Yields Steal the Spotlight: Equities Take a Breather

For the week of Aug 21, global equities lost ground as a sharp climb in long-term U.S. Treasury yields — with the 30-year reaching its highest level since 2007 — soured risk appetite and pressured technology and AI-related shares. In the U.S., the major benchmarks retreated even as August business activity accelerated and corporate earnings stayed resilient. Chinese markets diverged, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng surging on a health-care rally while mainland gauges slipped on a broad July activity slowdown. In Singapore, the Straits Times Index eased as outsized losses in a few heavyweights outweighed gains among property and offshore-marine names.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished lower across the board as elevated Treasury yields, renewed U.S.–Iran tensions, higher oil prices, and weakness in semiconductor and AI-related shares weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led the retreat, dropping 2.05%, followed by the S&P 500 (SPX) at -1.43%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) held up best, easing 0.85%. Mixed retail earnings reports added to a cautious tone that persisted even as data pointed to accelerating business activity.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.85%

- S&P 500 (SPX): -1.43%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): -2.05%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Treasury Yields Climb to Multi-Year Highs

Long-term Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007. Concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and heavy government and corporate debt issuance — including financing tied to AI capital spending — drove the sell-off, while higher oil prices amid renewed U.S.–Iran tensions added to inflation worries.

2️⃣ Treasury Buyback Offers Only Fleeting Relief

Treasuries briefly rallied after the Treasury Department said it would at least double its planned long-term debt buybacks from September, lifting purchases to at least $4 billion per operation. The 30-year yield posted its largest daily decline in over a year, but much of the move reversed as investors questioned whether the program could offset broader pressures. Edward Jones expects the 10-year yield to trade between 4.5% and 5.0% for the rest of the year.

3️⃣ Fed Minutes Underscore Inflation Uncertainty

Minutes from the Fed's July meeting showed participants generally expected inflation to moderate through year-end, but described their outlooks as "highly uncertain" with risks skewed to the upside. Officials noted that further policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation failed to decline, reinforcing a cautious tone on the rate path.

4️⃣ Business Activity Accelerates Sharply

The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI jumped to 56.0 in August from 54.5, its highest reading since April 2022, led by strength in services. Employment rose at its fastest pace since January 2025, while the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauges both beat estimates and hit their highest levels since 2021.

5️⃣ Corporate Earnings Growth Stays Robust

Per Edward Jones, S&P 500 second-quarter earnings are on pace to grow more than 48% year over year, with full-year 2026 earnings tracking a 31% gain. Strength extended beyond mega-cap technology, with small- and mid-cap earnings also expected to rise more than 20%, underpinning a constructive medium-term equity backdrop.

6️⃣ Housing Stays Soft as Rates Bite

Housing data remained weak: pending home sales fell 2.3% in July to their lowest since January, and housing starts dropped more than 12%. The NAHB homebuilder index edged up but stayed subdued, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.65%. Edward Jones continues to favor equities over fixed income, preferring U.S. large- and mid-cap and emerging-market stocks.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector performance was sharply divided, reflecting a rotation away from growth. Health Care led decisively, while Energy and Materials also finished higher as oil firmed and value-oriented pockets found support. At the other end, Technology was the weakest sector amid the pullback in semiconductor and AI-related names, with Utilities and Industrials also lagging as higher yields pressured rate-sensitive and capital-intensive groups. The wide dispersion underscored how the surge in long-term yields reshaped leadership beneath the index surface. 

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) pulled back from record territory, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq bearing the brunt of the AI-led selling while the Dow Jones (DJI) proved more resilient given its lighter growth weighting. Momentum cooled after August's run to fresh highs, leaving near-term direction closely tied to the path of Treasury yields. On the charts, the major indices appear to be entering a phase of sideways consolidation just below their recent peaks, digesting the rate-driven pullback rather than signaling a decisive trend reversal. Watch SPX pullback to where it was break-out previously, see wether it can hold at resistance-turn-support 7610-7630 area.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weekly chart

- SPX weekly chart

- Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities diverged sharply, with Hong Kong sharply outpacing the mainland. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) jumped 3.55%, powered by a strong rally in health-care and pharmaceutical names, while the Shanghai Composite (SSE) slipped 0.56% and the CSI 300 fell 1.01% as a broad July activity slowdown and a pullback in semiconductor and robotics shares weighed on the mainland. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -1.01%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.56%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +3.55%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Hong Kong Diverges on Health-Care Rally

The Hang Seng Index surged 3.55%, driven by a broad advance in health-care and biotech names including Sino Biopharm, WuXi Bio, Innovent and BeOne Medicines. The rotation into Hong Kong-listed large caps lifted the benchmark even as mainland indices lagged, marking a clear divergence in regional sentiment for the week.

2️⃣ July Activity Data Disappoint Broadly

China's July data softened across the board: industrial output grew 4.5% year over year (down from 5.3%), retail sales rose just 0.6%, and fixed-asset investment contracted 6.7% for the first seven months. Maybank KE likewise flagged the softening momentum, strengthening the case for further fiscal and monetary support.

3️⃣ Property Slump Persists as Policy Support Expands

Real estate investment shrank 19.2% year over year through July, while new home prices dipped 0.1% month on month. Authorities rolled out fresh support: from September 20, residents may withdraw Housing Provident Fund savings for more purposes, and Shanghai further eased down-payment requirements for second-home purchases beyond the outer ring.

4️⃣ Embodied-AI Fervor Grips the IPO Market

Humanoid-robot maker Unitree Robotics closed 460% higher on its Shanghai debut, having earlier spiked over 600%, with the offering more than 8,000 times oversubscribed. The listing — following memory-chipmaker CXMT's blockbuster July IPO — highlighted intense appetite for "embodied AI," even as chip and robotics stocks pulled back globally during the week.

5️⃣ Maybank KE Favors Structural-Priority Names

Maybank KE prefers companies aligned with China's structural priorities: Shanghai Biren for domestic AI-computing exposure, Sunny Optical for its "Optics + AI" strategy and smartphone premiumisation, Kuaishou for AI-driven monetisation despite mixed 2Q26 results, and Galaxy Entertainment for a Macau recovery ahead of National Day Golden Week.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) broke sharply higher, back to its 2-month high, powered by health-care leadership and a rotation into Hong Kong-listed large caps, extending its recovery even as mainland benchmarks stalled. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) and CSI 300 stayed rangebound-to-soft, pressured by weak macro data and profit-taking in chip and robotics names. Near-term, the HSI's momentum looks constructive provided policy support follows through, though mainland gauges may remain capped until activity data stabilise.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weekly chart

- HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) eased 0.95% for the week, pulling back from near record levels. Declines were concentrated in a handful of heavyweights — most notably SATS, alongside the local banks UOB and OCBC and industrial name ST Engineering — while property and offshore-marine counters such as Sembcorp Industries, UOL and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding advanced. The benchmark nonetheless held on to a year-to-date gain of 22.44%. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): -0.95%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Eases from Elevated Levels

The Straits Times Index slipped 0.95% over the week, with decliners outnumbering gainers among the index heavyweights. Despite the pullback, the benchmark retained a robust year-to-date gain of 22.44%, keeping it among the region's stronger performers in 2026.

2️⃣ SATS Leads Decliners with a Steep Drop

SATS was by far the week's weakest STI constituent, tumbling 13.22% and dwarfing every other index move. Even after the sharp decline, the ground-handling and in-flight-catering group remained modestly positive year-to-date at +6.82%.

3️⃣ Banks Diverge as UOB and OCBC Retreat

The local lenders traded unevenly: UOB fell 3.04% and OCBC declined 2.55%, while DBS bucked the trend with a 0.62% gain. Year-to-date, the trio stayed firmly higher, led by OCBC at +56.78%, DBS at +34.85% and UOB at +15.60%.

Singapore Spotlight — UltraGreen.ai (ULG)

The week's standout SGX move came from outside the STI. Fluorescence-guided-surgery play UltraGreen.ai (ULG) collapsed roughly 49% after Zydus secured 180-day FDA competitive-generic exclusivity for a generic indocyanine green (ICG) dye on 4 August, with Provepharm's Zyogreen also advancing toward the U.S. market. DBS downgraded the stock to HOLD from BUY and cut its 12-month target to USD0.80 (from USD1.95), noting the shares now discount its "Bear 1" scenario of a 20% ASP decline and 5% volume decline. Not all houses are as cautious — some argue new entrants need years to build supply and hospital/GPO relationships, leaving UltraGreen's long-established regulatory dossier and imaging platform as a durable moat. The split view keeps the stock an overhang until competitor pricing and commercial traction become clearer.

Technical Snapshot

The Straits Times Index (STI) pulled back after trading near multi-year highs, with the retreat driven largely by outsized losses in a few heavyweights rather than broad-based selling. Breadth was mixed, as gains in property and offshore-marine counters offset weakness in the banks and SATS. Near-term, the index's elevated year-to-date position leaves it sensitive to profit-taking, though the broader uptrend remains intact absent a wider risk-off shift.

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weekly chart

🌐 Beyond Equities — Cross-Asset Watch

The same rates catalyst that pressured equities rippled across other assets this week, with gold the standout beneficiary.

- Gold: Spot hit a three-month high near US$4,540–4,600/oz on Friday, up ~4–5% on the week — a third straight weekly gain.

- WTI Crude: Held above US$85/bbl as renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk kept energy prices bid.

- US Dollar: Softened broadly, with the Treasury's buyback-driven liquidity signal weighing on the greenback.

- Treasury Yields: The 30-year spiked to ~5.34%, its highest since 2007, before the buyback expansion pulled the long end back.

Gold in Focus

The rally's fuel has shifted from the earlier Singapore/Hong Kong gold-hub and PBOC-buying narrative to U.S. rates plumbing. The Treasury's move to double long-dated buybacks — with Secretary Bessent signalling further support if needed — pushed yields and the dollar lower and reignited bullion. A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for non-USD buyers, lifting the whole precious-metals complex. Singapore investors can track the move via GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) and its SGX-listed lines O87 (US$) and GSD (S$), or COMEX futures (/GC), with the December contract trading around US$4,620.

 

📌 Analyst Calls This Week

Notable rating, target-price and house-view changes across the coverage universe:

- DBS — UltraGreen.ai (ULG): Downgrade to HOLD from BUY; 12-month TP cut to USD0.80 from USD1.95 on rising generic-competition risk to ASPs.

- Maybank KE — China structural plays: Reiterates preference for Shanghai Biren, Sunny Optical, Kuaishou and Galaxy Entertainment as beneficiaries of China's policy priorities.

 

📅 Week Ahead (24–28 Aug 2026)

The U.S. calendar is unusually heavy. Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 results after the close on Aug 26 — a key barometer for the AI complex following the week's semiconductor weakness — alongside the July PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The Jackson Hole symposium (Aug 27–29) then takes center stage, headlined by Chair Kevin Warsh's first keynote as Fed chief.

In China, markets will look for fresh policy signals after the soft July activity and property data, with industrial-profits figures also due. Sentiment in Hong Kong will hinge on whether the health-care-led rally can broaden, while momentum in "embodied-AI" and technology IPOs remains a focal point.

Locally, investors will monitor Singapore's July inflation and industrial-production prints for a read on the domestic economy. Regional markets will otherwise take their cue from Jackson Hole and the Nvidia print, both of which could set the tone for Asian risk appetite into month-end.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk is Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole debut. With long-term yields at multi-year highs and the July FOMC minutes flagging upside inflation risks, any hawkish or dovish tilt in his address on the rate path could drive an outsized move across equities, rates and currencies heading into September's policy meeting.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Cooling Inflation, Patient Fed: Global Markets Diverge

For the week of Aug 14, a lighter data calendar and a fresh batch of cooling inflation prints set a constructive tone for global equities, even as regional performance sharply diverged. In the U.S., softer July CPI and PPI readings eased fears of renewed price pressure and trimmed bets on a September Fed hike, helping the S&P 500 grind to fresh record highs. China and Hong Kong slipped, dragged by internet heavyweights and a tax-driven sell-off in insurers despite pockets of strength in optical and property names. Singapore bucked the regional softness, with the Straits Times Index nudging to a new high on gains in shipbuilders and industrials.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished mixed as cooling inflation and easing Fed-hike expectations were offset by softer consumer data and rising oil prices. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 0.36% to a fresh record while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) was little changed at +0.14%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged, slipping 0.56%. Small- and mid-caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 each gaining over 1%.

Index Weekly Performance

– Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.56%

– S&P 500 (SPX): +0.36%

– Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.14%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ July Inflation Resumes Its Downward Trend

Headline CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% year over year, down from June's 3.5%, while core CPI eased to 2.5% from 2.6% — both in line with estimates. Cooler-than-expected producer prices followed, with headline PPI slowing to 4.7% from 5.5%, reinforcing the disinflation narrative and easing fears that price pressures were broadening.

2️⃣ September Rate-Hike Odds Fade

The softer prints pushed futures-implied odds of a September Fed hike to roughly 32% by Friday, down from about 52% earlier in the week, per CME FedWatch. With the next meeting not until mid-September, patience — favoured by nine of twelve voters in July — looks likely to prevail again.

3️⃣ Consumer Data Disappoints

Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the sharpest monthly drop since May 2025, while the University of Michigan's preliminary August sentiment reading slid 4.2 points to 51. The soft data tempered risk appetite but also eased near-term pressure on the Fed to tighten.

4️⃣ Treasury Yields Diverge

Shorter-term yields fell as hike bets receded, while long-end yields stayed elevated on heavy supply and fiscal concerns. The 10-year note auction cleared at its highest yield since 2007 and the 30-year at its highest since 2001, underscoring persistent term-premium pressure.

5️⃣ Earnings and Momentum Still Supportive

Edward Jones notes 2026 S&P 500 earnings-growth estimates now exceed 30%, with broad-based upward revisions and every sector expected to post positive growth. Coupled with Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q3 near 4%, the fundamental backdrop remains a source of strength for equities.

6️⃣ Volatility Near 2026 Lows

The CBOE Volatility Index revisited its 2026 lows during the quieter week, reflecting calmer positioning even amid Middle East diplomacy headlines. Edward Jones favours diversification with an opportunistic lean toward equities rather than betting on any single inflation outcome.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector breadth was broadly positive, led decisively by Energy as firmer oil prices lifted the group well clear of the pack. Defensive and rate-sensitive corners — Utilities, Communication Services, Consumer Staples and Technology — also advanced, while Financials, Industrials and Real Estate posted modest gains. Materials slipped and Consumer Discretionary was the clear laggard, weighed by the week's softer consumer data.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX printed fresh all-time highs, extending its uptrend as breadth improved into small- and mid-caps. The Nasdaq held near previous record territory but stalled, while the DJI slipped and underperformed the broader tape. All three indexes remain in constructive uptrends near their highs.

📊 Weekly charts:

– DJI weekly chart

– SPX weekly chart

– Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were choppy and ended lower, with Hong Kong underperforming. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) edged down 0.33% and the CSI 300 fell 0.61% in local-currency terms, as early strength in consumer and property names faded on losses in precious-metals stocks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 2.15%, weighed by internet heavyweights and mixed corporate earnings.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– CSI 300: -0.61%

– Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.33%

– Hang Seng Index (HSI): -2.15%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ China Inflation Cools to Multi-Month Lows

CPI rose just 0.5% year over year in July, a six-month low and down from 1% in June, as the oil-price shock from the U.S.–Iran war faded and food prices softened; core CPI eased to 0.9%. PPI growth slowed to 3.5% from 4.1%, its first moderation since producer inflation turned positive earlier this year.

2️⃣ Insurers Sell Off on Offshore Tax Crackdown

Stricter enforcement of taxes on offshore insurance income triggered a sell-off in Hong Kong financials, hitting insurers hardest. Maybank KE calls the reaction overdone, staying positive on AIA — viewed as oversold — and constructive on China Life on prospects for capital rotating back onshore.

3️⃣ Tencent Kicks Off a Mixed Earnings Season

Tencent opened China's reporting season with solid growth across gaming, advertising and cloud, though sentiment was tempered by rising capex. With results now flowing, earnings are likely to set fresh direction; Maybank KE also flags MiniMax as attractive on potential index-inclusion catalysts.

4️⃣ Beijing Eases Homebuying Curbs

Authorities relaxed purchase rules for nonresidents within the Fifth Ring Road, cutting the required contribution period to one year from two and lifting provident-fund loan limits. The measures echo earlier Shanghai easing and lifted property developers, offering modest support to sentiment.

5️⃣ Hang Seng Tech Index Set to Expand

Hang Seng Indexes plans to grow the tech gauge from 30 to 50 constituents, adding AI and robotics names and selecting ten by sales growth rather than market cap. Final revisions are targeted for end-September, with implementation at the December 2026 rebalancing.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI broke lower, sliding 2.15% to close near 25,117 as internet leaders led declines. Momentum has cooled after recent strength, with the index now testing support after failing to hold higher levels. A sustained recovery hinges on stabilisation in tech heavyweights and clearer signals from the earnings season.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– SSE weekly chart

– HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) outperformed the region, rising 0.79% to a fresh high near 5,744 as gains in shipbuilders, industrials and OCBC outweighed weakness in aviation and offshore names. Breadth was mixed, with sharp single-stock moves in both directions across the blue chips.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– Straits Times Index (STI): +0.79%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Shipbuilders and Industrials Lead

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding jumped 10.0% and Hongkong Land added 8.8%, while ST Engineering rose 6.2% and Genting Singapore gained 7.3%. The index's advance was powered by cyclical and industrial names even as several REITs and offshore counters lagged.

2️⃣ OCBC Powers the Banks' Divergence

OCBC surged 4.9% and now leads the local banks at +60.9% year to date, while DBS and UOB slipped 1.1% and 3.5% respectively. The split left the STI's heavyweight banking trio mixed, with OCBC doing the heavy lifting this week.

3️⃣ Aviation and Offshore Under Pressure

Singapore Airlines was the weakest blue chip, falling 7.2%, with UOL down 5.4% and Wilmar off 4.8%. Rising oil prices and profit-taking weighed on transport, property and agri-commodity names after their recent strength.

4️⃣ STI Extends Its Record Run

The 0.79% gain lifted the STI to a new closing high and a 23.6% year-to-date advance, cementing its status as a regional outperformer. Resilient index heavyweights and steady domestic sentiment continue to underpin the benchmark.

Technical Snapshot

The STI pushed to a fresh record near 5,744, extending its multi-month uptrend on broad blue-chip support. Momentum stays constructive despite pockets of single-stock weakness, keeping the trend firmly higher. A close above current levels would reinforce the breakout, with pullbacks likely viewed as buying opportunities.

(Refer to the STI Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (17–21 August 2026)

In the U.S., attention turns to the minutes of the July FOMC meeting for detail on how divided policymakers were over the inflation outlook, alongside flash S&P Global PMIs and housing data. With the next rate decision set for mid-September, any hawkish nuance could quickly reprice September expectations.

In China and Hong Kong, the earnings season accelerates, with a heavy slate of internet, insurance and property results likely to drive index direction. Loan prime rate fixings and further property-easing signals from major cities also remain in focus after Beijing's latest measures.

In Singapore and the region, the STI's record run faces a test from regional macro data and the tail of local earnings, with trade figures and currency moves in view. Bank-sector momentum after OCBC's outperformance will be watched closely.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint — The July FOMC minutes are the week's key binary: confirmation of a patient, data-dependent stance would sustain the disinflation-driven rally, while any hawkish surprise could unwind it — with the Jackson Hole symposium (Aug 27–29) looming as the larger catalyst just beyond.

 

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Headwinds Ease: Wall Street Breaks Out to Records

For the week of Aug 07, global equities advanced as easing worries over AI spending, softer oil prices and receding fears of further Fed tightening let fundamentals reassert themselves. In the U.S., major benchmarks broke out of their summer range to fresh record highs, powered by strong big-tech earnings and a softer July jobs report that trimmed rate-hike bets. China's mainland indices advanced on renewed technology and semiconductor strength, while Hong Kong slipped as a new tax on offshore insurance income weighed on financials. Singapore's Straits Times Index edged to new highs, led by industrials and its banks. Singapore market closes on Monday Aug 9 for National Day holiday, wil resume trading on Tuesday.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities broke decisively higher, with the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) surging 5.19% for its best week since April, the S&P 500 (SPX) climbing 3.58% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) adding 2.96%. All three closed at or near fresh record highs as favourable corporate earnings, renewed AI enthusiasm and hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lifted sentiment. Falling oil prices and softer labour data drove Treasury yields lower, reinforcing the risk-on tone.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +2.96%

-  S&P 500 (SPX): +3.58%

-  Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +5.19%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Indices Break Out to Fresh Record Highs

After three months rangebound, U.S. stocks broke to new highs as three headwinds — doubts over AI spending, energy-driven inflation risk and Fed-tightening fears — eased in unison. With those overhangs lifting, earnings and economic fundamentals reasserted themselves as the primary drivers of prices, per Edward Jones.

2️⃣ AI Earnings Renew Confidence in the Cycle

Large technology firms reported accelerating cloud growth, rising AI demand and expanding backlogs. Microsoft added roughly USD 450bn in market value after results — the largest single-day market-cap gain on record — while Meta slipped as investors questioned whether heavy capex would translate into returns. The AI story is maturing, not breaking, Edward Jones noted.

3️⃣ Earnings Strength Broadens Beyond Mega-Cap Tech

With over 85% of the S&P 500 reported, Q2 earnings growth is tracking near 48% — roughly 29% excluding investment-related gains at Alphabet and Amazon. Six of the remaining nine sectors delivered double-digit growth, pointing to a healthier, broader foundation for the advance, according to Edward Jones.

4️⃣ July Jobs Miss Recalibrates Fed Expectations

Employers shed 23,000 jobs in July versus expectations for an 80,000 gain, with prior months revised sharply lower and the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% on lower participation. Stocks rallied on the “bad-news-is-good-news” read: odds of a September rate hike fell to about 42% from roughly 55%.

5️⃣ Manufacturing Accelerates as Oil Retreats

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, its highest since May 2022, as new orders and production strengthened and hiring turned positive. WTI crude retraced much of last month's spike on hopes of Strait of Hormuz de-escalation, easing energy-inflation concerns even as talks remained fluid.

6️⃣ Treasuries Rally, Yields Ease

Softer labour data and lower oil pushed Treasury yields down across maturities, with the 10-year note falling to roughly 4.64% from 4.74% a week earlier. Lower yields provided an additional tailwind for equities, particularly rate-sensitive growth names.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Technology led the tape by a wide margin as the AI-driven rally reasserted itself, with Materials also outperforming on the improving industrial backdrop. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Communication Services likewise finished firmly higher. Energy was the clear laggard, dragged by the sharp retreat in oil prices, while Utilities and Real Estate also lagged as the week's risk-on rotation favoured cyclical and growth exposure.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The major indices cleared the upper boundary of their multi-month trading range, with the Nasdaq within arm's reach to its all-time high of 27190 and the SPX and DJI both confirming new-high territory. Breadth improved as leadership rotated back toward growth. On the charts, SPX, the Nasdaq Composite and the DJI have all resolved their prior sideways consolidation to the upside, establishing higher trading bands as price discovery extends into fresh-high territory.

📊 Weekly charts: 

DJI weekly chart  

SPXweekly chart  

Nasdaq weekly chart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China's markets diverged sharply. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 2.81% and the CSI 300 gained 2.32% as technology and semiconductor shares rallied, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell 0.84% in local-currency terms, dragged by financials. News that mainland tax authorities would levy taxes on offshore insurance policies weighed on Hong Kong-listed insurers and banks.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

-  CSI 300: +2.32%

-  Shanghai Composite (SSE): +2.81%

-  Hang Seng Index (HSI): -0.84%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Mainland–Hong Kong Divergence Widens

Renewed strength in technology and semiconductor names lifted mainland benchmarks to solid weekly gains, even as the Hang Seng slipped. The split reflected diverging drivers: an AI- and tech-led bid onshore versus financials-led weakness in Hong Kong, per T. Rowe Price.

2️⃣ Offshore Insurance Tax Hits HK Financials

Tax authorities in Beijing and Hangzhou began applying a 20% levy on income from mainland residents' overseas insurance policies, including dividend and interest returns. The move — seen as part of tighter scrutiny of cross-border flows — sent Hong Kong-listed insurers and financials sharply lower, with heavyweight AIA among the biggest constituent decliners.

3️⃣ Macro Data Mixed as Trade Frictions Resurface

The RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased to 50.9 and services to 50.4, their softest in months, echoing the official survey's slip into contraction. Yet exports rose 23.9% YoY on resilient AI-electronics demand, even as fresh U.S.–China curbs — new import bans, blacklistings and Beijing's retaliatory controls — clouded the trade outlook.

4️⃣ Policy Support and Southbound Flows

Maybank KE's Dim Sum Weekly flagged the July Politburo's tilt toward targeted support and its “Six Networks” push to strengthen AI, data-centre and digital infrastructure, while Hong Kong signalled an upgrade to its 2026 growth forecast after 1H GDP rose 5.1% YoY. Southbound investors were net buyers of Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi, and net sellers of Meituan and China Construction Bank.

5️⃣ Maybank KE House Views

Maybank KE maintains BUY on China Telecom (728 HK, TP HKD 6.00) on next-gen infrastructure and a ~6.4% FY26e yield; Hong Kong Land (HKL SP, TP USD 9.30) on capital recycling and an office-leasing recovery; XPeng (9868 HK, TP HKD 80.00) on overseas expansion and AI optionality; and Yum China (9987 HK, TP HKD 479.00) on store growth and efficiency gains.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng slipped back below recent resistance to around 25,668, underperforming firmer mainland benchmarks as financials led the pullback. Despite the weekly loss, the index held marginally positive year-to-date, keeping its broader base intact. Near-term direction likely hinges on stabilisation in financials and follow-through from the mainland's tech-led bid.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts: 

SSE weekly chart

HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) rose 1.24% to 5,698.43, edging to fresh highs and extending a market-leading year-to-date gain of 22.65%. Gains were led by industrials and the local banks, offsetting broad weakness across property trusts and REITs.

Index Weekly Performance

-  Straits Times Index (STI): +1.24%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Extends Record-Setting Run

The benchmark notched another fresh high, cementing its standing as one of the region's strongest performers this year. The advance was concentrated at the top of the table even as the tape narrowed lower down, with roughly half the constituents ending the week in the red.

2️⃣ Industrials and Shipyards Lead

Venture Corp topped the index, followed closely by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, with ST Engineering and SATS also among the leaders. Strength in manufacturing, shipbuilding and defence-linked names underpinned the index's push to new highs.

3️⃣ REITs and Property Trusts Under Pressure

The Mapletree trusts, Frasers vehicles and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT were among the week's heaviest fallers, while Keppel DC REIT and several developers also softened. Rate-sensitive S-REITs lagged the broader tape even as Treasury yields eased late in the week.

4️⃣ Index Heavyweights Mixed

Singtel, the Jardine counters (JMH) and DFI Retail weighed on the index, ranking among the steepest decliners. Their weakness partly offset leadership from the banks and industrials, keeping the STI's weekly advance measured despite the fresh high.

5️⃣ Financials Anchor a Heavy Results Week

Singapore's three lenders reported 2Q/1H FY26 — DBS on 6 Aug, OCBC and UOB on 7 Aug. DBS posted a record quarter (net profit ~S$3.08bn, +9% YoY) on surging wealth fees, prompting Maybank KE to raise its target to S$85.86 (BUY); the stock rose 3.12%. OCBC (+4.02%) beat with profit up 22% YoY, though led by non-interest income, while UOB (-0.23%) lagged on elevated NPAs and a trimmed fee-income outlook. SGX capped the week with strong FY results and higher capital returns (Maybank KE BUY, TP S$28.33).

Technical Snapshot

The STI extended its uptrend to a fresh high at 5,698.43, keeping its year-to-date leadership intact. Momentum stayed constructive at the index level even as breadth thinned, with gains concentrated in banks and industrials against a soft REIT complex. The trend remains higher while the index holds its rising near-term support.

(Refer to the STI constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts: 

STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (10–14 August 2026)

In the U.S., the July CPI report on Wednesday, 12 Aug is the marquee release, carrying added weight after soft jobs data left markets pricing roughly a 42% chance of a September rate hike. Producer prices and retail sales follow later in the week, alongside the tail end of Q2 earnings season.

In China and Hong Kong, July inflation (CPI and PPI) and new-yuan-loan and aggregate-financing data are due, offering a fresh read on demand after softer PMIs. Investors will also watch for follow-through on U.S.–China trade frictions and continued Hong Kong corporate earnings.

Singapore starts the week shortened by the National Day holiday on Monday, 10 Aug (Japan is also closed on 11 Aug), before results season broadens from the banks to mid-caps and REITs. With the big three lenders now reported, sell-side positioning is split: UOB Kay Hian's Alpha Picks favours staying with the banks, while DBS and Phillip flag a rotation toward laggard tech such as UMS and AEM.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk is Wednesday's U.S. July CPI. A hotter-than-expected print would revive fears of further Fed tightening and could quickly unwind the AI-led breakout, whereas a benign reading would reinforce the “bad-news-is-good-news” dynamic and validate fresh record highs.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Fed Stands Pat: Tech Earnings Take the Wheel

For the week of Jul 31, global equities finished mostly higher as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold and a heavy slate of mega-cap technology earnings dominated sentiment. In the U.S., major indexes advanced despite three FOMC dissents and a sharp steepening in long-dated Treasury yields, with investors scrutinising whether AI capital spending is converting into durable returns. China diverged as a mainland semiconductor sell-off dragged the CSI 300 lower, while Hong Kong rallied on strength in large internet platforms. Singapore’s Straits Times Index edged higher, extending its year-to-date leadership among the markets tracked.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

 

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed the week higher but with sharp intraweek swings tied to the Fed meeting, the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, and volatility in AI-related shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained 1.04%, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.05%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 1.59%, with a Thursday rebound in technology stocks helping steady the tape after early-week pressure on AI names.

Index Weekly Performance

– Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +1.04%

– S&P 500 (SPX): +1.05%

– Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +1.59%

Monthly Performance – July 2026

For the month of July, U.S. large caps were broadly flat while tech-heavy segments lagged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.32% monthly gain and the S&P 500 slipped 0.13%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.20% as the AI-spending debate and the Fed’s hawkish shift weighed on higher-multiple growth names.

(Refer to the major indices’ monthly performance table below.)

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed Holds Rates, But Three Dissenters Push for a Hike

The FOMC held the funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth straight meeting in a 9–3 vote, with three regional presidents favouring a quarter-point hike on concerns about sticky inflation. Chair Warsh reiterated the commitment to price stability but offered limited guidance, leaving the timing of the next move unclear.

2️⃣ Long-End Yields Surge to Post-2007 Highs

Treasury yields rose after the meeting, with the largest moves at the long end steepening the curve. The 30-year yield climbed above 5.2% for the first time since 2007, reaching roughly 5.26% by Friday, as investors reassessed the higher-for-longer path and, in some cases, questioned the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve.

3️⃣ Mega-Cap Tech Earnings Split the Market

Four of the Magnificent 7 reported. Microsoft and Amazon rallied on stronger cloud growth, while Meta fell on an earnings miss and soft guidance and Apple declined on cost concerns and a cautious outlook. The reaction signalled a shift from rewarding AI spending toward scrutinising the revenue and earnings it generates.

4️⃣ Inflation Cools, But Stays Above Target

Headline PCE eased to 3.7% year over year in June and core PCE edged down to 3.3%, both below expectations but still well above the 2% goal. GDP growth slowed to a 1.5% annualised pace in the second quarter, while consumer confidence dipped to 90.8 as views of current conditions deteriorated.

5️⃣ A Strong, Broad-Based Earnings Season

With over half of the S&P 500 reported, 86% have beaten estimates at an average 31% upside surprise, lifting second-quarter growth forecasts to 37% from 22%. Gains have been broad, with 10 of 11 sectors posting year-over-year increases – breadth that could make the market’s advance more durable.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Consumer discretionary led the S&P 500 sectors, buoyed by a late-week rally in Amazon after its better-than-expected results, with communication services and financials also finishing higher. Defensive and rate-sensitive corners lagged, with utilities the weakest performer and real estate also under pressure as long-end yields climbed. Technology finished modestly lower on the week despite Thursday’s rebound, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war over AI capital spending.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX and COMP both rebounded after two-week consecutive decline and DJI also recorded 1^st weekly gain after three weeks down. Momentum remains constructive but is increasingly sensitive to rate moves and AI-earnings headlines. Structurally, all three indexes have been in consolidating sideways beneath their recent highs as they digest the mega-cap divergence.

📊 Weekly charts:

– DJI weekly chart

– SPX weekly chart

– Nasdaq weeklychart

 

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities diverged sharply as a global AI-shares sell-off pressured mainland technology and growth stocks while Hong Kong advanced. The CSI 300 Index fell 1.31% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) edged up 0.47%, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) surged 3.69% in local-currency terms, powered by large internet platforms including Tencent and Alibaba.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– CSI 300: -1.31%

– Shanghai Composite (SSE): +0.47%

– Hang Seng Index (HSI): +3.69%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Hong Kong Outperforms on Internet-Platform Rotation

The Hang Seng surged as investors rotated into large internet names, with Tencent and Alibaba leading. Gains in more defensive areas, including banks and consumer staples, helped offset technology weakness spilling over from the mainland, leaving Hong Kong the standout among the markets tracked this week.

2️⃣ CXMT Debut Euphoria Gives Way to Chip Sell-Off

Memory-chip maker ChangXin Memory Technologies closed roughly 466% above its IPO price on its Monday debut – Asia’s largest listing of 2026 – briefly the most valuable A-share at a market cap near RMB 3.3 trillion. Euphoria faded as selling spread across semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names on valuation concerns, though a Friday rebound trimmed the CSI 300’s weekly loss.

3️⃣ Politburo Signals Targeted, Not Sweeping, Support

The Politburo reaffirmed a proactive fiscal stance and moderately loose monetary policy, pledging stronger countercyclical adjustments, faster fiscal spending, and support for AI and computing infrastructure. Crucially, the readout stopped short of a broad new stimulus program, signalling that policy support will remain targeted and incremental.

4️⃣ Manufacturing Slips Back Into Contraction

The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3, its first contraction since February, as production, new orders, and export orders all weakened. The non-manufacturing index dropped to 49.0 – its lowest since December 2022 – underscoring persistent softness in domestic demand, investment, and construction.

5️⃣ Maybank KE: Rotate to Financials, Buy Quality AI on Dips

Maybank KE views this week’s tech volatility and rotation into financials as consistent with its preference for the sector, reading the AI pullback as a healthy correction rather than a fundamental deterioration. It would accumulate quality beneficiaries such as ASMPT and SMIC on weakness – the latter the HSI’s weakest constituent this week – and also flags CATL (power-infrastructure and energy-storage growth) and Trip.com (a lifted antitrust overhang plus resilient travel demand) as constructive ideas.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng broke decisively higher, clearing prior resistance on strong breadth as internet heavyweights led the advance. The mainland CSI 300, by contrast, remains capped by its semiconductor-heavy composition and slipped despite the Friday bounce. Near-term, the HSI’s momentum looks constructive, though follow-through will hinge on the durability of the global AI-earnings recovery and the pace of southbound flows.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– SSE weekly chart

– HSI weekly chart

 

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) rose 0.72% on the week to close at fresh highs, extending its strong year-to-date run and remaining the top performer among the markets tracked. Gains were broad but shallow across constituents, led by consumer and property-linked names, while a small group of industrial and technology-exposed stocks weighed.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– Straits Times Index (STI): +0.72%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Extends Year-to-Date Leadership

The STI added 0.72% for the week and now sits up more than 21% year to date, comfortably the strongest performer among the indices tracked. Weekly gains were broad but shallow, with most constituents posting small positive moves rather than a single sector driving the advance.

2️⃣ DFI Retail Leads Constituents Sharply Higher

DFI Retail (D01) was the standout, jumping 15.16% on the week, well ahead of the next-best movers CapitaLand Investment (9CI), up 6.83%, and UOL (U14), up 5.32%. Property-linked and consumer names featured prominently at the top of the weekly leaderboard.

3️⃣ ST Engineering and Yangzijiang Lag

ST Engineering (S63) was the weakest constituent, falling 4.91%, followed by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6), down 2.00%, and Venture (V03), down 1.30%. The declines were concentrated in a handful of industrial and technology-exposed names against an otherwise firm tape.

4️⃣ Local Banks Little Changed on the Week

The three local banks were near-flat, with UOB (U11) up 0.18%, OCBC (O39) up 0.14%, and DBS (D05) up 0.11%. Despite muted weekly moves, OCBC and DBS continue to lead the trio year to date, up 47.42% and 31.33% respectively.

Technical Snapshot

The STI continued to grind to fresh highs, holding a well-established uptrend with support building on pullbacks. Breadth remains healthy, though the pace of gains has moderated as the index trades at elevated levels. Near-term, the STI’s structure stays constructive, but stretched year-to-date returns leave it more vulnerable to consolidation on any external risk-off shift.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– STI weekly chart

 

📅 Week Ahead (03–07 August 2026)

The U.S. calendar features the July employment report, the marquee release after a hawkish Fed hold, alongside ISM services and further second-quarter earnings. With three FOMC members already dissenting toward a hike, wage and payroll data will shape expectations for a potentially live September meeting. Any upside surprise in inflation-sensitive prints or energy prices could reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative.

In China, markets will digest the weak July PMIs and watch for follow-through on the Politburo’s targeted-support pledges, including the pace of fiscal spending and bond issuance. Caixin private surveys and trade data are due, offering a cross-check on the official activity readings. Sentiment in Hong Kong will remain closely tied to global AI-share direction and southbound flows.

In Singapore, attention turns to the local banks as the second-quarter results season approaches, with DBS, OCBC, and UOB due to report in the coming weeks; NIM trajectory, fee income, and dividend guidance will be in focus. Regional PMIs and the broader ASEAN earnings flow will also guide sentiment.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The July U.S. jobs report is the week’s key binary risk: a hot print would harden the case for a September rate hike and could extend the long-end yield surge, pressuring rate-sensitive equities globally, while a soft reading would ease tightening fears and support the broad risk rally.

 

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.