A Volatile Week for U.S. Stocks Amid Escalating Trade Tensions

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Apr 11, U.S. stocks closed higher after a volatile week in which a slew of trade-related headlines continued to dominate investor sentiment. The week opened with equities sharply lower, extending losses from the prior week, as negative sentiment intensified ahead of Wednesday’s implementation of the Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs. However, on Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced that he was authorizing a 90-day pause on the higher reciprocal tariffs for most countries, effective immediately, to allow time for negotiations. The news sent stocks rocketing higher, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining over 12% and logging its second-best day on record. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    After flirting with a 20% decline from its peak on February 19, a threshold that separates bear from bull markets, the S&P 500(SPX) posted its third-largest daily gain since World War II. The rally followed a White House announcement of a 90-day pause on the newly proposed "reciprocal" tariffs for those countries that did not retaliate to the April 2 announcement. 

2.    The tariff rate now moves lower to 10%, except for China, whose tariff rate was increased to 145%. In response, China raised its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% and will be ignoring any further tariff actions by the U.S. The respective tariff rates should effectively bring trade between the rivals to a standstill, which will have knock-on effects for supply chains and business inventories.

3.    Compared with the April 2 tariffs, the 10% universal baseline rate now looks moderate and manageable for the economy. However, the big jump in levies for China, the U.S.'s biggest source of imports, suggests that the average tariff rate is still poised to jump to about 20% – 25% from 2.3% in 2024. 

4.    The March CPI offered some encouraging news for policymakers. Inflation unexpectedly cooled, as core CPI dropped to 2.8% from 3.1%, the slowest since March of 2021 when inflation first started surging. 

5.    Volatility near historic extremes, with more room to fall than rise. The volatility index (VIX), also known as the fear index, has spiked to the highest since the early days of the 2020 pandemic. The index has been that high only eight times in the past 35 years. what history shows is once the VIX index has exceeded 43 (it reached a high of 52 on 4/8/25), forward six- and 12-month equity-market returns have been strong. That is not because volatility itself is good, but because spikes in volatility tend to occur when pessimism is already priced in. 

6.    Consumer sentiment lowest in nearly three years. The University of Michigan reported that its Index of Consumer Sentiment’s year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7% in April, the highest level since 1981. The overall index reading declined for the fourth straight month to 50.8, down 11% from March and the lowest level since June 2022. 

7.    Treasury yields surge on trade war concerns. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to well over 4.5% by Friday morning after ending the prior week under 4%.

SPX sectors in play

10 out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains. Technology(XLK), Financials(XLF) were among top gainers this week, while Energy(XLE) and small Real Estate(XLRE) sector lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

On Wednesday Apr 9, the SPX index had an intraday high-low range of 532.91 points and closed 9.5% higher, in just one day! Watch out its high-low range 4948-5480 for further market direction going forward. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets recorded a weekly loss, but declines were tempered by hopes that the spiraling trade war with the U.S. would lead Beijing to roll out fresh stimulus that would boost the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) fell 3.11% while the blue chip CSI 300 was down 2.87%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index slumped 8.47%. (refer to the above weekly performance table). Both the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices advanced for four straight trading days ended Friday following reports that top government leaders met Thursday to discuss additional stimulus to counter higher U.S. tariffs.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    On Friday, China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84% starting April 12, a day after the Trump administration clarified that the total tariffs on China reached 145%. However, Beijing called the U.S.’s latest increase a “joke” and appeared to rule out any more increases on its part. “The U.S.’s repeated imposition of abnormally high tariffs on China has become a numbers game, which has no practical economic significance,” a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said in comments posted on its site. “If the U.S. continues to play the numbers game of tariffs, China will ignore it.” 

2.    U.S. levies may reduce China’s gross domestic product between 1% and 2% this year, a forecast by economists that predated the past week’s tariff escalation. Regardless of the magnitude of headline tariff increases, economists think that Beijing has the capacity to offset their impact through more fiscal stimulus. Given that China’s economy has been deleveraging for the past several years in the aftermath of a nationwide property bubble, policymakers have more room to maneuver. Moreover, China’s leaders have clearly signaled their intention to boost domestic consumption, a trend that is expected to continue.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) slumped 8.19% to close at 3512.53 this week, the index gave back all its yearly gain and losing 7.26% YTD at end of the week. A massive selloff intr-week that hit lowest since last Aug, before recouping some losses by Friday. The decline was led by banks and few large caps. Despite the weekly decline, certain sectors, such as hospitality and banking, showed resilience, with companies like ST Engineering, Sembcorp Ind, SGX, SingTel remain in strong uptrending.

Refer to below STI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Tariffs Triggers Steepest Weekly Stock Decline in Five Years

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Apr 4, stocks fell sharply in response to the Trump’s announcement of a broad range of harsher-than-expected tariffs, which fueled concerns around the potential for slowing economic growth, resurgent inflation, and a possible recession. Small-cap stocks lagged as the Russell 2000 Index(RUT) lost about 10% and ended the week down over 25% from its all-time high, while the S&P 500 Index posted its worst weekly performance in over five years, was down 17.5% from its peak. The tariff announcement led to the largest one-day decline for some indexes since 2020 on Thursday, and stocks continued to slide through Friday. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week and monthly performance for March.

Major indexes monthly performance for March:

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    On April 2, President Donald Trump announced U.S. reciprocal tariff plans that were more aggressive than expected. A 10% minimum tariff will apply to all imports coming into the U.S. beginning April 5 while higher tariffs will be charged on countries that the U.S. has larger trade deficits with. The new tariffs are estimated to raise the effective tariff rate on U.S. imports from 2.3% in 2024 to between 20% - 25%, the highest in at least 100 years. 

2.    On April 4, China announced retaliatory tariffs, matching the U.S. reciprocal tariff rate of 34%. 

3.    The tariff announcement, and China's retaliation, drove risk-off sentiment in markets, with equities finishing the week sharply lower and U.S. Treasury yields declining to their lowest since October 2024. 

4.    From 2000 - 2024, the average U.S. tariff rate for all imports was a modest 1.7%. Based on the announced tariffs, the average U.S. tariff rate is expected to jump to between 20% – 25%. In 2024, the U.S. economy imported roughly $3.3 trillion of goods. Assuming an average tariff rate of 20%, this would equate to tariff revenue of roughly $660 billion, or roughly 2.3% of 2024 GDP. 

5.    Uncertainty likely to remain on coming weeks, as it remains uncertain as to how the impacted countries will respond. Some may take a similar approach to China, retaliating with levies on U.S. exports, while others may seek negotiations to lower tariff rates over time. It’s expected this process to play out in the weeks and months ahead, likely keeping market volatility elevated in the near term. 

6.    Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP) and Russell 2000 Index(RUT) officially entering bear markets this week. Declined 22.9% and 25.6% from their peak. While Dow Jones Industry Averages (DJI) and S&P 500 index(SPX) dropped 15% and 17.5% from their peak respectively, also in deep correction territory. 

7.    Job growth surges in March. The closely watched nonfarm payrolls report on Friday showed that the U.S. employers added 228k jobs in March, a sharp increase from February’s downwardly revised reading of 117k and well ahead of estimates for 130k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% However, the upbeat report did little to improve sentiment during the week as investors remained focused on the potential impacts of new tariff policies moving forward. 

8.    Expectations for the number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 jumped following the announcement, as investors wagered that negative growth effects from the new policies will force the Fed to ease monetary policy to support the labor market and spur economic growth. 

SPX sectors in play

All the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly losses from down 2.4% to 14.8%. Technology(XLK), Financials(XLF) and Energy(XLE) were hit hardest with more than 10% decline. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All major indexes in deep losses this week, the S&P 500 Index(SPX) posted its worst weekly performance in over five years. Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP) and Russell 2000 Index(RUT) officially entering bear markets this week. Declined 22.9% and 25.6% from their peak. While Dow Jones Industry Averages (DJI) and S&P 500 index(SPX) dropped 15% and 17.5% from their peak respectively, also in deep correction territory.

SPX long-term technical support 4740-4800 area, around 300points lower from current level. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets declined in a holiday-shortened week. For the week ended Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 0.28% while the blue chip CSI 300 fell 1.37%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 2.46%. (refer to the above weekly performance table). Stock markets on the mainland and Hong Kong were closed Friday for the Qingming Festival.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Following the Trump administration’s decision to hike tariffs on China by 34%, Beijing said that it would also impose a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10. It also announced several other measures taking aim at bilateral trade activity, effective immediately. The measures included: restricting exports of several kinds of rare earths, launching an antidumping probe into medical CT X-ray tubes from the U.S., halting poultry and sorghum imports from a handful of U.S. companies, adding 11 U.S. defense companies to a so-called unreliable entity list, and other actions. Several Chinese government ministries simultaneously announced the measures Friday evening. 

2.   China’s rapid response and the wide range of restrictions surprised some analysts, who had expected a more measured response. In the past, Beijing waited until U.S. duties were in place before retaliating. The latest U.S. tariffs will increase levies on nearly all Chinese products to at least 54%, Bloomberg reported. U.S. tariffs may reduce China’s GDP between 1% and 2%, a shortfall that the central government has the capacity to offset. Moreover, they expect that China will roll out more fiscal stimulus in stages this year as it assesses the economic toll of tariffs and whether they can be negotiated down.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) declined 3.69% to close at 3825.86 this week- its lowest in 10 weeks. The decline was led by the three local banks, PM Lawrence Wong warned U.S tariffs could trigger “full-blown global trade war”.

Top weekly gainers include defensive plays such as SingTel, ST engineering, Sembcorp Ind and REITs such as CapitaLand Ascendas REIT(CLAR) and Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust(CICT). Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Maybank Research stock recommendations after post-tariffs as below.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Stocks Fall on Tariffs, Inflation and Growth Concerns

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Mar 28, U.S. stocks declined, largely driven by weakness in the information technology and communication services sectors, while value stocks outperformed growth shares for the sixth consecutive week. Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a 25% levy on all non-U.S.-made automobiles—as well as concerns around a broader economic slowdown and weakening consumer sentiment weighed on stocks later in the week, sending major indexes into negative territory. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    25% auto tariffs announced by Trump. The tariffs take effect April 3 and target fully assembled vehicles, but will expand to include auto parts by May 3. The announcement weighed on shares of automakers and parts suppliers, as well as the stock markets of countries with large auto exposure such as Germany and South Korea. (The auto sector represents 7% of the German DAX vs. 2% of the S&P 500.) 

Given that about half of the 16 million cars sold last year in the U.S. were imported, the sector will experience a disruption. And there could potentially be knock-on effects, such as higher prices for used cars, repairs and insurance. Consistent with this line of thinking, rental car stocks jumped last week on the view that tariffs will bolster the value of their fleets as these companies eventually sell their used vehicles. 

2.    Reciprocal and other sector-specific tariffs. The auto tariffs were unveiled ahead of a broader announcement of reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, aiming to raise levies to match those of other countries. The tariffs would apply on a country-by-country basis and may include other non-tariff barriers such as value-added taxes (VATs) into the calculation. Separately, the administration has suggested that additional product-specific tariffs, including lumber and pharma, would be coming soon. 

3.    Inflation concern. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—rose 0.4% in February, up from January’s reading of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the core PCE rose 2.8%, remaining well above the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%. 

4.    Consumer expectations hit a 12-year low. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index declined for the fourth consecutive month in March to 92.9, down from February’s reading of 100.1. The expectations portion of the index dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, reaching its lowest level in 12 years and remaining below 80, which could indicate a recession ahead, for the second consecutive month. 

SPX sectors in play

Consumer Staples(XLP) was the only one out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. The weakness led by Tech(XLK) and Communication Services(XLC), XLK declined 3.54% this week, and was down 11.24% YTD. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All three major indexes headed down again after one week pause. All below their respective 200dma- often indicate as last defence line for bulls. It’s weak technically, it’s remain to be seen whether they will continue drop lower than recent lows, the Nasdaq Composite(COMP) was just 40 points above its recent low. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets ended the week little change amid a light economic calendar and corporate earnings that generally met expectations. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 0.4% while the blue chip CSI 300 edged up 0.01%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 1.11%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Profits at industrial firms shrank 0.3% in the first two months of the year over the year-ago period, China’s statistics bureau reported. The contraction fell short of economists’ forecasts for an increase in industrial profits and underscored the urgency for China to bolster domestic demand amid the threat of higher U.S. tariffs. Last week, a former vice chair of China’s state economic planner said that China should seek to raise consumption to 70% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035 from about 55% currently. Consumption in China should increase between 5% and 8% as a share of GDP over the next five years, the official told participants at the Boao Forum, an annual global investor gathering in China, Bloomberg reported. 

2.    Boosting consumption is the Chinese government’s top economic priority for 2025 as Beijing seeks to counter rising geopolitical tensions and diminishing returns on investment at home. China recently set an annual economic growth target of about 5% for the third straight year, an ambitious goal that analysts believe will require significant stimulus.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 1.17% to close at 3972.43 for the week, record its 2^nd weekly gains in a row, the index appears very resilient when market sentiment is weak around the major global markets. STI hits new high on Thursday to 4005.18, also its first time in record to hit 4000 level.

 Top weekly gainers include ST engineering, The company benefited from increased defence budgets across several European countries, aligning with its strong position in the defence and engineering sectors. Banks including DBS and OCBC were also among top gainers. Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.