Fed Rates on Hold Amid Increased Uncertainty

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance  

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Mar 21, U.S. stocks were up slightly, recovering from correction territory, but remain down year to date. Most indexes snapping multi-week declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) performed best, advancing 1.2%, while the S&P 500(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) posted their first weekly gains after four-week consecutive declines. Large-cap tech stocks generally underperformed, weighing on the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which was the worst-performing index during the week. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed interest rate unchanged. The FOMC concluded its March meeting this week, maintaining its target range for the federal funds rate for the second consecutive meeting at 4.25%–4.5%, as expected. Fed officials also indicated that they expect 50 basis points (0.5 percentage points) of rate cuts this year, unchanged from a previous projection in December. 

2.    GDP growth lowered. The outlook for economic growth for this year was lowered to 1.7%, down from 2.1% in December. The FOMC raised its inflation expectations, with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), at 2.7% for 2025, up from 2.5% previously.1 These projections show that the Fed expects tariffs to slow economic growth and trigger a one-time adjustment in prices that leads to a short-term rise in inflation. 

3.    International stocks have generated the strongest returns among the major asset classes so far this year, led by developed-market large-cap stocks. Europe is benefiting from a multiyear plan to raise defence and infrastructure spending that could help spur growth, which has been stagnant in recent years. The potential for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire has also improved sentiment. Chinese stocks have risen on expectations for additional fiscal and monetary stimulus as the government seeks to boost consumption and head off deflation concerns. Refer to China/HK section below for more information. 

SPX sectors in play

Eight out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Energy(XLE) and Financials(XLF) outperformed, while Consumer Staples(XLP) lagged. It’s expected the health care( XLV) and financials(XLF) sectors could continue to perform well in the year ahead, particularly if the administration focuses on deregulation and tax policy in the coming months. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP indexes have recorded their first weekly gains after four weeks losing streak. The S&P 50(SPX) is now down 3.64% YTD. While the technology-heavy Nasdaq(COMP) is still in correction territory( down about 11.5% from its recent peak). Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets fell as investors turned cautious after two weeks of gains. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 1.60% while the blue chip CSI 300 fell 2.29%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 1.13%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China released a batch of better-than-expected indicators showing that the economy started the year on solid footing. Retail sales rose 4.0% in the January-February period from a year earlier, marking the quickest growth rate since November. Industrial output grew 5.9% year on year in the first two months of the year, slowing from December’s 6.2% expansion but still surpassing forecasts. Fixed asset investment—which includes property and infrastructure investment—increased 4.1% in the January-February period year on year, above expectations and December’s 3.2% pace. China’s statistics bureau combines data for January and February to smooth out distortions caused by the irregular timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. 

2.    Property development investment sank 9.8% in the first two months of 2025 year on year after falling 10.6% in December, according to the statistics bureau, indicating that China’s yearslong property slump has yet to bottom. The urban unemployment rate climbed to 5.4%, the highest level in two years, Reuters reported. 

3.    Several brokerages upgraded their gross domestic product forecasts for China following the data release, reflecting confidence that Beijing can meet its annual growth goals despite the risk of an escalating U.S. trade war. At the National People’s Congress meeting earlier in March, China pledged stronger fiscal and monetary support for the economy and stated that boosting consumption was the government’s top priority for 2025. It also set an economic growth target of about 5% for the third straight year.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 2.36% to close at 3926.45 for the week, fully recovered from its previous week’s spike down. The three local banks, YZJ Ship, Sembcorp Ind and ST Engineer. The index is about 20 points to its record level, uptrend is well intact.

This week’s top index gainer was YZJ Ship with 7.86% up. Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Stocks Continue Volatile Due to Tariff and Recession Worries

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Mar 14, U.S. stock indexes posted losses, with the S&P 500 Index(SPX), Nasdaq Composite(COMP), and Russell 2000 Index(RUT) all notching a fourth consecutive week of negative returns, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) slid 3.07%, putting all four indexes into negative territory for the year. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policy seemed to drive much of the negative sentiment as new tariff announcements from the Trump administration continued throughout the week. Growth concerns and increasing recession fears—which were amplified by comments from Donald Trump regarding a “period of transition” for the U.S. economy—also weighed on sentiment during the week.

The SPX briefly dipping into correction territory, down 10.5% from its recent highs. The COMP has dropped about 14% from peak-to-trough this year. This was the first 10%+ drawdown in the SPX since October 2023, nearly 1.5 years ago. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Despite the sharp pullback in U.S. stock markets, there have been areas of financial markets that have performed better – and are even up for the year: 1) Within U.S. equities, value and cyclical sectors have outperformed tech and AI stocks. 2) Bonds have outperformed stocks broadly this year thus far as investors looked for safety. 3)And many international stock markets, including Europe and China, have been up 8%-10%. 

2.    Inflation eases in February. Latest CPI data indicated that consumer prices rose 0.2% MoM in February, while core CPI saw its lowest YoY increase since Apr 2021, rising 3.1% over the prior 12 months. February’s readings for both monthly and annual inflation slowed from January, and both were slightly below consensus expectations. 

3.    FOMC next week. Thursday’s producer price index (PPI) data painted a similar picture for February, with headline prices unchanged from January and core prices declining for the first time since July compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase for both readings. Fed policymakers are widely expected to hold interest rates steady following their upcoming meeting on March 18–19. 

4.    Weak consumer confidence. The University of Michigan reported its Index of Consumer Sentiment for March on Friday morning, which declined 11% month over month to 57.9. The index has now declined three months in a row and is down 22% from December 2024. 

SPX sectors in play

Only two out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Defensive and cyclical sectors such as Utilities(XLU) and Energy(XLE) outperform technology(XLK) and growth sectors such as Consumer Discretionary(XLY) thus far. It’s expected the health care( XLV) and financials(XLF) sectors could continue to perform well in the year ahead, particularly if the administration focuses on deregulation and tax policy in the coming months. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

SPX sectors year-to-date return

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP indexes have recorded four weeks losing streak in a row. The S&P 50(SPX) is now down 4.13% for the year and SPX briefly down to correction territory (-10.5% from recent high) before it bounced on Friday, resulted -8.5% from recent high. While the technology-heavy Nasdaq(COMP) is down about 14% this week, into correction territory. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets rose on stimulus hopes after Beijing said it would hold a press conference on Monday with policymakers focusing on boosting consumption. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) gained 1.39% while the blue chip CSI 300 added 1.59%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index was down 1.12%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Officials from China’s finance ministry, commerce ministry, central bank, and financial markets watchdog are expected to appear at Monday’s briefing, which “will introduce the situation of boosting consumption,” according to the announcement from the State Council. News of the conference sparked a rally in Chinese shares on Friday, pushing the CSI 300 Index to its highest level since mid-December. 

2.    Increasing consumption to drive economic growth has become more important for China’s policymakers since the onset of the U.S.-sparked trade war. At the just-concluded National People’s Congress meeting, China set an ambitious economic growth target of about 5% for the third straight year and stated that boosting consumption is the government’s top priority for 2025. 

3.    Weak domestic consumption was underscored in China’s latest inflation report. The consumer price index fell a greater-than-expected 0.7% in February from a year ago, according to the statistics bureau, marking the first contraction since January 2024. The core CPI—which excludes food and energy costs—declined 0.1% year on year, its first decrease since 2021 and only the second time the gauge contracted in more than 15 years, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the producer price index, which tracks wholesale prices, fell 2.2% in February, its 29th straight monthly contraction. 

4.    Stamping out deflation is a matter of growing urgency for Beijing, which rolled out a slew of monetary and fiscal stimulus measures last September to spur demand. But a yearslong housing slump has prompted people to save rather than spend, frustrating officials’ attempts to bolster consumption.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) declined 2.0% to close at 3836.02 for the week -its five weeks low. The three local banks led the decline. Immediate technical support at 3805 and upside resistance at 3851 level.

This week’s top index gainer was JMH with 9.01% up, REITs were also among the top gainers as chances of U.S cutting more rates growing, which will benefit REITs. Sembcorp Ind was the top weekly loser, down 5.4%.

Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Stocks Sell Off Amid Trade Policy Uncertainty

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Mar 7, U.S. stock indexes declined during what ended as the worst week for some major indexes since early September. The S&P 500 Index(SPX), Nasdaq Composite(COMP), S&P MidCap 400 Index, and Russell 2000 Index all fell by over 3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) shed 2.37%, erasing most of its year-to-date gains.

Ongoing uncertainty around trade policy remained a focal point throughout the week as Tuesday marked the deadline for Donald Trump’s previously announced tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports along with an additional 10% on Chinese imports. The continued uncertainty and changing policies appeared to take a toll on investor sentiment during the week. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.   ISM manufacturing PMI reading reported in the week was 50.3%, down 0.6% from January. Meanwhile, the ISM’s services PMI increased 0.7% to 53.5%, the eighth consecutive month of expansion, and the services employment index increased 1.6 percentage points to 53.9%, the highest reading since December 2021. 

2.    Rate cut may be back in play. Fed Chair Powell indicated last week that the economy remains in decent shape, and even though consumer spending is moderating, and uncertainty remains elevated, he expects the Fed to remain patient on rates. However, markets have gone from pricing in no rate cuts to about three rate cuts in 2025. 

3.    Tariffs and policy uncertainty are an overhang. Trump again imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, only to postpone them for one month until April. Nonetheless, markets continued to fall, and sentiment did not seem bolstered by this postponement, as the threat of tariffs now looms large for April, across not only Canada and Mexico, but other economies like the European Union, which may be subject to reciprocal tariffs. Many economies, including Canada and the European Union, have vowed to implement retaliatory tariffs if the U.S. raises its tariff rates, which could lead to higher prices across goods and services for consumers and corporations. 

4.    The closely watched nonfarm payroll employment report on Friday showed U.S. economy added 151k jobs in February, slightly below expectation but ahead of January’s reading of 125k. The unemployment rate increased a tick to 4.1% from 4.0% in January. 

5.   Some investors move from U.S. equities to international equities, especially European and Chinese technology stocks. This comes as the economic growth in the U.S. cools, tariff and policy uncertainty rises, and investors seek better valuations and access to growth and value stocks abroad.

 

SPX sectors in play

Only one out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Defensive sectors, like health care and consumer staples, are leading, while the lagging sectors are those that have had the strongest momentum and rise in valuations, including technology (whose highest weights are in Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA) and consumer discretionary (whose highest weights are in Amazon and Tesla).  Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP indexes have recorded three weeks losing streak in a row. The S&P 50(SPX) is now down about 2% for the year, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq(COMP) is down about 6%. After two years of 20%+ returns in the SPX, though, some period of consolidation and pullback was probably warranted, and thus far markets are acting orderly. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets advanced for the week after Beijing unveiled economic growth targets in line with forecasts and signaled more stimulus later this year amid an escalating U.S. trade war. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) gained 1.56% while the blue chip CSI 300 added 1.39%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 5.94%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China unveiled several key targets at the recent National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting, an annual event in which the central government announces its economic priorities for the coming year. For 2025, China set a growth target of 5% for the third straight year. Officials also set a fiscal deficit goal of about 4% of gross domestic product—the highest level since 1994, according to Bloomberg—and reduced its annual inflation target to about 2%, the lowest level since 2003, reflecting deflationary pressures in the economy. 

2.    Most of China’s economic targets were telegraphed in advance of the NPC meeting and broadly in line with market expectations. However, many analysts think that China will have a harder time repeating its 5% growth pace this year given U.S. tariff uncertainty and a yearslong housing slump that has yet to hit bottom. 

3.    Increasing the fiscal deficit target to 4% this year was seen as a major change for China, which has long sought to cap the official deficit at no more than 3% of GDP. But the onset of the U.S.-sparked trade war has spurred expectations that the government will substantially ramp up borrowing and spending to meet its annual growth target. Boosting consumption is the government’s top priority for 2025, China’s Premier Li Qiang told delegates at the NPC. Even so, Beijing offered few details about how it plans to increase consumption in its annual work report, which serves as China’s economic blueprint for the year. 

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 0.48% to close at 3914.48 for the week, it has been trading within its three-week rangebound. Its uptrend remains intact.

This week’s top index gainer- ST engineering extended its weekly gain with 13.31% up and biggest loser was DFI with 4.07% decline.

Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Stocks Fall, Mag Techs Underperform

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Feb 28, most U.S. stock indexes declined for the second consecutive week, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) finished 0.95% higher, adding to its year-to-date outperformance versus the other major indexes. Growth stocks significantly underperformed, and the Nasdaq Composite(COMP) recorded its worst weekly drop since early September as tech stocks, particularly the so-called Magnificent Seven(Mag 7), declined amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty and concerns that the multiyear artificial intelligence-fueled rally could be losing steam (shares of NVIDIA fell 8.48% on Thursday following the chipmaker’s highly anticipated earnings report). Tariff fears also continued to be a drag on equities as Donald Trump reiterated plans to impose new levies on several trade partners by March 4.

Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week and monthly performance for Feb.

Monthly major indexes performance for the month of Feb.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Inflation weighs on consumer confidence. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data on Friday showed prices rising by 0.3% in January, largely in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 2.6%, in line with estimates and lower than the prior month of 2.8%, but still above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%. The report also noted that while personal incomes rose 0.9% in January, spending contracted, a sign that consumers may be exercising caution in the face of persistent inflation and uncertainty. 

2.    GDP growth in the Q4 of 2024 at annualized rate of 2.3%, in line with estimates. For full year, U.S GDP increased 2.8%. 

3.    Policy uncertainty. Trump said Canada and Mexico tariffs are on track to go into effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports. He also proposed new tariffs on the European Union and reiterated that reciprocal tariffs are set for April 2. The elevated trade-policy uncertainty is starting to weigh on sentiment, and, if it persists, may prompt businesses to defer or cancel investments, and prompt consumers to pull back on spending. 

4.    Corporate earnings. With about 95% of the S&P 500 companies having reported results, the Q4 earnings season is largely over. Profits grew 18% from a year ago, the highest quarterly earnings increase in three years. And full-year 2025 estimates are pointing to double-digit growth, which provides a buffer for equities against any moderate decline in valuations that may take place this year. 

SPX sectors in play

Seven out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Last week, the SPX briefly fell below last year's closing price, erasing the year-to-date gains, and dropping 4.5% from its all-time high reached on February 19. Over the past two years, the Magnificent 7 have driven more than 50% of the index's gains. However, this year, the group has shifted from a leader to a laggard, entering correction territory, while the broader index has remained rangebound over the past three months. Growth stocks significantly underperformed, and the Nasdaq Composite recorded its worst weekly drop since early September. Financials (XLF) and Health Care(XLV) sectors were among top performers while Technology( XLK) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP indexes recorded two-week decline streak, while DJI rebounded after from previous week’s decline. COMP closed new low since Nov 2024 led by the big techs. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets fell for the week after the U.S. ratcheted up measures targeting China’s economy. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) slid 1.72% while the blue chip CSI 300 declined 2.22%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index down 2.29%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Most of the week’s declines occurred on Friday, a day after President Trump announced an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports effective March 4, along with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The Trump administration previously imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese products that went into effect February 4. In response, China will “counter with all necessary measures to defend its legitimate rights and interests,” a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said. 

2.    The latest tariff threat came days after the Trump administration issued a memo instructing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) to curb Chinese spending on strategic sectors like technology and energy. The U.S. also plans to tighten restrictions on U.S. semiconductor technology exports to China and to lean on Japan and the Netherlands to step up their restrictions on China’s chip industry, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed officials. While the move to restrict U.S. tech exports to China appears to be a continuation of policies under the Biden administration, many analysts viewed the order to CFIUS—a committee that reviews proposed investments by foreign entities for national security threats—as further evidence of a decoupling between the world’s two largest economies. 

3.    Looking ahead, many investors are eyeing China’s Two Sessions, an annual political event in which Beijing unveils its economic priorities and targets for the coming year. China will likely maintain a gross domestic product growth target of “around 5%” for the third straight year, according to the Asia Society Policy Institute. Analysts also expect China to reveal a fiscal deficit ratio of 4% of GDP—a record high target—and a consumer inflation target of around 2%, down from the previous year’s 3%, reflecting deflationary pressures on the economy. The Two Sessions, which refer to the concurrent meetings of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress, begin March 4 and 5, respectively, and are expected to end on or around March 11.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) slid 0.87% to close at 3895.7 for the week, it hit record of 3951.64 level on Monday and traded lower for the rest of the week. The index recorded four-week winning streak before posting its first weekly loss, but its uptrend remains intact.

Weekly top index gainer was ST engineering with 6.29% up and biggest loser was YZJ Ship with 26% decline, due to the potential impact of proposed U.S tariff on China built ships.

Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.