Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 14

Summary of content for the week of Jun 14:

1. Week 24 major indexes performance;
2. Week 24 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S
U.S stocks edged higher in a relatively quiet week. Economic data released this week shows U.S retails sales rebounded in May following 1Q slow, indicates that consumers are still well-positioned, It's an important indicator as the consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of GDP. Another indicator CPI showed May inflation slowed to 2% last month from 2.1% in Apr. 

However, market sentiments dampened by the U.S-China trade tensions and 10-year and 3M treasury yield inversion. 

Among SPX 11 major sectors, Consumer Discretionary(XLY) is the most outperformed sector and Energy(XLE) lagged, oil attempted to rally following attacks on two tankers in middle east, but finished lower in worries of lower global demand.

China/HK
China stocks rebounded as market confident the government would step up stimulus measures to cushion the economy from the impact of U.S tariffs. HK stocks erased earlier gain as street protest turned into a riot, which added uncertainties to HK outlook. 

Singapore
STI recorded a strong 2nd-week rebound with an immediate resistance level at 3233 level.

 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 7

Summary of content for the week of Jun 7:

1. Week 23 major indexes performance;
2. Week 23 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S
Stocks rebounded from losses in May as anticipation grew that the Fed could cut interest rate to support U.S economic growth 2H this year. SPX closed up 4.4% which is the best weekly gain in six months. At the same time bond yield dropped to the lowest levels in two years. The economic data released were mixed but Fed cut of interest rate and U.S-Mexico reached a deal to avoid tariffs were the main pushing factors for stocks rebound.

All 11 major SPX sectors up for the week, Materials(XLB) and Technology(XLK) are the two best performers and Communications(XLC) lagging. Crude oil price added 1.46 or 2.78% to 54.05 per barrel, 1st week closed up after two-week decline. 

China/HK
China and HK markets were closed for a public holiday on Friday, closed this week at its 4-month low. Technical support to watch will be at 2800 in coming week(s). HSI closed slightly higher this week, just beneath 27000 technical support level. 

Singapore
STI added 1.6% this week, finished rebound after 4-week consecutive decline. Immediate technical support level to watch is at 3100. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 31

Summary of content for the week of May 31:

1. Week 22 major indexes performance;
2. Week 22 US sector indexes performance;
3. Monthly Indexes performance for May;
4. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S

U.S stocks dropped 4th week in a row, ended the month of May solidly lower amid rising trade tension with China and latest with Mexico. SPX index dropped below its 200dma, considered a pivot level. Bond prices continue rallied and as a result 10-yr bond yield declined to lowest level in 21 months, the inverted yield between 3M and 10-yr bond has been a reliable recession signal in the past with 6 months to 3years lag based on historical data. 

All the 11 sectors dropped this week in the S&P 500, Energy(XLE) performed worst and Real Estate(XLRE) help up best. 

The month of May seen major indexes in my table below lost between 5.8% to 9.4%. The monthly candlesticks for major indexes look bearish, signal further downside possible. 

China/HK
Shanghai index edged up a slightly weekly gain but still recorded their biggest monthly loss since October. Trade relations deteriorated over the week as China threatened to ban on its rare earth to the U.S and would set up "unreliable" foreign entities. 

Singapore
STI recorded 8.3% loss in May 2nd worst index after HSI. It dropped to 4-month low. The monthly candlestick looks pretty bearish, expected further downside move.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 24

Summary of content for the week of May 24:

1. Week 21 major indexes performance;
2. Week 21 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S

U.S stocks finished the week lower on concerns that U.S-China trade war just will be prolonged, and U.S economic data reports suggested growth is showing signs of slowing. It's interesting to note that the three major U.S indexes are much divided in their weekly performance, with the narrowly focused DJI dropped the least among the major indexes I monitored in below table for less than 1% but the technology heavy-weighted Nasdaq index dropped the most for more than 2%, as investors worried about the impact of rising U.S-China trade war on global supply chains. 

U.S bond yield inverted. The disappointing data and the continued search for perceived safe-heaven assets due to trade war pushed the benchmark 10-yr treasury note yield to its lowest since late 2017.(Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions). Now that 10-yr yield below 3-month yield- a yield curve inversion that has typically preceded an economic downturn, some time about 15months in advance. 

SPX immediate technical support level to watch in coming week is 2800 then 2750. SPX is in its 3rd week down in a row. U.S markets will close for a public holiday on Monday.

Among 11 S&P 500 major sectors, Energy(XLE) performed worst, as crude oil suffered their sharpest weekly loss of the year, the Technology(XLK) also lagging. The typically defensive Utilities(XLU) and Health Care(XLV) are outperformed. 

China/HK
Shanghai index recorded its loss in a row for 5th week, as the intensifying U.S-China trade war spilled into the technology sector, after Trump placed telecom leader Huawei on a blacklist, also there are few other companies including Hikvision , the biggest surveillance camera maker will be included. SSE technical support at 2800-2840 gap support area.

HSI is in its 3rd week decline in a row, has given back 50% of its gain this year, immediate support to watch is 27000 level.

Singapore
STI closed at its major support level 3500 which this level has been tested few times in Jan, Mar and now in May again. The index declined for 3-week in a row, given up 60% of its gain this year already.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 17

Summary of content for the week of May 17:

1. Week 20 major indexes performance;
2. Week 20 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S
U.S-China trade worries continued to dominate market sentiment. stocks experienced their worst day of the year on Monday for a 600-point drop in the DJI, following China's announcement over the weekend that it was imposing an additional $60B in tariffs on U.S goods imported to China in retaliation for U.S's $200B tariff hike the previous week. Companies with significant exposure to China were hit hard, including Apple(#AAPL) fell nearly 6% initial. The markets finished out the week only modestly lower. 

There are still hopes of a potential trade deal btw the two countries some time on the road ahead as both sides have incentive to strike a deal. Analysts don't think trade tension is the straw that breaks the bull market's back but recession is. As Exports represent less than 13% of U.S GDP. The U.S economy is far more sensitive to household spending trends, which remain well support by rising wages and low in unemployment. U.S economic data are still relatively strong.

Among S&P 500 major sectors.  Real Estate(XLRE), Utilities(XLU) and Consumer Staples(XLP) outperformed for the week. Financials(XLF) and Industrials(XLI) are two worst sectors, most affected by trade tensions. 

China/HK
China Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) had a volatile week, intitally fell  sharply due to trade war with U.S but recovered amid expectations that more fiscal and monetary stimulus from the government to support the economy. Stocks fell again on Friday due to negative comments from state-run media. There is no signs of immediate rebound from technical perspective. Monitor gap-support level 2800-2840 level which is around its 50% fibonacci level. 

Singapore
STI was the worst performer for the week after HSI, dropped more than 2%, immediate technical support level at 3256-3200 which is its consolidation area before take-off to year-high. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 10

Summary of content for the week of May 10:

1. Week 19 major indexes performance;
2. Week 19 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S
First of all, wish all mums out there a very Happy Mother's Day.

In the face of bad news out, markets failed to go lower, a rally Friday afternoon pulled back the major indexes from their worst weekly declines since late Dec as the U.S-China trade dispute escalated. The U.S. raised tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion in imports from China on Friday May 10, while Donald Trump proposed increasing tariffs to 25% on another $350 billion in imports, that will include all imports from China. In return, China vowed to retaliate. 

The fact markets failed to go lower after initial knee-jerk selloff could be a significant signal, that markets continue to expect the U.S and China to reach a deal at some point, since both sides have incentives to want an agreement. While the fundamental of economics and corporate earnings are still very much intact. The "fear" index VIX spiked to its highest level since late Jan before back down on Friday.

Among S&P 500(SPX) 11 sectors, the typically defensive Consumer Staples(XLP) held up best, Technolgy(XLK) performed the worst, as heavyweight Apple(AAPL) dropped. Industrials( XLI) and Materials(XLB) also weak as investors worried about rising trade barriers. Refer to below sector indexes weekly performance table.

China/HK
HSI and China SSE indexes were the two worst performer this week, lost 5.1% and 4.52% respectively, pushing them near 3-month low. But the SSE index staged a "V" shape rebound on Friday afternoon after U.S officially announced tariffs increase, it's reported Chinese state-owned funds came in to support the markets. While Trump's latest tariff escalation dealt to blow to investor sentiment in the short term, many analysts think it won't have a lasting impact on China's economic fundamentals. Technically, SSE index rebounded up after touched its 50% Fibonacci retracement level from low to high this year, which serves as an important support level to watch(50% fib=2863). 

Singapore
STI posted its biggest weekly decline since Oct 2018, the index major uptrend still intact and immediate technical support level at 3240-3270.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of May 3

Summary of content for the week of May 3:

1. Week 18 major indexes performance;
2. Week 18 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S
U.S three major indexes finished flat to up slightly after a volatile week, plenty of corporate earnings and economic data weighted in the markets. The most-watched US Non-Farm Employment change data released on Friday shows 263k jobs added in Apr, which was higher than expected, this immediately pushed stocks rallied higher and DJI was up by 197 pts-recovered most of its loss early in the week. 

Among 11 major SPX sectors, the Health Care(XLV) and Energy(XLE) lagged as oil prices fell in response to data showing increasing U.S production. Health Care(XLV) and Technology(XLK) are the two sectors are two top pick sectors by analysts. 

China/HK
Mainland China markets were closed from Wed to Fri for the Labor Day holiday, the SSE index edged slightly down after more than 5% loss the prior week. But HK market closed very strong, recovered all loss in prior week and closed above 30000 mark again. 

Singapore
STI added 1.1% this week, lifted up by the three banks. 8th week up in a row, immediate technical resistance at 3450 level.