Stocks Close Mixed, Fed Hold Rates Steady, Hopes for De-escalation in Middle East

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jun 20, U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week narrowly mixed, fluctuating throughout the week amid a slew of headlines regarding escalating tensions in the Middle East. Smaller-cap indexes performed best for the week, followed by the Nasdaq Composite(COMP), which posted modest gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) was relatively flat, while the S&P 500 Index(SPX) finished modestly lower. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance tables.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    The Fed held interest rates steady at current level of 4.25% to 4.5%, as was widely expected. This marked the 4^th consecutive meeting to maintaining its benchmark rate unchanged. Notes uncertainty “has diminished but remains elevated” 

2.    Retail sales decline, hosing starts hit five-year low. Tuesday’s report showed that retail sales fell for 2^nd consecutive month, declining 0.9% after April’s drop of 0.1%. House starts data from NAHB was 32 in June, down two points from May. 

3.    Israel- Iran war continues, with crude oil settled down on Friday(Jun 20), as Trump said he might take two weeks to decide US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Brent crude futures settled down US$1.84, or 2.33 per cent, to US$77.01 a barrel.

SPX sectors in play

Five out of 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, Energy(XLE) was the top gainer for 2^nd consecutive week, attributed to the geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Financials(XLF), Tech(XLK) and Communication Services(XLC) were among top gainers too. Healthcare(XLV) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

The indexes largely remain in the toppish sideway consolidation mode with little changes. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets retreated as investors turned their attention to the economy after a batch of mixed data. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 0.51% and the blue-chip CSI 300 declined 0.45%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index was down 1.52%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    A trio of indicators showed that China’s economy was on track to record solid growth for the second quarter. Retail sales rose 6.4% in May from a year ago, the fastest pace since December 2023, according to the country’s statistics office. However, industrial output in May and fixed-asset investment year-to-date both increased less than economists’ forecasts. Moreover, analysts noted that May’s retail sales surge was likely due to temporary tailwinds, including a government sponsored trade-in program for appliances and other consumer goods aimed at bolstering consumption. 

2.    Earlier in the week, a report underscored the continued weakness in China’s property market. New home prices in 70 cities fell 0.22% in May from April, the biggest month-on-month drop in seven months, while used home prices fell 0.5%, the steepest decline in eight months, Bloomberg reported, citing official data. Ending a prolonged housing-driven slowdown is a key challenge for China’s leaders, who are trying to bolster domestic consumption longer term to insulate the economy from higher U.S. tariffs. However, the data suggested that the impact of a stimulus program that Beijing rolled out last September to support the country’s moribund property market was wearing off. 

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) was down 0.72% to close at 3883.43 point this week. The index recorded its 2^nd consecutive weekly loss but largely remained within its past six-week sideway consolidation range. Top weekly gains were REITs such as MLT FCT and CICT, Keppel corp was another top gainers as well.

Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Stocks Decline amid Escalating tensions in the Middle East

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jun 13, U.S. stocks reversed early gains amid of escalating military confliction between Iran and Isarael. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) shed 1.32% and dropped back into negative territory for the year. The S&P 500 Index(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite(COMP) fell to a lesser extent and remained positive year-to-date.

Major indexes were broadly higher through Thursday, buoyed by some better-than-expected economic data releases as well as reports that trade talks between the U.S. and China had led to a preliminary agreement to ease recent trade tensions. However, sentiment quickly turned negative on Friday morning on news that Israel had launched a series of airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders, with a pledge of more attacks to come, to which Iran reportedly responded with a retaliatory attack later on Friday. The significant escalation in tensions sent oil prices surging, benefiting energy stocks, while the broader indexes fell sharply and gave back gains from earlier in the week. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance tables.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Consumer Sentiment for June improves according to report released on Friday. The University of Michigan’s index of Consumer Sentiment improved to 60.5 from 52.2 in May, snapping a six-month streak of declining readings. 

2.    Inflation has remained contained thus far in 2025. May data for both CPI and PPI inflation reported in the week surprised to downside, with headline CPI around 2.4%, and PPI around 2.6%. It appears that the inflation is approaching to Fed’s 2.0% target. 

3.    Oil and energy prices under spotlight due to the impact of geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The crude oil future spike up around 13% in the week to 73.18 per barrel after Israeli launched military strike on Iran. Historically, these sharp moves in commodities prices driven by geopolitics tend to be short-lived. 

4.    Tariff and trade negotiations in the weeks ahead continue in focus. China and the U.S. have established a trading “framework” this week. The ones watching most closely is a potential deal with China and the July 9 end of the 90-day pause with other major trading partners. 

5.    U.S. tax bill and Fed rate cuts will be watching closely as well. Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is pending vote in the Senate ahead of Jul 4. And It’s expected the Fed will have two rate cuts in the second half this year. 

SPX sectors in play

Five out of 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, Energy(XLE) is clearly a top winner attribute to crude oil price spike up. Healthcare(XLV) and Technology (XLK) also among the top gainers while Financials( XLF) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Better economic and inflation data has been reflected in recent stock-price movements. The SPX has rebounded over 20% since its Aril 7 low. However, do expect in the weeks ahead due to tariffs and geopolitics tension. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets declined as the latest inflation snapshot underscored the deflationary pressure weighing on China’s economy. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) and the blue-chip CSI 300 both shed 0.25%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index edged up 0.42%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s consumer price index declined in May for the fourth straight month year on year, the country’s statistics bureau reported. Factory deflation continued for the 32nd straight month, with producer prices sinking the most in nearly two years, according to Bloomberg. Deflation is regarded as a fundamental economic challenge for China, where a multiyear property crisis has sapped domestic demand. Economists’ outlook for prices in China remains weak despite a more bullish view of the broader economy in the near term after Beijing and Washington agreed to a temporary tariff reprieve in May. 

2.    Chinese stocks rose to their highest level for the week on Wednesday on news that officials from China and the U.S. agreed on a preliminary deal to reduce trade tensions following a two-day meeting in London. Details regarding the deal were scarce, however, and are pending approval from the respective leaders of both countries.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) was down 0.58% to close at 3911.42 point this week. The index has gained more than 16% since Apr 9 low this year, has been in sideway consolidation for the past five weeks. Overall uptrend is well intact.

Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Stocks Climb on Positive Trade Headlines

 

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jun 6, U.S. indexes closed higher for the second week in a row. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP, up 2.18%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI, up 1.17%) both advanced to join the S&P 500 Index(SPX) in positive territory for the year.

Strong earnings results from AI-related stocks, Trump and China’s Xi held a phone call that “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries”, according to a social media post from Trump, gave investors some hope that the trade issues could be resolved. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance tables.

Key highlights for the week and next: 

1.    Despite some signs of cooling, the May jobs data came in better than expected, easing concerns about a sharp economic slowdown amid ongoing tariff headwinds. As reported on Friday, the U.S. economy added 139k jobs in May, slightly above expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. 

2.    Q1 earnings season wrap up, underscoring corporate strength. SPX companies delivered solid results, growing profits 12.5% year-over-year, the third quarter of double-digit growth in the past four. While earnings growth estimates for 2025 have been revised down from 14% to 8.5%, the 2026 outlook remains steady, pointing to the potential for reacceleration. 

3.    Going forward, trade developments- Jul 9 expiration of the 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariff rates and Aug 12 end of the China’s 90-day pause potential catalysts for volatility. 

4.    Market will also focus on Fed meeting on June 18. The probability of a rate cut has now fallen to near zero, as the economy continues to chug along and Fed officials are taking a wait-and-see approach. 

5.    Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” passed in the House and has now moved to the Senate. The bill includes a boost in the debt ceiling. 

SPX sectors in play

Eight out of 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly losses, Technology (XLK) and Communication Services(XLC) led the gains while Consumer Discretionary(XLY) and Consumer Staples(XLP) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Information technology stocks outperformed, due in part to upbeat sentiment around artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks in the wake of several positive corporate earnings reports. News that Facebook parent Meta Platforms(META) is entering a 20-year contract with Constellation Energy to power its AI operations also appeared to help boost sentiment in the space.

Indexes technical levels

The major indexes have recorded 2^nd weekly gains in a row. All three major US indexes have returned positive YTD now. SPX and COMP moved up from their three-week sideways consolidation range which is bullish, DJI still within its four-week range but closed highest in the period.  Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets advanced as a batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators raised hopes that the government would roll out more stimulus. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.13% while the blue-chip CSI 300 rose 0.88%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 2.16%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    A private survey showed that China’s manufacturing sector suffered its biggest decline since September 2022, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs on smaller exporters. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in May from April’s 50.4 reading, trailing economists’ forecasts and falling below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. The Caixin services PMI rose to 51.1 in May from 50.7 in April. 

2.    The Caixin data were far weaker than official indicators released the prior weekend. China’s official PMI ticked up to 49.5 in May from 49.0 in April, likely reflecting the temporary reprieve on U.S. tariffs. China and the U.S. reached an agreement on May 12 to reduce tariffs for 90 days to allow for further talks on a lasting deal. The official nonmanufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, fell to 50.3 from 50.4. 

3.    The contraction in manufacturing revealed in the Caixin survey supported the view that Beijing needs to roll out more incentives to boost consumption as it tries to offset the impact of U.S. tariff hikes. Last month, China’s central bank announced a slew of easing measures, including cutting the seven-day reverse repurchase rate, a key policy rate, and the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Expectations that a spiraling trade war with the U.S. would spur Beijing to deploy more stimulus have driven Chinese stocks in recent weeks, though hopes for more support have been tempered as both countries work toward a broader agreement.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week(please refer to my FB group for full list).

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 1.02% to close at 3934.29 point this week. The indexed continues to crawling higher. Overall trend is upside.

Top weekly gainers including CDL (+8.47%), YZJ Ship(+8.02%) and UOL(+7.01%) Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Stocks Higher and Tariff Saga Continues

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of May 30, U.S. stocks rebounded during the holiday-shortened week, although major indexes faced some selling pressure late in the week and finished below their best levels. The Nasdaq Composite(COMP) led the way, gaining 2.01%, followed by the S&P 500 Index(SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI).

Delayed 50% tariff on EU goods, U.S. court of international Trade ordered the stop of global tariffs then a federal appeals court put a temporary hold on the ruling one day after. Comments from Treasury Secretary about U.S.-China trade talks being “a bit stalled”, as well as Trump’s social media comments that China had “violated” its preliminary agreement with the U.S. all the major events have contributed to the stocks volatility during the week. Refer to below major indexes performance tables for the week and also for the month of May.

Monthly indexes performance table as below. The old Wall Street adage states, "Sell in May and go away." However, this year investors did just the opposite. We saw a nice bump in performance in May, despite the ongoing uncertainty, the SPX is up about 6% for the month of May and is slightly positive this year. with the S&P 500 rising about 6% (after falling nearly 6% in the first four months of the year). Historically, a strong May has boded well for the forward 12-month market performance.

Key highlights for the week and next: 

1.    Core personal consumption expenditures(PCE)- the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation- rose 2.5% yoy in April, down from 2.7% in March and lowest annual reading since 2021. Many do not expect to see the full impact from tariffs until later this summer. 

2.    Corporate earnings season overall has outperformed expectations, driven by positive surprises in tech and health care. Last week, artificial intelligence (AI) giant NVIDIA delivered solid results, despite the overhang from trade restrictions in China. 

3.    The University of Michigan reported that the final reading of its May Index of Consumer Sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four consecutive months of steep declines. 

SPX sectors in play

10 out of 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly losses, Technology (XLK) and Financials(XLF) led the gains while Energy(XLE) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

While earnings estimates have been revised downward this year as tariff and trade uncertainty have sparked caution in the outlook, investors still forecast positive earnings growth for nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors. Refer to below chart for earnings growth by sectors for 2025.

Indexes technical levels

The SPX has turned to positive slightly YTD after last week’s gains, while the other two major indexes still under water with moderate losses. The indexes appears to have stalled and in side-way consolidation mode after strong May rebound. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets retreated as a light economic calendar and a pause in the U.S- sparked trade war dampened buying sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) edged lower 0.03% while the blue-chip CSI 300 shed 1.08%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 1.32%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    After the pause in the tariff war that the U.S. and China negotiated earlier in May, Beijing has stepped up efforts to help shield its economy ahead of the expiration of the 90-day negotiation window in August. China plans to allocate RMB 500 billion, or roughly USD 70 billion, of capital to invest in new infrastructure projects, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources. Under the so-called new financing policy tool, China’s three state-run policy banks will raise funds and buy stakes in projects such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and consumption-related infrastructure. 

2.    Separately, officials who are preparing Beijing’s next Five-Year Plan starting in 2026 are studying whether to maintain the share of manufacturing in gross domestic product at a stable level over the longer term, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed officials. Though officials are still hashing out the next Five-Year Plan—which serves as an economic blueprint for the country—the reports suggest that Beijing plans to stick with its manufacturing-driven economic strategy, which the U.S. and Europe have criticized for fueling trade imbalances.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) edged higher 0.31% to close at 3894.61 point this week. The indexed showed very resilient performance, had one week down in the past seven weeks in a row despite the ongoing tariff wars and many ups and downs in the U.S. For May, STI index gained slightly 1.62%, a typical slow-and-steady pattern, which is preferred for buy-and-hold type of investors.

Top weekly gainers including ST Engineering (+3.85%), SATS(3.69%) and some REITs appear gaining attraction such as Ascendas and MLT. Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.