For a trader, winning is extremly dangerous if you haven't learned how to monitor and control yourself.

The Secret Recipe: Trading Success = Winning Trading System - U


Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Market Going to be Choppy

STI did not rebound as what I expected. The shortlived rebounce after opening soon was erased by bears.
It ended with 63 points down at 2821.

My point of view( objective and subjective) at this stage is: the big picture is the market is obviously dominated by bears, but the recent overdone moves really increases the probability of a deeper rebounce to upside, which will make trading decision very tricky, as the volatility increased tremendously, see below chart, it surged from 25 to as high as 48 within past five trading days, a number more than 30 means extremely fear for VIX. It means market is going to be choppy, the upside/downside swing will be very big.

The strategies I will apply:
1) No specific bias, watch out the support and resistance levels, watch the price action to see is there any reversal candlestick patterns at these levels, get in with stop loss pre-determined.  Must determine a "non negotiable cut-loss" point to safe guard capital. Remember: wrong trade doesn't make you a failure, maybe there was no such thing as a failure, unless something positive and useful isn't learned from the experience.

2) Do not react/trade too emotionally with intraday swing as the swing going to big, very volatile. So a tight stop loss maybe easily stopped out. Set your entry level with confidence and wait for it come to you. My momentum chart tells me market is at extreme low level( below is today's STI Momentum chart. It is at oversold extreme (blue line) but not turn up yet.., and I believe it will turns to upside at any point of time from now on)



P.S: As I'm writing now(11.40pm), Dow Jones dropped 435 points at 10800. It's going to be a choppy market again tomorrow...

Will update you again.

No comments: