SPX Bounced off a Bottom, US Dollar Rebounded

 Summary of content for the week of  Sep 25:

1. Week 39 major indexes performance;
2. Week 39 US sector indexes performance;

3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S stocks fell for the week, marking 4th-week decline in a row for S&P 500 (SPX) index-its longest weekly slide since 2019. Some selling pressure amid major negative headlines but the SPX closed on a positive note into the weekend. Technically, U.S stocks major uptrend still intact though the SPX into correction by definition after down more than 10% from its recent peak. 

The Negative Headlines. 

1. U.S-China trade tensions are rising. 
2. A coronavirus vaccine won't be widely available until Apr 2021. The resurgence of new COVID-19 cases in Europe to keep investors wary.
3. Jobs data came out worse than expected, and hopes for a new fiscal stimulus package fading.
4. The political battle ahead of Nov Presidential election could over shadowed economy recovery efforts.

U.S stocks major trend still up despite all the above negative headlines. Technology(XLK) stocks led the way rebound after being at the head of the pack in the pullback. Nasdaq index was the only index closed with a 1.1% weekly gain. Energy(XLE) stocks suffered the biggest declines in the SPX sectors. 

U.S dollar(DXY) rebounded to a 9-week high. As a result, Gold price declined to its 9-week low. 

China/HK

China Shanghai stocks (SSE) fell in tandem with the global correction. SSE and HSI indexes were among the two worst performing indexes with 3.56% and 4.99% loss this week. SSE index major support at 3200-3150, and HSI index major support at 23000-22500 level.

Singapore

STI index continued drifting lower this week and closed a new low since Apr. Immediate technical support at 2446-2450.

SPX Closed at Six-Week Low, Tech stocks Led the Weakness

 Summary of content for the week of  Sep 18:

1. Week 38 major indexes performance;
2. Week 38 US sector indexes performance;

3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S stocks closed 3rd week down in a row, SPX hit a six-week low, driven by weakness in tech stocks. Stocks had risen by 60% from March low to early September in nearly straight-line fashion. Tech stocks gained 80% during the stretch, including an average gain of 91% from the big five(Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Facebook). The decline in tech stocks appears still in control and a healthy breather. Technically, SPX uptrend is well intact but do expect short-term volatility in the market ahead. 

Value stocks and small-caps outperformed.  As investors continued to reduce bets on tech stocks giants. Energy stocks(XLE) led the gains within the SPX index, helped by a large and unexpected drawdown in domestic oil inventories and Saudi Arabia's efforts on production cuts. Communication services(XLC) stocks were among the worst performers, dragged by FB shares. Refer to the SPX sector indexes weekly performance table below.

China/HK

Mainland China(SSE) stocks were the best performer for the week, added 2.38%. As a batch of indicators highlighted the country's economic momentum and expected more fiscal stimulus to boost its economy. 

Only China's economy will grow this year, says OECD. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) raised its 2020 growth outlook for China to 1.8% from -3.7%.

HK's "Old economy" stocks dragging down the HSI index. HK's HSI rebounded this week from 24300 support level, after a two-week decline. HSI has been underperforming this year so far as the "old-economy" stocks which have heavy weightage in the index such as HSBC(5.HK) continue sliding, adding downward pressure on the index. 

Singapore

STI index continues wandering 2500 level for months, the blue chips hardly made any significant direction movement. Continue to watch technical support 2477-2502 gap support level for the time being.

Major Indexes Fell Further For 2nd Week Without Specific Catalyst

 Summary of content for the week of  Sep 11:

1. Week 37 major indexes performance;
2. Week 37 US sector indexes performance;

3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S stocks declined for 2nd straight week, as technology stocks had their worst pullback since March low, which left the Nasdaq index about 10% below its all-time high reached just six trading days ago. In my focused major indexes table below, all indexes closed in red for the week with Nasdaq(COMP) closed down 4.06%.

Tech and Energy stocks suffered.  Tech shares were among the weakest within the SPX index, while energy stocks also suffered as oil price sank below USD 40 per barrel for the first time since Jul, partly caused by the cutting of oil price for some customers by Saudi Arabia. Among SPX 11 major sectors, Materials(XLB) was the only sector closed positive with 0.98% up, while Energy(XLE) declined 6.45%. Refer to below weekly sector performance table for details.

China/HK

China''s SSE index shed roughly 3% this week, in 2nd week decline taking thier cue from the U.S selloff. In addition to U.S tech sell down, news that the White House was considering adding SMIC(981.HK), China's top chipmaker to U.S blacklist for Chinese companies dealt a blow to investor sentiment. Hong Kong's HSI index dropped 2nd week as well immediate technical support at 24300 level. 

Singapore

STI drifted down below 2500 following other regional peers. Has been the weakest index in Asia after philippine stock index. Immediate technical support at 2477-2502 gap area. Blue chips such as the three local banks appear attractive in the mid-long term given its sound fundamentals and attractive dividend yield.

Tech Stocks Led Sell-off, Uptrend Remain Intact

Summary of content for the week of  Sep 4:

1. Week 36 major indexes performance;
2. Week 36 US sector indexes performance;

3. Aug major indexes performance;

4. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

Tech-heavy Nasdaq led U.S stocks lower this week.  In a roller-coaster week, U.S stocks reversed and sold off hard on Thur and Friday, as investors took profits after an Aug rally that left major indexes at or near all-time highs. Nasdaq suffered the largest losses with more than 3% decline for the week. The three major indexes recovered most of its losses on Friday, left a long tail on its daily candlesticks and the indexes still hold at or around 20dma, the coming shortened trading week will confirm they are bullish reversal signal to resume uptrend or the beginning of more downside for profit-taking.

FANGMAN+ TSLA is the revised term used to describe mega tech stocks in focus in US markets, which represents the eight stocks i.e Facebook(FB), Apple(AAPL), Netflix(NFLX), Alphabet(GOOGL), Microsoft(MSFT), Amazon(AMZN), Nvidia(NVDA) and Tesla(TSLA). With the top-five names(AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN and FB) now constituting more than 24% of the SPX market cap. 

TSLA won't join SPX Index, for now. Along with its five-for-one stock split, TSLA has rallied in recent weeks in anticipation that it would join the SPX. But late Friday, it announced TSLA was declined to the SPX index. It's unclear why it wasn't included. The stock could be added at later date.

China/HK

China mainland SSE index fell, ended the first week down after five-week up in a row. Technically SSE's uptrend still in good shape, the index just rebounded from its 50dma on Friday. HSI index trading below all three 20,50 and 200dma now, major resistance level 25000-25500 area, immediate downside support at 24300.

Singapore

Singapore banks. STI has been the worst performer index in my table below with more than 22% losses YTD. If you look at a longer time horizon, it's a good time to pick up good quality blue chips such as the three local banks, given its good dividend yield and good fundamentals. 

U.S Stocks Getting New Highs, DJI Gets a Revamp as Apple share Splits

 Summary of content for the week of  Aug 28:

1. Week 35 major indexes performance;
2. Week 35 US sector indexes performance;

3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

Stocks continued to grind higher on largely positive news flow about potential vaccines for COVID-19, as well as better-than-expected economic data readings such as personal income and consumer spending. SPX is up nearly 52% since bear market bottom in March and is up 8.58% YTD(refer to below major indexes weekly performance table). 

2% Inflation Level. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated at its annual policy symposium that Fed will allow inflation to run "moderately" above its 2% goal for some time, which means it will not raise the interest rate for the next couple of years. The low-interest environment is generally positive for stock markets. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) Gets a Revamp. In its biggest adjustment since 2013, DJI announced that Salesforce.com(CRM), Amgen(AMGN) and Honeywell(HON) will replace Exxon Mobil(XOM), Pfizer(PFE) and Raytheon Tech Corp(RTX) effective Sep 1. The addition of CRM and removal of XOM is the main headline and triggered by Apple(AAPL)'s 4-for-1 stock split. Since DJI is a price-weighted index, the changes will make it more reflective of the current state of the U.S economy, which is more consumer and tech-oriented than industrial based.

AAPL's 4-for-1 stock split will be effective on 31 Aug 2020. Those who bought AAPL on or before 28 Aug will get additional three shares for each one originally holding. Refer to AAPL's Investor Relations FAQ page (Click HERE) for more info.

Large tech firms continued to drive the market's upward momentum. Among 11 major SPX sectors, Communication Services(XLC) and Technology(XLK) outperformed for the week, and Utilities(XLU) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors indexes weekly performance table.

China/HK

Mainland Chinese stock markets rose for the week. SSE index added 0.68%, and its YTD return is 11.6%-- is the 2nd best performer index after Nasdaq(COMP)'s 30.4% so far. HSI index added 1.2% for the week but has been underperformed with YTD negative 9.8% return, 2nd worst just better than Singapore.

Singapore

Singapore's STI index edged up 0.4% for the week but it's the worst-performing index with YTD negative 21.2% return, far away below its peers. The city-state's export-oriented economy hit hard by COVID-19 pandemic. With a belief that it will recover eventually, we should continue to balance our portfolio to have the local banks, technology and consumer-related top players while waiting for the recovery. 

SPX Marks the Fastest Bear Market Recovery in History

  Summary of content for the week of  Aug 21:

1. Week 34 major indexes performance;
2. Week 34 US sector indexes performance;

3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

SPX index advanced for the fourth straight week. Technology stocks leading the index to a new record high. By common definition, this marked the fastest recovery from a bear market in history according to Dow Jones Market Data. 

Uneven performance. Technology stocks such as Google( GOOGL.O) and Apple(AAPL.O) which are heavy weighting in benchmark indexes were among the best performers. AAPL has 7% weighting in SPX and 8% in the DJI index. AAPL becomes the first company that has crossed U$2 trillion in market capitalization this week, the company announced a four for one split and will be trading ex-date Aug 31,2020. Meanwhile, value sectors such as financials and energy shares recorded declines. Refer to below 11 SPX sector indexes weekly performance table.

China/HK

Mainland China stocks ended the week slightly higher as the postponement of the U.S-China trade deal review. Shanghai SSE index recorded 10.84% YTD return, second-best index after Nasdaq index as shown in my major indexes weekly performance table below. Technically, SSE index has been in sideway consolidation after having a breakout from its major downtrend line. Bulls are in control. 

HSI is just sitting above 25000 level, within its consolidation range. 

Singapore

STI index has been the worst index performer, with negative 21.5% YTD return, a lagger. A lot of room to the upside for it to catch up. Singapore retailers have been net buyer and institutions have been the net seller this year, according to MKES research webinar today Aug 22. Technically, STI's immediate at 2500 then 2400 level. 

SPX Backed to Pre-Pandemic Level, gained 4.4% Year-To-Date

 Summary of content for the week of  Aug 14:

1. Week 33 major indexes performance;
2. Week 33 US sector indexes performance;

3. Gold and Silver Price
4. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S and Global

U.S stocks extended their weekly gain, though it appeared bumpy and very near unchanged mark. SPX rises to within a whisper of its all-time high last seen on Feb 19. So far, the index has rebounded 50% from its Mar lows, but the economy still a long way from recouping its pre-pandemic GDP level. The giant difference was attributed by some analysts as the stocks are forward-looking and reflect future expectations, but economic readings display recent but backward-look activities. While markets appear churning at the top, there are some bearish divergency signals that emerged for now, keep monitoring.

GOLD and Silver

Gold and silver experienced profit-taking, recorded their first week down after 9-week consecutive up. In its latest filing, Warren Buffet's company Berkshire added just a single new stock to his portfolio: Barrick Gold (Code: GOLD.N), read more HERE 

SPX Sector Indexes Industrial(XLI) and Energy(XLE) outperformed this week while Utility(XLU) and Real Estate(XLRE) lagged. 

China/HK

Mainland China stock ended the week broadly unchanged as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the U.S-China phase one deal review on Aug 15. It reported on Sat the two sides have decided to postpone the meeting to a future date. 

U.S continues to take action against Chinese big tech companies such as TikTok, Tencent's WeChat and the latest on Alibaba increased uncertainties to HK financial markets.  HSI index rebounded this week after 4-week down in a row.

Singapore

STI recorded 2nd-week rebound in a row. Immediate technical support at 2477-2502 level and upside 2705 level.