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For the week ended Mar 20, 2026, Markets endured another choppy week as the Iran conflict kept oil near recent highs, with Brent flirting with USD120 and WTI nearing USD100. U.S. equities slipped while Treasury yields edged higher, as investors weighed the growth hit from energy against still‑solid fundamentals and a cautious Fed that left rates unchanged and signalled only one cut this year. Energy stocks outperformed on the back of higher crude, while most other sectors struggled under rising inflation worries. In Asia, Chinese and Hong Kong markets stayed sensitive to oil swings and tech earnings, with better‑than‑expected China activity data only partly offsetting concerns over imported inflation and policy uncertainty.

 

U.S. Stocks – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed lower in a volatile week shaped by oil price swings, rising inflation concerns, and hawkish interpretation of the Fed’s latest signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) fared worst, declining 2.11%, followed by the Nasdaq Composite(COMP), which shed 2.07%, the S&P 500(SPX) also fell 1.90%.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones: -2.11%

·       S&P 500: -1.90%

·       Nasdaq Composite: -2.07%

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Key Highlights for the Week and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed- On Hold, But Watching Inflation Expectations
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, as expected. The Fed’s overall tone was cautious. Policymakers did not make major changes to their outlook, but they acknowledged that the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices create additional uncertainty.

2️⃣ Economic Data – Mixed but Still Holding Up
Recent data suggests the economy is slowing only modestly, not collapsing.

·       Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% m/m in February, stronger than expected

·       Annual PPI accelerated to 3.4%

·       Homebuilder sentiment improved slightly in March

·       Pending home sales rose 1.8%

·       New home sales fell sharply to the lowest since 2022

This paints a mixed picture: inflation is still sticky, but the economy has not rolled over.

3️⃣ This Oil Shock ≠ the 1970s
While headlines are alarming, today’s oil shock is not a replay of 1970s‑style stagflation. Energy is only about 2% of U.S. consumer spending versus roughly 6% back then, so the hit to household wallets is smaller. The U.S. is now a net oil exporter, with domestic gas prices relatively shielded even as Europe and Asia face tighter supply, and shale producers benefit from higher crude. Globally, the economy is far less oil‑intensive, with much less energy needed per unit of GDP thanks to efficiency gains and the shift to services. Overall, this shock is growth‑negative and inflation‑positive, but the underlying fundamentals are stronger than in past oil panics.

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S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

S&P 500 sectors posted a clear risk-off week, with only Energy closing higher (+2.8%) amid elevated crude prices and rotation into oil names. Every other sector declined, led by Utilities (-4.9%) and Consumer Staples (-4.1%)—defensives that offered no refuge. Cyclicals and growth struggled too: Tech (-1.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-3.1%), Industrials (-2.9%), and Communication Services (-2.2%). The broad market (SPY) fell ~2.1%, with leadership narrowing sharply into Energy as the only bright spot.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

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Technical snapshot – major U.S. indices

U.S. three major indices confirmed heightened risk-off pressure: all three—SPX, DJI, and Nasdaq—broke their 200-day moving averages this week, a major bearish signal alarming bulls. SPX closed below its 200dma (~6,594) for the first time since last May and also snapped key support at ~6,550 on Friday, with Dow -2.1%, SPX -1.9%, COMP -2.1%. Bears now firmly in charge as rallies look capped until oil volatility eases.

📊 Weekly charts:

• DJI weekly chart
• SPX weekly chart
• Nasdaq weekly chart

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🇨🇳 China / 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Markets

Market Overview

China equities fell this week as rising energy prices tied to Middle East tensions added to persistent concerns over weak domestic demand and limited policy support. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 2.19%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) dropped 3.38%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index edged down 0.74%.  

·       CSI 300: -2.19%

·       Shanghai Composite: -3.38%

·       Hang Seng Index: -0.74%

Key Highlights – China & Hong Kong

1️⃣ Activity data modestly beat expectations
China’s January–February activity data came in slightly better than expected, pointing to some early-year stabilization. Industrial production rose 6.3% y/y and retail sales increased 2.8%, both ahead of forecasts. Fixed asset investment grew 1.8%, supported mainly by infrastructure spending, though property investment remained weak.

2️⃣ Property market shows tentative stabilization
China’s property sector showed early signs of stabilizing in February. New home prices in 70 cities fell 0.28% m/m, improving from January’s 0.37% decline, while resale home prices saw the smallest drop in 10 months. Authorities continue to roll out selective support measures, including easing homebuying rules for non-residents in major cities.

3️⃣ Trade tensions resurface

U.S.-China trade tensions have resurfaced after Washington launched new Section 301 investigations into manufacturing policies and excess capacity in strategic sectors. The probe could lead to fresh tariffs on imports from China and several other economies as early as this summer. Beijing has urged dialogue but signaled it will defend its interests if needed.

4️⃣ Hong Kong faces oil shock and market volatility risks

Hong Kong could face higher oil-related inflation and increased market volatility if the Middle East conflict escalates further. As an import-dependent economy, the city is more exposed to energy supply disruptions and rising fuel costs. This may add pressure on sentiment, household spending, and broader financial markets.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

• SSE weekly chart
• HSI weekly chart

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🇸🇬 Singapore Market – Weekly Wrap

Market Overview
The Straits Times Index (STI) outperformed regional peers in Week 12, rising 2.2% to 4,948.87, even as most other benchmarks drifted lower amid oil-driven volatility and broader geopolitical uncertainty. The resilience was led by strength in Sembcorp Industries (+6.6%), Singtel (+5.0%), SGX (+4.8%) and the local banks — DBS (+3.8%), OCBC (+3.6%) and UOB (+2.8%). This reflects the STI’s relatively defensive market mix, with support from energy, telcos and financials, which helped cushion the broader market weakness. In short, it was a classic rotation trade: Singapore held up better thanks to sector leadership, while broader regional sentiment remained capped until crude price volatility eases.

Market Leaders

Outperformers:

• SCI: +6.59%
• SingTel: +5.04%

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot – STI
The STI registered a bullish crossover against its key moving averages during the week and closed above all major trend lines, suggesting bulls remain firmly in control for now. Technically, the setup stays constructive, but with regional markets turning weaker, investors should monitor the 50-day moving average near 4,863 as an important near-term support level in the coming week.

📊 Weekly chart:

• STI weekly chart

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Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and it will be removed if necessary.