Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Feb 21

Summary of content for the week of Feb 21:

1. Week 8 major indexes performance;
2. Week 8 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed lower, recorded first weekly losses in three weeks, as worries grew about the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the global economy. Number of cases infected in China seems like much contained but cases out side of China in countries such as S. Korea and Japan dampened sentiment. Latest business activity reports showed manufacturing slowed and the key services sector fell into contraction for the first time in four years.10-yr Treasury yield hit new 5-month low, an indication of money flight to safe heaven. SPX technical level to watch is 20ma 3323 then 50ma 3274 levels.

Stocks fell began in Tuesday after Apple revealed that it would miss sales target due to supply chain in China disrupted as factories delayed in normalizing their operation and demand shortfalls due to the close of its outlets. 

Technology(XLK) was among the worst performs in SPX sectors, Communications services(XLC) also weak. Refer to below SPX sector weekly performance table.

China/HK
China SSE index rallied to a one-month high this week, encouraged by a rate cut and promise of more support to businesses from the central bank, falling new virus cases. But HSI closed down first week in three weeks. Technically it hit its major technical downtrend line and retreated from the resistance level. Refer to below weekly charts.

Singapore
STI closed 1st week in three weeks as well but the index traded within its four weeks price range. Expected mute in tradings for the time being as market is observing more evidence that the COVID-19 outbreak's impact on local business and economy. 
  

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Feb 14

Summary of content for the week of Feb 14:

1. Week 7 major indexes performance;
2. Week 7 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks posted 2nd week up in a row, closed record new high. While coronavirus remained attracting global markets attention. Most opinions indicate economic impact is meaningful but temporary. Containment of the COVID-19 coronavirus seem to grow more confident, also U.S consumer sentiment hit two-year high helping pushed market higher.

All 11 major SPX sectors closed positive for the week. Real Estate(XLRE) outperformed with 4.86% gain and Materials(XLB) lagged with 0.7% gain. refer to below weekly sectors performance table. 

China/HK
Economic growth in China will see a much more negative impact from COVID-19 but will be temporary as well. Both China domestic funds and foreign funds seen continued flowing into A shares. China SSE and Hong Kong HSI indexes seen 2nd week rebound. Investors should be more encouraging once containment of virus spreading confirmed. 

Singapore
STI rebounded 2nd week and closed near its previous week high, along with other regional markets. However, there are noticeable increasing number of cases on the local transmission of COVID-19 virus, which further spreading to local community. There could be more severe implication on local economy. Keep monitoring.

 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Feb 7

Summary of content for the week of Feb 7:

1. Week 6 major indexes performance;
2. Week 6 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed at biggest weekly gain in six months, turned around drastically higher this week as it had biggest weekly loss in three months previous week. What a volatile market. Upbeat U.S economic data including stronger-than-expected Jan labor report, rebounded manufacturing PMI and the focusing of Walls Street- China's economic measures to offset the impact of the Coronavirus. Furthermore, China also announced to cut tarriffs on U$75 of U.S goods as part of phase-one trade agreement in the week, to be effective on Feb 14. Stocks shook off two-week slump and had a V shape rebound. Going forward, do expected market volatility increase. 

Among SPX 11 major sectors, Technolgy(XLK) was the best performer, refer to below sector performance chart. Tesla(TSLA) is under spotlight as its price rocketed higher in first two days this week and came off down. 

China/Hong Kong
Mainland China stocks opened this week after extended CNY holiday, dropped more than 9% on Monday as expected, and recovered sharply thereafter as China government injected RMB 1.2 trillion of liquidity into banking sector to support the economy and counter the impact of some of the short term financial stress. Foreign funds and domestic funds reported buying massively in a "bottom-fishing" manner. It has since recovered two thirds of Monday loss though SSE index closed still down 3.38% for the week. Technically there is a big gap between 2955-2877 area, most gaps will be closed in future. 

HSI index also recovered and rebounded after hitting its major technical support around 26200 level. 

Singapore
STI had gap-down on Monday following Asian peers but recovered almost 100% of its previous loss by Thursday, only down by short term profit-taking on Friday, gave back about one third of previous three-day gain. Bias to upside in coming week.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jan 31

Summary of content for the week of Jan 31:

1. Week 5 major indexes performance;
2. Week 5 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed with biggest weekly loss since Oct, dropped 2nd week, gave back all gain in Jan,SPX and DJI soldoff 2.53% and 2.12% this week, and Nasdaq(COMP) lost 1.76%. As the outbreak of coronavirus spooked investors globally, and still escalating. Bond rallied as funds flow to safe heaven. It's a busy week of corporate earnings and Fed  left interest rate unchanged. 

WHO declared the coronavirus a global health emergenc but does not recommend restriction on China's international flow of trade and travel. The economic impact is difficult to predict but the it is believed that the reaction will be short term and outbreak will be solved within months. As example from SARS in 2003, SPX declined 3.4% between the first case of SARS and last case over a six-month period according to Bloomberg data.

Among the 11 SPX major sectors, defensive sector Utilities(XLU) is the only sector recorded weekly positive close and Energy(XLE) continued to be selloff, losing 11% YTD. Refer to below weekly sector performance table.

China/HK
China stock markets were shut during for CNY holiday and extended to whole week as part of their efforts to contain the spread of wuhan coronavirus. China market will open on coming Monday. HK stocks lost 5.9% this week, resumed trading on Wed after CNY holiday. Cyclical sectors underperformed, hotels, airlines, travel, restaurant led the selling down. and some Pharmacy stocks rallied. It's expected HSI index will drop further on Monday following China markets but downside should be limited. The immediate technical support to watch is 26000 for HSI.

Singapore
STI's immediate technical support to watch is 3144 and then 3100 level. Refer to weekly charts below. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jan 24

Summary of content for the week of Jan 24:

1. Week 4 major indexes performance;
2. Week 4 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S dropped on Friday, SPX lost 0.9% - a loss not seen for while. U.S stocks taking a breather for the week following strong performance since beginning of the year. Global market underperformed on fears of the coronavirus outlook in China and spreading to other countries. 

What stocks will be affected? Global tourism expected to drop, oil demand will be lesser. Energy shjares lagged. Resorts and Casino related stocks such as Wynn Resorts(WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands(LVS) particularly weak given the decline in visitors to their casinos in Macau. On the other hand, Utilities shares outperformed. 

China/HK
Following the sudden outbreak of a new coronovirus in Wuhan this shortened CNY holiday week, Shanghai stocks(SSE) dropped 3.2% sharply below the important psychological 3000 mark and HSI dropped 3.8%, break below 28000 level as well. However, it is believed the short term panic selling will not last long based on the example provided from previous SARS outbreak in 2003. The biggest economic casualties are likely to be retail sales( online sales could benefit), restaurants, and airlines and travel. 

The three Asian indexes under my watchlist: SSE, HSI and STI all retreated from their major downtrend line as shown in the weekly charts below. Technical traders would have be alerted on the pullback or even go short already.

Singapore
STI retreated from its major downtrend line as shown in the weekly chart below. Immediate technical level to watch is 3222.83 Year-End-Close(YEC).

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jan 17

Summary of content for the week of Jan 17:

1. Week 3 major indexes performance;
2. Week 3 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stock extended its rally for the week, 2nd week straight up. As the U.S-China signed their phase one deal agreement, encouraging earning from U.S banks and better economic data pushed U.S stocks to fresh new high. The round of rally has extended upside a lot, but it won't be going up forever, for sure. Technically, the weekly candlestick is still bullish, but I think a short-term pullback is a reasonable expectation. 

Among 11 SPX major sectors, Utility(XLU) outperformed and Energy(XLE) lagged. Technology(XLK) and Communication Service(XLC) continued to be strong among other sectors. 

China/HK
China SSE index hit high early this week but eased ahead of signing of phase one deal agreement with U.S and did not rebound after the announcement. Technically, The SSE index hit its major downtrend resistance level at around 3120(see below weekly chart) and closed first week down after six-week up in a row, I think the downside is limited by strong support at 3000-3030 area. 

HSI appears to be much stronger, it has already breakout to upside from its major downtrend line( refer to below weekly chart).There are plenty of room to upside.

Singapore
STI has another week gain to close very close to its previous high of 3285.72 in Nov 7 last year, it also hit a technical downtrend resistance line right above. Weekly candlestick looks bullish, do expected sideway consolidation ahead of CNY or short term pullback. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jan 10

Summary of content for the week of Jan 10:

1. Week 2 major indexes performance;
2. Week 2 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks down on Friday, DJI slipped 133pts or 0.46% after U.S announced fresh sanctions on Iran and somewhat disappointed nonfarm payrolls report for Dec. However, the three major indexes all closed to fresh new high for the week, equities around the world rebounded and getting higher after Middle East tensions recede. Technology dominant Nasdaq index especially strong with 1.75% weekly gain. The mighty U.S stocks seem getting stronger and stronger, we know this strong market will not last forever, but it's very strong as for now.

Among the SPX 11 major sectors, the Communication Services(XLC) and Technology(XLK) are top perform sectors, led by Apple following a report of strong than expected iPhone sales in China. Google parent company Alphabet(GOOGL), Facebook(FB), Apple(AAPL) are leading stocks. Besides, China's Alibaba(BABA) has been strong as well since its launch of secondary listing in HK BABA-SW(9988.HK). 

China/HK
Shanghai Index rose for the sixth straight week. Stocks has been bullish ahead of Lunar New Year holiday. Historically the mainland stocks will rise during the 30-day CNY holiday window. The HSI index rose for 6th week in a row as well, breaking up its downtrend line as seen in below weekly chart. HSI index which lagged behind other peers last year is expected to catch up this year. Technically bullish and poised for more upside.

Singapore
STI rose for 3rd week straight up, slow and steady as it approaching its major downtrend line. Immediate resistance at around 3270 level.