Global equity markets broadly held their nerve this week as a U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension and a historic semiconductor surge powered Wall Street to fresh record highs, even as the Dow lagged on industrial and software weakness. Chinese mainland markets held steady on the back of firm Q1 GDP data and an 11th consecutive PBOC rate hold, while Hong Kong slipped modestly as geopolitical caution kept Hang Seng sentiment in check. Singapore's STI pulled back from the psychologically significant 5,000 level, weighed by a stronger Singapore dollar following MAS's earlier tightening, though the market retained its safe-haven edge amid continued Middle East uncertainty.
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United States
Market Overview
The S&P 500(SPX) and Nasdaq
Composite(COMP) both closed at record highs this week, driven by a ceasefire
extension between the U.S. and Iran, a blowout earnings season, and the most
explosive semiconductor rally in years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI)
bucked the trend, slipping on weakness in select industrials and pharma names,
while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX) extended its winning streak to
18 consecutive sessions and is up approximately 50% in April alone.
(Refer to the major indices’ weekly
performance tables below.)
Major Indices – Weekly Performance
· Dow Jones: -0.44%
· S&P 500: +0.55%
· Nasdaq Composite: +1.50%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ Semis Steal the Week: Intel
Surges to All-Time Record
Intel jumped approximately 25% to a historic high after first-quarter results
sharply beat consensus on both earnings and revenue, with data centre and AI
revenue up 22% year on year. AMD climbed 12% in sympathy; Arm Holdings, ASML,
and TSMC each rallied 3.5% or more. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is now
up roughly 50% in April—one of the strongest monthly moves in its history.
2️⃣ Earnings Running Hot:
80%+ Beat Rate with 15.1% EPS Growth
With about a quarter of S&P 500 companies having reported, over 80% beat
both EPS and revenue estimates. The blended year-on-year earnings growth rate
sits at 15.1%—on pace for a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
Strength is concentrated in technology, but consumer staples and energy results
have also held up better than feared given oil price pressures.
3️⃣ Retail Sales Jump
1.7%: Consumers Holding Firm
March retail sales rose 1.7%, the strongest monthly gain since early 2023, led
by a 15.5% surge at gas stations. Excluding gas, sales still rose a healthy
0.6%. The control group measure—the one that feeds directly into GDP—was up
0.7%, and prior months were revised higher. The picture is of a consumer that
is spending, not retreating, despite higher pump prices.
4️⃣ Flash PMI at
52.0: Growth, but Inflation Biting
S&P Global's April Flash Composite PMI rebounded to a three-month high of 52.0, with manufacturing reaching a near four-year high. The catch: output prices rose at their fastest pace since mid-2022. Services demand remained subdued, with new business growth near two-year lows. The economy is growing, but the inflation side of that equation is getting harder to ignore.
5️⃣ Powell's Probable Last
Meeting; Warsh Path Clears
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at coming week's FOMC meeting (Apr 28-29). Chair Powell will likely reiterate significant uncertainty rather than signal any imminent moves. The bigger story is the path clearing for Kevin Warsh as nominee for Fed chair, after the Justice Department dropped its investigation into Powell. Markets have already begun pricing in a slightly more dovish Fed under Warsh—rate cut expectations for late 2026 firmed.
6️⃣ Consumer Sentiment Soft;
Inflation Expectations Climb
The University of Michigan's April
Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.8—a 3.5-point drop from March—though the
reading beat its preliminary estimate after the ceasefire announcement provided
some mid-month relief. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.7% from
3.8%, and long-run expectations hit 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. The
gap between resilient spending data and deteriorating sentiment is one of the
more peculiar macro features of this environment.
S&P 500 Sectors in Focus
Semiconductors led by a wide margin,
with AI infrastructure spending narratives driving continued earnings upgrades
across the chip complex. Technology overall was the week's standout, though
software saw turbulence after IBM and ServiceNow missed expectations, ending an
eight-session winning streak for the sub-sector. Consumer staples held up
defensively. Industrial names softened on mixed outlooks. Energy remained in
focus—Brent crude near $95/barrel with the Strait of Hormuz still closed keeps
the sector in the spotlight heading into big-name earnings.
(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly
performance table below.)
Technical Snapshot
The S&P 500 reclaimed all of its
Iran-conflict losses and closed at a new record; RSI is approaching 65, leaving
upside momentum intact but room narrowing. Support sits in the 6,900–7,000
zone, with prior highs now acting as a floor. The Nasdaq's MACD remains firmly
bullish off the back of the semiconductor surge; the 25,000 level is the next
resistance to watch. The Dow remains range-bound between 48,000 and 50,000,
lagging the broader rally as software and industrial weakness drags.
π Weekly charts:
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China / Hong Kong
Market Overview
Mainland Chinese equities consolidated
quietly this week, as investors absorbed last week's strong Q1 GDP print (+5.0%
year on year) in the absence of major new domestic catalysts. The blue chip
benchmark CSI 300 Index edged up 0.86%, the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added
0.7%, and the Hang Seng Index declined 0.7% for the week, as continued
geopolitical caution weighed even as Stock Connect southbound flows remained
elevated and H-share tech leaders attracted strong global capital interest.
·
CSI 300: +0.86%
· Shanghai Composite: +0.7%
· Hang Seng Index: -0.7%
Key Highlights and outlook
1️⃣ PBOC Holds for the
11th Consecutive Month
The People’s Bank of China kept the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR
at 3.5%, matching expectations. With Q1 growth at 5.0%, policymakers appear
content to wait and assess the impact of external shocks before easing further.
2️⃣ Xi Calls for Hormuz
Reopening in Saudi Outreach
President Xi Jinping called for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire
between the U.S., Israel, and Iran—and specifically for the Strait of Hormuz to
reopen—in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The move
signals Beijing's significant economic stake in resolving the energy disruption
and its intent to position itself as a credible diplomatic broker, adding a
geopolitical dimension to China's market narrative.
3️⃣ DeepSeek V4 Raises the
Open-Source AI Bar
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek rolled out preview versions of its V4 Flash and V4 Pro series this week, adapted specifically for Huawei Ascend chip technology. Benchmark scores lead all open-source models, and the models feature a 1-million-token context window enabling entire codebases to be processed in a single prompt. The launch is another concrete milestone in China's semiconductor and AI self-sufficiency drive—and adds fuel to the SMIC thesis.
4️⃣ HK Labour Market Improves;
Financial Sector Overtakes Manufacturing
Hong Kong's jobless rate dipped for a
second consecutive period, reflecting a labour market that is grinding higher
despite the geopolitical backdrop. On the mainland, financial sector activity
gained momentum, overtaking manufacturing growth as a buoyant IPO market took
hold. Southbound Stock Connect flows remained elevated, with global capital
continuing to favour H-share hardware and technology names over broader index
exposure.
5️⃣ Hong Kong top picks remain
defensive with structural tailwinds
Broker interest continues to favor names
with quality earnings and long-duration themes. China Life, China Tower, SMIC,
and ANTA Sports remain among the cleaner ways to express the current mix of
defensiveness and domestic-tech exposure.(MSSG HK Research)
Technical Snapshot
4,000 on the SSE Composite serving as a key support level.
The Hang Seng Index has been in a sideway consolidation range between around 27,200-25,000.
(Refer to the Hang Seng Index
constituents’ weekly performance table below.)
π Weekly charts:
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Singapore
Market Overview
The Straits Times Index retreated 1.50%
this week, slipping from the 5,000-area to close around 4,922, as a firmer
Singapore dollar following MAS's April tightening and softer sequential GDP
data dampened near-term sentiment. Despite the pullback, Singapore equities
retained relative appeal—safe-haven inflows from Middle East-based clients
continued flowing into local banks and private banking platforms, providing a
cushion beneath the headline weakness.
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ MAS tightening continues to work
through markets
MAS’s April policy move, which raised
the slope of the S$NEER band, is still being absorbed by the market. It
supports the inflation outlook, but a firmer Singapore dollar is a headwind for
exporters and regionally exposed earnings.
2️⃣ Q1 GDP: Solid Year-on-Year, Soft
Sequentially
Singapore's advance Q1 2026 GDP estimate showed 4.6% growth year on year, underpinned by manufacturing and AI-linked services clusters. However, the economy contracted 0.3% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis—an expected moderation after Q4's strong performance but still softer than some hoped. MTI will provide an updated full-year growth forecast in May; the current 2%–4% range is under review given ongoing Strait of Hormuz uncertainty.
3️⃣ Safe-haven
flows still support banks
Geopolitical uncertainty continues to reinforce Singapore’s appeal as a financial hub. That has helped support bank inflows and private banking activity, even as net interest margins remain under some pressure.
4️⃣ REITs and Infrastructure
Names See Selective Accumulation
With bond yields easing from recent peaks, rate-sensitive sectors got some relief this week. Data centre-focused REITs and logistics trusts attracted selective buying interest. Sembcorp Industries and CapitaLand Investment also drew attention as infrastructure plays with sustained exposure to the AI capex cycle and a government pipeline of public construction investment supporting activity.
5️⃣Banks Q1 2026 Preview:
Earnings Season Opens April 30
Singapore's bank earnings season kicks off with DBS
reporting on 30 April, followed by UOB on 7 May and OCBC on 8 May. Analysts
expect DBS Q1 net profit of approximately S$2.83 billion—down modestly year on
year but up sharply from Q4 2025—as elevated market volatility, strong wealth
management inflows, and treasury activity help offset any NIM compression. All
three banks are expected to show better-than-feared fee income; dividend
outlooks will be the key focus for income investors.
Technical Snapshot
The STI’s pullback has brought it back
toward near-term support, but the medium-term trend remains intact. A move back
above 5,000 would likely need either better bank results or a calmer external
backdrop
(Refer to the STI weekly performance
table below.)
π Weekly chart:
π
Week Ahead (27 Apr–1 May 2026)
The key event is the FOMC decision on Wednesday, followed by
the April PCE inflation print and U.S. ISM manufacturing on Friday. Markets
will also watch the next round of mega-cap earnings and any fresh guidance
around rates, inflation, and AI capex.
For China, the main focus is the April PMI, while Hong Kong
and mainland markets are closed for Labour Day later in the week. In Singapore,
DBS kicks off bank earnings on 30 April, making financials the most important
local catalyst.
π️ Overarching Watchpoint The FOMC meeting on Wednesday is the week's biggest binary. A hold is priced in—but any tilt toward more explicit rate cut guidance, or a more hawkish read on inflation, could reset risk appetite materially heading into May.
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