For a trader, winning is extremly dangerous if you haven't learned how to monitor and control yourself.

The Secret Recipe: Trading Success = Winning Trading System - U


Sunday, February 16, 2025

U.S. Indexes Climb Toward Record Highs

Join SgTraderClub Facebook group HERE for daily stocks and market updates, and more.

Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Feb 14, major stock indexes finished higher with the Nasdaq Composite(COMP) leading the way, gaining 2.58% during the week. As measured by Russell indexes, growth stocks outperformed value shares for the second week this year. The S&P 500 Index(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite(COMP) both closed the week within 1% of all-time highs. Stocks had their best day of the week on Thursday, largely in response to Trump’s decision to not introduce new global tariffs, instead signing an order that—following further study—could lead to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on a country-by-country basis by April 1. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Higher inflation. The January consumer price index (CPI) came in hotter than expected, rising 0.5% from the prior month and 3% from a year ago, the strongest annual change since June. Core inflation ticked higher to 3.3% from 3.2%. Core inflation has been stuck around 3.3% for the past eight months, certainly higher than the Fed would like it to be. Offering a glimmer of hope is that rent inflation rose modestly last month. 

2.    Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations. At his semiannual testimony to the U.S. Senate, Powell reiterated that the Fed can be patient in cutting interest rates and that there is more work to do on inflation. Fed is comfortable keeping policy unchanged, but rate hikes are unlikely.

3.    Magnificent 7 stocks had their worst earnings season since 2022. The Magnificent 7 group of companies (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, NVIDIA, and Tesla) that comprise about a third of the S&P 500 weight has lost some of its luster so far this year. Their performance is lagging in 2025, while sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 was at its slowest since 2022. Increasing competition in the artificial intelligence (AI) arena and rising spending are raising concerns about valuations, which carry a 35% premium to the broader index. 

4.    International stocks such as the Stoxx 600 and Hang Seng Index both outperforming the SPX so far this year. 

SPX sectors in play

Nine of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Growth stocks outperformed value shares, Technology(XLK) and Communication Services(XLC) led the gains while Health Care(XLV) and Financials(XLF) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All three indexes still been in sideway rangebound within its four-week trading range. The S&P 500 Index(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite(COMP) both closed the week within 1% of all-time highs. Uptrend intact well on their weekly charts. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart


China/HK

China stock markets rose, lifted by hopes that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports may prove to be milder than expected following the Trump administration’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on the country’s products in early February. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.3% while the blue chip CSI 300 gained 1.19%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index surged 7.04%, its best weekly performance in four months, driven by strength in tech shares as investors bought up artificial intelligence names. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s consumer price index rose a higher-than-expected 0.5% in January from a year ago, accelerating from December’s 0.1% rise, according to the country’s statistics bureau. January’s increase marked the first pickup in consumer inflation since August and was likely driven by a spending surge ahead of the eight-day CNY holiday. However, the producer price index fell 2.3% in January, unchanged from December’s reading and marking the 28th consecutive month of factory deflation. Stamping out deflation is a matter of growing urgency for Beijing, which unleashed a slew of monetary and fiscal stimulus last September to bolster demand. But a yearslong housing slump has prompted people to save rather than spend, frustrating officials’ attempts to boost consumer spending. 

2.    Moody’s lowered its credit rating for troubled real estate company China Vanke for the second time this year, deeper into junk territory, citing its weakening financial performance. Moody’s latest action raised the possibility of default for Vanke, a state-backed developer that was once considered too big to fail. China’s government is working on a plan to help Vanke plug a funding gap of about USD 6.8 billion this year, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing unnamed officials. Despite falling short of a full bailout, the reported plan suggested that the government would not allow Vanke to suffer the same fate as China Evergrande, whose 2021 default and subsequent liquidation flagged the severity of the country’s housing downturn. 

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart


Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) edged up 0.42% for the week, after hitting record high of 3921.30 points on Monday but losing the momentum and drifting to sideway for the rest of the week. Seatrium was the top performer with a stunning 19.4% weekly gains, while SGX tumbled 9.3%. Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.


No comments: