Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 28

Summary of Content for the Week of Dec 28:

1. Week 52 major index performance;
2. Week 52 SPY sector index performance;
3. Major index weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.

US stocks rebounded after three weeks down in a row, but all three major indexes are still underwater YTD return. Understand we are left one more day on Monday to close the year 2018, the big picture is that all three indexes already had their major uptrend broken down and this might be just a rebound before further downside. The first resistance for SPX will be 2530 to 2603 level, if it continues rebound.  

Best performer sectors are Consumer Discretionary(XLY) and Technology(XLK) with gain of  4.48% and 3.72% respectively, Utilities(XLU) down 1.82% this week. 

Gold rebounded and hit 6-month high at 1282.6 this week, an indicator as fretted investors are risk off to safe-haven. Crude Oil closed at 45.34, just above its key support 42 which is the 2017 low, down 45% from its 76.9 hit in Jan 2018. Fear Index VIX closed down at 28.34 after hitting intra-week high of 36.2.

Over in Asia, STI ended the week positive after 3 weeks down, tested 3000 support level and rebounded this week. The congested area between October low 2955 and 3000 is key support level for bulls. 

Both Hang Seng Index(HSI) and Shanghai Index(SSE) closed slightly down but both within their recent "bottom" range, no heavy selling into the year-end holiday season. HSI support area is its October low 24500 to 25000 area and SSE support at the October low 2449 level. 

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 21

Summary of Content for the Week of Dec 21:

1. Week 51 major index performance;
2. Week 51 SPY sector index performance;
3. Major index weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.

Wall Street ended its worst week in a decade with more bruising losses on Friday, as there are too many uncertainties right now: the partial shut-down on US government, firing of Fed Chairman by Mr. Trump, on-going US-China trade-war talks...

US stocks enter final week of the year on the brink of a bear market, so far DJI was down 17% from its peak, Nasdaq lost 22% and SPX lost 20% respectively from their peak this year. A loss of more than 20% was considered into a bear market. The widely watched market barometer SPX index closed just above its key support level 2400. All three indexes weekly candlesticks broken down their respective recent support levels and look very bearish, poised for further downside.

Of the 11 major SPY sectors, both Materials(XLB) and Utilities(XLU) dropped 5.3% for the week--least among the sectors, and Energy(XLE) dropped the most with 9.63% down. Fear index VIX rose to 30.11, highest since Feb 2018. Crude oil continued diving into new low 45.41-lowest since Jul 2017. 

In Asia, major indexes may catch-up with Walls Street plunge coming week. STI's immediate support 3000, then this year low at 2955; HSI immediate support at 25000 then year low 24500; SSE's immediate support 2500 then year low at 2449 level. 

Major indexes weekly performance and weekly charts as follow.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 14

Summary of Content for the Week of Dec 14:

1. Week 50 major index performance;
2. Week 50 SPY sector index performance;
3. Major index weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.

US stocks plunged on Friday, ended the week all in red, DJI and SPX closed 2.5% and 2.76% underwater YTD, and the tech dominant Nasdaq gave up almost all its gain this year, closed just 0.11% gain YTD, all by this week. 

SPX closed just above its weekly low 2583.23, which was the lowest level since May 2018. SPX closed just marginally below 2600 level at 2599.95. Two important points worth to note: the American Association of Individual Investors(AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey figures and upcoming Fed rate announcement on Wednesday( Thursday 3am Singapore time). "Pessimism spiked to its highest level since Apr 2013"- seen from AAII statement below, the numbers should be read as a contrarian signal-- market often bounce off to the opposite direction when it hit one extreme. As for now, do expect a rebound in the coming week, in other words, we may still get Christmas rally this year- don't give up so early yet. However, if markets to continue drop in coming week(s), the next TP for SPX at 2400 level. 

As for the US major sectors, Financial(XLF) plunged the most with 3.46% loss this week, and the defensive sector Utilities(XLU) was the most gainer with 0.64% up. 

In Asia, HSI was the best performer and the only index closed positive this week, it closed just above its long-term 50% Fibonacci level 25880 level, as seen from below weekly charts. Singapore STI closed just below 50% fib 3085 level, immediate support to watch is 3050, see if it can rebound in coming week. Shanghai SSE has been in almost two-months bottom consolidation.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 7

Summary of Content for the Week of Dec 7:

1. Week 49 major index performance;
2. Week 49 SPY sector index performance;
3. Major index weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.

US stocks plunged again this week over US bond yield inverting and Huawei CFO arrest in Canada. World financial markets jittered and gave back all gains from the announced 90-day trade war truce after Trump-Xi's G20 meeting, I am surprised the truce so fast becomes short-lived, the much-expected X'mas and year-end rally looks very dim now. 

From the technical perspective, stocks look very bearish and poised for further downside. SPX(ref to weekly chart below) negated previous week gain, tested its major uptrend line back and sold off, the box of consolidation usually has a projection target to the downside to 2400 level, that's about 200 points below close on Friday. DJI index also closed below its major uptrend line for the 2nd time. Nasdaq gave back almost all its YTD gain, the rest of indexes YTD return are underwater now.

Among 11 SPY sectors, Utilities(XLU) and Real Estate(XLRE) are two best sectors with positive weekly gain. Financial(XLF) is the weakest sectors and were led down by the banks.
That's because falling bonds yields are usually bad for financials. Dividend-paying utilities usually benefit from falling bond yields. So do consumer staples, drug stocks, and REITs which are holding up relatively well. Groups being hit the hardest are economically-sensitive consumer cyclicals(like retailers), small caps, semiconductors, and transports( like delivery service stocks). That's another vote of no confidence in economic growth.

In Asia, STI tested 3195 resistance level and was sell-off, immediate pivot level is 3085 which is the 50% Fibonacci level from 2016-2018 low to high. There was heavy selloff for HSI index as well. SSE was relatively holding well among the major indexes and is the only index with positive weekly close. It's time for the US getting more worries than China.

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Nov 30

Summary of Content for the Week of Nov 30:

1. Week 48 major index performance;
2. Week 48 SPY sector index performance;
3. Major index weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.

US stocks rebounded this week just ahead of 2018 G20 leaders summit on Friday and Saturday. The three major US indexes added 4.8% to 5.6% for the week, DJI and SPX both closed positive YTD return after dipped to the negative previous week. The Nasdaq index gained 5.6% this week after it was wiped off almost all YTD gain the previous week. 

Among SPY 11 sectors, Health care(XLV) and Technology(XLK) sectors are the two top perform sectors with 6.95% and 6.02% gain respectively. 

In Asia, HSI and STI both rebounded to above their key support levels--50% fib from 2016 to 2018 low to high, 50% Fibonacci level for HSI at 25881 and 3085 for STI, which are bullish signs. SSE index relatively weak still in its 7-week bottom consolidation range. Refer to below index weekly performance and charts.