For the week ended Apr 4, 2026, global equity markets staged their first meaningful relief rally since the Iran war began, as tentative signs of de-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz reignited risk appetite. U.S. indexes logged their first winning week since the conflict started, with the S&P 500 advancing 3.4%, the Dow rising nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq leading the charge with a 4.4% gain — its best weekly performance since November. In China and Hong Kong, markets ended the shortened week in mixed-to-modest positive territory, as improving domestic PMI data offset persistent geopolitical headwinds, the Shanghai Composite ended with modest loss of 0.86%, and the Hang Seng gaining 0.66%. In Singapore, the STI regained the 5,000 mark on Friday before late selling emerged once oil crossed US$110 a barrel, though the index still recorded a 1% weekly gain.
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United States
Market Overview
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led all major indexes higher, logging its best week since November, while the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced 3.36% and 2.96%, respectively. The holiday-shortened week — markets closed Friday for Good Friday — ended as a tale of two halves. Early sessions surged on de-escalation optimism, but Trump's Wednesday night address reintroduced uncertainty, with WTI crude spiking 11.4% to US$111.54/barrel — its highest since June 2022. Stocks recovered Thursday after Iranian state media reported that Iran and Oman were drafting a Strait of Hormuz monitoring protocol, providing late-week stability.
(Refer to the major indices’ weekly
performance tables below.)
(Refer to the major indices’ monthly performance tables for March below.)
Major Indices – Weekly Performance
· Dow Jones: +2.96%
· S&P 500: +3.36%
· Nasdaq Composite: +4.44%
Key Highlights and Outlook
1️⃣ Iran war: one step forward,
one step back
Early-week optimism that the conflict may wind down fuelled a sharp rally, but
Trump's Wednesday address focused more on escalation than peace negotiations,
with no clear timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Reports that Iran
and Oman are developing a monitoring protocol for Strait traffic provided a
late-week stabilisation.
2️⃣ Oil: the key variable
WTI crude surged 11.4% to $111.54/barrel (highest since June 2022) after
Trump’s address. A 3–4 week disruption may ease prices and lift equities; a 3–4
month closure risks supply shortages, higher prices, and elevated recession
risk, especially outside the U.S..
3️⃣ Labour market broadly
resilient
March nonfarm payrolls added 178k jobs (vs. expectations), released Friday when
markets were closed. ADP private payrolls showed 62k (vs. 40k expected), and
jobless claims fell to 202k, below forecasts, supporting the
“higher-for-longer” rates narrative.
4️⃣ISM manufacturing expands for
third straight month
ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in
March (vs. estimates), driven by new orders and production. However, employment
contracted for the 30th consecutive month, and price pressures hit their
highest since June 2022.
5️⃣ Consumer confidence edges up; job
openings slip
Consumer Confidence rose to 91.8 (second
monthly gain), though still below 2021 levels. Job openings dropped to 6.9M in
February from 7.2M in January, and hiring fell to its lowest since 2020.
6️⃣Fed and rates: no cuts expected
Markets now price in zero rate cuts for
2026 after the Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7% (from 2.4%).
The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.31%, down from 4.44% after Powell eased
some inflation concerns.
7️⃣Tesla delivers a miss
Tesla shares fell >5% after Q1
vehicle deliveries missed analyst estimates, pressuring the consumer
discretionary sector.
S&P 500 Sectors in Focus
All 11 sectors closed positive except
Energy (XLE), which fell 5.29%. Technology (XLK) and Communication Services
(XLC) led; Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged—opposite of the
prior week.
(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly
performance table below.)
Technical Snapshot
All three major indexes closed near
their 200-day moving average, snapping a five-week downtrend. SPX closed just
points below its 200dma.
π Weekly charts:
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China / Hong Kong
Market Overview
Chinese and Hong Kong equities ended a
mixed week, balancing encouraging domestic economic signals against the ongoing
backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty tied to the Strait of Hormuz. The blue
chip benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 1.37%, and the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) retreated
0.86%, and the Hang Seng Index added 0.66% for the week. China's mainland
markets will open on Friday but close on Monday for the Qingming Festival,
while Hong Kong markets were shut from Friday through Tuesday for Easter and
local public holidays.
·
CSI 300: -1.37%
· Shanghai Composite: -0.86%
· Hang Seng Index: +0.66%
Key Highlights and outlook
1️⃣ PMI rebound broad-based
Official Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March (fastest expansion in a year),
after two months of contraction. Nonmanufacturing PMI improved to 50.1, and
S&P Global/RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI hit 50.8 (4th straight
month of expansion), signaling momentum across state and private firms.
2️⃣ Rising input costs temper
the recovery narrative
Both official and private PMIs flagged higher input costs, indicating an
uneven, cost-driven recovery with emerging margin pressure as a key risk.
3️⃣ China & Pakistan propose
5-point peace plan
China and Pakistan jointly proposed a
peace framework calling for an immediate ceasefire, renewed negotiations, and
protection of critical shipping routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz,
emphasizing UN-led multilateral cooperation.
4️⃣ China scraps VAT export rebates
on clean energy
Effective April 1, China removed VAT
export rebates on solar components, batteries, and industrial materials to
address overcapacity and trade tensions. This raises export costs and may
accelerate sector consolidation and margin pressure.
5️⃣ Strait of Hormuz: Asia's outsized
exposure
Iran’s closure disrupted ~20% of global
oil supplies. China, India, Japan, and South Korea together account for ~75% of
oil exports from the region, heightening exposure to prolonged disruption.
(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)
π Weekly charts:
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Singapore
Market Overview
STI regained 5,000 on Friday before late
selling as oil crossed $110/barrel, still posting a ~1% weekly gain. Singapore
showed relative resilience due to defensive sectors and safe-haven status, but
remains exposed as a key refining/transit hub (Jurong Island processes up to
1.5M bpd).
Banks: DBS / OCBC / UOB
The three banks (~50% of STI weight)
tracked the mid-week recovery but faced Thursday headwinds as oil spiked.
Higher-for-longer rates support net interest margins; UOB and OCBC showed
margin stabilization in Q4 2025. OCBC declared a S$0.58 cash dividend, ex-date
23 April 2026.
Top Performers of the Week
Sembcorp Industries and OCBC were key
gainers for the 2nd consecutive week.
Technical Snapshot
STI closes above all its major MAs but
still within its sideway consolidation since Feb peak.
(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)
π Weekly chart:
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Week Ahead (7–11 April 2026)
·
Thursday (U.S.): February PCE Price
Index — the Fed's preferred inflation measure; expected to show the impact of
early-stage oil price pass-through on consumer prices.
·
Thursday (U.S.): Delta Air Lines
earnings — a bellwether for travel demand and airline cost pressures amid
elevated jet fuel prices.
·
Ongoing: Middle East developments and
Strait of Hormuz oil flow updates remain the singular macro variable markets
are trading around. Any fresh signals on de-escalation — or escalation — will
set the tone for equities globally.
· Singapore:
Monitor bank-related news ahead of OCBC's ex-dividend on 23 April; broader STI
direction likely to be set by oil price trajectory and U.S. market sentiment.
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