For a trader, winning is extremly dangerous if you haven't learned how to monitor and control yourself.

The Secret Recipe: Trading Success = Winning Trading System - U


Thursday, July 29, 2010

Plantation Sector Warming up?

The plantation sector has been in silent mode for quite some time, partially attribute to not-long-time ago media reports about the "big brother" wilmar on tax issue.  Since then Wilmar plunged more than 15% in share price and rebounded. Now it still in the course of recovery, not yet reach to its Apr high of $7.

 Below are some fundamental information for plantation stocks. My top picks from charts perspective will be Indoagri at present.



Malaysia and Indonesia as two of the world largest plantation and palm oil producers.
Palm oil inventories are at the lowest level in 10 months due to stronger 1H10 exports coupled with marginal production growth. Inventory to production ratio in Malaysia is only 1.02 months.
 
Peninsular Malaysia production dragged down by tree stress. For 1H10, production in Malaysia inched up by only 0.7% to 7.98m tonnes. Production from Peninsular Malaysia fell 3.9% yoy, offsetting the 7.4% production growth in East Malaysia.

Production in Peninsular Malaysia was hit by biological tree stress after two years of good harvest in 2008-09. Meanwhile, East Malaysia, which suffered from heavy rainfall in 1H09, showed a significant improvement in production in 1H10.


 
Demand from key customers growing strong. In 1H10, palm oil exports rose 8.8%,  thanks to strong demand from China (+23%), the EU (+15.1%) and the US (+15.3%).

India’s palm oil intake slowed down in 1H10 as demand shifted from refined palm oil to soybean oil because refined palm oil was more expensive than soybean oil in India on a few occasions in Feb 10 and May-Jun 10.
   

No comments: