Stocks Climb to Record Highs on Trade Deal News

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jul 25, The S&P 500 Index(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) climbed to record highs for 2^nd consecutive week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) rose 1.26%. Value stocks outpaced growth stocks throughout most of the week.

Stocks were supported by headlines around several new trade deals during the week, including announcements that the U.S. had reached agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Reports that the U.S. and European Union (EU) are progressing toward a deal ahead of August 1—which Trump has set as the deadline to impose 30% tariffs on European goods—also appeared to boost sentiment during the week.

Corporate earnings reported in the week from two of the Magnificent 7 stocks, including Google parent company Alphabet and Tesla had mixed responses. Alphabet added 4.39% while TSLA dropped 4.12% for the week. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance tables.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Q2 Earnings. With SPX forward PE ratio rising to over 22 times, the highest since 2021. Now it’s the earnings’ turn to drive further gains. The coming week of 28 Jul will be the busiest of this earnings season, with almost 40% of the SPX companies reporting results, including many among the Magnificent 7(Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amzon). 

2.    U.S. flash PMI data for Jul as reported in the week shows services PMI rising to 55.2 from 52.9 in June, meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.9 in June to 49.5 in Jul. 

3.    Trade Deals from risk to relief. Tariffs and trade have been the biggest source of uncertainty this year, triggering a near-20% decline in stocks in April. But this fog is gradually clearing as more trade deals are announced ahead the U.S. government's August 1 deadline. Last week's deal with Japan reduced threatened tariffs from 25% to 15% and included a $550 billion U.S. investment commitment. The deal likely provides a framework for other major countries as negotiations kick into high gear. 

4.    Fed rate cuts. Given the resilient economic data and upside risks to inflation, the Fed is likely to hold rates steady again when it meets this week Jul 29-30. But if clarity on the tariffs improves after August 1, a September cut is possible, with Powell potentially hinting at that at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole meeting on August 21-23. Market expects one to two cuts in the second half of 2025 now.

 

SPX sectors in play

All the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, Health Care (XLV) was the top gainer while Tech(XLK) and Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both the SPX and technology-heavy Nasdaq(COMP) making fresh record highs for 2^nd consecutive week. The DJI index is hovering at its record level. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets rose on hopes for an extension of a tariff truce with the U.S. ahead of another round of trade talks between both countries. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.67% and the blue-chip CSI 300 gained 1.69%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 2.27%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm, Sweden, this week for a third round of talks aimed extending the current trade deal, which expires in August.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    The Stockholm meeting between U.S. and China follows discussions in Geneva in May that produced a 90-day pause in tariffs and a second round in London in June that led to each country lifting export controls. News of the Stockholm talks raised hopes for a continued stabilization in U.S.-China relations after both countries had appeared on track for decoupling when the Trump administration imposed 145% tariffs on China in April. 

Refer to below .HSI stocks performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added a further 1.71% gains this week to its 5^th consecutive weekly gains. Remarkable. JP Morgan is expected STI could reach 5000 points this year. They raise their rating for the real-estate sector to overweight from neutral, citing lower rates. They name City Developments and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust as their top picks. Meanwhile, JP Morgan lowers its rating on industrials to neutral from overweight, noting that it's selective on the stocks due to their strong year-to-date performance.

Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Stocks Up on Solid Corporate Earnings

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jul 18, ehe S&P 500 Index(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) reached new records during the week, supported by solid corporate earnings reports and generally favorable economic data. Both indexes are now up about 7% to 8% this year thus far, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) ended in negative territory for the week but is up 4.23% year-to-date.

The Q2 corporate earnings season began in earnest last week, and thus far companies have beaten expectations. About 12% of companies have reported earnings, and of these, 86% have exceeded forecasts, well above the 10-year average of 75%. JP Morgan Chase(JPM), the largest U.S. bank, and Citigroup(C) both reported better-than-expected results. Well-known consumer-facing names such as PepsiCo, United Airlines, and Netflix also released reports that beat forecasts. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance tables.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation for June came out in line with expectations last week, with headline CPI up 2.7% year-over-year, a tick higher than forecasts of 2.6% and above last month's 2.4% reading. 

2.    Producer price index (PPI) inflation, where many investors expected to see tariff increases show up more acutely, came in lower than expectations. Headline PPI inflation was 2.3%, below forecasts of 2.5% and last month's revised 2.7% reading. 

3.    Retail sales surpassed forecasts, indicating the consumer remains healthy: U.S. retail sales for June were another sign that the consumer continues to spend. Overall retail sales climbed by 0.6% for the month, well above forecasts of 0.1% and last month's -0.9% reading. 

4.    Chipmaker NVIDIA announced that it had received permission from the Trump administration to sell its H2O artificial intelligence chips to China. NVIDIA, which hit the USD 4 trillion market capitalization level for the first time in early July, rallied on the announcement. 

5.    Tariffs continue to remain an overhang on markets, with investors in wait-and-see mode ahead of the new August 1 tariff deadline and potential sector tariffs. However, even as tariff rates have moved substantially higher since the beginning of the year, inflation has remained contained and economic growth has held up. 

SPX sectors in play

Eight out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, Tech(XLK) and Financials(XLF) were among top gainers. Energy(XLE) and Health Care(XLV) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Stock markets continued to gradually move higher, with the SPX and technology-heavy Nasdaq making fresh all-time highs. Both indexes are now up about 7% to 8% this year thus far.  The SPX is now up over 26% since the April 8 lows. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets recorded a weekly gain. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 0.69% and the blue-chip CSI 300 gained 1.09%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 2.84%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s GDP increased 5.2% in the Q2, compared with the Q1’s 5.4% growth pace. Analysts said the Q2’s higher-than-expected growth would likely ease pressure on Beijing to roll out further stimulus measures anytime soon. 

2.    Analysts cautioned that growth would likely slow in the year’s second half amid worsening deflation pressures, weak retail sales growth, and the potential for a flareup in U.S. trade tensions once a temporary deal expires in mid-August. Earlier this month, China reported that its producer price index fell the most in nearly two years in June, the 33rd straight month of factory deflation. 

3.    Persistent weakness in China’s housing market has also renewed calls for more stimulus from the central government. New home prices in 70 cities nationwide fell 0.27% in June month on month, while values for existing homes fell 0.61%, the statistics bureau reported Tuesday. Residential sales dropped 12.6% in June from a year earlier, the sharpest decline this year, according to Bloomberg. The data showed that China’s property slump—now in its fifth year—continues to weigh on consumer demand. 

Refer to below .HSI stocks performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) accelerated its upswing into 4^th week, gained further 2.49% to close at 4189.50 point this week. The bulls are strong and some analysts lift STI’s year end target to 4500 level.

Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

STI index stocks Year-To-Date return.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Tariffs 2.0 Kick in, Stocks Muted Response

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jul 11, U.S. stocks finished the week mostly lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP) holding up best. Tariff news dominated the headlines, but market reaction was muted compared with previous tariff announcements. There was little difference in performance between large-caps and small-caps, while growth stocks held up modestly better than value. In single-stock news, NVIDIA hit the $4 trillion market capitalization threshold for the first time, helping put the “mega” in the so-called Magnificent Seven group of mega-cap stocks. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance tables.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    New tariffs were announced this week on more than 20 countries, with the 90-day pause extended to August 1. Tariff rates vary widely — from 20%-50% — to be applied on August 1 unless countries reach trade deals sooner. 

2.    FOMC’s mid-June  meeting minutes show disagreement about policy direction. While “most” policymakers said that they anticipate cutting rates this year, two stated that they would be open to rate reductions as soon as the late-July FOMC meeting. Stocks showed little reaction to the FOMC minutes. 

3.    NVIDIA hit the $4 trillion market capitalization threshold for the first time in the week, helping put the “mega” in the so-called Magnificent Seven group of mega-cap stocks. NVDA closed at $164.92 by the week.

SPX sectors in play

Five out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, Energy(XLE) and Industrails(XLI) were among top gainers, while Financials (XLF) and Communication Services(XLC) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Stocks held near record highs set this week, aided by strong performance in the energy and industrial sectors that helped offset the risk-off sentiment driven by tariff headlines. Nasdaq(COMP) and SPX have been holding up quite well near record highs, while DJI retreated 1.02% near its all-time high. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets rose as data showing persistent deflation spurred hopes for more stimulus. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.09% and the blue-chip CSI 300 gained 0.82%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index edged up 0.93%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    The producer price index fell 3.6% in June from a year earlier, the country’s statistics bureau reported Wednesday. June’s decline was worse than economists’ forecasts and marked the 33rd month of factory deflation, as well as the biggest drop for producer prices in nearly two years, according to Bloomberg. The consumer price index unexpectedly rose 0.1%, snapping a four-month streak of declines. However, analysts said the increase was likely driven by recent stimulus measures rather than a sustained improvement in consumer confidence. 

2.    The latest inflation report raised the possibility that China’s leaders may roll out more stimulus to lift the economy out of a persistent cycle of falling prices, corporate profits, and wages. Earlier in July, officials at a high-level economic meeting chaired by China’s President Xi Jinping pledged to crack down on “disorderly” low-price competition and phase out outdated industrial capacity, Bloomberg reported, citing state-run media. The report underscored the urgency that China’s leaders have assigned to tackling deflation resulting from weak domestic demand.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) gained further 1.85% to close at 4087.81 point this week. The index has crossed its 4100 level intra-week for the first time, and on the up streak for 3^rd week consecutively which is remarkable. The uptrend is steady technically, with further upward move expected.

Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Stocks Hit Record Highs for Second Straight Week

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jul 4, U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week higher. The S&P 500 Index(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite(COMP) both closed at all-time highs for the second week in a row, gainer 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) advanced 2.30%. U.S. markets closed early Thursday and were closed Friday for a public holiday. Refer to below major indexes weekly performance tables.

Monthly Index performance for June as follows:

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Much of the focus this week centered around Trump’s “ Big Beautiful Bill”, which he signed into law in July fourth Independent Day ceremony. 

2.    Trade related headlines in the week. A trade deal reached with Vietnam and making comments around negotiations with other countries ahead of Jul 9 tariff deadline, when the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is expected to end. 

3.    U.S. economy data shows job growth remains resilient. Non-farm payroll data shows there were 147k jobs added in June, beat expectation. Meanwhile ISM manufacturing PMI was 49% in June, up from May’s reading of 48.5%. Services PMI was 50.8% in June, returned to growth after contracting for the first time in 11 months in May. 

SPX sectors in play

All the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gains, Technology(XLK) and Materials (XLB) led gains, while Communication Services(XLC) lagged after previous week’s strong gain, it registered record highs for 2^nd straight week. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

We have wrapped up 1^st half of the year and entering 2H in a very bullish note. Stock markets finished the 1H at all-time highs, while the SPX and COMP are both higher by more than 6% YTD. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets rose for the week ended Thursday. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.40% and the blue-chip CSI 300 gained 1.54%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index lost 1.52%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index improved in June to 49.7 from May’s 49.5 reading, China’s statistics bureau reported Monday. The latest manufacturing PMI reading captured the first full month after the U.S. and China agreed in May on a 90-day pause in their tariff war, which led to a temporary rebound in trade. Though the gauge stayed below the 50.0 reading that separates growth from contraction, it beat economists’ forecasts and raised doubts about whether Beijing would step up stimulus measures in the near term. 

2.    The Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 50.6 in June, a nine-month low, from May’s 51.1 reading, missing forecasts. Despite remaining in expansionary territory, June’s growth pace was the softest since last September as the pace of new business growth slowed, Caixin said in a statement. A gauge of employment fell for the third time in the past four months as service providers remained cautious about hiring.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) gained another 1.2% to close at 4013.62 point this week. Registered historical high after two-week straight up. Maybank Securities raised 2025E STI target to 4185 level on its 25 June update.

Refer to below table for STI index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.