For the week of Oct 2, global equities were caught between a soft U.S. jobs report and Treasury yields at multi-decade highs. In the U.S., tech-led gains in the Nasdaq offset losses in the large-cap benchmarks as the payrolls miss cooled rate-hike expectations. In China/HK, thin liquidity and an AI-hardware selloff kept investors defensive around the National Day holiday, with Hong Kong absorbing the brunt on its first session back. In Singapore, a heavyweight property reset and weakness in the banks and SGX dragged the STI lower.
(Refer to
the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)
Symbol Index Name Close (Wk) Change Chg % YTD % $COMP Nasdaq 27,190.86 +122.15 +0.45% +16.99% $SPX S&P 500 7,722.72 -20.70 -0.27% +12.81% $SSE Shanghai 3,842.19 -46.18 -1.19% -3.19% $DJI Dow Jones 51,176.96 -651.66 -1.26% +6.48% $STI Straits Times 5,634.82 -76.29 -1.34% +21.28% $HSI Hang Seng 23,972.29 -537.80 -2.19% -6.47% $KLCI KLCI 1,630.87 -40.75 -2.44% -2.93%
πΊπΈ United
States
Market Overview
U.S. equities
finished mixed as a weaker-than-expected September jobs report and fading
rate-hike expectations competed with elevated Treasury yields, volatile oil,
and U.S.-Iran uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 1.26%
and the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 0.27%, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP)
gained 0.45%. Long-term Treasury yields touched multi-decade highs before
retreating later in the week.
Index Weekly Performance
-
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -1.26%
-
S&P 500 (SPX): -0.27%
-
Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.45%
Monthly Performance (September
2026)
September was a
split month. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 1.86%, while the S&P 500
(SPX) slipped 0.45% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 4.29%, as
the Fed's rate hike and multi-decade-high long-term yields weighed on the
broader market and leadership stayed narrow. Year to date, COMP leads at
+15.57%, ahead of SPX at +11.77% and DJI at +5.91%.
(Refer to
the major indices' monthly performance table below.)
1️⃣
Payrolls Miss Cools October Hike Bets
The U.S.
economy added just 29,000 jobs in September versus consensus near 90,000, and
July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. Unemployment rose to
4.2%. Stock futures rose and yields fell on the release, while CME FedWatch
pricing for an October hike dropped.
2️⃣
Yields Spike, Then Retreat
A global bond
selloff pushed long-term Treasury yields to multi-decade highs before reversing
late in the week, lifting the S&P 500 off a two-week low. History offers
some comfort: since 1990, the S&P 500 rose over the following six months in
four of five episodes when both 2-year and 10-year yields jumped 50bp or more
in a month.
3️⃣
Core PCE Steady, Trend Improving
Core PCE rose
0.2% in August and 3.0% YoY, unchanged from July. The three-month
annualized rate slowed to 2.0%, the Fed's target for the first time in over two
years. Annual revisions also lowered 2026's average core inflation to 3.0% from
3.3%, though policymakers still view 3.0% as uncomfortably high.
4️⃣
GDP Revision and ISM Underscore Resilience
Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 2.2% annualized from 1.5%, with underlying private
demand growing at 4.6%. The ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 54.5, a ninth
straight month of expansion, though the prices index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9,
its highest since May, keeping input-cost pressure in focus.
5️⃣
Oil and Iran Keep Energy Bid
Oil prices
jumped more than $3 on Thursday after China suspended oil product exports, with
few signs that diplomacy to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran was gaining
traction. Energy was among the week's strongest sectors, while elevated fuel
costs add to the inflation concerns policymakers are weighing.
6️⃣ AI
Spending Anchors Earnings
AI-related
investment continued to underpin growth, with S&P 500 earnings expected to
rise more than 30% this year. TSMC is weighing a new Texas campus, and Tencent
signed its largest overseas lease with Oracle for roughly 100,000 AI chips.
Technology led the sector scoreboard.
S&P 500 Sectors in Focus
Technology led
the S&P 500 sectors, followed by Energy and Utilities, the only three
sectors to finish in positive territory. Technology benefitted from continued
AI investment momentum, while Energy tracked firmer oil. Health Care was the
weakest sector, followed by Financials and Communication Services, with
defensives such as Consumer Staples and Real Estate also lagging.
(Refer to
the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)
Symbol Sector Close (Wk) Change Chg % YTD % SPY ★ S&P 500 ETF 769.64 -1.71 -0.22% +12.86% XLK Technology 199.81 +3.54 +1.80% +38.79% XLE Energy 62.82 +0.78 +1.26% +40.51% XLU Utilities 39.83 +0.32 +0.81% -6.70% XLI Industrials 169.95 -0.48 -0.28% +9.56% XLY Consumer Discret. 110.04 -0.52 -0.47% -7.85% XLRE Real Estate 40.81 -0.75 -1.80% +1.14% XLP Consumer Staples 80.53 -1.53 -1.86% +3.67% XLB Materials 48.86 -0.94 -1.89% +7.74% XLC Comm. Services 110.32 -2.64 -2.34% -6.29% XLF Financials 53.49 -1.35 -2.46% -2.34% XLV Health Care 166.18 -4.52 -2.65% +7.35%
Technical Snapshot
The S&P 500
(SPX) bounced from a two-week low on Friday and finished near 7,720,
while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) held above 27,000 and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average (DJI) closed above 51,000. Leadership remained narrow, with
technology doing the heavy lifting beneath a mixed broader tape. Chart
structure remains sideways consolidation across SPX and COMP, while DJI has been in retracement down mode, adging lower for the past five weeks or so, leaving the
next directional break dependent on yields and the Fed minutes.
π Weekly charts:
π¨π³ China /
Hong Kong
Market Overview
China/HK
equities fell as thin holiday liquidity and a tech-led selloff weighed on
sentiment. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) lost 1.19% and the Hang Seng Index
(HSI) fell 2.19%. Mainland markets closed from 1 October for the National Day
holiday, leaving Hong Kong to trade alone on Friday.
(Refer to
the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)
Index Weekly Performance
-
CSI 300: -1.84%
-
Shanghai Composite (SSE): -1.19%
-
Hang Seng Index (HSI): -2.19%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣
Holiday Liquidity Keeps Investors Defensive
Trading is
likely to stay subdued through the National Day holiday, and Maybank Securities
adopts a more defensive stance on China/HK equities. Rising global bond yields
reinforce its preference for banks, notably BOC Hong Kong and HSBC, given
resilient net interest income and attractive dividend yields.
2️⃣ AI
Hardware Selloff Hits A-Shares
The CSI 300
fell 2.2% on Monday to its lowest since August 2025 after U.S. legislation
targeting Chinese-made AI data-centre components hit technology shares, while
fading Xi-Trump summit optimism added to risk reduction. Optical names such as
Eoptolink and Innolight sank, and the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.67%.
3️⃣
PMI Returns to Expansion
September
manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1, in line with consensus but
output-led as new orders dipped, while non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations
at 50.2 as construction rebounded. Widening price gaps point to ongoing margin
pressure, though PBOC targeted easing should support 4Q26 activity.
4️⃣
Property Support Steps Up
The central
government's 1ppt-a-year subsidy on new first-home mortgages, its first on
commercial mortgages, took effect on 1 October. Maybank Securities expects
better sentiment but stays selective, favouring China Resources Land for its
stronger balance sheet; the stock rose 2.72% on the week.
5️⃣
Healthcare Leads, Autos and Internet Lag
CSPC Pharma was
the top HSI gainer at 6.43%, and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose 8.5% over
16-30 September on supportive 15th Five-Year Plan signals for pharma. Autos and
internet lagged: Xiaomi, Geely, BYD and Li Auto each fell more than 5%, while Tencent
and Alibaba lost over 3%.
Technical Snapshot
The Hang Seng
Index (HSI) closed at 23,972.29, down about 2.6% from its last pre-holiday
close as trading resumed on Friday. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) held at
3,842.19, unchanged from month-end because mainland markets stayed shut after
30 September. With onshore markets closed until 8 October, the HSI is likely to
stay volatile and thinly traded, with attention on the mainland reopening.
Hang Seng Index Weekly Gainers
Healthcare,
consumer and property names led the gainers, with CSPC Pharma (+6.43%), ANTA
Sports (+4.14%), COLI (+2.98%), Nongfu Spring (+2.97%) and NetEase (+2.93%)
topping the list. Telcos such as China Telecom also edged higher.
(Refer to
the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD % HSI ★ HSI ★ 23,972.29 -2.19% -6.47% 1093 CSPC Pharma 9.93 +6.43% +17.79% 2020 ANTA Sports 74.15 +4.14% -7.95% 688 COLI 12.79 +2.98% +4.41% 9633 Nongfu Spring 39.54 +2.97% -15.58% 9999 NetEase 186.20 +2.93% -13.23% 2269 WuXi Bio 54.55 +2.92% +73.51% 1109 CR Land 29.42 +2.72% +8.16% 960 Longfor 5.46 +2.53% -36.16% 836 CR Power 19.44 +2.37% +12.31% 1378 China Hongqiao 21.16 +2.12% -35.13% 288 WH Group 6.63 +1.92% -23.53% 3692 Hansoh 34.14 +1.85% -5.38% 6690 Haier 20.08 +1.57% -17.30% 322 Tingyi 11.53 +1.41% -2.21% 728 China Telecom 4.45 +1.37% -17.44% 669 Techtronic 128.70 +1.34% +43.16% 6862 Haidilao 9.20 +1.27% -35.47% 857 PetroChinaHPCD 9.52 +1.12% +13.54% 883 CNOOC 23.52 +0.51% +10.42% 941 China MobileHCMD 78.85 +0.51% -3.49% 1209 CR Mixc 37.18 +0.49% -13.41% 6 Power Assets 59.35 +0.34% +7.62% 2331 Li Ning 12.28 +0.33% -34.23% 291 CR Beer 18.46 +0.33% -29.60% 2319 China Mengniu Dairy 17.58 +0.29% +17.91% 939 CCB 9.55 +0.21% +24.25% 3968 CM Bank 50.60 +0.20% -4.17% 2359 WuXi AppTec 210.00 +0.19% +112.77% 1177 Sino Biopharm 5.58 +0.18% -9.71%
Hang Seng Index Weekly
Decliners
Zhongsheng
(-10.86%), Lenovo (-7.64%), Xiaomi (-6.41%), AIA (-6.17%) and Budweiser APAC
(-5.97%) led the decliners, with autos, insurers and HSBC (-5.14%) under
pressure. Internet heavyweights Tencent (-3.53%) and Alibaba (-3.69%) also lost
ground.
(Refer to
the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD % HSI ★ HSI ★ 23,972.29 -2.19% -6.47% 868 Xinyi Glass 7.96 -0.06% -3.81% 101 Hang Lung Prop. 6.47 -0.15% -24.80% 2057 ZTO Express 152.90 -0.20% -5.79% 1113 CK Asset 45.90 -0.22% +16.73% 2688 ENN Energy 48.62 -0.29% -29.74% 2313 Shenzhou Intl 33.98 -0.29% -44.48% 241 AliHealth 2.81 -0.35% -44.26% 3 HK & China Gas 7.04 -0.42% +0.50% 285 BYD Electronic 22.54 -0.53% -33.00% 1038 CK Infra 64.90 -0.61% +12.67% 2 CLP Holdings 75.75 -0.72% +8.84% 9618 JD.comHJDD 102.90 -0.77% -7.80% 1398 ICBC 7.46 -0.80% +18.52% 1088 China Shenhua 43.40 -0.82% +11.86% 2388 BOC Hong Kong 50.70 -0.88% +28.61% 2600 Aluminum Corp China 7.62 -0.91% -37.39% 12 Henderson Land 25.98 -0.92% -7.68% 316 OOIL 143.70 -0.96% +14.59% 1929 Chow Tai Fook 10.86 -1.00% -12.35% 3988 Bank of ChinaHBND 5.92 -1.00% +32.74% 1099 Sinopharm 14.73 -1.01% -24.23% 1044 Hengan 19.50 -1.02% -30.11% 16 Sun Hung Kai 106.00 -1.03% +11.93% 1 CK Hutchison 67.25 -1.03% +27.01% 6618 JD Health 34.64 -1.25% -37.59% 267 CITIC 12.77 -1.31% +5.89% 2318 Ping AnHPAD 52.00 -1.33% -20.18% 1024 KuaishouHKUD 29.58 -1.47% -53.75% 823 Link REIT 36.44 -1.57% +4.89% 386 Sinopec 4.36 -1.58% -6.75% 1997 Wharf REIC 29.98 -1.83% +21.97% 9992 Pop MartHPPD 149.20 -1.91% -20.51% 6160 BeOne Medicines 212.20 -1.94% +18.35% 3690 MeituanHMTD 70.20 -2.02% -32.04% 9961 Trip.comHTGD 302.40 -2.20% -45.42% 968 Xinyi Solar 1.88 -2.34% -36.87% 2899 Zijin Mining 31.70 -2.46% -11.10% 9888 BaiduHBUD 83.20 -2.46% -36.73% 762 China Unicom 5.42 -2.78% -30.27% 66 MTR Corp 31.68 -2.88% +6.31% 1519 J&T Global Express 8.46 -3.04% -19.04% 388 HKEX 375.80 -3.24% -7.80% 1801 Innovent Bio 96.25 -3.46% +26.23% 700 TencentHTCD 421.20 -3.53% -29.68% 2618 JD Logistics 9.69 -3.54% -15.19% 9988 AlibabaHBBD 104.40 -3.69% -26.89% 2628 China Life 27.50 -3.78% +0.44% 9901 New Oriental 43.10 -3.97% +2.04% 2382 Sunny Optical 62.05 -4.39% -5.34% 300 Midea 91.15 -4.40% +7.30% 27 Galaxy Ent. 30.30 -4.42% -20.93% 1928 Sands China 11.38 -4.45% -41.94% 981 SMICHSMD 60.25 -4.89% -15.68% 5 HSBCHSHD 149.50 -5.14% +22.14% 1211 BYDHYDD 73.90 -5.38% -22.50% 175 GeelyHGMD 14.74 -5.51% -17.65% 2015 Li Auto 42.62 -5.79% -34.28% 1876 Budweiser APAC 5.67 -5.97% -25.23% 1299 AIA Group 69.20 -6.17% -13.39% 1810 XiaomiHXXD 24.24 -6.41% -38.32% 992 Lenovo 34.32 -7.64% +270.63% 881 Zhongsheng 2.58 -10.86% -77.75%
π Weekly charts:
πΈπ¬ Singapore
Market Overview
Singapore
stocks extended their September pullback, with the Straits Times Index (STI)
falling 1.34% as property, financials and SGX weighed. Only a handful of
constituents advanced, led by UOB, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and ST
Engineering.
Index Weekly Performance
-
Straits Times Index (STI): -1.34%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣
CDL's Reset Rattles Property
City
Developments fell 14.77% after unveiling its GET+ strategic review on 28
September, targeting S$6 billion of divestments and S$5 billion of new growth
capital by FY2029. Analysts pointed to high priced-in expectations and weak
conditions. HK Land, UOL and CapitaLand Investment also lost about 5% to 6%.
2️⃣
DFI Swaps Maxim's Stake for Starbucks
DFI Retail will
exchange its 50% Maxim's stake for the Starbucks operations plus US$340 million
in cash, becoming a fully operational company. DBS Vickers trimmed FY27/28
earnings forecasts by 13%/7% to reflect the deal. The shares closed the week
6.06% lower.
3️⃣
Banks Split Despite Faster Loan Growth
UOB was the
STI's best performer at +1.27%, while DBS (-1.01%) and OCBC (-1.09%) slipped.
Singapore loans grew 2.5% month on month in August, with volume increasingly
replacing margin as the earnings driver.
4️⃣
SGX Lags Despite Market-Revival Push
SGX fell 6.29%
on the week, with analysts having flagged turnover expectations, even as the
MAS stepped up efforts to revive the local market. From 5 October, board lot
sizes change and minimum commissions on SGX online trades are removed at
brokers including OCBC Securities.
Technical Snapshot
The Straits
Times Index (STI) closed at 5,634.82, extending its pullback from the 5,700
level and trimming its year-to-date gain to 21.28%. The MSCI Singapore Index(SiMSCI) has corrected since its 8 August peak near 550 with momentum fading, and
analysts see 520 as key support, then 510. Near-term bias stays cautious while
markets digest rising yields, with the STI likely to range-trade absent a fresh
catalyst.
(Refer to
the STI weekly performance table below.)
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD % STI ★ STI ★ 5,634.82 -1.34% +21.28% U11 UOB 43.11 +1.27% +22.96% J69U Frasers CT 2.07 +0.98% -11.16% S63 ST Engineering 10.97 +0.92% +30.29% AJBU Keppel DC REIT 2.13 +0.47% -5.33% C6L SIA 6.66 +0.15% +4.06% C38U CapLand IntCom Tr 2.24 +0.00% -6.28% G13 Genting Sing 0.61 +0.00% -15.17% U96 Sembcorp Ind 5.84 -0.51% -2.99% BUOU Frasers L&C Tr 0.86 -0.57% -13.07% Z74 Singtel 4.25 -0.70% -6.59% J36 JMH USD 55.36 -0.90% -19.05% M44U Mapletree Log Tr 1.09 -0.91% -17.42% D05 DBS 77.21 -1.01% +36.99% O39 OCBC 31.66 -1.09% +60.22% ME8U Mapletree Ind Tr 1.83 -1.61% -12.02% V03 Venture 16.42 -1.79% +8.45% Y92 ThaiBev 0.43 -2.27% -6.52% BN4 Keppel 11.04 -2.30% +6.67% N2IU Mapletree PACT 1.19 -2.46% -19.05% S58 SATS 3.73 -2.61% -2.10% A17U CapAscendas REIT 2.22 -2.63% -21.55% BS6 YZJ Ship SGD 5.02 -3.28% +44.25% 5E2 Seatrium 2.03 -3.33% -6.02% 9CI CapLand Invest 2.47 -5.00% -8.86% U14 UOL 8.03 -5.08% -8.12% F34 Wilmar 3.47 -5.71% +12.66% D01 DFI Retail USD 3.10 -6.06% -21.52% H78 HK Land USD 8.05 -6.07% +15.83% S68 SGX 20.99 -6.29% +23.76% C09 CityDev 7.04 -14.77% -12.00%
π Weekly charts:
π
Week Ahead (5-9
Oct 2026)
U.S. ISM
Services PMI on Monday is the first test of demand and prices paid after a firm
manufacturing print, followed by Wednesday's Federal Reserve minutes from the
September hike and a $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction. Consumer sentiment
from the University of Michigan arrives Friday, with Constellation Brands
(Monday), Levi Strauss (Wednesday) and Delta Air Lines later in the week among
the earnings.
Mainland
markets stay closed through Wednesday 7 October and reopen on Thursday, leaving
Hong Kong to trade without onshore flows and setting up potential catch-up
volatility on reopening. Macau expects National Day holiday arrivals of about
150,000 a day, and China's September CPI is due Friday.
The SGX board
lot and commission changes take effect on Monday, and Malaysia unveils Budget
2027 on Friday, with a possible minimum-wage rise. Regional markets will
otherwise take cues from the Fed minutes and oil.
π️ Overarching Watchpoint
Wednesday's Fed
minutes are the week's binary risk. A hawkish read that keeps an October hike
in play despite the payrolls miss could revive the bond selloff that pressured
equities, while a patient tone would extend the late-week relief in yields and
support risk assets.
Source: Some content and data are
excerpted from publicly available market reports.
Unfamiliar with
a term? See the Glossary.
No comments:
Post a Comment