Friday Indicator

We left one more trading day for the week, STI closed at 2772.52 for Thurday. Friday Indicators:

61.8%: 2791
50%: 2785
38.2%: 2779

I'm bullish if it CLOSED above 2785 tomorrow, otherwise, I'm remain my downside bias.

CapitaMall Upside Potential

CapitaMall closed at 1.815 today. Just break out its resistance 1.805. More upside is expected with target 1.855

STI in Consolidation 2800-2770

STI has been trading in the range from 2800-2770 for the past eight days, after the sharp drop. The question to ask now is: Is it a bottom yet? or just a pause before down further? My bias is to downside, as the Greece crisis is unsettled, market will remain jettery until Greece new election result come out after 17th June.

In the long term view, STI is hovering at fib 38.2% at 2769 level now. STI unable to stay above its uptrend line. Bias is to downside.

Bullish Reversal Stocks

Below are the few stocks with a bullish reversal candlesticks at their major support level:

EZRA: close at 96.5, immediate target @ 1.0
Sakari: close at 1.51, immediate target @ 1.73


STX OSV: close at 1.485, immediate target @ 1.515 then 1.60

STI Bounced

4.33pm, STI +21 at 2808 now. It crossed above 2790 weekly pivot level, which indicate bullish movement. On STI 60mins chart, it also crossed 20 and 50ma today, which its first time since the sharp drop. Market may get a lift from here.

I focus on blue chips for a quick bounce first.

Kepcorp

Sembmar

Sembcorp

SIA Engg

Capitaland

Biosensor

Capitland

Venture.

Euro Crisis Update( 2)

Might June be a Turning Point?

Might the month of June be the turning point for Mr. Bearish market? Having saying that, I have two important date to note:

First, 17th June: Greece new election date.( click HERE for details), market will be watching the result of this election see whether the Greek can form a government or not, see which side win. Market will definitely react on that, be it bullish or bearish.

Second, 20th June: US Fed FOMC meeting announcement. Will Fed push out QE3 to stimulate the economy and improve the unemployment ahead of Nov Presidency Election? We will see.

I have a colleague Mr. Lee who has been in this line for 50 years-- he started before I was born. With respect, I asked him: when is the worst time for stock market in your 50 years? He replied me without thinking: NOW.

I paused without a word. In my experience, it is true for most people (maybe 98%), as we only trade in one direction--long or buy then sell, we don't get used to short or sell then back back later. We don't trade CFD, futures or use other hedging methods as many Algo, hedge funds doing now. It's really a tough time. I will not be able to survive if I did not trade futures, thanks God Kim Eng CFD will be resumed soon-- I still can short the market if it's down. The market get more volatile, the up/down cycle shortened.

Let's get well prepared and equipped appropriate tools for this market.

Weekend Wrap

When we analyze the market, we need to constantly ask ourselves three questions over and over, both on intraday basis and also on end-of-day basis: What is the market doing at this juncture? What it's trying to do? How good is the job doing getting there?

For the first question, Market is basically in the consolidation phase after it plunged down to current trendline support(as shown in below chart). Second question, what does it trying to do? market is trying to have a rebounce from here but was selling off in the week once it got bounced, left us with a long tails( inverted harmer candlestick). In overall, market is still looks bearish on weekly chart, the bulls have not gain enough strength yet. The next major support is 2650 support( last year close) if market were to continue selling off from here.

Weekly pivot point for coming week:

R3: 2880
R2: 2856
R1: 2814
PP: 2790
S1: 2748
S2: 2724
S3: 2682

Olam Head & Should Pattern

Olam has broken out from a long term Head & Should pattern with downside target projected to 1.22.

Long Candidate: GLP

Global Logistic Property( GLP) just breakout from its "bottom" consolidation, at 2.03 now. more upside expected. Immdiate target is 2.10.

Friday Indicator

Good morning.

We are in the last trading day of the week. Here is my Friday special indicator:

61.8%: 2807
50%:   2800
38.2%: 2792

I'm bias to bullish side if STI CLOSED above 2800, otherwise, remain bearish.

An Overview of Greece Crisis

STI Stayed Flat

STI changed less than a point today, closed at 2779.53, -0.89. As I mentioned in my previous post, a close below 2779 basically indicate more downside move.

The 50PMA ( moving average) on hourly chart acts as an effective resistance line now( see below STI hourly chart), the downtrend has not violated so far. For upside move, STI has to break above the 50MA, and the downtrend line--to close above 2814 level.

Will STI Rebound from Here?

STI got a bounced from its major uptrend line support yesterday, ended with 33 points up to 2823. The question in our head is: is it a bottom or just a temporary technical rebounce? No 100% firmed answer, what I will do is: buy those deeply depressed "quality" stocks( I did mention in few posts back, the nine stocks) with bullish reversal signals. Take profit when they get bounced, pretty much short term style, as I always do. I will focus on blue chips rather than those small cheap, or penny stocks. When market rebound, good quality stocks always run first.

In any case, if STI CLOSED below 2779( below chart), it would be very much likely to drop lower.

Stocks Poised for Reversal (2)

ARA

Capitaland

Fortune Reit

F & N

Long Candidates(1)

Good morning everyone. US market got a bounce last night with Dow +135 to closed at 12504. STI is expected to get a bounce too today. I have below long candidates to enter today.


Bullish reversal candlestick:

F&N
OUE
SGX
YZJ
Wheelock

Weekly Pivot

STI weekly pivot support and resistance level for this week:

R3: 3000
R2: 2950
R1: 2864
PP: 2814
S1: 2728
S2: 2678
S3: 2592

Weekend Wrap

It's the second week of the ugly fall-out for STI, mainly attributed to the Greece crisis. To date, STI has dropped 211 points or 7.2% in two weeks time. It closed at 2779.1 on Friday, within my expected support area 2770-2780( refer to my previous post).

Take a look at STI weekly chart below, the weekly candlestick is a big black bearish candlestick, indicates the bears are still in dominate, market may drop further if we lost current 2770-2780 support. The next major support is 2650, which is a critical support level, it's STI last year closing level as well.

On STI daily chart below, STI gapped down to its long time uptrend line support level now. With the belief that market can't drop forever, the lower it drop, the higher it increased the probability of a rebounce. I have identified two support level to watch closely:

S1: 2770-2780
S2: 2650

Meanwhile, take a look at my STI momentum chart below, this chart tells me STI momentum, where above 160 indicates extremly bullish, and below 60 indicates extremly bearish. Market would very much likey reverse soon in both cases. This indicator has worked out quite accurately, never fail so far. It just dived below 60 on Friday, which shows me the probabilty of market rebounce is highly possible in coming days now. I expected market may have a last flush in coming week before it rebound.

Friday Indicator

It's a terrified week. STI has dropped 168 points or 5.7% in two weeks time( until Thursday). The two red candlesticks indicate the selling is very strong.

Today is the last trading day of the week, how it close will tell me market is bearish or bullish for coming week.

50%: 2860
61.8%: 2851

A close below 2860 indicate bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the mid term major support level is at 2770-2780 for immediate support.

Bears are In Absolute Control

STI broke down 2850 short term support today and continue heading north. Market momentum is bearish, the Greece problem is really worrisome. Any rebounce is short-lived. It's not time to "buy low sell high" for the bulls, as today's low will be tomorrow's high. It's not a bottom yet... As you can see from below STI 60mins chart, STI even had a hard time to close above its short term 22 pma(period moving average).

STI support levels:

weekly S2: 2827
weekly S3: 2779

50% fib: 2821
61.8% fib: 2770

The Three Banks Turned Bearish too

It was the three namely DBS, OCBC and UOB, and Singtel holding the market from dropping too much last week, but they started to break their support levels yesterday.

STI's immediate support is 2850, and 2960 is the major resistance if it rebounded.

Weekly Pivot

STI weekly Pivot level for coming week:

R3: 3008
R2: 2979
R1: 2931
PP: 2903
S1: 2855
S2: 2827
S3: 2779

Stocks Drop to Major Support

Below counters dropped quite a lot in one week time to their support level:

Genting sp @1.63 200MA
Capitaland @ 2.68 200MA rebounded, with bullish candlestick pattern

Singtel Break symmetric triangle with target to upside at 3.31

Weekend Wrap

In today's monthly workshop, I shared with member market outlook for major indices and 2H2012 strategy.

We are at a pivot point now, STI had broken down from its multi-months consolidation range this week, with obvious high volume. The wind is blowing south now.

On the other hand, US market three major indices. i.e DJI, SPX, NAS are still well supported by their respective support line. The Asian markets including HSI, SSE and STI all showing bearish sentiment. they are weaker as compare to US markets.

STI
As for this week, STI closed down 107 points or 3.6% at 2883, below its 50% level( the "mid-wave") at 2919. It looks to me a bearish sign poised for further downside. Its multi-months sideway consolidation was obviously broken downside by the last ugly weekly red candle.

However, the five days down straight in a row did not give a decent pull back yet, as long the pull back did not stay above 2960(Resistance) level, my bias will still remain bearish. To the downside, 2850(Support) is my next immediate support level to wathc out.

Friday Indicator

STI managed to closed just above 2900 after went down as low as 2887.82, it closed at 2903.6, my Friday Indicator levels for this week:

61.8%: 2927
50%: 2919
38.2%: 2912

I'm bullish if it closed above 2919 today, bearish otherwise.

At the same time, for mid term indication, since STI started to drop over past two weeks, I have levels for the past two weeks range as well:

61.8%: 2965
50%: 2951
38.2%: 2918

The All-Time Good stocks

They have a good track record over time, they are in a nice uptrending keep going higher and higher in good time and also bad times. They should be our focus to make money, especially for defensive investors.

My top pick(defensive):

Singtel
Starhub
FnN
SPH

Maybank Kim Eng Research (dated 8th May) picked nine stocks from three categories for this year, below research are from Kim Eng Research:

CapitaMall
M1
SGX
Starhub
Venture
SPH
ST Engg
Kepcorp
Sembmar


Clear dividend policy or quantum. This is the first category and encompasses CMT, SGX, M1, StarHub and Venture. These companies have a clear policy of paying either a fixed dividend per share per year
or a certain quantum of their annual earnings as dividends. Given their strong balance sheets and free cash flow generation in excess of their dividend payments, we are confident that they will uphold this policy.


Proven dividend track record. The second category comprises SPH and STE. Both currently do not have a fixed dividend policy but can lay claim to an excellent track record of almost 100% payout of their annual
earnings as dividends. A long operating history and sizeable cash pile, coupled with high barriers to entry, support our view that the duo will continue to pay attractive dividends despite global economic volatility.


Growth stocks with respectable yields. Keppel Corp and SMM fall under our third category. They made it into our portfolio as we view them as leaders in the still healthy and thriving oil exploration and production industries. We expect both to deliver above-market earnings growth over the next few years on account of their robust and growing orderbooks. Also heartening is the remarkable discipline of both management teams to enhance shareholders’ value by paying out respectable dividends to maintain an efficient balance sheet.

Data: Kim Eng Research

STI at 2900 Support

STI has dropped sharply in past five days. It closed at 2900-- its lowest since 2 Feb this year. The sentiment is very bearish on Greece and Eur debt issue again. At the same time, market can to slap back fast anytime as it dropped extend now.

Weekly Pivot

STI weekly pivot is at 2990 for this week.

R3: 3061
R2: 3037
R1: 3014
PP: 2990
S1: 2967
S2: 2943
S3: 2920

Market in The Range

Good morning everyone.

I had few posts for the past two trading days, the market continue its consolidation--trading in the range. Last Friday Dow's down of 168 points sparked some bearishness in the market but it's basically still in the range trading, it hit top resistance level 13,260 and reversed down, nothing more than that.

Dow: We are now in the middle of the trading range 13,260-12,730, it was closed at 13,038 last week, 38 points above 13,000.

STI: It has been conlidated over past 13 weeks or since Feb, in the range of 2900-3033, under its long term downtrend line as shown in the chart below. STI need to break above this downtrend line in order to move higher.

Will update soon.

Stocks In Play Now

These stocks are bullish now and poised to move higher.

Genting sp
SIA Engg
Ezra
Swiber
Sembcorp
Sembmar
Sakari
Wilmar
Indoagri
Noble

Biosensor Bullish

Biosensor long entry triggered based on bullish reversal candlesticks and MACD histogram.

It's 1.355, +2c now.

Commodity Bounced

First trading day after holiday, I see some bullishness in the market. Especially the recent deeply depressed commodities getting a bounce now, bullish counters:

Sakari +6c @2.03
Noble +2c @1.2
Indoagri +2c @ 1.445
Olam +2c @ 2.29
Wilmar +3c @ 4.9
First res +2.5c @ 1.905

Data as at 9.57am.