Fed Rates on Hold Amid Increased Uncertainty

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance  

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Mar 21, U.S. stocks were up slightly, recovering from correction territory, but remain down year to date. Most indexes snapping multi-week declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) performed best, advancing 1.2%, while the S&P 500(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) posted their first weekly gains after four-week consecutive declines. Large-cap tech stocks generally underperformed, weighing on the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which was the worst-performing index during the week. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed interest rate unchanged. The FOMC concluded its March meeting this week, maintaining its target range for the federal funds rate for the second consecutive meeting at 4.25%–4.5%, as expected. Fed officials also indicated that they expect 50 basis points (0.5 percentage points) of rate cuts this year, unchanged from a previous projection in December. 

2.    GDP growth lowered. The outlook for economic growth for this year was lowered to 1.7%, down from 2.1% in December. The FOMC raised its inflation expectations, with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), at 2.7% for 2025, up from 2.5% previously.1 These projections show that the Fed expects tariffs to slow economic growth and trigger a one-time adjustment in prices that leads to a short-term rise in inflation. 

3.    International stocks have generated the strongest returns among the major asset classes so far this year, led by developed-market large-cap stocks. Europe is benefiting from a multiyear plan to raise defence and infrastructure spending that could help spur growth, which has been stagnant in recent years. The potential for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire has also improved sentiment. Chinese stocks have risen on expectations for additional fiscal and monetary stimulus as the government seeks to boost consumption and head off deflation concerns. Refer to China/HK section below for more information. 

SPX sectors in play

Eight out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Energy(XLE) and Financials(XLF) outperformed, while Consumer Staples(XLP) lagged. It’s expected the health care( XLV) and financials(XLF) sectors could continue to perform well in the year ahead, particularly if the administration focuses on deregulation and tax policy in the coming months. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP indexes have recorded their first weekly gains after four weeks losing streak. The S&P 50(SPX) is now down 3.64% YTD. While the technology-heavy Nasdaq(COMP) is still in correction territory( down about 11.5% from its recent peak). Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets fell as investors turned cautious after two weeks of gains. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 1.60% while the blue chip CSI 300 fell 2.29%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 1.13%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China released a batch of better-than-expected indicators showing that the economy started the year on solid footing. Retail sales rose 4.0% in the January-February period from a year earlier, marking the quickest growth rate since November. Industrial output grew 5.9% year on year in the first two months of the year, slowing from December’s 6.2% expansion but still surpassing forecasts. Fixed asset investment—which includes property and infrastructure investment—increased 4.1% in the January-February period year on year, above expectations and December’s 3.2% pace. China’s statistics bureau combines data for January and February to smooth out distortions caused by the irregular timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. 

2.    Property development investment sank 9.8% in the first two months of 2025 year on year after falling 10.6% in December, according to the statistics bureau, indicating that China’s yearslong property slump has yet to bottom. The urban unemployment rate climbed to 5.4%, the highest level in two years, Reuters reported. 

3.    Several brokerages upgraded their gross domestic product forecasts for China following the data release, reflecting confidence that Beijing can meet its annual growth goals despite the risk of an escalating U.S. trade war. At the National People’s Congress meeting earlier in March, China pledged stronger fiscal and monetary support for the economy and stated that boosting consumption was the government’s top priority for 2025. It also set an economic growth target of about 5% for the third straight year.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 2.36% to close at 3926.45 for the week, fully recovered from its previous week’s spike down. The three local banks, YZJ Ship, Sembcorp Ind and ST Engineer. The index is about 20 points to its record level, uptrend is well intact.

This week’s top index gainer was YZJ Ship with 7.86% up. Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.