Bullish December Ahead: Fed Easing Signals Meet Market Seasonality

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Nov 28, U.S. equities finished the holiday-shortened week higher, supported by growing expectations of a December rate cut. A series of softer-than-expected economic data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone, keeping market sentiment upbeat ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite(COMP) posted strong returns, rebounding from the prior week’s sell-off as concerns regarding elevated valuations and spending on artificial intelligence (AI) appeared to take a back seat to optimism around the growth potential from the technology. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance.

After a brief wobble in early November, stocks regained momentum, with the S&P 500 (SPX) ending the month slightly higher. Seasonality also supports a constructive outlook: historically, the post-Thanksgiving period tends to deliver solid returns. Over the past 30 years, December has averaged a gain of around 1%, with markets rising roughly 70% of the time. Refer to below major indexes performance for the month of November.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    The probability of a Fed rate cut in December rose to 86.9% by the end of Friday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. FOMC meeting is scheduled on 9-10 December. 

2.    Delayed data released during the week including retail sales increased by 0.2% in September, down from 0.6% in August and below consensus for around 0.4% increase; September PPI rose 0.3% in line with consensus estimates. 

3.    Labor Market Mixed: Initial jobless claims fell to a seven-month low (216k), signalling ongoing resilience, but continuing claims rose to 1.96 million, near this year’s high—pointing to softening in longer-term employment conditions. Consumer confidence also slid sharply to 88.7, the weakest since April. 

4.    Fed’s Beige Book Signals Cooling Activity: The Fed’s latest Beige Book showed largely flat economic activity, slight declines in employment, and moderate price increases—much of it driven by tariff-related cost pressures. Consumer spending softened further, though high-end retail remained resilient. 

5.    Economic data in focus in coming week: ISM manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday Dec 1, September PCE( key Fed inflation indicators) rescheduled to Dec 5. 

SPX sectors in play

All the eleven S&P sectors posted gains for the week. Tech dominated Consumer Discretionary(XLY) and Tech(XLK) were top performers, Energy(XLE) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

The S&P 500 (SPX) has recouped most of its early November losses over the past five trading sessions, marking five consecutive days of gains. During this period, the SPX rose from 6,538.76 to 6,849.09, representing a 4.7% gain, and closed the week with a strong 3.73% weekly advance. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also posted robust weekly gains of 4.91% and 3.18%, respectively(refer to the above weekly performance table). Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets advanced as investors enthusiasm for domestic technology and AI trades outweighed growth slowdown concerns. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.4% and the blue-chip CSI 300 rose 1.64%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 2.53%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Profits in China’s industrial sector unexpectedly fell 5.5% in October year on year, the country’s statistics office reported. The drop in industrial profits came after increases of more than 20% in each of the prior two months, adding to evidence that China’s economy lost momentum in the fourth quarter. It followed data earlier this month showing that China’s producer price index remained in negative territory in November for the 37th month, even after Beijing launched its so-called anti-involution campaign aimed at curbing price wars and excessive output in industries from food delivery to car manufacturing. Nevertheless, most analysts believe that China will meet its official growth goal of about 5% this year. 

2.    Economic data in focus in coming week: China will release its Nov PMI. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 1.23% to close at 4,523.96 this week, recovering most of last week’s losses. JP Morgan upgraded DBS to a $70 target, OCBC to ‘overweight’, SGX to ‘overweight’ with $18.50 target, and UOB to ‘neutral’, citing Singapore’s evolving role as a financial centre and supportive policy initiatives. The analysts also raised their STI 12-month target to 6,000 points from 5,000, driven by improved market liquidity, IPO activity, and wealth management growth, while UOB faces lingering credit risks.

Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Markets Retreat as AI Concerns Weigh

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Nov 21, major U.S. stock indexes ended lower despite upbeat corporate earnings and encouraging government economic data. Global markets likewise faced renewed volatility, with equities closing the week in choppy trading and extending the worst downturn since the tariff-driven sell-offs in April.

The weakness partly reflected concerns in the technology sector, as a strong earnings report from NVIDIA failed to stem the correction across tech stocks, with investors taking profits amid ongoing “bubble” chatter. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) recorded the largest losses, while the large-cap S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished about 4.4% below the record high reached in late October. A sharp rebound during volatile trading on Friday helped trim the deeper losses seen earlier in the week. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    On Thursday, SPX had a 3.49% swing from day high to close, and Nasdaq swung a stunning 500bps from high to low ending not far off the lows. Since 1957 there have been 8 instances where the S&P 500(SPX) gaps up more than 1% only to reverse and close in the red. On the bright side here is SPX’s average performance after these 8 instances: 1 day later +233bps, 1 week later +288bps, 1 month later +472bps. 

2.    Fed’s next move on interest rates. Ambiguity around the Fed’s policy path remains unhelpful, with the central bank struggling to obtain a clear read on the economy due to shutdown-related data disruptions. According to CME Group futures data, as of Friday there was nearly a 70% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting, up from 44% a week earlier. 

3.    NVIDIA beats expectations, but investors remain cautious. NVIDIA, the largest company in the S&P 500 by market cap, reported record revenue and issued a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter forecast driven by robust AI chip demand, yet investors remained wary. 

4.    Delayed jobs report paints a mixed picture. The long-delayed September jobs report showed stronger-than-expected job gains of 119k, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years. The BLS said the next report, covering November, will be released on December 16, while the October report has been cancelled.

 

SPX sectors in play

Only three of the eleven S&P sectors posted gains for the week. Defensive areas outperformed, led by Health Care (XLV), which advanced 1.83%, and Consumer Staples (XLP), up 0.83%, while Communication Services (XLC) eked out a modest 0.51% gain.

Most other sectors finished lower, with weakness concentrated in rate-sensitive and growth-oriented segments. Technology (XLK) was the biggest laggard, falling 5.19%, reflecting profit-taking and valuation concerns. Energy (XLE) declined 2.83% amid softer crude prices, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) slipped 2.33%, weighed down by mixed spending signals. Broader benchmarks tracked this risk-off tone, with the SPY down 1.92% on the week. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All three major indexes posted weekly losses ranging from 1.91% to 2.74%, marking a concerning technical shift as each closed below their respective 50-day moving averages—a warning sign for potential weakness ahead. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets recorded a weekly loss, mirroring the drop on Wall Street, as investor concerns about frothy valuations in AI-focused names dampened risk appetite. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) sank 3.90% and the blue-chip CSI 300 fell 3.77%. Friday marked the second week of declines for the CSI 300 Index, which rose to its highest level in almost four years earlier in November amid optimism about China’s technology development. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index dropped 5.09%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China's government is considering new measures to revive its ailing property market amid concerns that further weakness could destabilize the financial system, Bloomberg reported. Measures under consideration include providing mortgage subsidies nationwide for first-time buyers, raising income tax rebates for mortgage borrowers, and cutting home transaction costs. 

2.   The proposed measures come as China's housing market slump deepened in its fourth year. New home prices in 70 cities (excluding state-subsidized housing) fell in October at the fastest pace in a year, while existing home values recorded the biggest drop in 13 months. The property downturn has become a major growth headwind and worsened the deflation that has stalked the economy since early 2023. Last month, Fitch Ratings projected further weakness in China's property sector in 2026 and warned the crisis could lead to further deterioration in asset quality for China's banks. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) fell 1.69% to close at 4469.14 this week, snapping a multi-week winning streak as selling pressure broadened across the market. All but three index components posted losses for the week, with weakness concentrated in property, logistics, and industrial sectors. Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Longest Government Shutdown in History Ends

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Nov 14, major U.S. stock indexes finished mixed, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) and S&P 500 Index(SPX) posted modest gains while the Nasdaq Composite(COMP) index lost ground. Concerns regarding elevated valuations and increased scrutiny around artificial intelligence (AI) spending seemed to help drive a rotation away from many of the growth-oriented stocks that have helped propel indexes to recent all-time highs. However, a volatile trading session on Friday with limited major headlines led to some indexes recovering their losses and closing the week higher.

In more positive news, the longest U.S. government shutdown on record(43 days) came to an end on Wednesday night after President Donald Trump signed a spending bill that will keep the government funded through January 30. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    The 43-day U.S. shutdown concluded with a funding bill extending operations through January 30, 2026. Federal workers will receive backpay, and critical programs like SNAP are restored. 

2.    The shutdown is estimated to reduce fourth-quarter 2025 economic growth by 1.5 percentage points, lowering projections to 1.0%-1.5%. Nonetheless, we expect a gradual recovery in the first quarter and through 2026.

3.    December rate cut odds decline amid cautious Fed commentary. The probability of a rate cut following the Fed’s December meeting declined to around 46% as of Friday afternoon, down from about 67% the prior Friday and close to 95% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

SPX sectors in play

Four out of 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains. Health Care(XLV) and Energy(XLE) stocks led the gains while growth stocks continued to underperform, including Technology(XLK), Communication Sevices(XLC) and Consumer Discretionary(XLY). Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All the three major indexes weekly candlesticks were largely within its previous weekly trading range. Both SPX and Nasdaq indexes tested 50dma and rebounded, 2^nd time respectively for the past two weeks, while DJI index appears more resilient, stays around its 20dma. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets retreated as investors pocketed gains a week after the leading domestic benchmark rose to its highest level in almost four years. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 0.18% and the blue-chip CSI 300 fell 1.08%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index added 1.26%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Alibaba(BABA): According to WSJ report, Alibaba Group denied a report that said it provides tech support for the Chinese military to target the U.S. The Financial Times reported Friday that it viewed a White House national security memo that includes declassified intelligence on how Alibaba supplies the People's Liberation Army with capabilities that could threaten U.S. security. The Financial Times said in its report that it couldn't independently verify the claims. American depositary shares of Alibaba closed down 3.8% at $153.80 on Friday.

2.    The latest batch of official indicators showed that China’s economy lost steam as it entered the fourth quarter. Fixed asset investment shrank 1.7% in the first 10 months of the year, a record drop for the period, according to China’s statistics bureau. Industrial production rose a weaker-than-expected 4.9% in October from a year ago, while retail sales rose 2.9%, the fifth straight month of slower growth. 

3.    China’s housing market, now in its fourth year of a slump, remained under pressure. New home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, fell 0.45% in October from September, the steepest decline in a year, while existing home values fell 0.66%, the biggest drop in 13 months, Bloomberg reported. The ongoing malaise in China’s property market has been a major growth headwind, making consumers reluctant to spend and worsening the deflation that has stalked China’s economy since early 2023. 

4.    While the data showed that China’s economy weakened more than expected in October, most economists believe that Beijing’s official growth target of about 5% this year is still manageable, particularly after the U.S. and China struck a one-year trade truce at talks in South Korea last month. Moreover, the central government has approved stimulus totaling RMB 1 trillion since the end of September to bolster capital expenditure, and economists believe the effects of the stimulus should start to materialize in the near term.

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 1.2% to close at 4546.07 this week, the STI index hit new record at its 4^th week consecutive gains. JMH, SingTel and OCBC are among the top gainers for the week. Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Stocks Retreat Amid Tech Sell-off

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.   Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Nov 7, major U.S. stock indexes finished the week lower, as concerns regarding elevated valuations and increased scrutiny around artificial intelligence (AI) spending weighed on many of the growth-oriented stocks that have driven indexes’ rapid rise since early April. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite(COMP) led major indexes lower. The U.S. federal government shutdown reached the longest on record during the week, which also appeared to weigh on broader sentiment. Worries about the continuing lack of government data and the potential impact of the shutdown on gross domestic product growth also rose. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance.\

A snapshot of AI and Nvidia(NVDA):

Since ChatGPT’s release in late 2022, the Magnificent Seven have soared nearly 190%, lifting the S&P 500 by 75%, but also creating unprecedented market concentration. Today, the top 10 stocks account for over 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. 

At the center of this rally is NVIDIA, the cornerstone of the AI ecosystem, which recently became the first company in history to surpass a $5 trillion market cap. For context, that’s

• Larger than five of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors;
• Equal to 60% of the entire Russell 2000 small-cap universe;
• Half the size of the STOXX 600, Europe’s large-cap benchmark; and
• Bigger than Germany’s GDP. 

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    October layoffs highest in over 20 years. Private-sector released ADP’s October employment report on Wednesday. The private employers added 42k jobs during the month, rebounding after two consecutive months of declines. Meanwhile, a report released Thursday from consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that employers have cut nearly 1.1 million jobs this year through October, a 65% increase over the same period last year and a 44% jump from the number of job cuts in the entirety of 2024. October’s 153,074 job cuts were the most for the month since 2003. 

2.    Recent volatility underscores the risks of historic market concentration, with the top 10 stocks now representing over 40% of the S&P 500’s market cap. Bubble concerns are emerging, but today’s tech leaders are profitable and cash-rich while the Fed is loosening its policy. 

3.    Services activity returns to growth; manufacturing shrinks for eighth month in a row. October ISM Services PMI registering a reading of 52.4% versus 50.0% in September. On the other hand, manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October, with ISM’s Manufacturing PMI declining to 48.7% from September’s reading of 49.1%. 

4.    Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since 2022. November Index of Consumer Sentiment reading dropped 3.3 points month over month to 50.3, the lowest since the index’s record low in June 2022

 

SPX sectors in play

Seven out of 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains. Energy(XLE) and Health Care(XLV) stocks led the gains while growth stocks lagged, including Technology(XLK), Communication Sevices(XLC) and Consumer Discretionary(XLY). The Tech(XLK) sector now 36% of the whole SPX, many sector indexes tested their 50 daily moving  average(DMA) on Friday and rebounded. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All the three major indexes declined this week. Both SPX and Nasdaq indexes tested 50dma and rebounded. The uptrend for all three major indexes have been intact so far. Watch closely their 50dma in coming week. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets edged higher for the week as easing U.S.-China trade tensions boosted risk appetite. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) rose 1.08% and the blue-chip CSI 300 added 0.82%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 1.29%. The latest weekly gain took the CSI 300 Index, the main onshore benchmark, to its highest level in nearly four years despite concerns about China’s growth outlook.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

Sentiment improved after the U.S. and China reached a one-year truce in their trade fight after the presidents of both countries met the prior week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea. Longer term, prolonged strategic competition remains the underlying dynamic between the U.S. and China, which could play out in areas beyond trade.

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 1.44% to close at 4492.24 this week, the STI index outperformed all major indexes in my table above, thanks to the two banks DBS and OCBC which are heavyweight index components, also SingTel- another heavyweight component stocks which is the top weekly performer with 8.94% gains. Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.