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For the week ended Mar 27, 2026, Markets
closed out a fifth consecutive week of losses across major U.S. benchmarks, as
investors navigated a relentless cycle of ceasefire optimism and geopolitical
disappointment tied to the ongoing Iran conflict. In China and Hong Kong,
equities retreated modestly — Middle East-driven energy cost pressures reframed
earnings risk across key sectors, though the prospect of a Trump-Xi summit in
May offered a sliver of diplomatic hope. Singapore's STI held up with relative
resilience, closing around 4,898 on Friday, as oil-linked sectors and the three
local banks provided ballast against the broader global risk-off headwinds.
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United States
Market Overview
U.S. equity markets logged a fifth
straight weekly decline as the Iran conflict kept energy prices elevated and
sentiment fragile. The week opened with optimism on ceasefire reports, but
faded as Washington, Jerusalem and Tehran remained far apart on any deal. The
S&P 500(SPX), Dow(DJI) and Nasdaq(COMP) all finished lower, while large-cap
value outperformed growth for a third consecutive week.
(Refer to the major indices’ weekly
performance tables below.)
Major Indices – Weekly Performance
· Dow Jones: -0.9%
· S&P 500: -2.12%
· Nasdaq Composite: -3.23%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ Business activity slows,
prices spike
S&P Global's Flash Composite PMI fell to an 11-month low of 51.4 in March,
driven by weaker services activity. Input costs rose at the fastest pace in 10
months, with firms directly attributing the squeeze to Middle East-driven
energy prices — and passing them through at the fastest rate since 2022.
2️⃣ Labour holds; consumer
confidence cracks
Initial jobless claims held steady at 210,000 for the week ended 21 March.
However, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment dropped to 53.3 from 56.6 in
February, with one-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.8% — the sharpest
monthly rise since April 2025.
3️⃣ Inflation trajectory
worsening near-term
With U.S. gasoline prices near $4/gallon (up from $2.80 at year-start),
headline CPI is on track to spike toward 3.5% year-on-year. Energy alone
accounts for ~3% of the CPI basket, with second-round effects through airfares,
food and utilities amplifying the move — though the spike is expected to fade
gradually in H2 2026.
4️⃣Fed tightrope; rate hike bets
creep in
The 10-year Treasury has risen nearly 50
basis points in March. Markets are now pricing a small but real probability of
a Fed rate hike this year — a scenario that seemed remote just two months ago.
The Fed has maintained a balanced stance, with most FOMC members still
projecting a cut in 2026, but the bar is rising with each week of elevated oil.
5️⃣ Outlook: Payrolls the key test
Consensus expects ~51,000 jobs added in
March, unemployment unchanged. A solid print would ease fragility fears after
February's weak report; a miss would amplify downside risks considerably.
S&P 500 Sectors in Focus
Four out of the 11 SPX sectors closed
positive for the week. Energy(XLE), Utilities(XLU) and Consumer Staples(XLP) —
classic defensive and inflationary-hedge plays — continued to outperform, while
Technology(XLK) and Communication Services(XLC) lagged under rate sensitivity
and mega-cap growth pressure. Breadth was modestly better than headlines
suggested, with mid and small-caps showing tentative stabilisation.
(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly
performance table below.)
Technical Snapshot
All U.S. three major indexes have been
in their 5th week down streak, DJI immediate support at around 45000
level, which is not only a round number but also prior resistance-turn-to-support.
Both SPX and Nasdaq indexes also confirmed heightened risk-off pressure- long
red candlesticks show bears firmly in charge.
π Weekly charts:
π¨π³
China / Hong Kong
Market Overview
Chinese and Hong Kong equities retreated
modestly, driven more by Middle East-related energy spillover than domestic
macro disappointment, as investors reassessed earnings pressure across
transportation, industrial and consumer sectors. The blue chip benchmark CSI
300 Index fell 1.41%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) declined 1.09%, and
theHang Seng Index lost 1.29% for the week.
·
CSI 300: -1.41%
· Shanghai Composite: -1.09%
· Hang Seng Index: -1.29%
Key Highlights and outlook
1️⃣ Beijing caps fuel price
hikes
The NDRC raised domestic gasoline and diesel prices by ~10% — roughly half the
increase expected under the standard mechanism — to cushion households and
industry. China is a net oil importer, with ~45% of its crude shipments
transiting the Strait of Hormuz, placing energy security directly in the
conflict's crosshairs.
2️⃣ Trump-Xi summit confirmed
for 14–15 May
Donald Trump will travel to Beijing in mid-May for a summit with President Xi,
delayed from an earlier date due to the Iran war. Both sides aim to stabilise
relations and address tariffs, providing a modest diplomatic lift to sentiment
earlier in the week.
3️⃣ China opens trade probes
into U.S. practices
Beijing's Ministry of Commerce launched
six-month investigations on Friday into U.S. supply chain and renewable energy
policies — mirroring Washington's Section 301 tools, targeting import
restrictions, export controls and investment limits. Beijing signalled some
measures may breach WTO rules, clearly framing its negotiating position ahead
of the May summit.
4️⃣ Industrial profits surged 15.2%
in Jan–Feb
Profits at major industrial firms jumped
sharply year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, before the Iran
conflict's full impact set in. Private firms led at +37.2% versus state-owned
enterprises at +5.3% — a reminder that domestic fundamentals were improving
heading into the external shock, though the March trajectory will be much
harder to read.
5️⃣ Airfares spike, regional tourism
disrupted
Asia-Europe long-haul fares have surged
as much as 560% due to Middle East airspace closures and rising jet fuel costs,
hitting regional tourism flows and adding input cost pressure across airlines
and travel-related sectors.
(Refer to the Hang Seng Index
constituents’ weekly performance table below.)
π Weekly charts:
πΈπ¬
Singapore
Market Overview
The STI remained relatively resilient compared to global peers for the week ended 27 March, closing at 4,898, was down 1.02% weekly, with the index broadly range-bound between 4,700 and 5,040 pending clearer resolution on the Iran conflict. Oil prices above US$110 per barrel drove a sharp divergence across STI constituents-energy-linked and financial stocks provided ballast, while rate-sensitive property and transport names pulled back.
On the domestic data front, Singapore's
CPI for February 2026 rose 0.6% from the previous month and 1.2% year-on-year —
released on 23 March — reflecting a still-benign local inflation picture
relative to global peers, though the lagged impact of elevated global energy
prices in March is likely to push that figure higher in coming months.
Top Performers of the Week
Sembcorp Industries, Singapore Exchange
(SGX) and OCBC stood out as key gainers for the week, with the other two banks
DBS and UOB also holding resilient. On the downside, REITs names such as Kep DC
Reit and Frasers L&C were among the worst performers, pressured by rising
bond yields and rate-sensitive valuation headwinds.
(Refer to the STI weekly performance
table below.)
The STI index has been in sideway consolidation within previous weekly trading
range. It’s now holding just above 50dma level around 4866, next major support
is around 4800 area.
π Weekly chart:
π
Week Ahead | 30 March – 4
April 2026
The coming week brings the most
consequential data of the month, and arguably of the quarter — with markets
entering it bruised after the S&P 500 and Dow closed out March with losses
of roughly 5.8% and 6.2% respectively, their worst quarter since the early
stages of the Iran conflict.
Friday 3 April: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
(March) is the marquee event. February's report delivered a shock — payrolls
contracted by 92,000 jobs against an expected gain, and the unemployment rate
edged up to 4.4%. IG March's reading will be watched extremely closely to
determine whether February was a one-off stumble or the start of a more serious
labour market deterioration. A rebound toward consensus (~51,000 jobs) would
ease recession concerns; a second consecutive miss could force a significant
re-pricing of Fed policy.
Wednesday 1 April: ISM Manufacturing PMI
(March) and Friday 3 April: ISM Services PMI (March) IG will provide the first
full-month gauge of how businesses are absorbing the energy shock —
particularly the prices-paid sub-indices, which markets will scrutinise for any
broadening of inflationary pressure beyond energy.
China's NBS Manufacturing and Services
PMI for March (due Tuesday 1 April) will be the first hard data read on how
Beijing's industrial sector is weathering the oil price shock and trade
uncertainty heading into the Trump-Xi summit. Any sharp deterioration would add
a second leg of pressure to already soft regional sentiment.
For Singapore, the local calendar is
relatively light, but STI direction will continue to track the Iran conflict
headlines and the outcome of Friday's U.S. payrolls — the single biggest binary
event for global risk appetite next week.
Source: Some content and data are
excerpted from publicly available market reports. Please comment to claim
copyright ownership of any material, and it will be removed if necessary.
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