Global equities pushed higher in a holiday-shortened week as cooling U.S. labor data tempered rate-hike fears and risk appetite returned across Asia. In the U.S., the major indices advanced after June payrolls missed expectations, dragging the odds of a July Fed hike sharply lower. Hong Kong staged a powerful rebound from June's slump, led by healthcare, biotech and platform names, while mainland benchmarks were mixed as a global technology-led sell-off hit semiconductor and AI shares. In Singapore, the STI extended its record run, supported by ST Engineering and the banks ahead of early-August results.
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United States
Market Overview
U.S. equities
finished the holiday-shortened week higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJI) gaining +1.97% to 52,900.07, the S&P 500 (SPX) adding +1.76%
to 7,483.24, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rising +2.12% to 25,832.67. Small-
and mid-cap benchmarks lagged and finished lower, and markets were closed on
Friday in observance of Independence Day.
(Refer to
the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)
Index Weekly
Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +1.97%
- S&P 500 (SPX): +1.76%
- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +2.12%
Monthly Performance —
June 2026
June closed on
a mixed note for U.S. equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +2.52%
for the month, while the S&P 500 slipped -1.06% and the Nasdaq Composite
fell -2.81%, reflecting the defensive rotation out of technology that dominated
the back half of the month. Year-to-date, all three benchmarks remain firmly in
positive territory.
(Refer to
the major indices' monthly performance table below.)
Key Highlights and
Outlook
1️⃣ June
Payrolls Miss Marks Softest Print Since February
Nonfarm
payrolls rose just 57,000 in June against expectations of around 110,000, with
April and May both revised lower. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% and
wage growth held at 3.5% YoY — a cooling but not cracking labor market that
keeps the Goldilocks narrative intact.
2️⃣ July
Rate-Hike Odds Slide as Fed Stays Split
The
probability of a July hike fell from roughly 29% to 18% after the payrolls
miss, per CME FedWatch. The June FOMC held rates unanimously, but the committee
remains evenly split between one to two hikes and steady-to-lower rates for
2026, with Chair Kevin Warsh prioritising inflation.
3️⃣ Private
Hiring and Job Openings Send Mixed Signals
ADP reported a
weaker-than-expected 98,000 private payroll gain in June, concentrated in
services and small firms. JOLTS openings, however, rose to 7.594 million in May
— the highest since May 2024 — with hiring and quits rates steady, pointing to
gradual cooling rather than deterioration.
4️⃣ Manufacturing
Expands a Sixth Month; Confidence Subdued
ISM
manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June, missing estimates but marking a sixth
straight month of expansion, with prices paid falling sharply to 73.0. Consumer
confidence printed 91.2, improving slightly, though respondents' assessment of
job availability hit its weakest level in over five years.
5️⃣ Treasury
Yields Back Up Despite Soft Jobs
The 10-year
Treasury yield rose from 4.37% to about 4.49% by Thursday, pressuring bonds and
rate-sensitive equities. Investment-grade credit modestly outperformed
Treasuries with oversubscribed new issues, while high yield sentiment was mixed
— cautious secondary tone offset by resilient primary issuance.
6️⃣ WTI
Slips Below $70 as Hormuz Traffic Recovers
Crude
retreated to pre-conflict levels as U.S.–Iran negotiations progressed and
Strait of Hormuz traffic picked up. Pump prices typically lag crude by four to
eight weeks, so easing gasoline costs into autumn would offer consumers — and
the Fed — welcome relief on headline inflation.
S&P 500 Sectors in
Focus
Rotation into
cyclicals and rate-relief plays defined the week. Financials led the S&P
500 sector table, followed by communication services and consumer
discretionary, with health care not far behind. On the losing side, real
estate, energy and utilities finished lower, while technology slipped modestly
as investors trimmed the year's biggest winners.
(Refer to
the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)
The DJI printed
fresh record highs above 52,900, confirming the leadership rotation toward
value and cyclicals. The SPX is consolidating just below its late-June peak
near 7,500, while the Nasdaq is rebuilding after June's pullback and holding
above 25,500. The path of least resistance remains higher while payroll-driven
rate relief holds, though rising long-end yields are the key technical
headwind.
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Weekly charts:
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China / Hong Kong
Market Overview
Chinese
equities were mixed as a sharp global technology-led sell-off weighed on
mainland semiconductor and AI-related shares, offsetting support from
better-than-expected manufacturing data and improved short-term liquidity. The
CSI 300 fell -0.54%, while the Shanghai Composite (SSE) edged up +0.41% to
4,043.64. Hong Kong outperformed on rotation into non-tech areas, with the Hang
Seng Index (HSI) surging +2.99% to 23,350.03.
Index Weekly
Performance
- CSI 300: -0.54%
- Shanghai Composite (SSE): +0.41%
- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +2.99%
Key Highlights and
Outlook
1️⃣ June
PMIs Point to Resilient Manufacturing Activity
The official
manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 from 50.0, back in expansion on stronger
production, new orders and continued high-tech strength, while the
non-manufacturing gauge edged up to 50.2. The private RatingDog manufacturing
PMI eased slightly to 51.7, underscoring an uneven recovery skewed toward
high-tech and downstream segments.
2️⃣ PBOC
Debuts Overnight Reverse Repos to Smooth Liquidity
The PBOC
launched a new overnight reverse repo tool, injecting CNY 300 billion on Monday
and CNY 600 billion on Tuesday at 1.25%, while the seven-day rate held at 1.4%.
The move supports liquidity-sensitive sentiment but reads as a monetary
framework refinement rather than the start of broad easing.
3️⃣ Healthcare,
Biotech and Platforms Power the HSI Rebound
CSPC Pharma
(+19.58%), Hansoh (+17.59%), Innovent Bio (+16.83%) and WuXi Bio (+13.68%)
topped the constituent table, while BYD (+15.76%), Baidu (+12.30%) and Meituan
(+11.44%) led a broad bounce in beaten-down platforms. Heavyweights Alibaba
(+5.14%) and Tencent (+4.71%) posted more measured gains.
4️⃣ Tech
Hardware Sell-Off Hits Mainland; Banks Lag in HK
The global
technology-led sell-off dragged mainland semiconductor and AI names lower,
pulling the CSI 300 down even as the broader tape rotated into non-tech areas.
In Hong Kong, SMIC (-3.00%), Lenovo (-9.13%) and CITIC (-8.57%) fell, alongside
mainland banks CCB (-5.81%), Bank of China (-4.94%) and ICBC (-2.87%).
5️⃣ Sell-Side
Turns Constructive on Internet Names
Maybank's Dim
Sum Weekly flags improving risk-reward in internet names on light positioning
and a better earnings outlook after a weak 1H26, preferring NetEase (+9.55%)
and Trip.com (+6.23%), and stays constructive on HKEX as a capital-connect
beneficiary. It views the HK IPO lock-up overhang as manageable (~2% of annual
turnover) but recommends profit-taking in Knowledge Atlas ahead of its lock-up
expiry.
Technical Snapshot
The HSI
reclaimed the 23,000 handle with a strong weekly candle after June's -9.14%
slump, though it remains down -8.90% year-to-date; near-term resistance sits
toward 23,800–24,000, with 23,000 now initial support. Mainland action is
diverging, with the SSE holding above 4,000 while the CSI 300 slipped on the
tech unwind. A decisive mainland break higher is needed to confirm the Hong
Kong recovery has legs.
(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)
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Singapore
Market Overview
The Straits
Times Index (STI) rose +1.01% to close at 5,244.29, extending its
record-setting run and lifting year-to-date gains to +12.87%. Advances were led
by ST Engineering and the three banks, offsetting weakness in Sembcorp
Industries and the REITs. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance
tables below.)
Index Weekly
Performance
- Straits
Times Index (STI): +1.01%
Key Highlights and
Outlook
1️⃣ ST
Engineering Extends Its Defence-Led Advance
ST Engineering
(S63) gained +4.23% to $10.85, taking year-to-date gains to +28.86% and
cementing its place among the STI's top performers of 2026. Elevated global
defence spending and a robust order book continue to underpin the re-rating.
2️⃣ Banks
Firm Ahead of Early-August H1 Results
DBS (D05) rose
+2.03%, OCBC (O39) +1.81% and UOB (U11) +1.11% as the trio drifted higher ahead
of H1 results — DBS on 6 Aug and OCBC on 7 Aug, with UOB in the same window.
Focus will turn to NIM resilience, fee momentum and dividend guidance.
3️⃣ Sembcorp
Slumps to the Bottom of the Table
Sembcorp
Industries (U96) tumbled -7.43%, by far the STI's worst performer, dragging its
year-to-date return into negative territory. Keppel (BN4, -1.81%) also
weakened, leaving the industrials-utilities pair as the week's clear laggards.
4️⃣ REITs
Soften as U.S. Yields Back Up
CapitaLand
Ascendas REIT (A17U) fell -1.97% and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (J69U) -1.75%,
with most Mapletree vehicles flat to lower. The backup in the 10-year Treasury
yield weighed on the rate-sensitive S-REIT complex, capping the STI's overall
advance.
(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)
Technical Snapshot
The STI closed
at a fresh record 5,244, holding comfortably above the 5,200 breakout level.
Initial support sits at 5,150, then the 5,000 psychological zone, with momentum
elevated but not yet at extremes. The uptrend remains intact while the index
holds above 5,150.
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Weekly charts:
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Week Ahead
(6–10 Jul 2026)
In the U.S.,
minutes of the June FOMC meeting headline the calendar, with markets parsing
the committee's even split for the balance of hike risk into the July decision.
Jobless claims and Fed speakers will refine the post-payrolls rate path, while
positioning builds ahead of the Q2 earnings season that kicks off with the big
banks the following week.
In China and
Hong Kong, June CPI and PPI plus the Caixin services PMI will test whether the
mainland economy is stabilising. Follow-through in the healthcare and platform
rally, alongside southbound flows via Stock Connect, will indicate whether the
HSI rebound has legs.
In Singapore,
attention turns to the advance Q2 GDP estimate due mid-month and regional trade
data. With the STI at records and bank results approaching, watch whether
S-REIT weakness deepens if U.S. yields continue to climb.
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Overarching Watchpoint
The June FOMC
minutes are the week's key binary risk. A hawkish read on the committee's even
split could reprice July hike odds sharply higher, lifting yields and
pressuring the rate-relief rally — particularly rate-sensitive S-REITs and the
fragile Hong Kong rebound.
Source:
Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.
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