LATEST: As of April 19, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has re-closed to commercial shipping, reversing a brief temporary reopening announced on April 17. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reimposed the closure in response to an ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Global equity markets closed out a third
consecutive week of gains as Iran's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz was
fully open for commercial shipping swept away the stagflation fears that had
gripped markets since early April. U.S. indexes surged to fresh all-time highs,
led by a Nasdaq on its longest winning streak since 1992, as AI-linked
technology names and strong bank earnings powered the advance. China and Hong
Kong posted more measured gains following a better-than-expected Q1 GDP print,
though uneven domestic demand kept the rally contained. Singapore's STI ended
the week broadly flat, consolidating within striking distance of the 5,000
level.
πΊπΈ
United States
Market Overview
U.S. equities extended their gains for a
third straight week, with several major indexes finishing at record highs as
Middle East de-escalation, strong bank earnings, and softer wholesale inflation
supported risk appetite. The Nasdaq Composite rose for a 13th consecutive
session on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Dow also pushed to new highs.
(Refer to the major indices’ weekly
performance tables below.)
Major Indices – Weekly Performance
· Dow Jones: +3.19%
· S&P 500: +4.54%
· Nasdaq Composite: +6.84%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ Strait of Hormuz reopens,
risk appetite surges
Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to commercial shipping, easing
supply disruption fears and sending crude sharply lower on Friday. The move
boosted travel and leisure stocks while weighing on energy names, and helped
markets rotate back into cyclicals and growth.
2️⃣ Bank earnings
reinforce a resilient economic backdrop
Major U.S. banks beat expectations, led by JPMorgan’s $5.94 EPS and Goldman
Sachs’ strong investment banking revenue and fees. Management commentary
pointed to healthy consumer and corporate activity despite softer survey
sentiment.
3️⃣ Earnings growth
remains firmly positive
With a modest share of S&P 500 companies reported, blended Q1 earnings
growth remains solid and the beat rate is running above historical averages.
Technology is still the standout, and full-year 2026 earnings expectations
continue to support the bull case.
4️⃣ Inflation
data stayed market-friendly
March PPI came in softer than expected,
helping ease rate fears, while jobless claims remained low and regional
manufacturing surveys improved. Input-cost pressures are still present, but the
data mix was broadly supportive for equities.
5️⃣ Housing remains the weak
spot
Existing home sales were softer in
March, and the April housing sentiment survey slipped again, showing that high
mortgage rates continue to constrain activity. A clearer housing recovery still
depends on lower rates and more durable easing from the Fed.
6️⃣ Tax refunds help cushion
consumers
Household cash flow should remain
supported by tax refund season, which can help offset some of the hit from
higher fuel costs. That helps explain why actual spending has held up better
than survey sentiment in recent weeks.
S&P 500 Sectors in Focus
Energy led to the downside as WTI
cratered on the Strait of Hormuz news — APA Corp., Valero, Occidental, Exxon,
and Chevron each fell between 4% and 9%. Travel and leisure were standout
gainers, with Royal Caribbean, United Airlines, and Expedia surging 5–10%.
Technology extended multi-week leadership, though Netflix dropped 10% after Q2
guidance disappointed despite a Q1 beat. Financials outperformed on strong bank
results; healthcare lagged amid energy-related downward EPS revisions.
(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly
performance table below.)
Technical Snapshot
The S&P 500 closed at 7,126 — above
all major moving averages and at a new all-time high — completing one of the
fastest correction-to-record-high rebounds on record (11 trading days). The VIX
eased to 17.48, reflecting meaningfully improved risk appetite. However, market
breadth remains a caution flag: just 56.7% of S&P 500 members trade above
their 200-day SMAs, below January highs, suggesting the rally remains
top-heavy. The 10-year Treasury yield settled near 4.23%, and the
market-implied probability of a December 2026 Fed cut rose to 66% from 26%.
π Weekly charts:
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China / Hong Kong
Market Overview
China and Hong Kong ended the week with
modest gains as stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP provided support, though softer
consumption and property data kept enthusiasm contained. The CSI 300, Shanghai
Composite, and Hang Seng all moved higher, but the move was more of a relief
rally than a breakout. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index rose 1.99%, the
Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) gained 1.64%, and the Hang Seng Index advanced
1.03% for the week.
·
CSI 300: +1.99%
· Shanghai Composite: +1.64%
· Hang Seng Index: +1.03%
Key Highlights and outlook
1️⃣ Q1 2026 GDP beats
expectations at 5.0%
China’s economy grew 5.0% year on year in Q1, slightly above expectations and
ahead of Q4’s pace. The headline was constructive, but the composition was
uneven, with industrial production stronger than retail demand.
2️⃣ PPI turns positive for first
time in three years
Producer price data improved and suggested some easing in deflationary
pressure. That is supportive for cyclical and reflation-sensitive sectors, but
it does not yet signal a broad demand recovery. Rising commodity prices, partly
driven by geopolitical tensions, support reflation-linked sectors — energy,
materials, and financials. Structurally, the market remains constructive on
China's energy transition, with HSBC, CATL-H, Zijin Mining, and PetroChina
cited as top regional picks.
3️⃣ Export growth slowed sharply
in March
March exports cooled markedly from the
strong start to the year, highlighting the drag from weaker external demand and
tariff-related disruption. Imports were firmer, but the trade data still points
to a less favorable Q2 backdrop.
4️⃣ Credit and investment
remain soft
Bank lending improved in March, but
private demand stayed cautious and property investment remained a drag. The
data still point to a fragile domestic rebound rather than a self-sustaining
expansion.
5️⃣ Hong Kong tourism improved
Tourist arrivals in Hong Kong rose 14%
YoY in March, boosted by major cultural events including Art Basel, providing a
lift to retail, hospitality, and broader services activity. The recovery
supports a cautiously constructive stance on Hong Kong-listed consumer and
hospitality names, and signals improving momentum in the city's services sector
alongside continued Greater Bay Area development tailwinds.
Technical Snapshot
The Hang Seng finished near 26,160, still below its January
highs and stuck in consolidation. The CSI 300’s move was positive but lacked
strong breakout momentum, so investors are still waiting for clearer policy
follow-through and stronger domestic demand.
(Refer to the Hang Seng Index
constituents’ weekly performance table below.)
πΈπ¬
Singapore
Market Overview
The STI ended the week essentially flat
near 4,998, consolidating just below the 5,000 level. That was broadly in line
with its sector mix and the market’s cautious stance toward rates, oil, and
regional risk.
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ STI holds near 5,000
Singapore equities paused after recent
gains, with financials and industrials helping offset weakness in
rate-sensitive names. The index remains constructive, but buyers are waiting
for a cleaner catalyst before pushing through 5,000 decisively.
2️⃣ Lower oil prices help the Singapore
economy
The drop in crude prices is a clear net positive for an oil-importing economy like Singapore. It should help ease cost pressure across transport, logistics, aviation, and consumer sectors if the decline holds.
3️⃣ AI spillover remains
selective
The global AI rally continues to benefit
a narrow set of Singapore-listed names tied to data centers, connectivity, and
precision engineering. The spillover is real, but still much smaller than in
the U.S. mega-cap complex.
4️⃣ S-REITs benefit from lower
rate expectations
The likelihood of a December 2026 Fed
cut rose to 66% from 26% this week — incrementally supportive for S-REIT
valuations and distribution sustainability. The sector remains sensitive to any
shift in the Fed's rate path, and the April 29 FOMC decision will be closely
watched for concrete guidance on the pace of potential easing and its
implications for Singapore dollar interest rates.
Technical Snapshot
The STI is still in a constructive
medium-term uptrend, with support holding in the recent pullback zone. A clean
break above 5,000 would be the next important technical signal, while oil,
rates, and global risk appetite remain the main near-term drivers.
(Refer to the STI weekly performance
table below.)
π Weekly chart:
π
Week Ahead (20–24 April 2026)
The main focus is mega-cap technology earnings, led by Tesla.
Markets will use those results to test whether the AI-led rally is being
supported by actual earnings delivery. The other key event is the Fed-related
policy backdrop, including the Kevin Warsh hearing and the market’s run-up to
the April 29 FOMC decision. On the data side, durable goods and weekly jobless
claims will be watched for confirmation that growth is holding up while
inflation pressures stay contained.
Tuesday, 21 Apr — Core Retail Sales, Earnings: 3M, IBKR
Wednesday, 22 Apr — Tesla Q1 2026 earnings (after
close): Delivery volumes, auto gross margins, and any robotaxi timeline
update will be the primary focus. Kevin Warsh Senate Banking Committee
hearing: Warsh's tone on central bank independence and rate policy could
move rates markets. IBM, BA, NOW
China: No major scheduled data releases for the week
of April 20. Markets will monitor PBOC commentary and any fiscal stimulus
signals in light of the Q1 GDP release's mixed consumption and property data.
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