Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jan 18

Summary of content for the week of Jan 18:

1. Week 3 major indexes performance;
2. Week 3 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels.

US stocks continued rebound for 4th week in a row, the SPX spiked up 2.9% this week, closed above its Fibonacci 50% level, which means it has recovered more than half of its loss in its recent fall from high of 2940. The markets look more like driven by the expected good result from US-China trade negotiations, so I will still consider the stocks are in rebound mode in downtrend rather than the uptrend, I'd rather monitor and see how low is retreated to when it sells off. 

One notable change is the latest US PMI data for December dropped significant to 54.1 from November's 59.3, indicate slower down in the economy though still above 50 expansion/ contraction mark. We will have its Jan 2019 data in less than 2 weeks time. 

As for the US stocks main sectors, financials( XLF), and Industrials(XLI) led the rebound for this week, with 6.12% and 3.42% up respectively. The least performing sectors are Utilities(XLU) and Consumer Staples(XLP) with -0.17% and 1.59% change. The top and bottom sectors indicate investors turned to risk-on assets.

In Asia, major indexes rebounded in hope that China will have more stimulus measures coming out for its worse than expected economy. Shanghai SSE, HSI and STI added from 1.7% to 0.8%, STI appeared somewhat fatigued after 4-week up in a row. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jan 11

Summary of content for the week of Jan 11:

1. Week 2 major indexes performance;
2. Week 2 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts pf support and resistance levels.

US stocks have recovered all its loss now--3rd week after the panic selloff week which spooked global investors. The recovery has been fast and unexpectedly strong. While this week SPX candlestick looks very bullish and the index certainly wants to go higher coming week, do look out for overhead resistance at 2640--the 50% Fibonacci level for the period from recent high 2940 to low 2346. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance table and charts.

US 11 major sector indexes all went up this week. The industrials (XLI) and Real Estate(XLRE) added the most with 4.17% and 4% respectively; Consumer Staples(XLP) and Utilities(XLU) added the least with 0.72% and 0.87% respectively. Refer to below sector indexes weekly performance.

In Asia, STI and HSI were the top gainers with 4.6% and 4.1% respectively, but SSE looked still in the doldrums, a laggard with 1.6% up this week. STI continue shows resilience and strength, nest major level of resistance is 3260 if it can break out immediate resistance 3200.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jan 4

Summary of Content for the Week of Jan 4:

1. Major indexes performance for the year 2018;

2. SPY sector indexes performance  for the year 2018;

3. Week 1 major indexes performance;

4. Week 1 SPY sector indexes performance;

5. Major indexes weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.

Happy new year 2019. For the past year 2018, all world major stocks indexes suffered losses. US stocks performed relatively better than Asia peers, though the three major indexes all in red, Shanghai SSE index was the worst performer with 24.6% loss. Refer to below major indexes performance table for 2018. Among the 11 major US sectors, Energy(XLE) was the worst performer in 2018--lost 20.63%, as crude oil price plunged. The best sector was Health care(XLV)--gained 4.63%. Refer to below table for US sector performance for 2018.

US stocks rebounded for the 2nd week in a row, ahead of US-China trade talks in the coming week of Jan 7-8. We may see SPX to test its major resistance area 2529 to 2603 where the stocks plunged below year-end. 

In Asia, Shanghai SSE index was seen a bottom-tail hammer on its weekly chart, which is a bullish sign for bottom rebound, the index hit new low and rebound to close at 2-week high, left a spike-down bottom tail. Immediate support is 2500 level. HSI index formed a bullish hammer candlestick on its weekly chart as well. 

STI rebounded from 3000 immediate support level both in two weekly candlesticks, indicate a strong support level that bulls won't want to give up so far. Immediate upside resistance is 3085-3100 area. Refer to weekly major indexes performance and weekly charts below.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 28

Summary of Content for the Week of Dec 28:

1. Week 52 major index performance;
2. Week 52 SPY sector index performance;
3. Major index weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.

US stocks rebounded after three weeks down in a row, but all three major indexes are still underwater YTD return. Understand we are left one more day on Monday to close the year 2018, the big picture is that all three indexes already had their major uptrend broken down and this might be just a rebound before further downside. The first resistance for SPX will be 2530 to 2603 level, if it continues rebound.  

Best performer sectors are Consumer Discretionary(XLY) and Technology(XLK) with gain of  4.48% and 3.72% respectively, Utilities(XLU) down 1.82% this week. 

Gold rebounded and hit 6-month high at 1282.6 this week, an indicator as fretted investors are risk off to safe-haven. Crude Oil closed at 45.34, just above its key support 42 which is the 2017 low, down 45% from its 76.9 hit in Jan 2018. Fear Index VIX closed down at 28.34 after hitting intra-week high of 36.2.

Over in Asia, STI ended the week positive after 3 weeks down, tested 3000 support level and rebounded this week. The congested area between October low 2955 and 3000 is key support level for bulls. 

Both Hang Seng Index(HSI) and Shanghai Index(SSE) closed slightly down but both within their recent "bottom" range, no heavy selling into the year-end holiday season. HSI support area is its October low 24500 to 25000 area and SSE support at the October low 2449 level. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 21

Summary of Content for the Week of Dec 21:

1. Week 51 major index performance;
2. Week 51 SPY sector index performance;
3. Major index weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.

Wall Street ended its worst week in a decade with more bruising losses on Friday, as there are too many uncertainties right now: the partial shut-down on US government, firing of Fed Chairman by Mr. Trump, on-going US-China trade-war talks...

US stocks enter final week of the year on the brink of a bear market, so far DJI was down 17% from its peak, Nasdaq lost 22% and SPX lost 20% respectively from their peak this year. A loss of more than 20% was considered into a bear market. The widely watched market barometer SPX index closed just above its key support level 2400. All three indexes weekly candlesticks broken down their respective recent support levels and look very bearish, poised for further downside.

Of the 11 major SPY sectors, both Materials(XLB) and Utilities(XLU) dropped 5.3% for the week--least among the sectors, and Energy(XLE) dropped the most with 9.63% down. Fear index VIX rose to 30.11, highest since Feb 2018. Crude oil continued diving into new low 45.41-lowest since Jul 2017. 

In Asia, major indexes may catch-up with Walls Street plunge coming week. STI's immediate support 3000, then this year low at 2955; HSI immediate support at 25000 then year low 24500; SSE's immediate support 2500 then year low at 2449 level. 

Major indexes weekly performance and weekly charts as follow.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 14

Summary of Content for the Week of Dec 14:

1. Week 50 major index performance;
2. Week 50 SPY sector index performance;
3. Major index weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.

US stocks plunged on Friday, ended the week all in red, DJI and SPX closed 2.5% and 2.76% underwater YTD, and the tech dominant Nasdaq gave up almost all its gain this year, closed just 0.11% gain YTD, all by this week. 

SPX closed just above its weekly low 2583.23, which was the lowest level since May 2018. SPX closed just marginally below 2600 level at 2599.95. Two important points worth to note: the American Association of Individual Investors(AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey figures and upcoming Fed rate announcement on Wednesday( Thursday 3am Singapore time). "Pessimism spiked to its highest level since Apr 2013"- seen from AAII statement below, the numbers should be read as a contrarian signal-- market often bounce off to the opposite direction when it hit one extreme. As for now, do expect a rebound in the coming week, in other words, we may still get Christmas rally this year- don't give up so early yet. However, if markets to continue drop in coming week(s), the next TP for SPX at 2400 level. 

As for the US major sectors, Financial(XLF) plunged the most with 3.46% loss this week, and the defensive sector Utilities(XLU) was the most gainer with 0.64% up. 

In Asia, HSI was the best performer and the only index closed positive this week, it closed just above its long-term 50% Fibonacci level 25880 level, as seen from below weekly charts. Singapore STI closed just below 50% fib 3085 level, immediate support to watch is 3050, see if it can rebound in coming week. Shanghai SSE has been in almost two-months bottom consolidation.