Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 17

Summary of content for the week of  Jul 17:

1. Week 29 major indexes performance;
2. Week 29 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;
4. Major indexes monthly performance for June.

U.S

U.S stocks finished out a bumpy week mixed. SPX and DJI closed 3rd week up in a row but the technolgy-dominant Nasdaq closed lower. SPX reached intra-week level not seen since the market selloff began in late Feb, at its peak Wednesday, the index was briefly in positive territory for the year. Market seen shift out from high valuation growth stocks to value stocks, caused Nasdaq to pull back from its all-time high.

Earning seasons kicked off started this week, several major banks reported deep drops in profit. But early vaccine hopes boosted sentiment as Moderna Therapeutics announced its novel vaccine had produced high levels of antibodies in all tests. Oxford University also announced progress in their vaccine candidate. Coming week, market should be continue focus on vaccine front, major companies' earnings, and US-China tension.

Technically, SPX index is trading above all its 20/50/200dma, has been trading in a 3-day short term sideway range near recent peak. A breakout from its last 3-day range up or down should provide an early signal.

China/HK

Shanghai index SSE slumped in a volatile week amid economic data, renewed U.S trade tensions, and profit-taking following recent rally. China's 2Q GDP beat expectation at 3.2% growth rate, reversing a historica 6.8% contraction in 1Q. SSE index technical trend remains bullish, it rebounded a bit after hitting its 20dma on Friday. HSI experienced profit-taking after recent rally as well. 

Singapore

STI index closed down 2nd week in a row. Technically, the index immediate upside target 2750 and downside support 2572 level.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 10

Summary of content for the week of  Jul 10:

1. Week 28 major indexes performance;
2. Week 28 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;
4. Major indexes monthly performance for June.

U.S

U.S finished higher with the technology sector extending a recent surge that returned the Nasdaq to record highs. COVID-19 and economic data are two major forces that dragged markets back and forth. Technically, it appears something big about to happen. Refer to SPX weekly chart below, the index has broken out from its 3-week consolidation range and closed just at its downtrend line(purple line). 

China/HK

China stocks jumped at the start of trading Monday, with many attributes the strength to a front page editorial in the China Securities Journal, which stated that  “fostering a healthy bull market after the pandemic is now more important to the economy than ever”. After June's positive economic data, many analysts have upgraded their 2Q estimates for China's economic growth. 

Hong Kong stocks seen international and mainland funds continue flowing in at the start of Monday but gave back most part of its gain by profit-taking on Friday.

Singapore

STI closed flat in the shortened trading week. Market closed for the general election on Friday. Technically the index downside support at 2572 level. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jul 3

Summary of content for the week of  Jul 3:

1. Week 27 major indexes performance;
2. Week 27 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;
4. Major indexes monthly performance for June.

U.S

U.S stocks finished the week higher in the shortened Jul 4th holiday week. This week also marked the end of the second quarter. DJI index having its best quarter on record since 1987, closing up 17.8%. The overall stock market performance as measured by the SPX declined 4% for the first six months of the year, it contained a 35% decline from Feb's record high and a 44% rally from march's low. Refer to major index monthly performance table below.

Solid economic data, particularly about the labour market, offset coronavirus second wave fears. Pending homes sales also seemed to support sentiment. The technology-heavy Nasdaq index(COMP) hit a record new high. Technically, SPX has been trading in a back and forth sideways consolidation manner with no clear direction. Refer to the major index weekly performance and weekly charts below.

Within SPX 11 major sectors, the small real estate(XLRE) and Communication Services(XLC) particularly strong. Financials(XLF) and Energy(XLE) shares lagged. Refer to the below sector index performance table below.

China/HK

China's CSI 300 index hits two and half year high as recovery unfolds, the more broad market measure Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) hit more than one year new high since Apr 2019. Sentiment brightened as Caixin/Markit  MPI rose to a six-month high of 51.2, and China's official PMI rose to 50.9-4th straight month above 50. Technically SSE breaks out its big triangle pattern drawn from 2018 high(refer to below SSE weekly chart) which is a bullish signal. 

HSI index also rose to close at high since Mar 9 week, despite of news headlines worries of capital outflow after China introduced a national security law for HK taken effective on Jul 1. Technically, HSI is poised to test 26,000 level in coming week.

Singapore

STI formed a bullish reversal candlestick on its weekly chart which is bullish, this came after three-week down in a row. Expected to continue rebound with immediate technical support at 2600.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 26

Summary of content for the week of  Jun 26:

1. Week 26 major indexes performance;
2. Week 26 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

Stocks gave back the previous week's gains, as worries about the 2nd wave of infection offset the news over some positive economic data. 

Technically, it's not the time to turn fully bearish now yet. SPX formed a lower high but no lower low yet, and it's still trading above 50dma and 3000 level. DJI appears weaker but also no lower high yet and above its 50dma as well. The strongest index among all three Nasdaq index just closed below its 20dma by profit-taking after hitting new high this week, away above its 50dma. Early sign to turn bearish would be SPX drops below 2965.66 recent low and its 50dma level 2980.

Bank stocks were particularly volatile. On Thursday, financials rallied on news that Fed was easing restrictions put in place following the financial crisis of 2008. Financials fell back sharply on Friday, however, on previous evening's news the Fed was planning to restrict bank's ability to pay out shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. 

All 11 SPX sectors closed in red, Technology(XLK) less affected with 0.68% down. Financials(XLF) and Energy(XLE) dropped the most with 5.8% and 7.7% down respectively. Refer to below sector index weekly performance table.

China/HK

China and HK had a shortened trading week due to public holidays. SSE index closed 2nd week up in a row, approaching its major downtrend line resistance and 3000 mark now. HSI largely trading within its 4-week trading range. 

Singapore

STI had its 3rd week down consecutively but the selling appears much under control, it looks a healthy retracement to me after its strong rally 3-wk ago. Major support level to watch 2600 and 2500.  

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 19

Summary of content for the week of  Jun 19:

1. Week 25 major indexes performance;
2. Week 25 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

Stocks rebounded this week and erased part of the previous week's steep declines. The technology-heavy Nasdaq index(COMP) fared best and briefly moved close to the all-time intraday recently. 

The week ended on a volatile note due to Friday's "quadruple witching"- occurs on the 3rd Friday of the month of every quarter, in Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec, and refers to the simultaneous expiration of single-stock options, single-stock futures, and stock-index options and stock-futures. The rebalancing of SPX index and several other benchmarks was also likely increased volume and price movements.

Mixed of good and bad COVID-19 headlines and economic data also contributed to market volatilities. Worsening of pandemic in several U.S states and Bejing continued weighing on sentiments. On the other hand, Fed announced it will begin buying U.S corporate bonds seemed to further support sentiments. 

Among SPX 11 major sectors, Healthcare(XLV) and Technology(XLK) outperformed, and Utilities(XLI) lagged. Refer to below weekly sector performance table.

Technically, the US three major indexes largely in their three-week trading range with no clear direction though Friday's drop in DJI index could led negative sentiment in Asia on Monday.

China/HK

Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) gained 1.64% despite a reported surge in new COVID-19 cases in Beijing, highlighting the risk of a second wave of the infections. Despite fears of another wave, public health experts believe that China will be able to better manage it. SSE rose to new high since Mar 11, approaching 3000 level. HSI in its recent 3-week trading range.

Singapore

STI posted 2nd week down in a row by profit-taking strong rally 2-week ago. Immediate technical support at 2600-2610 area.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 12

Summary of content for the week of  Jun 12:

1. Week 24 major indexes performance;
2. Week 24 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

The week saw a dramatic reversal in sentiment. U.S stocks snapped a string of 3-week gains that boosted the Nasdaq to all-time highs and the SPX within shouting distance of positive territory for the year. The SPX suffered its worst daily sell-off on Thursday since Mar 16, three main reasons attributed to:

1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised investors with a fairly bleak assessment of the pace of the recovery in the coming months, predicting the unemployment rate would end 2020 at 9.3% and warning of permanent job losses;

2) Concerning of 2nd wave of virus infections as reports of increasing numbers of cases in serval states;

3) Profit-taking to harvest recent gains as stocks run into new high;

Technically, SPX rebounded on Friday and recovered some of its losses, the recent uptrend from Mar low still intact and the index closed at its 20dma and still above its 50 and 200dma. No clear direction as to where the market will go in the coming week though weekly candlestick appears very bearish.

Among the 11 major SPX sectors, Financials(XLF) and energy(XLE) fared worst and the fast-growing IT sectors i.e Technology(XLK) and Communication Sevices( XLC) help up best. Refer to the below sector indexes weekly performance table.

China/HK

China Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) declined amid disappointing credit data and weak global sentiment. SSE ended down 0.38% after a two-week gain. HSI also down by profit-taking and after hitting a 3-month new high. Immediate technical support for HSI is 24,000 which is both 20 and 50dma.

Singapore

STI hit 2800 level and down by profit-taking, immediate technical level to watch 2611 gap support. Singapore is looking forward to re-open practically entire economy this month as saying by national development minister Lawrence Wong, this should provide optimism to stocks.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Jun 5

Summary of content for the week of  Jun 5:

1. Week 23 major indexes performance;
2. Week 23 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S

U.S stocks rallied sharply this week, posting a 3rd-straight week of gains, turbocharged by a much better-than-expected May nonfarm payroll report on Friday, adding the already-high optimism surrounding the economic recovery from COVID-19 disruption. SPX closed the week up 5% and just 6% from Feb record high. The index has risen a marvelous 43% from March low so far. Refer to the major indexes weekly performance table below.

It shows the risk-off mode as the small-cap indexes were particularly strong. Moreover, over the last two weeks, with positive signs of a safe reopening of the global economy, the market rally has broadened from a handful of large tech companies with strong fundamentals that were largely immune to the COVID-19 lockdown, to other sectors tied most tightly to the economic conditions, such as financials, industrials and real estate. 

Within SPX 11 major sectors, Energy(XLE) shares outperformed, helped by news that OPEC and other oil major exporters were considering extending production reduction. Typically defensive Healthcare(XLV) sector lagged. Refer to the below sector's weekly performance.

China/HK

China SSE rose for the week, aided by a thaw in U.S-China relations. As U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said he felt "very good" about the progress of phase one agreement with China. 

HK business environment expected to be improved after stability returned as the implementation of HK security law by China's central government. HSBC(0005.HK) and Stanchart(2888.HK) rallied 13% and 19% respectively this week after defying UK to endorse Hongkong security law. HSI index added 8% to 3-mth high this week.

Singapore

STI index was the best performer index this week with 10% gain, boosted by reopening of economy after Jun 1. Local banks, real estate led the rebound. The weekly candlestick looks super bullish, the market is expected to continue rebound in the coming week(s) with the next target at 2890-2960 which is a technical gap resistance area.