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Sunday, December 9, 2018

Index Weekly Wrap for the Week of Dec 7

Summary of Content for the Week of Dec 7:

1. Week 49 major index performance;
2. Week 49 SPY sector index performance;
3. Major index weekly charts of Support and Resistance levels.


US stocks plunged again this week over US bond yield inverting and Huawei CFO arrest in Canada. World financial markets jittered and gave back all gains from the announced 90-day trade war truce after Trump-Xi's G20 meeting, I am surprised the truce so fast becomes short-lived, the much-expected X'mas and year-end rally looks very dim now. 

From the technical perspective, stocks look very bearish and poised for further downside. SPX(ref to weekly chart below) negated previous week gain, tested its major uptrend line back and sold off, the box of consolidation usually has a projection target to the downside to 2400 level, that's about 200 points below close on Friday. DJI index also closed below its major uptrend line for the 2nd time. Nasdaq gave back almost all its YTD gain, the rest of indexes YTD return are underwater now.

Among 11 SPY sectors, Utilities(XLU) and Real Estate(XLRE) are two best sectors with positive weekly gain. Financial(XLF) is the weakest sectors and were led down by the banks.
That's because falling bonds yields are usually bad for financials. Dividend-paying utilities usually benefit from falling bond yields. So do consumer staples, drug stocks, and REITs which are holding up relatively well. Groups being hit the hardest are economically-sensitive consumer cyclicals(like retailers), small caps, semiconductors, and transports( like delivery service stocks). That's another vote of no confidence in economic growth.

In Asia, STI tested 3195 resistance level and was sell-off, immediate pivot level is 3085 which is the 50% Fibonacci level from 2016-2018 low to high. There was heavy selloff for HSI index as well. SSE was relatively holding well among the major indexes and is the only index with positive weekly close. It's time for the US getting more worries than China.









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