Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 26

Summary of content for the week of  Jun 26:

1. Week 26 major indexes performance;
2. Week 26 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

Stocks gave back the previous week's gains, as worries about the 2nd wave of infection offset the news over some positive economic data. 

Technically, it's not the time to turn fully bearish now yet. SPX formed a lower high but no lower low yet, and it's still trading above 50dma and 3000 level. DJI appears weaker but also no lower high yet and above its 50dma as well. The strongest index among all three Nasdaq index just closed below its 20dma by profit-taking after hitting new high this week, away above its 50dma. Early sign to turn bearish would be SPX drops below 2965.66 recent low and its 50dma level 2980.

Bank stocks were particularly volatile. On Thursday, financials rallied on news that Fed was easing restrictions put in place following the financial crisis of 2008. Financials fell back sharply on Friday, however, on previous evening's news the Fed was planning to restrict bank's ability to pay out shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. 

All 11 SPX sectors closed in red, Technology(XLK) less affected with 0.68% down. Financials(XLF) and Energy(XLE) dropped the most with 5.8% and 7.7% down respectively. Refer to below sector index weekly performance table.

China/HK

China and HK had a shortened trading week due to public holidays. SSE index closed 2nd week up in a row, approaching its major downtrend line resistance and 3000 mark now. HSI largely trading within its 4-week trading range. 

Singapore

STI had its 3rd week down consecutively but the selling appears much under control, it looks a healthy retracement to me after its strong rally 3-wk ago. Major support level to watch 2600 and 2500.  

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 19

Summary of content for the week of  Jun 19:

1. Week 25 major indexes performance;
2. Week 25 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

Stocks rebounded this week and erased part of the previous week's steep declines. The technology-heavy Nasdaq index(COMP) fared best and briefly moved close to the all-time intraday recently. 

The week ended on a volatile note due to Friday's "quadruple witching"- occurs on the 3rd Friday of the month of every quarter, in Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec, and refers to the simultaneous expiration of single-stock options, single-stock futures, and stock-index options and stock-futures. The rebalancing of SPX index and several other benchmarks was also likely increased volume and price movements.

Mixed of good and bad COVID-19 headlines and economic data also contributed to market volatilities. Worsening of pandemic in several U.S states and Bejing continued weighing on sentiments. On the other hand, Fed announced it will begin buying U.S corporate bonds seemed to further support sentiments. 

Among SPX 11 major sectors, Healthcare(XLV) and Technology(XLK) outperformed, and Utilities(XLI) lagged. Refer to below weekly sector performance table.

Technically, the US three major indexes largely in their three-week trading range with no clear direction though Friday's drop in DJI index could led negative sentiment in Asia on Monday.

China/HK

Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) gained 1.64% despite a reported surge in new COVID-19 cases in Beijing, highlighting the risk of a second wave of the infections. Despite fears of another wave, public health experts believe that China will be able to better manage it. SSE rose to new high since Mar 11, approaching 3000 level. HSI in its recent 3-week trading range.

Singapore

STI posted 2nd week down in a row by profit-taking strong rally 2-week ago. Immediate technical support at 2600-2610 area.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 12

Summary of content for the week of  Jun 12:

1. Week 24 major indexes performance;
2. Week 24 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

The week saw a dramatic reversal in sentiment. U.S stocks snapped a string of 3-week gains that boosted the Nasdaq to all-time highs and the SPX within shouting distance of positive territory for the year. The SPX suffered its worst daily sell-off on Thursday since Mar 16, three main reasons attributed to:

1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised investors with a fairly bleak assessment of the pace of the recovery in the coming months, predicting the unemployment rate would end 2020 at 9.3% and warning of permanent job losses;

2) Concerning of 2nd wave of virus infections as reports of increasing numbers of cases in serval states;

3) Profit-taking to harvest recent gains as stocks run into new high;

Technically, SPX rebounded on Friday and recovered some of its losses, the recent uptrend from Mar low still intact and the index closed at its 20dma and still above its 50 and 200dma. No clear direction as to where the market will go in the coming week though weekly candlestick appears very bearish.

Among the 11 major SPX sectors, Financials(XLF) and energy(XLE) fared worst and the fast-growing IT sectors i.e Technology(XLK) and Communication Sevices( XLC) help up best. Refer to the below sector indexes weekly performance table.

China/HK

China Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) declined amid disappointing credit data and weak global sentiment. SSE ended down 0.38% after a two-week gain. HSI also down by profit-taking and after hitting a 3-month new high. Immediate technical support for HSI is 24,000 which is both 20 and 50dma.

Singapore

STI hit 2800 level and down by profit-taking, immediate technical level to watch 2611 gap support. Singapore is looking forward to re-open practically entire economy this month as saying by national development minister Lawrence Wong, this should provide optimism to stocks.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 5

Summary of content for the week of  Jun 5:

1. Week 23 major indexes performance;
2. Week 23 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S stocks rallied sharply this week, posting a 3rd-straight week of gains, turbocharged by a much better-than-expected May nonfarm payroll report on Friday, adding the already-high optimism surrounding the economic recovery from COVID-19 disruption. SPX closed the week up 5% and just 6% from Feb record high. The index has risen a marvelous 43% from March low so far. Refer to the major indexes weekly performance table below.

It shows the risk-off mode as the small-cap indexes were particularly strong. Moreover, over the last two weeks, with positive signs of a safe reopening of the global economy, the market rally has broadened from a handful of large tech companies with strong fundamentals that were largely immune to the COVID-19 lockdown, to other sectors tied most tightly to the economic conditions, such as financials, industrials and real estate. 

Within SPX 11 major sectors, Energy(XLE) shares outperformed, helped by news that OPEC and other oil major exporters were considering extending production reduction. Typically defensive Healthcare(XLV) sector lagged. Refer to the below sector's weekly performance.

China/HK

China SSE rose for the week, aided by a thaw in U.S-China relations. As U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said he felt "very good" about the progress of phase one agreement with China. 

HK business environment expected to be improved after stability returned as the implementation of HK security law by China's central government. HSBC(0005.HK) and Stanchart(2888.HK) rallied 13% and 19% respectively this week after defying UK to endorse Hongkong security law. HSI index added 8% to 3-mth high this week.

Singapore

STI index was the best performer index this week with 10% gain, boosted by reopening of economy after Jun 1. Local banks, real estate led the rebound. The weekly candlestick looks super bullish, the market is expected to continue rebound in the coming week(s) with the next target at 2890-2960 which is a technical gap resistance area.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 29

Summary of content for the week of  May 29:

1. Week 22 major indexes performance;
2. Week 22 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;
5. Major indexes performance for the month of May

U.S

U.S stocks rallied in the final hour of trading on Friday, performed a "V" shape recovery from its early loss in the day, as Trump's press conference appeared to be less ominous than what market expected. U.S three major indexes closed new high this week since rebounded from Mar low. Refer to the below index weekly and monthly performance tables. 

To highlight, SPX closed up 32% from Mar 23 low and down just 9.6% from Feb high. The sharp rebound mainly due to governments' unprecedented fiscal spending around the globe as well as aggressive monetary stimulus by major central banks. Stock markets are forward-looking despite current ugly economic data.

Technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index(#COMP) climbed within 3% of its Feb peak and it's the only index recorded positive YTD return with 5.77% up. Refer to below index weekly performance table. The more cyclical stocks gaining ground, the Financials( XLF) and Industrials(XLI) outperformed this week, while Energy(XLE) stocks lagged. Refer to below table for S&P 500 major sectors indexes weekly performance. 

China/HK

Investors in China and HK stocks were in cautious mood ahead of Trump's press conference on Friday. Many analysts agree that the potential withdrawal of U.S. trade privileges would have a negligible direct impact on HK as its main focus is on merchandise trade. Trade in the services category, which is far more important, is not affected.

MSCI announced a deal with the Hong Kong Exchange(HKEX), to sell 37 futures and options contracts based on its Asian and emerging market indexes. It will let the agreement license with Singapore Stock Exchange expire in Feb 2020 at the same time. This is positive news for HKEX. 

Singapore

STI edged up a little and closed within its technical support area 2500-2522 level. SGX was under selling pressure as it will stop trading MSCI index futures other than MSCI Singapore next year. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 22

Summary of content for the week of  May 22:

1. Week 21 major indexes performance;
2. Week 21 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S three major indexes finished the week with new highs since Mar low, on optimism over the reopening of the economies and hopes of getting vaccines. Though later in the week some caution returned as U.S-China tension raised further, China planned to impose a new security law in Hong Kong, and as U.S introduced a new law could force Chinese firms to delist from the U.S exchanges.

The "fear index" VIX has since dropped to around 28 from high of over 80 in March when panic selling occurred, this is an indication investors turned to more bullish and risk-on mode. U.S markets will be closed for a public holiday on Monday.

Among the 11 major SPX sectors, Industrials(XLI) and Energy(XLE) outperformed while Healthcare(XLV) lagged this week, refer to below sectors weekly performance table.

China/HK

Further deterioration in U.S-China relations as U.S introduced a new bill that required Chinese companies to prove that they are not owned or controlled by a foreign government. HK exchange would be a beneficiary as more Chinese ADRs would likely seek a Hk listing instead.  HSI index sold off hard on Friday as China announced plans to impose national security law on HK. The HSI index broke down its 7-week sideway consolidation support level, technical is bearish with immediate downside support at 21500-which is Mar low. SSE index also dropped but largely remain within its 4-week trading range. 

Singapore

Singapore STI index broke down and just inches closed below 2500 technically support, next level of support would be 2400 if it continued to drop. Singapore will be closed for a public holiday on Monday and will resume trading on Tuesday.  

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 15

Summary of content for the week of  May 15:

1. Week 20 major indexes performance;
2. Week 20 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S stocks ended lower and erased most of the prior week's gain as renewed U.S-China trade tensions and bleak economic data and warnings of further weakness ahead from Fed. U.S stocks losses divided, the technology dominant Nasdaq dropped little with 1.17% down but DJI index lost big with 2.65% down. Technically, no clear direction for the coming week as the week's candlesticks largely within prior 4-week trading range for SPX and DJI and Nasdaq formed a doji-liked candlestick which was indecisive. SPX and Nasdaq closed above both their 20 and 50 dma and DJI closed in between 20 and 50dma.

Among 11 major SPY sectors, Health care and consumer (both staples and discretionary) shares held up relatively well, while energy stocks lagged despite a rise in domestic oil prices, which touched their highest level in over a month. Real estate shares were also exceptionally weak, as worries grew that struggling retailers and other businesses would be unable to make lease payments.

China/HK

China A-Shares were able to hold steady as U.S stock came under selling pressure until midweek, before weakening on renewed anti-China threats from Trump. SSE finished the first week down after two consecutive weeks up. HSI index down but still trading within its 6-week trading range with no clear direction. 

Singapore

STI gave back all its prior week's gain and still trapped within its 5-week trading range as well. No clear direction with immediate technical support at 2500-2522 level.