Muted Reaction to NVDA’s Earnings, Inflation Held Steady

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Aug 29, U.S. equity indexes ended modestly lower on relatively light trading volumes as markets headed into a holiday weekend and the unofficial end of summer. (U.S. markets are closed Monday, September 1 for a public holiday.) Both the Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed modestly lower. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) logged a new record high during the week before losing ground on Friday, ultimately finishing the week lower.

For the week, much of the attention was focused on chipmaker NVIDIA’s(NVDA) earnings release. The world’s most valuable company by market capitalization reported results that generally beat FactSet consensus estimates, the numbers appeared strong enough to ease some recent concerns around the artificial intelligence-driven rally that has helped propel indexes to all-time highs this year. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed rate cut expectations in coming September meeting ( Sep 16-17) are shifting, with growing anticipation of interest rate cuts. This has sparked renewed interest and a rotation toward rate-sensitive sectors such as REITs.

2.    Inflation unchanged in July. Latest core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index reading- the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, showed a 0.3% increase in prices month-on-month, roughly in line with June’s reading and consensus estimates. 

3.    All eyes were on NVIDIA — the world’s most valuable company and a bellwether for AI — as it reported earnings this season. Its significance is underscored by a staggering $4.2 trillion market capitalization, now accounting for 8% of the SPX. Given the stock’s outsized influence on the index and its remarkable rally (up 35% this year, following gains of 171% and 239% in the prior two years), NVIDIA’s quarterly results were among the most anticipated of this earnings season. The results were solid, but the stock reaction was muted. 

4.    Trump announces removal of Fed governor. Donald Trump announced that he would be firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, citing allegations that she committed mortgage fraud. Cook filed a lawsuit seeking to block the firing on Thursday, and a spokesperson for the Fed said the central bank will abide by any court decision. 

5.    Gold has been in sideway consolidation for last four months and expected to have a bullish breakout above 3500 level(gold Dec future), SPDR Gold ETF(GLD) is one of our top picks with bullish view towards the end of the year. 

SPX sectors in play

Five out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains. The energy(XLE), financial(XLF) and materials(XLB) sectors posted the biggest gains. Consumer Staples(XLP) and Utilities(XLI) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All the three major indexes were largely trading within their prior week’s range. Both the SPX and Nasdaq(COMP) will end the 4^th consecutive monthly gains for August. The indexes have extended it bullish thus far, be mindful for any profit-taking going forward as Sep and Oct have historically brought increased market fluctuations and softer returns. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets advanced, extending a recent rally. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) advanced 0.84% and the blue-chip CSI 300 added 2.71%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index shed 1.03%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).  

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s stock markets have been on a tear in recent weeks. The CSI 300 has gained about 10% in August, ranking among the best-performing major indexes, and average daily turnover volume so far this month is on track for a record high, according to Bloomberg. Many analysts believe that ample domestic liquidity, rather than a strong economy, is fueling the rally as cash-rich households in China seek higher returns amid low interest rates and a lack of compelling investment options. The amount of margin debt taken out to buy stocks climbed to its highest level since 2015, according to Bloomberg, suggesting elevated retail interest in the stock market. 

2.    China reported that industrial profits fell a less-than-expected 1.5% in July, as strong tech sector earnings outweighed weakness in industries straining under weak demand and deflationary pressures. However, other indicators released earlier this month showed that China’s economy lost momentum in July as retail sales, factory activity, and fixed asset investment disappointed. Many economists believe that data in the coming months will confirm China’s growth slowdown and lead to officials rolling out more stimulus, possibly as soon as September, to cushion the impact of the U.S.-sparked trade war. Refer to below .HSI stocks performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 0.39% to close at 4269.70 for the week, the index has continues its sideway consolidation since mid-Jul, and closed near top of the range.

The S-Reits sectors were among the top gainers of the week, in anticipation of the Fed’s September rate cut. Singapore’s latest 6-month T-bill yield fell to 1.44% as announced on Aug 28, it was the lowest level that yields have hit in the year to date and the 12th consecutive issuance since Mar 26 for which yields have declined. The decline treasury yield turning more investors to REITs which offer more attractive dividend returns in comparison. Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Fed: A Rate Cut in September Possible

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.   S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Aug 22, U.S. stock rallied sharply on Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, bringing the S&P 500(SPX) to a modest gain for the week. Large-cap value stocks outperformed their growth counterparts, which lost ground. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) finished the week lower, likely reflecting profit taking amid reemerging concerns about the sustainability of massive spending on infrastructure related to artificial intelligence. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed rate cut. At the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, Fed Chair Powell signaled that incoming data may warrant a shift in the Federal Reserve's current policy rate. Markets overall appeared to welcome the signal that interest rates could be heading lower. The probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting rose from about 75% to about 89%. According to CME FedWatch, markets are now pricing in two rate cuts this year, in September and December 

2.    Retail earnings point to a resilient consumer. In the week, large retailers like Walmart and Target reported earnings results that exceeded analyst expectations, despite uncertainty around tariffs and concerns that consumers may slow spending. Last month, online retail leader Amazon also saw strong 11% growth in its North American retail sales segment for the second quarter. In addition, home-improvement giants Home Depot and Lowe's reported that consumers continue to spend on small-scale home-improvement projects. 

3.    The S&P Global U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicated that business activity in August grew at the fastest pace so far this year. The composite PMI, which covers the services and manufacturing sectors, surprised to the upside at 55.4. It also marked the 31st consecutive month where the composite PMI came in above 50, the level that demarcates an expansion. 

4.    Jobless claims come in higher than expected. New applications for unemployment benefits increased to 235k in the week ended August 16, an uptick of 11k relative to the preceding seven-day period. 

SPX sectors in play

Nine out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, the energy(XLE), real estate(XLRE), financials(XLF), and materials(XLB) sectors posted the biggest gains. Large-cap value stocks outperformed their growth counterparts, which lost ground. Communication Services(XLC) and Tech(XLK) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Dow Jones Industrial Average( DJI) index had bullish breakout and hit record highs. While SPX and Nasdaq (COMP) both were largely traded within its two-week range and closed near record highs. All three indexes remain on uptrend. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets advanced as a recent stabilization in U.S.-China trade ties spurred risk-on sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) advanced 3.49% and the blue-chip CSI 300 rose 4.18%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index edged up 0.27%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).  

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

Retail investors have driven the Chinese stock market’s recent rally as cash-rich households seek better returns amid low interest rates and a lack of compelling investment options in China. The amount of margin debt taken out to buy stocks climbed to its highest level since 2015 the prior week, according to Bloomberg, and is roughly 10% away from hitting a record high.

Refer to below .HSI stocks performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 0.53% to close at 4253.02 for the week, the index has continues its sideway consolidation within five-week range. Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Stocks Climb to All-Time Highs on Rate Cut Hopes

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Aug 15, U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher, largely driven by some favorable economic data that helped fuel bets that the Federal Reserve would lower short-term interest rates at its next meeting in September. Small-cap stocks led the way, as the Russell 2000 Index outperformed the S&P 500 Index by the widest weekly margin since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI), S&P 500 Index(SPX), and Nasdaq Composite(COMP) also advanced, with the latter two notching record highs midweek before pulling back modestly by Friday’s close.

Refer to below major indexes weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Inflation remains manageable but not resolved. July’s CPI was in line with expectations, but sticky services inflation and rising producer prices suggest upside risks persist. The headline CPI held steady at 2.7%, thanks in part to a decline in gasoline prices. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, its highest level since February. Both figures came in largely in line with expectations, offering some relief to equity and bond investors. 

2.    Retail sales climb; consumer sentiment deteriorates on inflation concerns. Retail sales rose 0.5% month over month in July, while June’s reading was revised upward from a 0.6% to 0.9% gain. University of Michigan’s preliminary reading for its August Index of Consumer Sentiment, which unexpectedly dropped to 58.6 from July’s reading of 61.7. The month-over-month decline was largely driven by “rising worries about inflation.” 

3.    Fed rate cut. At its July meeting, the Fed held rates steady in the 4.25%–4.5% range. With inflation coming in less severe than feared and labor-market data showing signs of cooling, pushing market-implied odds of a September rate cut to more than 80%. 

4.    Tariff and trade news generally took a back seat to economic data and rate cut speculation for much of the week, although Monday brought news that the U.S. and China had agreed to extend the deadline for higher tariffs for another 90 days while a broader deal is negotiated. 

SPX sectors in play

Eight out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, led by the typical growth stocks, i.e. Health Care(XLV), Communication Services(XLC) and Consumer Discretionary(XLY) sectors, Utilities(XLU) and Consumer Staples(XLP) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both the Nasdaq(COMP) and SPX indexes closed at new records this week, while DJI index made intra-week record high but closed around its previous all-time high after some profit-taking. All three indexes remain on uptrend. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets advanced after the U.S. and China agreed to renew a tariff pause on each other’s products until November. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.70% and the blue-chip CSI 300 advanced 2.37%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 1.65%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).  

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Stocks rallied early in the week on news that recent negotiations with the U.S. resulted in an additional 90-day pause on higher tariffs, delaying a steep tariff hike that was set to take effect on Tuesday and extending a truce that was agreed to in May to allow time for further trade talks. The deadline extension seemed to give investors hope that trade relations between the world’s two largest economies will stabilize and ultimately lead to a broader agreement. 

2.    China’s statistics bureau reported that consumer price growth was flat year on year in July, dropping from June’s modest uptick that snapped a four-month streak of declines. Meanwhile, factory deflation continued for the 34th consecutive month with producer prices declining 3.6%, matching June’s reading at the lowest level since July 2023. 

3.    Several other indicators released later in the week showed that China’s economic activity slowed by more than expected in July. Retail sales rose 3.7% year on year during the month, down from 4.8% in June and the slowest pace since December, according to the country’s statistics bureau. Industrial output also slowed from the prior month, growing 5.7% year on year compared with a 6.8% rise in June, as did year-to-date fixed asset investment, which rose 1.6% versus 2.7% growth in the prior year. All three readings were below economists’ forecasts.

Refer to below .HSI stocks performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) retraced 0.22% to close at 4230.53 this week, the index has been in a sideway consolidation within its four-week range. Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Stocks Rebound on Solid Corporate Earnings

 

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Aug 8, U.S. stock indexes rebounded from the prior week’s sell-off, led by strong performance among technology and consumer discretionary stocks. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite(COMP) performed best, closing the week at a record high, followed by the S&P 500(SPX) and Dow Jones(DJI) indexes.

In trade policy news, the Trump administration’s new round of global tariffs kicked in on Thursday, though several large U.S. trading partners had already reached agreements prior to the week’s deadline, and the market reaction appeared to be more muted compared with other recent tariff actions. Other tariff-related headlines included news that President Donald Trump would double tariffs on Indian goods to 50% as a punishment for the country’s purchase of Russian oil, as well as reports that U.S. negotiations with Switzerland ended without reaching a deal, leaving levies on Swiss imports at 39%.  Refer to below major indexes weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Services sector- representing roughly 71% of the U.S. GDP- remains in expansion, though key readings continued to diverge in Jul. The Services PMI falling to 50.1, missing estimates of 51.3. 

2.    Corporate earnings have been stronger than expected, driving earnings growth estimates sharply higher to 9.7%, from 3.8% at the end of the second quarter. With 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly results, corporate earnings season is winding down. Walt Disney Company and McDonald's announced earnings that exceeded estimates2. Importantly, Walt Disney's revenue was about in line with forecasts, while that of McDonald's beat expectations2, indicating that, combined with other recent data, consumers appear to remain mostly resilient. 

3.    September rate cut probability rises. As of Friday afternoon, markets tracked by the CME FedWatch tool were indicating a roughly 90% chance of the Fed lowering rates at its next meeting. 

4.    Numerous stock-specific headlines helped drive market sentiment during the week. Notably, Apple announced that it would invest USD 100 billion—in addition to a previously announced USD 500 billion—in developing U.S.-based manufacturing over the next four years, which would reportedly exempt the company from the Trump administration’s steep tariffs on semiconductors. Shares of the iPhone maker closed the week 13.33% higher, helping support the broader indexes.

 

SPX sectors in play

Eight out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, led by Consumer Discretionary(XLY) and Tech(XLK) sectors, which the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite(COMP) to close the week at a record high. Health Care(XLV) and Energy(XLE) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

The Nasdaq(COMP) index closed at record high, the SPX also rebounded to near record highs hit in previous week. The DJI index within its six-week consolidation range near record high of 45073 level. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets rose for the week, helped by trade data underscoring the strong global demand for Chinese products despite the U.S.- sparked trade war. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 2.11% and the blue-chip CSI 300 advanced 1.23%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 1.43%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).  

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Total exports in July surged a larger-than-expected 7.2% from a year ago to USD 322 billion, according to data released by China’s customs authorities. Increased shipments to Europe, Southeast Asia, Australia, and other markets outweighed the continued slump in U.S.-bound shipments, which sank 22% year on year in July after falling 16.1% in June. The latest data showed that Chinese companies were able to compensate for the loss of U.S. business with increased sales to other markets. Weakness in China’s yuan currency, which fell against the U.S. dollar and other currencies in July, also boosted exports last month, analysts said. 

2.    Earlier in the week, a private survey showed an unexpected uptick last month in services activity, possibly indicating a turnaround in weak consumer sentiment. The S&P China services purchasing managers index rose to 52.6 in July from June’s 50.6 reading, the strongest growth in 14 months. While summer marks the peak season for services such as tourism, transportation, and entertainment, last month’s expansion showed the resilience of China’s services sector, which has been hit by sluggish consumer demand amid a prolonged housing downturn.

Refer to below .HSI stocks performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 2.07% this week, rebounded after previous week’s decline. The index has advanced 12% so far in 2025, outforming the U.S benchmark SPX and several regional peers.

Singapore’s stock market is drawing interest from institutional and retail investors alike, helped by a potent combination of equity market reforms, rising dividends, foreign fund inflows and country’s enduring appeal as a geopolitical safe haven, said market watchers. “We are in a bull market. And I’m going to tell you today that this is still a baby bull,” said Thilan Wickramasinghe, head of research at Maybank.

According to CLSA research, Singapore’s average dividend payout ratio of 60% is second only to Australia’s at 74% in Asia-Pacific according to CLSA Research. The Southeast Asian nation’s market appeal is also lifted by how the Singapore dollar has been strengthening against the greenback, appreciating about 6% year to date, with Jefferies reportedly forecasting that the currency could reach parity with the dollar in the next five years. Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.