For the week of Sep 4, global markets traded on two competing forces: a hotter-than-expected U.S. labour market and renewed Middle East supply risk. U.S. indices finished narrowly mixed as a strong August payrolls print lifted expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, while oil and Treasury yields climbed on U.S.–Iran hostilities. China’s mainland benchmarks slipped as momentum in AI-related shares faded, though Hong Kong reversed course with a sharp Friday rally. Singapore stood apart, with the Straits Times Index outperforming on broad strength in the banks.
(Refer to
the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)
πΊπΈ United States
Market Overview
Major U.S.
indices finished the week narrowly mixed. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added
0.40% and the S&P 500 (SPX) edged up 0.09%, while the Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJI) slipped 0.27%. Growth stocks outperformed value by the widest
margin in a month on Russell 1000 measures, with energy the standout sector as
oil prices rose on renewed Middle East tensions.
Index Weekly Performance
- Dow Jones
Industrial Average (DJI): -0.27%
- S&P
500 (SPX): +0.09%
- Nasdaq
Composite (COMP): +0.40%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ August Payrolls Blow Past
Expectations
The Labor
Department reported 162,000 jobs added in August, well above estimates near
55,000 and up sharply from July’s upwardly revised 21,000. June and July gains
were revised a combined 55,000 higher. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% while
the labour force participation rate rose to 61.6% from 61.4%.
2️⃣ Softer Signals Beneath the
Headline
Secondary
labour data was more mixed. July job openings totalled 7.27 million, up from
June’s 7.18 million but short of the 7.35 million consensus, while ADP recorded
just 38,000 private jobs added in August — the weakest monthly figure since
January. Initial claims for the week ended 29 August were 206,000, little
changed.
3️⃣ Wage Growth Cools to a
Five-Year Low
Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-on-year, below July’s 3.2% and the
softest reading since 2021, against a 2026 average near 3.5%. The firm reads
this as evidence of solid labour demand without wage-price pressure — an
important distinction for a Fed weighing whether to tighten.
4️⃣ Oil and Yields Climb on
U.S.–Iran Hostilities
The U.S. and
Iran exchanged strikes near the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in several
weeks, lifting oil sharply on Monday and Tuesday as supply-disruption concerns
resurfaced. The 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 4.82% intraday on
Wednesday before retracing, then resumed climbing after Friday’s jobs report.
5️⃣ ISM Surveys Expand but
Prices Stay Sticky
ISM
manufacturing eased to 54.6 from 55.6 — an eighth straight month of expansion,
but below the 55.4 consensus — while its prices index held at 71.1, a 23rd
consecutive month of rising raw materials costs. ISM services rose 1.3 points
to 55.4, with prices paid at a four-year high.
6️⃣ A Live FOMC, With
Expectations Still Anchored
The 16 September meeting is shaping up as a live one, with CME FedWatch odds near 60% for
a hike — which would be the first since July 2023. Governor Waller said he
would be inclined to hold if disinflation continues, a week after Chair Warsh
warned the Fed may have more work to do. Market-based inflation expectations
remain in the low-2% range.
S&P 500 Sectors in Focus
Energy was the
strongest S&P 500 sector on the week as crude rallied on Middle East supply
risk, and it remains the clear year-to-date leader among the sector ETFs.
Technology and utilities also finished higher, while health care edged up and
financials were unchanged, leaving the SPY tracker with only a marginal weekly
gain. Consumer discretionary was the weakest performer, with materials, real
estate and industrials also lower. The pattern — energy and technology up,
cyclicals and rate-sensitives down — is consistent with the week’s twin drivers
of higher oil and higher yields.
(Refer to
the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)
Technical Snapshot
The S&P 500
closed at 7,718.60 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,506.99, while the Dow ended
at 53,414.25 after shedding 145.74 points. Year to date the Nasdaq leads at
+14.05%, ahead of the S&P 500 at +12.75% and the Dow at +11.13%. With the
S&P 500 moving less than a tenth of a percent and the three benchmarks
finishing in opposite directions, the weekly charts for the past 4 weeks continue to show sideways
consolidation rather than trend — a range that Friday’s CPI print is the most
likely candidate to resolve.
π
Weekly charts:
π¨π³ China / Hong Kong
Market Overview
Chinese
equities diverged. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE)
declined 0.56% as momentum in AI-related shares faded, while the Hang Seng
Index (HSI) rose 0.26% in local currency terms after a sharp 1.74% rally on
Friday. Consumer staples, agriculture and media held up relatively better on
the mainland, while Hong Kong’s Friday advance was led by technology, consumer
and property names.
(Refer to
the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)
Index Weekly Performance
- CSI 300: -1.33%
- Shanghai
Composite (SSE): -0.56%
- Hang Seng
Index (HSI): +0.26%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ AI Momentum Fades on the
Mainland
A midweek rise
in oil prices and global bond yields amplified selling in semiconductors and
other AI-related growth shares, dragging the CSI 300 to a 1.33% loss. More
traditional areas of the market — consumer staples, agriculture and media —
held up relatively better, leaving the broader Shanghai Composite with a
narrower decline.
2️⃣ Hong Kong’s Friday Rally
Flips the Week
The Hang Seng
rallied 1.74% on Friday to finish the week in positive territory, led by
technology, consumer and property shares after Waller’s comments eased concerns
about a near-term U.S. rate increase. Mainland financials topped the
constituent table, with CM Bank, Bank of China and CCB all posting mid-to-high
single-digit weekly gains.
3️⃣ Beijing Tightens Property
Presale Rules
New rules
generally require a residential project’s main structure to be topped out
before presales begin, with mortgages on presold homes disbursed only after
completion is registered. Accompanying credit measures extend development-loan
maturities and raise the maximum personal housing loan term from 30 to 40
years.
4️⃣ Developers Sold Off, Then
Partly Recovered
Property
shares fell sharply when markets reopened on Monday as investors assessed the
implications for developer cash flows, with smaller developers among the
weakest performers. The sector recovered later in the week and joined Friday’s
rally, though CR Land, Longfor and Henderson Land still finished among the
index’s heaviest weekly decliners.
5️⃣ Official and Private PMIs
Diverge
Official
manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 from 49.2 but stayed below 50 for a second
month, with non-manufacturing at 49.0 — its weakest since December 2022. The
private RatingDog surveys were firmer: manufacturing 51.5, services 51.4,
composite 52.1. Maybank KE reads the firmer private data as supporting its
preference for overseas expanders such as BYD, and resilient leaders including
ICBC and China Construction Bank.
Technical Snapshot
The Hang Seng
closed at 25,650.87, up 0.26% on the week but only +0.08% year to date —
essentially flat since January. The Shanghai Composite ended at 3,930.12, down
22.06 points on the week and −0.98% year to date. Beneath the HSI’s flat
headline, breadth was unusually wide: mainland banks gained 7–9% while
Zhongsheng, Chow Tai Fook and Xinyi Solar each fell more than 10%, a dispersion
that argues for stock selection over index exposure.
(Refer to
the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)
π
Weekly charts:
πΈπ¬ Singapore
Market Overview
The Straits Times Index (STI) was the strongest of the major indices tracked this week, gaining 1.79%, or 102.02 points, to close at 5,801.96. That extends its year-to-date advance to 24.88%, well ahead of regional peers — Malaysia’s KLCI fell 1.03% over the same period. Gains were concentrated at the top of the constituent table, led by the banks and by property counters.
Index Weekly Performance
- Straits
Times Index (STI): +1.79%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ Banks Drive the Index Higher
OCBC (O39)
rose 3.86%, DBS (D05) 3.28% and UOB (U11) 3.02%, making the three lenders the
heaviest contributors to the STI’s weekly gain given their index weights. OCBC
extends its year-to-date lead at +63.31%, with DBS at +39.55% and UOB at
+19.82%.
2️⃣ Property and Conglomerates
Add Support
Hongkong Land
(H78) was the week’s best-performing constituent at +4.40%, followed by City
Developments (C09) at +3.12%. Sembcorp Industries (U96) gained 1.66%, YZJ
Shipbuilding (BS6) 0.82% and Keppel (BN4) 0.70%. Both HK Land and CityDev
remain in positive territory year to date.
3️⃣ Consumer, Aviation and
Services Lag
SATS (S58) was
the weakest constituent at −3.24%, with ThaiBev (Y92) at −3.23%, SIA (C6L) at
−1.89% and Genting Singapore (G13) at −1.59%. ST Engineering (S63) fell 1.50%
and Venture Corp (V03) 1.47%, though both retain double-digit year-to-date
gains.
4️⃣ S-REITs Broadly Weaker
Mapletree Pan
Asia Commercial Trust (N2IU) fell 3.15% and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U)
2.06%, with Frasers L&C (BUOU), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial (C38U),
Frasers Centrepoint (J69U), Mapletree Logistics (M44U) and Keppel DC REIT
(AJBU) all lower. Mapletree Industrial Trust (ME8U) was the sole S-REIT gainer
at +0.52%.
Technical Snapshot
The STI closed
at 5,801.96, its 102-point advance the largest in absolute terms among the
seven benchmarks tracked this week. At +24.88% year to date it is comfortably
the strongest performer in the table. Breadth was narrower than the headline
suggests — 11 of 30 constituents advanced against 17 decliners and two
unchanged — indicating the move was carried by the index’s heaviest weights
rather than by the broad market.
(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)
π
Week Ahead (7–11 Sep 2026)
U.S. markets
are closed on Monday 7 Sep for Labor Day, which should thin early-week
activity. August PPI lands on Thursday 10 Sep, followed by the August CPI
report on Friday 11 Sep — the final inflation print before the FOMC decision on
Wednesday 16 Sep, with consensus at 3.4% headline and 2.4% core. The University
of Michigan preliminary sentiment index also arrives on Friday.
China’s August
CPI is due on Wednesday 9 Sep, following July’s +0.5% year-on-year reading.
With the official and private PMI surveys pointing in different directions, the
print will test whether domestic demand is genuinely firming. August trade and
credit aggregates follow later in the month.
Singapore’s
domestic docket is light, with August NODX not due until mid-month. Regional
direction is therefore likely to be set externally — by China’s CPI midweek and
the U.S. inflation print on Friday. The ECB rate decision on Thursday 10 Sep
adds a further cross-asset variable.
π️ Overarching Watchpoint
Friday’s U.S.
August CPI is the single binary risk of the week. With CME FedWatch odds near
60% for a hike on 16 September, an in-line or cooler print would validate
Waller’s case for holding and relieve pressure on rate-sensitive equities in
the U.S. and Hong Kong alike. A reacceleration would move a first hike since
July 2023 close to a done deal — and oil’s renewed Middle East premium makes
that outcome more plausible than it looked a month ago.
Source: Some
content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.
