Stocks Climb Higher Expecting Rate Cuts

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 6, major U.S. equities finished higher, extending the previous week’s momentum amid growing expectations of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led the advance with a 0.91% weekly gain, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) also edged higher, adding 0.31%.

As we move into the final weeks of 2025, markets have delivered double-digit gains across all major U.S. indexes. Year-to-date, the SPX is up roughly 17%, while the COMP has climbed about 22%. Refer to the table below for the major indexes' weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed likely to cut interest rates at its December meeting, which will be held on December 9-10. It’s expected it aiming to bring rates to a neutral level (3.0%–3.5%) amid contained inflation and a softer near-term economic outlook. 

2.    The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2% in November, down from 48.7% in October, signaling a continued slowdown in manufacturing activity. In contrast, the services sector showed modest improvement, with the Services PMI edging up 0.2 percentage points to 52.6%—its highest level in nine months. 

3.    Private payrolls saw their largest decline since 2023, with ADP reporting a 32k drop in November, reversing October’s revised 47k gain. ADP noted the slowdown was broad-based, led by weakness among small businesses. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 191k, the lowest since September 2022. 

4.    September inflation was little changed, with the PCE index rising 0.3% month-over-month, in line with August, and core PCE up 0.2%, also matching the prior month. Both measures were 2.8% higher year-over-year. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s preliminary December Consumer Sentiment Index rose 2.3 points to 53.3, supported by improved personal finance expectations. One-year ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.1%, the lowest since January 2025. 

5.    A Santa Claus rally has occurred 73% of the time since 1980, with the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of January delivering an average S&P 500 gain of 1.1%. More broadly, the market has enjoyed a strong run since April, with the S&P 500(SPX) up about 38% and only one 5% pullback in November. 

SPX sectors in play

Six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors gained for the week, with growth stocks leading the way. Technology related stocks drove the rally, supported by Technology(XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC), while Utilities (XLU) lagged, reflecting a risk-on market sentiment. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

The S&P 500 (SPX) notched its second consecutive weekly gain, closing at a new high. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also logged their second straight weekly advances, with uptrends remaining firmly intact across all three major indexes. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets advanced as enthusiasm for domestic technology and artificial intelligence trades eclipsed data pointing to an economic slowdown. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 0.37% and the blue-chip CSI 300 rose 1.28%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 0.87%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth straight month, though it inched up to 49.2 in November, while services activity softened as earlier holiday-driven support faded. 

2.    The latest PMI data reinforced signs of slowing momentum in China’s Q4 recovery. The prolonged property downturn—stemming from the 2020 “three red lines” policy tightening—remains a central risk, weighing on consumption and adding deflationary pressure. Even so, most analysts still expect China to achieve its ~5% annual growth target without additional policy stimulus this year. 

3.   High-tech production remained resilient, but persistent weakness tied to the property sector, alongside soft demand and continued U.S. trade pressures, underscores an uneven recovery across China’s economy. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) edged up 0.16% this week to close at 4,531.36, continuing to consolidate within its four-week trading range near record levels. As 2025 draws to a close, the STI has delivered a strong ~20% year-to-date gain. As highlighted last week, JPMorgan recently raised its 12-month STI target to 6,000 from 5,000, citing improving market liquidity, a pickup in IPO activity, and ongoing wealth management growth. Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.