A Clearer Path into Sep: NVIDIA Delivers, Warsh Warns

For the week of Aug 28, two of the year’s most consequential events landed within 48 hours of each other. U.S. equities finished higher across the major benchmarks as NVIDIA’s results reignited the AI trade, even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole that lifted short-dated yields and revived expectations of a rate hike. China and Hong Kong diverged, with mainland semiconductor and AI-hardware names rallying while Hong Kong lagged on a large Alibaba equity placement and broad internet weakness. Singapore eked out a marginal gain, with shipbuilders and telcos offsetting softness in REITs and Hong Kong-linked constituents.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

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🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. indices closed higher across the majors in a week defined by NVIDIA’s earnings and Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut, though trading volumes were generally light and mid- and smaller-cap benchmarks lost ground. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led with a gain of 0.85%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) at 0.53% and the S&P 500 (SPX) at 0.49%. Declining oil prices and an in-line core PCE reading helped offset a hawkish repricing at the front end of the Treasury curve.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.53%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +0.49%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.85%

August Monthly Performance

August closed with the major U.S. benchmarks still carrying solid year-to-date advances — the Nasdaq Composite up 13.60%, the S&P 500 up 12.65% and the Dow up 11.44% — with the month’s two defining catalysts arriving only in its final week. NVIDIA’s results reaffirmed that AI capital spending continues to accelerate, while Warsh’s Jackson Hole address removed lingering doubt over the Fed’s inflation target and its willingness to act. Investors therefore enter a seasonally weak September with materially more clarity on both the AI growth story and the policy backdrop than they had a month ago.

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Warsh Reaffirms 2% Target, Keeps Hikes Alive 

Warsh struck a hawkish tone on Friday, describing the economy as resilient and financial conditions as not restrictive, while underlying inflation has not improved enough to declare victory. He reaffirmed the 2% PCE target as firm and signalled further tightening remains possible. Futures markets lifted implied odds of a September hike to roughly 60%, from about 35% beforehand.

2️⃣ NVIDIA Delivers a Blowout Quarter and Guide 

Fiscal second-quarter revenue surged 106% year over year, extending a 15-quarter streak of beats, with third-quarter guidance well ahead of expectations. Management projected revenue growth near 70% next year against consensus around 46%, and was explicit that the outlook is supply-constrained — customer demand implies growth closer to 100%. Shares rose 8.7% on Thursday.

3️⃣ Core PCE In Line, Headline Runs Hotter 

The headline PCE price index rose 0.2% in July and 3.7% from a year earlier, both firmer than economists anticipated. Core PCE rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually, matching expectations and limiting the market reaction. Consumer surveys stayed downbeat, with University of Michigan sentiment falling to 51.7 in August from 55.2 in July.

4️⃣ Curve Flattens on Hawkish Repricing 

The two-year Treasury yield rose notably after Warsh’s remarks as investors priced a higher probability of a near-term hike, while 10- and 30-year yields moved up only modestly. Edward Jones argues elevated long yields remain a valuation constraint rather than a threat to the economy or corporate earnings, with the 10-year still below nominal GDP growth.

5️⃣ Labour and Goods Data Stay Firm 

Durable goods orders rose a stronger-than-expected 1.1% in July, driven largely by transportation equipment. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to 203,000, with the four-week moving average stable, suggesting layoffs remain limited. The combination supports Warsh’s characterisation of an economy resilient enough to absorb a firmer policy stance.

6️⃣ September Seasonality Meets a Constructive Backdrop 

September is historically the weakest month for equities, an effect often amplified in midterm election years. Analysts note that past weakness typically arrived when markets were already under pressure — not the case today, with earnings growth fast, credit spreads tight and volatility low. It continues to favour a mix of AI and cyclical exposure.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector leadership tracked the week’s two catalysts closely. Communication Services and Technology led the index higher on the back of NVIDIA’s results and a broader recovery in software, while Financials also outperformed as the front end of the curve repriced. The laggards were defensive and rate-sensitive: Health Care fell furthest, with Industrials, Real Estate and Energy also finishing lower, the latter pressured as Brent settled below $90 amid hopes of restored energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Breadth was narrow — only three of the eleven sectors finished the week in positive territory.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,402.42, both extending modest gains without the decisive breakout that would confirm a fresh leg higher. The Dow ended at 53,559.99, its advance narrower than the headline suggests given weakness across industrial and health care constituents. On the weekly charts, SPX, the Nasdaq and the DJI all remain in sideways consolidation just below their recent highs, though general weekly uptrend well intact for all the three.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weeklychart

- SPX weeklychart

- Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were mixed, with mainland markets proving more resilient than Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 1.20% as semiconductor and AI-related shares rallied strongly midweek following NVIDIA’s results, while the CSI 300 slipped 0.21% and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell 1.63% in local currency terms. Hong Kong lagged as weakness among several large internet and consumer companies earlier in the week outweighed gains in selected technology stocks.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -0.21%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): +1.20%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -1.63%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Alibaba Placement Reopens the AI Returns Debate 

Alibaba’s HKD80 billion (USD10.2 billion) equity placement weighed on Hong Kong technology shares early in the week and renewed scrutiny of the capital required to build AI infrastructure. Completed on Wednesday, proceeds will fund computing capacity, hyperscale data centres and cloud upgrades. Alibaba ended the week down 7.40%.

2️⃣ Domestic AI Ecosystem Turns More Competitive 

Z.AI unveiled its lower-cost GLM-5.3-Flash model, saying it ran entirely on Chinese AI chips during testing, while MiniMax reported first-half revenue up 283% year over year. Alibaba released Qwen3.8-Flash, claiming improved performance at lower training cost. Investors are differentiating sharply between infrastructure beneficiaries and platforms still proving monetisation.

3️⃣ Industrial Profits Slow for a Third Month 

July industrial profit growth eased to 11.2% year over year from 15.1% in June, with the seven-month figure at 17.6% against 18.7% for the first half. Profits in computer, communications and electronic equipment more than doubled year to date, while automobiles and electrical machinery declined — an uneven recovery mirrored in equity leadership.

4️⃣ ChangXin Memory Posts Blowout First Half

ChangXin Memory (688825.SH) reported first-half revenue of RMB150.3 billion, up 873.6%, and attributable profit of RMB77.6 billion against a prior-year loss — well above its IPO prospectus range. Main-business gross margin reached 84.8% as DRAM shortages lifted both prices and volumes. No dividend was proposed.

5️⃣ Second-Quarter Results Favour Tech and Healthcare 

Maybank KE notes more than 60% of MSCI China constituents have reported, with around half beating. Technology and healthcare led growth while consumer staples lagged, underlining still-weak domestic consumption. Large-cap internet results were mixed: cloud, AI and gaming trends held up, but elevated AI capex weighed on free cash flow and near-term earnings expectations.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng closed at 25,584.79, down 1.63% on the week and back into marginally negative territory year to date. Breadth was poor, with losses concentrated in exporters, logistics and consumer names — Shenzhou International, OOIL and Zhongsheng each fell more than 10% — while pharmaceutical and energy names including Hansoh and Sinopec led the gainers. The Shanghai Composite’s close at 3,952.18 leaves the mainland index probing the 4,000 level, and the divergence between the two markets is likely to persist while AI-hardware leadership sits onshore.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weeklychart

- HSI weeklychart

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🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) closed the week up 0.19% at 5,699.93, a marginal gain that masked a sharp split beneath the surface. Shipbuilders, telcos and the exchange advanced, while REITs and Hong Kong-listed constituents sold off. The index remains the region’s standout performer this year, up 22.68% year to date.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +0.19%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Narrow Gain Masks a Two-Speed Market 

The STI’s 0.19% advance rested on a thin base, with just 11 of its 30 constituents closing higher. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding led at +2.94%, followed by Singtel at +2.73%, Wilmar at +2.70% and SGX at +2.49%. A handful of large-cap gains carried an index whose tail was firmly negative.

2️⃣ Banks Contribute Little in Either Direction 

The three local banks barely moved: UOB rose 0.62%, OCBC 0.29% and DBS 0.20%. With no results due, the trio drifted with the global rates backdrop rather than any local catalyst. Year to date the divergence is wide — OCBC is up 57.24%, DBS 35.11% and UOB 16.31%.

3️⃣ REITs Sag as Long Yields Stay Elevated 

Rate-sensitive names were among the week’s weakest. Keppel DC REIT fell 2.65%, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust 1.59%, Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.37% and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT 1.22%, while Mapletree Industrial Trust was unchanged. Almost every S-REIT in the index remains negative year to date.

4️⃣ Hong Kong-Linked Names Drag the Tail 

The steepest declines came from constituents with Hong Kong exposure, tracking the Hang Seng lower: Jardine Matheson fell 4.83%, DFI Retail 3.55% and Hongkong Land 3.19%. UOL dropped 3.87% and Genting Singapore 3.82%, leaving property and gaming among the weakest performers on the week.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The STI’s close at 5,699.93 leaves it sitting right on the 5,700 handle after another week of incremental progress. Momentum has visibly slowed from the pace set earlier in the year, with the index grinding rather than trending. A sustained break above 5,700 would keep the uptrend intact, while failure there points to consolidation into September.

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weeklychart

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📅 Week Ahead (31 Aug – 4 Sep 2026)

The U.S. calendar is dominated by labour data. JOLTS job openings for July land on Tuesday, 1 Sep, ahead of the August employment situation report on Friday, 4 Sep — the first major labour reading since Jackson Hole and a direct input into September rate pricing. ISM’s manufacturing and services surveys also print during the week.

China’s official NBS purchasing managers’ indices for August are due on Monday, 31 Aug, with the Caixin manufacturing gauge following at the start of September. After industrial profit growth slowed for a third consecutive month, the surveys will test whether the gap between AI-linked manufacturing and domestic demand is widening. Hong Kong’s interim results season winds down.

Singapore’s August PMI readings are released early in the week alongside regional manufacturing surveys. With no major local corporate events scheduled, the STI is likely to take its direction from U.S. rate expectations and Hong Kong. Malaysia’s KLCI enters the week on the back foot after slipping 0.61%.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

Friday’s August payrolls report is the week’s single binary risk. Warsh has told markets the Fed still has work to do, and futures now put roughly 60% odds on a September hike; a firm payroll print with a stable unemployment rate would harden that pricing and push front-end yields higher into the 15–16 Sep FOMC. A clear miss would do the opposite. Equity markets, having just repriced higher on NVIDIA’s numbers, are carrying little cushion for a hawkish surprise.

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.