Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Aug 23

Summary of content for the week of Aug 23:

1. Week 34 major indexes performance;
2. Week 34 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks suffered 4th straight weekly loss as U.S-China trade war escalation overshadowed U.S retail sales data and Fed dovish stance on rate cut next month. China unveiled a new round of retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion U.S goods and Trump quickly responded with strong-worded. U.S stocks plunged and wiped off prior 4-sessions healthy gain. Dow ended with 623 pts or 2.37% down on Friday. 

Expect volatility in stocks will rise as it seems long-way to end the trade-war, but U.S economy especially the consumer spending(69% of GDP in 2018) data still strong and Net Exports only account a small fraction in GDP. U.S stocks still have reasons for upside move despite the 10-year treasury yield curve inverted again on Friday. Short term knee-jerk reaction to trade wars will persist. 

Among the 11 SPX major sectors, only two sectors i.e Consumer Discretionary(XLY) and Utilities(XLU) closed with weekly gain, Materials(XLB) was the worst performer with 2.95% loss. 

China/HK
China's $75 billion tariffs on U.S goods announced after Asian markets closed. Shanghai SSE index recorded 2nd wk rebound as the People's Bank of China(PBOC) announced changes to the loan prime rate(LPR), perceived as hopes for fresh stimulus measures. 

HSI recorded 1st-week rebound after four-week down in a row. The key technical support at 24900 level, which hit twice in Jan and Aug.

Singapore
STI edged up a little and recorded the first-week rebound after 4-week down also. Expected fresh downside selling pressure in the coming week(s). Immediate technical support level to watch is 3100 then 3000 level.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Aug 16

Summary of content for the week of Aug 16:

1. Week 33 major indexes performance;
2. Week 33 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks down for 3rd straight week, worried about global economic slowdown and renewed yield-curve inversion worries. The biggest drop came on Wednesday when the 10-year Treasury bond yield dipped below two-year rate for the first time since 2007, and DJI dropped 800 points. However, strong U.S retail sales for the month of Jul reported on Thursday help easied market and led for markets recovery on Thursday and Friday. I'd like to reiterate that no signs for an immediate crash on U.S stocks given that U.S economy still healthy though slowing down, the low-interest-rate environment would also provide support for credit and cheap money which are positive for stocks. However, do expect market volatility as trade war not going to end anytime soon. 

Among the 11 SPX sectors, Consumer Staples(XLP) and Utilities(XLU) performed the best, Energy(XLE) underperformed as oil price gave back its early rally in the week. 

China/HK
China SSE index posted first week gain after two-week straight down. China's economic data released came underestimate, underscored the slowdown in economy. China announced on Friday will boost its disposable income to spur consumption gave a lift to stocks. 

HK HSI index recorded 4th week down in a row, but the index recovered most of its loss for the week after hitting its Jan year-low of 24899 level. Trading at a key technical support 25000 and expected technical rebound. 

Singapore
STI recorded 4th week straight down, lost total 8%. Its immediate technical key support at 3100-3068 level. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Aug 9

Summary of content for the week of Aug 9:

1. Week 32 major indexes performance;
2. Week 32 US sector indexes performance;
3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks finished the week modestly lower after a week of elevated volatility. The major indexes hit their worst day of the year on Monday, while the fear index VIX spiked up to a high of 24.81, -its highest since Jan 3 this year. Stocks recovered their losses in subsequent trading days but remained volatile. The VIX closed at 17.97 at its 2-month high. As global market reacted to an unexpected drop in China's currency to below key psychological level 7 against the dollar, which was viewed as in response to U.S new tariff schedule to take effect in Sep. 

U.S 10-year bond dropped to 1.745 new low in three years. As risk-off sentiment increases. Having said that, the U.S stocks still looking in good shape, given its strong economy, accommodate with Fed's low-interest rate. U.S stocks do not look like crashing anytime soon. 

Among the major 11 SPX sectors, Energy(XLE) was the worst performer attributed to a surprise rise in U.S inventories. The fall in long-time interest rate favoring real estate stocks, Real Estate(XLRE) was the top performer in the week. 

China/HK
China stocks seem to bear the high impact on the escalation of U.S-China trade war, Shanghai SSE index had breakdown its Jun technical support and hit a new low since Feb this year. HK stocks had a sharp loss this week, nearly given up as HK's street unrest putting more direct impact on its economy as its latest data shows. HK is in the risk of a technical recession, the situation is worse than SARS and 2008 financial crisis impact. 

Singapore
STI was hit hard for 2nd week with 2.83% or 92.17pts loss. It fell to its bottom uptrend line as shown in below weekly chart. Downside support at 3167 then 3100 level. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Aug 2

Summary of content for the week of Aug 2:

1. Week 31 major indexes performance;
2. Week 31 US sector indexes performance;
3. Indexes performance for the month of Jul;
4. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S
U.S stocks suffered their worst week so far in 2019 as Trump's announcement of a new 10% tariffs on $300 billion worth of China's imports starting in September, with option to increase to 25% and beyond. This has overshadowed the fact Fed's interest rate cut for the first time in a decade, which is welcomed by the stock markets.  

Technically, the fear index VIX shoot up to its highest since May for the week, which is bearish sign. The three major indexes retreated from their record highs, could continue going lower given the stocks are not cheap. Investors tend to take profit when uncertainties on the rise. 

Among the major 11 SPX sectors, Real Estate(XLRE) and Utilities(XLU) are the only two sectors recorded a positive close for the week, while Technology(XLK) and Consumer Discretionary( XLY) are the two lagging sectors. Refer to the weekly sector performance table below.

China/Hong kong
China and HK stocks slumped after U.S tariff escalation announced by Trump. Both SSE and HSI indexes hit their 7-week low since June.

Singapore
STI had its worst weekly decline this year with 3.05% down. The long back candlestick on its weekly chart looks very bearish especially when in fact it retreated from its major downward trendline. Plenty of room to downside technically, as shown in its weekly chart below.