the simplistic way: it measures whether investors are optimistic or pessimistic, higher number indicates pessimistic and lower number indicates optimistic.

Let's take a look at VIX chart,it has dropped from as high as 96.4 to current level at around 20, which is the "normal" level before financial crisis. Charts can speak itself.

(click to enlarge pic)

Market Retraced

Market may retrace and test 2,700 support level, as for indivial stocks, for

1. short term trading: tighten up your stops
2. trend trading: watchout your major support level.

Below are the stops in my mind by now:

NOL: 1.69( stop loss for short term)
1.60 is the major support level

Ying Li: major support is at 81 cents

Kepland: 2.64 support

Market sliding Away

As Singapore's second biggest import and export partner, US economy is very closely watched over here in Singapore, I have the sense of it by looking at how Singapore market in relation/react to the US equity market.

Yesterday all major regional market including Shanghai, Hangseng and Japan market all went up a lot, but not Singapore. It went down a little bit in fact. why? nobody know what exactly it is so but not only one or two times, Singapore market is trying to go ahead of US market one step, not always but often. As a result, we often don't see a follow-through on the second day in local market, and if this happened, it ususally a good sign for market to rebound. Just like yesterday, local market no momentum to go up at all, and US market went down 50 points at night. let see how does STI go today.

What's On My Table Today

In my experiences, the most money that you can make out of the stock market is NOT you enter when market is hot-- that's what most people do, and as a result, they earn little or lose( because probably bought in highest price). In fact, professionals entered market quietly before market run, and they exit when market getting hot. Well, easy say than do. It's life.

I have fully untilised my asenal already. What's more for today? I can just think of a list of stocks right a way that I have nagged at in the past few posts. Here they are:

NOL
Citydev
OCBC
Hyflux
Ying Li
Ho bee
Swiber
Kepland
Amara
EZion
Ascendas Reit
Sembcorp

Long Candidates

Below Charts looks pretty bullish except one--Yanlord looks has yet make up its mind to the upside unless it break above its right shoulder down trendline.

Latest update

This is the latest update from me, before market open: market is not bearish yet, it may come down one day or two( include today), any retracement to support level will be a good long opportunity.

Have a good week ahead!

Trading Plan For The Week

Last two day of the week, STI hit a new high and came down, after scan through over two hundreds of charts, I'ver seen charts are still bullish. Since STI likely to come back retest its support,first level I'm watching is 2,700 which is previous resistance level, and if this level was broken, then 2,660 level would provide a good bargin to enter long positions. Market might leading to another high after this retracement.


Bluechips' moving will under my close attention:
Citydev
DBS
OCBC
UOB
Wilmar
Venture
Sembcorp
Sembmar
SGX

And Reits/property:
K-reits
Macarthurcook
CapitaRchina
Capitacomm
Kepland
Ying Li
FrasersCT

Captured and Missed

There are few remarkable stocks picks in this post, click HERE, and Sembmar turned to be my biggest contra win in the week,



and this one turned to be my biggest miss:



It's okay, Market never die. I'll do a post late tonight for the week ahead. seeya=)

Long Candidates

$INDU( symbol for "DOW") went up and stood above 10,000 points last night. This is a important psychological level, market obviously dominated by bulls. Bears screaming out accelerate the rise too. But I do expect some correction in coming days as market already ran up almost a straighline for 10 days. It needs a break.

All the Reits related counters looks strong to me, what's on my table for today:

Starhill: 0.62 resistance
FrasersCT: 1.18 sppt just broken
Boustead: major sppt 74.5cents
CapitaMall: 1.7 strong suppt

and other non-reits related:
Kepcorp: 8.4 major resistance, long if broke

Exit Strategy Explained

Dear reader Weiguo think EXIT more important than ENTRY. I think both ENTRY and EXIT are equally important, just like our left and right arms. Here I want to explained my EXIT strategy, since all along the way I've talked more on entry only. Thanks weiguo for bring this to my attention.

If you are a long-time reader of this blog, you probably already knew I'm a short term swing trader, my typical holding period is from two days to no more than two weeks. I'm talking about two sets of simple exit stratgies below:

1. Short term swing trading
a. Exit on next resistance ( often I use MA, Horizontal resistance, bearish reversal candle pattern, gap)

2. Longer time position trading(or trend trading)
a. Exit when trend change, simply use 20dma as a gauge, when it below 20dma, i'm looking for the immediate recent low, and place my exit point below the low. (this is for up trend, vice versa for downtrend)

Long Candidates

Some of the long positions I entered in the past few days already running up great. Geee!Thanks god.

My plan for today is to enter some late comers--stocks never move all together. and be ready to reap the profit. Below are the long candidates:

CityDev
Kepland
Ezion
Ying Li
SGX
kepcorp: enter after resistance 8.4
Singtel: 3.08 sppt
CapitaMall: nice uptrending!
Indoagri
Ausgroup
Capitacomm
Ocbc
K-reit
Boustead

STI Hit Yearly High

Goooood morning, Every one! It's reaping time. As we had STI crossed its 2,700, the most watchable resistance by market. I've seen the heavy blue chips are coming back on the stage now, after long-time waiting. It's all about patience, again.

(click to enlarge)

Gambling In Focus

Both counters are IR related. and it occurs to me they are promising to move higher.

(click picture to enlarge)

Hyflux

Filling Up its rising window today at 2.08~2.09, continue hold.

Long Candidates

As mentioned few posts back( click here): SPH, Olam and Hyflux and sembmar look good long candidates.

OCBC: long if close above 7.7 today



NOL: come back above its support.

Dow Jones

It looks Dow is still in a nice uptrending shape. The red tinted area in the picture below is our next target to aim, which is around 50% fibo at 10,300 thereabouts. watch out if it can get there.

(Click the picture to enlarge it.)

IR Related Stocks

Below are the stocks related to our forthcoming Integrated Resorts which I can think of now, please suggest the stocks which are not inside the list under "comment" section that interest you. the stocks including construction and travel sector.

OrchardP
Amara
CDL
Ho Bee
Koh Bro
LianBeng
Asiatravel
CDL Htrust

Stocks under my radar

Olam: long if break resistance 2.6

Hyflux: support 3.06 ascending triangle

sembmar: long 3.25

SPH: long if close above 3.9 today

Straitsasia

Recently was affected by its collapsed mine, now is at its major support level $2.It looks a good buying opportunity.

Attacking 2,700 Again

Ya, one more time.Bulls are come back breaking 2,700 resistance again.

And I'm looking at STI at the resistance area of 2700~2750.( click below image to enlarge)

Market Moving Up

A great week everyone!

It doesn't matter how many people think that Oct is going to be a bad month, or when market is going to have a correction, or is the correction going to be big? or anything alike...As for me, I don't want to waste my time dig on answers for these kind of questions. The fact is market is moving up, and what I want to be focusing is what are the stocks I'm going to buy to make money out of the move. Why I missed out the stocks that have moved double, three folds? How i'm not going to miss it again? that's all.

Market is moving higher, and here are the stocks caught my eyes:

Ascendasreit
Asiatravel
Ausgroup
Capitacomm
CDL Htrust
Chemoil
Hobee
Yingli
Indoagri
Venture

That's all for now.

It's Sandwich Time

I was expecting STI to go higher today but until now it's so quiet, open high but goes lower, sandwiching in between its trendline resistance and 20dma support, going nowhere. Market won't have a clear uptrend until it break above 2,700.

But take a look at weekly charts of the stocks I listed one post back, they are still sitting on top of their support with potential reversal candle( by potential I meant to say today is last day of the week and it has yet end). My bias is to upside but it looks fishy, so my strategy will be buy upside set up stocks but in smaller size. I will be in the market.

Below is the real time STI chart.(click on the image to view full picture)

Big Fishing Time

Morning guys, today is going to be a great fishing day, i'll just list down the stocks for your interest, All for LONG candidates, sorry I don't have enough time to post all the charts, do find out the stocks interest you and chart yourself:

Sembcorp
Bukitsem
OCBC
Kepland
ST Engg
Hiap Seng

Cheap stocks:
Techoil&gas
Tiongwoon
YZJ
Ying li
Capitacomm
mapletree

Lottery Play:
Ramba
Artivision
Aztech
FJBen
Hiap Hoe
RafflesEdu
Oceanus
SSH

US long Postion

I have shifted my focus to Singapore stock since I became a broker. I haven't had the chance to trade US stock options for quite number of days already,and here's my long/call positions for today:

It's All About Patience

I did post this counter SATSvcs on 23rd Sep, it was 2.2:




and it now turned to a star runner to the upside,this is today's price, 2.6 highest:



It's all about patience, friend.

The Star Lottery

Gosh...Tri-M, I posted one post back, it shot up rocket high in just one day. Supper lottery gain.