Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 26

Summary of content for the week of Jul 26:

1. Week 30 major indexes performance;
2. Week 30 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed hitting fresh highs for the week, helped by better-than-feared corporate earning results and a stronger-than-expected 2Q GDP. The latest GDP released on Friday came in at 2.1%, beat estimates for a 2% but down from 3.1% in Q1. Consumer expenditures, the biggest part of the economy, beats estimated to increase by 4.3%. Fed is expected to cut rates in the coming week. 

Within SPX 11 major sectors, Communication Services(XLC) outperformed helped by Google parent company Alphabet's(GOOGL) gain, and Twitter(TWTR). Utilities(XLU) and Energy(XLE) were the two lagging sectors.  Refer to major indexes and sector performance in below table.

China/HK
China shanghai stocks up as traders looked forward to high-level trade talks with the U.S next week in Shanghai, first face to face meeting between U.S and China negotiators since talks broke down in May. SSE index posted first week gain after two consecutive week slip. Plenty of room to upside from a technical point of view. 

HSI index recorded 1.28% down this week, has been trading within the range of 28000-29000 for 5-weeks so far, the unrest of protest in HK for about two months will make its economy outlook more damage than good. HK's tourism sector such as hotels, luxury brands already feel the hit from protest chaos. 

Singapore
STI index has been trading near its top technical trading range 3380-3320 for 4-weeks in a row. It should provide early signs if trades out of the range. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 19

Summary of content for the week of Jul 19:

1. Week 29 major indexes performance;
2. Week 29 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks closed slightly lower this week, after hitting a cord high the previous week. Most of the attention now shifting to corporate earnings announcement, kick-started with banks. There are three heavy-weighted tech companies including FB, AMZN and GOOGL will report earning the coming week. The near-term rate cut expectations, U.S-Iran geopolitical tensions and U.S-China trade talks progress are also factors in play.

Among the major 11 SPX sectors, Consumer Staples(XLP) and Materials(XLB) shares outperformed. Energy(XLE) and Communication Services(XLC) are laggers, dragged lower by a plunge of Netflix(NFLX) share price. Crude Oil prices declined for five days in a row, finished 7% lower on global demand concerns.

China/HK
Shanghai stocks ended the week almost flat, China's GDP reported for 2Q rose 6.2%--its weakest in 27 years. There are hopes for more stimulus measures to support the economy should further signs of economics weakness emerged. HSI index was the most outperformed in my watchlist with 1.03% gain this week. Technically there are about 500 pts for upside move till it meets major resistance 29200 level.

Singapore
STI was trading approach its year high 3415, technical appears bullish as seen in below weekly charts.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 12

Summary of content for the week of Jul 12:

1. Week 28 major indexes performance;
2. Week 28 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks hit fresh new record highs this week on the expectation of Fed rate cut. All three major indexes hit a record high, DJI and SPX closing above 27,000 and 3,000 levels respectively for the first time, that's remarkable. Technology dominant Nasdaq index hit a record high as well. The Fed and ECB both considering fresh stimulus to the economy through interest-rate cuts. U.S solid consumer spending which accounts for 70% of economic growth is the main driver to its economy, as well as its unemployment rate at 50-yr low and low-interest rate. On the other hand, one of the main uncertainties for economy growth still U.S-China trade negotiations. One chart worth to take a look is the output gap and stages of the U.S business cycle, 1965-2019, as below:

Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Refinitiv Datastream, July 2019. 
Notes: This chart shows an estimate of the U.S. output gap (that is, GDP as a percentage of potential GDP). We have classified different time periods as belonging to certain stages of the business cycle. The classification of the stage is done via a 'cluster analysis' that groups together time periods where economic series have behaved in similar ways.


Among 11 major sectors, Energy(XLE) was the best performer and Healthcare(XLV) was lagging behind. 

China/HK
China Shanghai index recorded weekly loss, as the latest data from China showing both weaker imports and exports from U.S. Also the uncertainties about U.S-China trade talks are unlikely to be settled so soon. The three Asian indexes under my watchlist all posted weekly losses.

Singapore
STI had a pause this week after 5-week up in a row. Upside immediate resistance is year-high at 3415 and immediate technical support is at 3320 level. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 5

Summary of content for the week of Jul 5:

1. Week 27 major indexes performance;
2. Week 27 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks extended their recent gains in a holiday-shortened week, SPX closed remarkably record high for the week. Investors breathed a sigh of relief after the U.S and China agreed to suspend new tariffs and resume negotiations. The rally in bonds was also extended last week, as the 10-year government bond yields fell to their lowest levels in more than 2-year amid signs of lower U.S growth and expected Fed rate cut. But the closely watched Friday's employment report showed that U.S economy added 224k new jobs in June, the strongest month since January, this cooled elevated Fed rate cut expectation. The SPX technical resistance to watch is 3030 level. 

 Among the 11 SPX main sectors, the small Real Estate sector(XLRE) outperformed, while Energy(XLE) share fell. Refer to below SPY sector ETFs weekly performance table. 

China/HK
China and HK stocks posted a weekly gain, as investors reacted with relief to a temporary ceasefire on tariffs by Trump and Xi at the G20 meeting last week. the SSE index closed in 9-week high, with immediate technical resistance at 3050 level, while the HSI index technical resistance at 30,000 level. 

Singapore
The STI extended its weekly gain into 5th week in a row, approaching its all-time high this year, immediate technical resistance at 3415.

Index Weekly/Monthly Wrap for the Week of Jun 28

Summary of content for the week of Jun 28:

1. Week 26 major indexes performance;
2. Week 26 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;
4. Major indexes monthly performance for the month of June.

U.S
U.S stocks finished slightly down for the week as markets digested the strong gains for the month of June. Also, investors await the much anticipated G20 summit in Japan with hopes of trade truce and resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S and China. The week marked the end of 2Q and 1H of 2019, as well as the 10th year of current economic expansion- the longest-running one on record since 2009. 

The latest update from Trump-Xi meeting concluded three major agreements: 1) U.S agrees to refrain from new tariffs on Chinese goods; 2) China back to buy Agri products; 3) Trump allows U.S companies to sell products to Huawei. Tech companies expected to bounce including AMD, Xilinx(NVDA), Qualcomm(QCOM) and Intel(INTC). 

China/HK
Shanghai stocks softened for the week as traders stayed cautious ahead of Trump-Xi meeting. Expected markets will rebound in the coming week(s) as Trump-Xi meeting yield positive results as expected. 

Singapore
STI closed almost unchanged this week ahead of Trump-Xi meeting but it had strong gain in the month of June with 6.5% up, recovered most of its loss in May, we are looking forward next target 3415 in the coming week(s) which is year high 2019. Tech stocks and blue chips will be in focus.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 21

Summary of content for the week of Jun 21:

1. Week 25 major indexes performance;
2. Week 25 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S
U.S stocks finished higher for the 3rd week in a row, with SPX and DJI closed at fresh new highs. As Fed signaled a possible rate cut 2H this year at its latest policy meeting on Thursday to support economic expansion. Crude oil rallied this week as rising tension in the Middle East, oil-related stocks got boosted. The Fed's dovish statement pushed treasury yields lower-- the 10-yr treasury yield hit lowest since late 2016, which is positive for the high dividend yield stocks such as REITs and rate sensitive sectors such as properties. 

Among the 11 SPX sectors, Energy(XLE) was the best performer this week with more than 4% gain, Consumer(XLP) and Materials(XLB) were the two laggers. 

Semiconductor stocks under selling pressure after the U.S added another five Chinese firms to its entity list ahead G20 meeting next week, targeting Chinese supercomputing companies this round. AMD tumbled more than 3%, while Xilinx(XLNX) and Nvidia(NVDA) fell 2.2% and 1.5% respectively. Trump-Xi meeting is in investors' focus in the coming week G20. 

China/HK

China Shanghai SSE and HSI added were the two most outperform indexes with 4.16% and 5% up this week, as traders bet that Trump-Xi at upcoming G20 meeting would lead to resume trade talks that broke down last month. 

Among the latest five Chinese firms which were put on U.S entity list, there is one listed in Shanghai stock exchange- Sugon(中科曙光 SH:603019) will be under selling pressure in the coming week(s). Note when another Chinese company ZTE( 中兴通讯HK:00763) was under U.S sanction in Apr 2018, it fell as much as 60% before rebounded. How will Sugon(中科曙光 SH:603019) react this time around? It closed at 40.55 CNY on Friday, a 60% drop would bring it down to around 16.2 CNY. Let’s see.

Singapore

STI recorded 3rd week up in a row, added more than 3% this week, that's remarkable. The weekly candlestick looks bullish, next technical target would be 3360 then 3400 levels going forward.