For the week ended Apr 10, 2026, global equity markets extended their recovery for a second consecutive week. A two-week U.S.-Iran-Israel ceasefire framework, announced on April 7–8 and mediated by Pakistan, triggered oil's steepest single-day decline since 2020, lifting risk appetite broadly. In the U.S., all three major indexes gained over 3%, led by the Nasdaq Composite's 4.68% surge—fuelled by AI enthusiasm and tech strength—while the S&P 500 climbed nearly 8% above its mid-March trough. China and Hong Kong staged one of their strongest weeks of the year (Shanghai Composite +2.74%, Hang Seng +3.09%) as easing geopolitical fears and positive PPI data bolstered sentiment. Singapore's STI added to the relief rally, closing at 4,989.41, though the April 21 ceasefire deadline kept investors cautious.
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United States
Market Overview
All three major U.S. indexes delivered
solid gains for the second straight week. The Nasdaq Composite led with a 4.68%
advance—its strongest showing in weeks—driven by AI, semiconductor demand, new
model launches, and infrastructure spending. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both
gained over 3%, buoyed by the ceasefire announcement that drove oil's sharpest
single-day decline since 2020 on Wednesday, easing inflation and corporate
margin fears. U.S. Treasuries also generated positive returns.
(Refer to the major indices’ weekly
performance tables below.)
Major Indices – Weekly Performance
· Dow Jones: +3.04%
· S&P 500: +3.56%
· Nasdaq Composite: +4.68%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ Ceasefire deal sparks oil's
sharpest drop since 2020
The two-week ceasefire (contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz)
triggered WTI's −16.3% drop (to $94.41) and Brent's −13.3% decline (to $94.75),
the steepest since April 2020. Energy stocks fell, but inflation fears eased.
Strait traffic remains limited, and Trump warned of renewed strikes if
negotiations fail by April 21.
2️⃣ CPI accelerates sharply in
March; inflation front and centre
CPI rose 3.3% YoY in March (fastest since May 2024), up from February's 2.4%,
with gasoline accounting for nearly 75% of the increase. Core CPI rose 2.6%
(vs. 2.5% prior). Core PCE (Fed's preferred measure) was 3.0% YoY in February,
down marginally from 3.1%.
3️⃣ GDP revised lower; personal
income slips
Q4 2025 real GDP was revised down to 0.5% annualized (from 0.7%), reflecting
weaker investment. Personal income fell 0.1% in February, reversing January's
+0.4% gain. Personal spending grew at just 0.7% annualized over Jan–Feb,
signaling a weak Q2 for U.S. consumers.
4️⃣Services PMI dips but stays in
expansion; prices jump
ISM Services PMI slipped to 54 in March
(from 56.1), below consensus of 55, but marked the 21st consecutive month in
expansion. The prices paid sub-index hit its highest level since October 2022
as oil/fuel costs fed through to service prices.
5️⃣ Consumer sentiment sinks;
inflation expectations spike
University of Michigan's April Consumer
Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 (−5.7 pts from March), the lowest in recent
memory. One-year inflation expectations jumped 1 pp to 4.8%, keeping the Fed
focused on inflation despite softening growth.
6️⃣Fed: rate cut expectations
cautiously reviving
Markets had priced out all cuts at the
Iran crisis peak but now tentatively price one cut by year-end as oil
moderates. The Fed's next move depends entirely on oil price trajectory and
whether the ceasefire durably eases energy pressures.
S&P 500 Sectors in Focus
Energy (XLE) was the sole loser amid
oil's decline; all 10 other sectors gained. Top performers were Information
Technology (XLK), Industrials (XLI), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), driven
by rising consumer confidence and AI momentum. The rotation into growth
underscores how oil-sensitive equity markets remain: what hurts energy lifts
nearly everything else.
(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly
performance table below.)
Technical Snapshot
All three major indexes reclaimed almost all YTD losses after two weeks of rebounds, though YTD returns remain negative. The S&P 500 has reclaimed ~8% from its mid-March trough. Watch the Year-End-Close (YEC) levels on their weekly charts.
π Weekly charts:
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China / Hong Kong
Market Overview
Chinese and Hong Kong equities staged
one of their strongest weekly performances of the year, as the ceasefire-driven
drop in oil prices and positive factory gate data combined to fuel a broad
relief rally. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index rallied 4.41%, the Shanghai
Composite Index(SSE) advanced 2.74%, and the Hang Seng Index added 3.09% for
the week (mainland closed Monday for Qingming; HK
closed Monday–Tuesday for Easter). Despite the compressed week, gains were
meaningful across the board.
· CSI 300: +4.41%
· Shanghai Composite: +2.74%
· Hang Seng Index: +3.09%
Key Highlights and outlook
1️⃣ PPI turns positive for first
time in over three years
China's PPI rose 0.5% YoY in March, ending 41 months of factory gate deflation.
The rebound reflects higher commodity/energy prices from the Iran conflict
rather than strong demand. CPI rose 1.0% YoY (easing from February's 1.3%) as
seasonal demand normalized post-Chinese New Year.
2️⃣ CSRC tightens short-term
trading rules for major shareholders
New rules prohibit shareholders holding 5%+ (including foreign investors,
executives, and family) from buying/selling the same stock within six months.
Coverage expanded to equities, depositary receipts, and convertible bonds to
improve market integrity and reduce large-holder-driven volatility.
3️⃣ Xi meets KMT leader in rare
Beijing summit
President Xi hosted KMT chairperson
Cheng Li-wun—the first such meeting since 2016. Xi called Taiwan's unification
a "historical inevitability," amid heightened PLA exercises after DPP
President Lai's election and ahead of Trump's mid-May Beijing visit.
4️⃣ Sector bright spots: miners,
non-ferrous metals, and EV automakers outperform
Miners and non-ferrous metals led as
commodity prices rose; EV makers (BYD, Geely, Great Wall Motor) advanced on
strong March sales. Hong Kong announced a HKD 3/litre diesel subsidy and 50%
tunnel toll cuts (HKD 1.8B cost) to cushion fuel costs. China Vanke's 40%
upfront bond payment offer and CK Hutchison's Panama–Maersk arbitration
underscore ongoing property and geopolitical risks.
5️⃣ Ceasefire relief lifts Asian
energy importers
China, India, Japan, and South Korea
account for ~75% of Hormuz oil exports; the ceasefire's oil price drop reduces
import costs and eases inflation pressure. Market sentiment improved, but the
April 21 deadline remains the key variable for the region's near-term
direction.
(Refer to the Hang Seng Index
constituents’ weekly performance table below.)
π Weekly charts:
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Singapore
Market Overview
Singapore equities joined the global
risk-on rally, supported by the oil price decline and improved geopolitical
sentiment. As a key regional refining and energy transit hub, Singapore's
market is acutely sensitive to oil swings. The STI tested 5,000 intra-week and
closed at 4,989.41.
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ AI infrastructure capex surge — a
structural tailwind for Singapore
Global AI infrastructure spending now
tracks toward US$700B (+US$260B vs. prior estimates), with semiconductor
equipment spending up 30%. Singapore benefits via its data centre ecosystem,
data centre REITs, and tech-adjacent STI names.
2️⃣ Defence spending ramp-up opens new
thematic opportunities
NATO members are committing to 3.5% of
GDP defence spending (from 2.4%), creating medium-term opportunities for
Singapore-listed industrials, aerospace, and defence firms with Western allied
procurement exposure.
3️⃣ Energy as national security —
Singapore's hub role reinforced
Energy security is now a national
security priority post-Iran conflict, reinforcing Singapore's strategic role as
a regional energy trading, refining, and storage hub, supporting energy
infrastructure and commodity trading houses on SGX.
4️⃣ Middle East rebuilding cycle — a
long-duration opportunity
Post-conflict Middle East reconstruction
is estimated at US$200B over coming years. Singapore engineering, construction,
infrastructure firms, and banks with regional project finance exposure stand to
benefit from this multi-year capital deployment cycle.
5️⃣ Banks 4Q25 review: margin squeeze
offset by fee income; sector rated Neutral
NIMs contracted across all three banks:
OCBC −29bps to 1.86%, DBS −22bps to 1.93%, UOB −16bps to 1.84%. Fee income rose
10–16%. OCBC was the only bank with YoY PATMI growth (+3% to S$1,745M); DBS
fell −10% to S$2,358M, UOB −7% to S$1,410M. Sector rated Neutral near-term;
dividend yields remain attractive at 4.4–5.7% (FY26e).
6️⃣ DBS in focus — the dividend
compounding story
DBS is the only Singapore bank with no
dividend payout cap. Analysts project a 24-cent/year step-up through FY2027e,
implying 6.1% yield by FY27 (vs. OCBC 4.4%, UOB 4.5%). FY26e yield is 5.7%. DBS
carries an Accumulate rating with a S$60 target, supported by dividend growth
visibility.
Technical Snapshot
STI closes above all major MAs but
consolidates within its four-week price range. Uptrend remains intact.
(Refer to the STI weekly performance
table below.)
π Weekly chart:
π
Week Ahead (13–17 April 2026)
· Mon: Existing Home Sales + Goldman Sachs kicks off earnings
· Tue: PPI (March) π — pipeline inflation read after hot CPI; + JPMorgan, Citi, WFC, BlackRock, JNJ
· Overarching watchpoint — April 21 ceasefire deadline called out as the single biggest market binary event of the fortnight, cutting across all markets.
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