Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Mar 22- U.S Yield Curve Inverted

Summary of content for the week of Mar 22:

1. Week 12 major indexes performance;
2. Week 12 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S stocks sold off on Friday took the broad SPX index down from 5-month high hit the day before. A plunge in long-term 10-year treasury yield falling below short-term 3-month T-bill yield as investors worried over a potential recession. 

SPX technicals look pretty bearish, as seen from below SPX weekly chart, it had a fake-out weekly candlestick, selloff back below its previous predominant box, this usually means it will continue to test the box bottom level in coming week(s).

Meanwhile, recession in the past have typically came around a year after an inversion occurred. Data from Bianco Research shows that the 3-month/10-year curve has inverted for 10 straight days six or more times in the last 50 years, with a recession following on average, 311 days later.

This week, the Fed signaled low rates and easing monetary conditions by keeping rate unchanged at current level-expecting no new rate hiking this year, stocks responded favorably at first, but soon gave back these gains as the focus turned to what the Fed's pause might mean about the underlying health of economy. Prospect of lower rates are good for real estate(XLRE) sector, which is one of the performers with the SPX index. The financials(XLF) sector was sell-off, as lower rate is no-good for the banks. 

In Asia, China Shanghai Composite Index SSE rose for 2nd week in a row as domestic investors confident that the government would continue to step up easing measures to support its slowing economy. The possible U.S-China trade deal also helped sentiment, as U.S delegates preparing travel to Beijing for next round of talks on Mar 28-29.

Hongkong Hangseng and Singapore STI index are influenced by both China and U.S, both indexes are up this week but to a small extent. HSI rebounded to its 50% Fibonacci retracement level which measures from high in Feb-Nov 2018,  which acts as a major technical resistance level. STI traded much lower to its 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 3300, which it hit Feb 2019 then came down lower till now, refer to its weekly chart as follows.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Mar 15

Summary of content for the week of Mar 15:

1. Week 11 major indexes performance;
2. Week 11 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

US stocks rebounded and not only fully recovered last week's losses but closed new high, had a bullish breakout of its congested box(refer to SPX weekly chart below), which is very bullish. Encouraging economic data and accommodative central banks measures, the China government renewed pledges to support its slowing down economy, while the U.K voted to extend the Brexit deadline. Headlines of Brexit and trade negotiations between U.S and China will persist in coming weeks, but likely to filter the noise.  The SPX next target is to test its all-time high of 2940 before starting its fall last October. 

For the week ended March 15, technology heavy-weighted Nasdaq Composite Index($COMP) added 3.78%, was the top performer in my main indexes watchlist below. COMP weekly chart is very bullish, not only recovered previous week loss but gained more, made it the strongest index among the U.S trio. One key reason for the DJI to lag behind was heavyweight index stock Boeing(BA), BA stock price lost 10.3% to 378.99 after Boeing 737 MAX crashed in Ethiopia.

In Asia, HSI has fully recovered its last week losses as well, the index looks well poised to move up further in the coming week(s). SSE index tested 3100 for the 2nd week and back off down again by profit-taking, still up but may need more time for consolidation around the level. 

STI was the lagger in the week but also shows a bullish sign, ended its 2-week slip and closed just above 3200 mark. Immediate support 3167-3200 area.

For U.S sectors, Technology(XLK) was the strongest one with 4.56% up in the week, heavy-weighted AAPL was buying up. Industrial(XLI) was the only sector closed negative this week with 0.38% down.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Mar 8

Summary of content for the week of Mar 8:

1. Week 10 major indexes performance;
2. Week 10 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

US stocks ended the week lower after bearish hanging man candlestick formed previous week. The SPX reversed down after hitting resistance level 2815, as investors started worrying about the slowing economic growth. several world central banks are easing their stances towards rate hikes or taking new measures to boost their economies. As a result, the USD appreciated against other currencies, s strong dollar viewed as a bearish sign for US stocks. 

SPX closed 1st week down after 10-week up, due to profit-taking and new sellers come in, but it's still very early to decide this round of rebounded is over and the market will go down from now on. I'm still cautiously bullish. Next major technical support level to watch for SPX is 2675-2650. 

Out of 11 SPX sectors, Utilities(XLU) was the best performer with 0.7% up, more money flew into the defensive sectors when market down. and Healthcare(XLV) and Energy(XLE) are the two worst performers for the week each lost 3.8%. 

China stocks ended lower after a very volatile week, it hit weekly high 3129 points and was sell-off hard to 2969 on Friday, as poor Feb trade data and bearish on broker calls on two high-flying financial stocks led investors to lock in gains after the SSE index entered a bull market one week ago. The Weekly candlestick for SSE index looks pretty bearish, there may be more downside due to profit taking coming week. 

STI closed at 3195 technical support level, in its 2nd week down in a row. Immediate major support at 3167 level. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Mar 1

Summary of content for the week of Mar 1:

1. Week 9 major indexes performance;
2. Week 9 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes performance for the month of Feb;
4. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

US stocks finished slightly higher for the week, in a tight range as the market consolidated recent gains. The end of Feb marked the best 2-month start to the year for SPX since 1987, with the index up 11.5%. The U.S. announced to delay the Mar 1 trade deadline for additional tariffs on China from 10% to 25% as negotiations are progressing. Stocks didn't react much to the news as it already priced in, with investors now focused on a trade agreement materializing.

China SSE index entered bull market territory this week after it up over 20% from recent lows-after MSCI announced that it would quadruple the weighting of China shares in its widely used global benchmarks this year, from 5% to 20%. SSE surged 6.8% this week, making the index's biggest weekly gain since 2015.  Major indexes weekly performance as in below table.

Major indexes monthly performance as shown in below table, the SSE index surged up 13.8% in the month of Feb, making it the top gainers among the indexes, reversed from its rank in the bottom last year. 

The SPX looks long term bearish but short term bullish- it formed a hanging man weekly candlestick after 10-week up in a row without any meaningful correction, but its daily chart looks still very bullish with no any signs of bearish reversal. 

Among 11 major sectors, Energy(XLE) was the best sector up 1.05% this week, and Materials(XLB) was the worst sector with 1.43% down. 

Singapore STI was down 1.5% this week by profit-taking, no big selling. Immediate technical support level at 3215, then 3167. Weekly sectors indexes and major indexes weekly charts as shown below.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Feb 22

Summary of content for the week of Feb 22:

1. Week 8 major indexes performance;
2. Week 8 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

US stocks finished higher for the 4th week in a row, markets were guided by very familiar issues for the week, i.e. U.S.- China trade negotiations, Fed policy and released mixed of economic data. The SPX had a very nice "V shape" rebound since its bottom in December, markets have since never looked back again- no any meaningful retracements till what's now--reaching the top at 2815 level where it started to fall before December bottom. 

Major Asia markets had outperforming for the week, Shanghai SSE index gained the most with 4.5% up following by Hong Kong's HSI 3.3%, it's reported more foreign funds flowing into China A shares decisively.

 Among U.S. 11 sectors, Utilities(XLU) was the top gainer with 2.4% up, breakout new high this week. Energy(XLE) was the least performer with 0.5% down.

Singapore STI hit new high this week since Aug 2018. Next major technical resistance at 3340, and major support at 3195 level. Major indexes weekly chart as shown below.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Feb 15

Summary of content for the week of Feb 15:

1. Week 7 major indexes performance;
2. Week 7 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

U.S stocks extended their recent rally for the week, with DJI surged another 443 points on Friday as optimism regarding the U.S.-China talks and an agreement to avert a government shutdown provided investors with enough reasons to increase risk appetite, despite the disappointed latest December retail sales data- falling 1.2% over prior month, the biggest decline since 2009. SPX added 2.5% for the week. U.S markets will close on Monday for President's day holiday. 

 U.S SPY sectors Energy(XLE) was the top performer with 5.05% gain for the week, Utilities(XLU) gained the least with 0.05%, it shows more funds are flowing into risk-on and cyclical sectors.

Over in Asia, Shanghai Composite Index SSE added 2.5% this week, making the biggest gain in three months, hit a 4-month new high. Hong Kong HSI index retreated after hitting six-month new high, was the only index closed negative by profit-taking, expected to continue its rally coming Monday follow Wall Street on Friday. 

Singapore STI index gained 1.2% for the week, closed at new year-high and poised to move higher coming week following U.S. markets rally on Friday, with next target level at 3350. 

Major indexes weekly performance as follow.