U.S. Stocks are Back at All-Time Highs

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jun 27, U.S. stocks rallied in response to several positive developments during the week, including de-escalating tensions in the Middle East, dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, reports that the U.S. and China signed a new trade deal, and comments from several U.S. government officials indicating that more trade deals were close to the finish line. The S&P 500 Index(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite(COMP), up 3.44% and 4.25%, respectively, both closed at record highs and up about 5% YTD, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) rose over 3.8%. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance tables.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Inflation uptick in May modestly, Personal Consumption Expenditures(PCE) price index- the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE rose 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY in May, both slightly ahead of consensus estimates and up from April’s radings of 0.1% and 2.6% respectively. 

2.    Fed still poised to cut rates by year-end. Oil and energy prices have moved sharply lower in recent days, which helps support lower headline inflation. While futures markets were still pricing in a high likelihood that the Fed will keep rates steady in July, the probability of a rate cut rose from 14.5% at the end of the prior week to around 19% by Friday afternoon, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

3.    Geopolitical tensions easing, oil prices falling. Over the weekend of June 21-22, conflict in the Middle East escalated, as the U.S. launched airstrikes against three of Iran's nuclear-enrichment facilities. This was a surprise strike and came in the midst of Israel and Iran's ongoing conflict that began on June 13. However, in recent days there has been notable de-escalation in the conflict. U.S. WTI crude oil, which had risen over 20% in June to $75 per barrel, fell about 13% last week down to around $65 per barrel. 

4.    Potential setbacks. There are several potential catalysts for markets’ retreat. These include ongoing tax and trade negotiations, the passing of a U.S. tax bill, and the potential for some cooling in economic growth sparked by higher tariff rates. We saw just on Friday that the stock market rally faded as Trump announced it was ending trade discussions with Canada over a digital services tax. 

SPX sectors in play

Eight out of 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, Technology sectors including Communication Services(XLC), Tech(XLK) and Consumer Discretionary(XLY) continue to lead the way higher, they are the top three most outperforming sectors for the week.

Energy(XLE) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Stock markets made fresh all-time highs last week, with both the S&P 500(SPX) and technology-heavy Nasdaq(COMP) up about 5% year-to-date. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets rose following news that the U.S. and China finalized a trade understanding reached in Geneva last month. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.91% and the blue-chip CSI 300 gained 1.95%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rallied 3.2%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    News of the framework announced last Thursday by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick temporarily stabilized trade relations between both countries. On Friday, Beijing confirmed some aspects of an accord, which reportedly codifies the terms laid out in trade talks this year, including a pledge from China to deliver rare earths. However, no detailed readout followed the announcement, and the deal did not address issues such as fentanyl trafficking. 

2.    On the economic front, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) noted that the economy is showing positive signs and rising confidence, but insufficient domestic demand and deflation continued to weigh on activity. The PBOC said in its post-quarterly policy committee meeting statement that it would adopt a flexible approach to policymaking, taking domestic and international conditions into account. It also said monetary policy would remain “moderately loose” with the aim of maintaining stable economic growth and prices within a reasonable range.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) rallied 2.13% to close at 3966.20 point this week. The index rebounded back to all-time high since 1^st April, and less than 40pts away to its record high of 4005.18. Maybank Securities raised 2025E STI target to 4185 level on its 25 June update.

The “good old” local technology stocks such as AEM, Frencken and UMS appear to have bottom rebounded and outperformed in the week, rising 23.6%, 9.6% and 12.4% respectively. Expected S-REITs will also be outperforming in 2H 2025 in anticipating of lower interest rates. Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.