Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 13

Summary of content for the week of Dec 13:

1. Week 50 major indexes performance;
2. Week 50 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks rallied to fresh record highs this week. There are three dominant issues for the most part of this year 2019: trade, Brexit and Fed rate. As market already in speculation, China and U.S confirmed phase one trade deal after Asian market close and before U.S markets open on Friday, this is a relief and easing fears of further trade escalation. Brexit political uncertainty also reduced after UK conservative party won in the general elections. 

But gains brought by trade deal good news may have tempered by November Retail Sales data released this week-only rose 0.1%, well below expectations. Consumer spending fell sharply suggesting that consumers were more cautious about discretionary purchases. Note that consumer spending contribute about 68% of U.S GDP. U.S major indexes DJI inched up 3pts, SPX flat and Nasdaq added 17pts on Friday.

Among major sectors, Technology(XLK) outperformed, and Real Estate(XLRE) lagged.

China/HK
Shanghai stocks surged for 2nd straight week as momentum picked up toward a "phase one" trade deal. HSI index is the most outperform index in my weekly index performance table below, with 4.49% or 1189pts gain, it may play catch-up as it's much lagging behind other major indexes in YTD return this year--only 7%, as compare to SPX' 26% and SSE 19% YTD. 
HK stocks are very attractive for its very low valuations.

Singapore
STI formed a very bullish weekly candlestick and expected to continue rebound towards end of the year. Major resistance at 3285 previous high. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 6

Summary of content for the week of Dec 6:

1. Week 49 major indexes performance;
2. Week 49 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks were up sharply on Friday- DJI rallied 1.22%, almost fully recovered the 2days loss earlier in the week. SPX had fully recovered its loss and closed with weekly gain, what a "V" shape rebound! The rally came after a strong jobs report that showed U.S economy added 266k new jobs in November, as compared to just 128k in October. Beat estimated. Low unemployment and rising wages could support hopes that consumer spending(which accounts 68% of the GDP) is strong enough to prevent weak manufacturing from spreading to the broader economy. On the technically side, the "V" shape rebound in such as short time frame usually indicate market could be continue going higher.

Among the 11 SPY sectors, Energy(XLE) and Consumer Staple(XLP) outperform, Industrials(XLI) lagged.

China/HK
Both Shanghai(SSE) and HSI index ended the week on strong note. SSE index recorded 1st wk rebound after 3-wk down in a row, HSI also rebounded from its major technical support level around 26000. 

Singapore
STI closed first wk up after 3-wk consecutively down. Technically, it has formed a weekly long-legged hammer candlestick which is a very bullish sign.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Nov 29

Summary of content for the week of Nov 29:

1. Week 48 major indexes performance;
2. Week 48 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stock market hit another all-time high for the week, as growing optimism  about "phase 1" trade deal between China and U.S helped in the holiday shortened week. The U.S market now enters into holiday shopping seasons as Christmas just around the corner after Black Friday. Historically, December recorded as one of the highest monthly return. The chart below shows the monthly average returns for the SPX over period 1928 through 2017:

Among SPX sectors, Technology(XLK) and Consumer discretionary(XLY) shares outperformed this week, Energy(XLE) sector lagged.

China/HK
China stocks fell for the 3rd straight week as Trump's signing of a bill supporting the HK protesters drew displeasure from Beijing and complicated bilateral trade talks between the two countries.

Singapore
STI recorded 3rd week straight down immediate technical support at 3190 then 3167 YEC level.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Nov 22

Summary of content for the week of Nov 22:

1. Week 47 major indexes performance;
2. Week 47 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed modestly lower, SPX was down 1st week after six weeks consecutive up. Volatility remained low-- VIX index at around 12 level which is its two-year low level. U.S-China trade agreement "Phase 1" deal still in progress, but markets seem immune from the news headlines or tweets--less excited but more on economic fundamental data and corporate earnings.

The U.S stocks have performed very well this year. YTD gain for Nasdaq, SPX and DJI are 28.4%, 24.07% and 19.5%. As comparison, China SSE recorded 15.69%, HSI 3.01% and STI 5.11% only. The HSI and STI only recorded single digits gain, lagging behind quite a lot. Refer to major indexes performance table below. 

As for US sectors, Health Care(XLV) outperformed this week and Materials(XLB) lagged. 

China/HK
U.S lawmakers have passed a bill to support human rights in HK, and China already warned will take strong countermeasures if Trump signed it to become law. Markets worried it will affect the phase 1 deal agreement negotiation undergoing right now. China stocks reacted to it and also slowdown in its economy. The slip in stocks were not out of control and I still believe China market will slowing gain its strength in years to come-given its cheap valuation, especially those blue chips H shares in HK. 

Singapore
STI currently supported by 3200 level as it closed for 2nd week down. refer to its weekly chart below, still trading within its big triangle range.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Nov 15

Summary of content for the week of Nov 15:

1. Week 46 major indexes performance;
2. Week 46 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed another record high for 6th straight week-- the longest streak in two years. While investors continued to await details on the progress of U.S- China trade negotiation. The "fear index"VIX dropped to lowest level of the year. 

Within SPY sectors index, Health care(XLV) outperformed, Energy(XLE) trailed weighted down by a decline in Exxon Mobil. High valuation growth stocks gernerally outperformed slower-growing value stocks.

China/HK
China SSE index recorded a weekly loss of 2.5%--largest weekly loss since Sep, as weaker than expected economic indicators. disappointed data i.e. industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment grew much less than forecast in Oct. HK's HSI index was the worst performer with 4.8% loss for the week( refer to below weekly indexes performance table), as HK protest worsen off. and HK's GDP hit the worst since 2009 during the global financial crisis. 

Singapore
STI recorded first week down after 5-week straight up.Immediate technical support at 3260 and support level at 3220 level.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Nov 8

Summary of content for the week of Nov 8:

1. Week 45 major indexes performance;
2. Week 45 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed up for 5th week in a row, breakout to fresh new high as optimism grew about U.S-China "phase one" trade deal. Long time bond yield increased to their highest in three months also drove markets. Recession fears seem to be diminishing despite conflicting signals. 

Financials(XLF) outperformed and defensive sectors such as Utilities(XLU) and Real Estate(XLRE) lagged. 

China/HK
SSE index edged up 0.2% this week, the index has been consolidating just under 3000 mark for months waiting for a breakout to upside. HSI index looks more bullish as its valuation currently one of most cheapest worldwide, should play a catch-up if HK protest eased. 

Singapore
STI closed 5th week up in a row, its immediate resistance is at its downtrend line resistance around 3320 level as shown in below weekly chart.

 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Nov 1

Summary of content for the week of Nov 1:

1. Week 44 major indexes performance;
2. Week 44 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks rallied on Friday by a strong monthly jobs report helped stocks move solidly higher for 4th consecutive week. As expected, Fed also reduced benchmark interest rate to 1.5%-1.75% from 1.75%-2.0% this week. U.S economy remains on solid albeit slower, by strong labour market, still rising corporate earnings and low interest rate. 

Among SPY sectors, health care(XLV) shares outperformed and Energy(XLE) and Real Estate(ELRE) lagged. 

China/HK
Chinese stocks edged up this week as Caixin PMI unexpected rose to 51.7 in Oct, its best reading since Feb 2017 and the 4th straight month above 50 level, which offset U.S trade-related concerns. HSI also added strong 1.6% weekly gain. 

Singapore
STI closed highest in two-month, had break above technical resistance 3216 which is bullish.