U.S Stocks Continue March toward Record Highs as Trump Era Starts

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jan 24, major stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week higher, with the S&P 500 Index(SPX) notching a new record high on Thursday before dipping modestly lower on Friday. Large-cap indexes generally outperformed their smaller-cap peers. Headlines during the week were largely dominated by political developments in the wake of Monday’s inauguration of President Donald Trump. The developments seemed to be generally well received by investors and helped drive positive sentiment early in the week. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Tariffs: Trump did not impose a new round of tariffs on day one—as some had feared—and instead, called on federal agencies to conduct a review of U.S. trade policies to determine the impact of potential future tariffs, although he did pledge to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as February. 

2.    Trump also stated that he would “rather not have to use” tariffs on China, which helped fuel optimism for a potential trade deal between the world’s two largest economies. The developments seemed to be generally well received by investors and helped drive positive sentiment early in the week. 

3.    Stargate project: Trump also announced a new joint venture between Softbank, OpenAI, Oracle, and investment firm MGX called Stargate, which will reportedly provide up to USD 500 billion toward the construction of data centers and other artificial intelligence (AI)-related infrastructure in the U.S. over the next several years. Stocks with exposure to AI rallied following the announcement in anticipation of the potential jump in spending. 

4.    Consumer Sentiment fell in January for the first time in six months to 71.1, from 74.0 in December, largely due to rising inflation expectations and concerns about unemployment. 

5.    Important events coming week: FOMC meeting scheduled on 28-29 Jan next week. FedWatch tools shows 97.9% chance the Fed current rate of 4.25%-4.50% will be remained. No change. 

SPX sectors in play

All but one the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Energy(XLE) was the only sector lagged as Trump “ Drill, baby drill” plan to support oil and gas production in the U.S. Growth and tech stocks outperformed, Communication Services(XLC) and Health Care(XLV) were among top gainers. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All the three major indexes continue their rebound into 2^nd week, SPX index hit new record high intra-week, both SPX and Nasdaq Composition Index(COMP) closed at their recent top, while Dow just 1.4% below its recent high. All uptrend well intact. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks rose amid news that President Trump may be taking a softer stance on China tariffs. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 0.33%, while the blue chip CSI 300 was up 0.54%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 2.46%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Chinese banks left their one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively, for the third straight month. In October, Chinese lenders slashed the benchmark lending rates by a greater-than-expected 25 basis points to revive the economy. Analysts anticipate that the central bank will continue easing monetary policy this year, including potentially cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, as Beijing steps up efforts to combat the market uncertainty ushered in by a second Trump presidency. 

2.    China's youth unemployment rate eased for the fourth consecutive month since hitting its highest level of 2024 in August. The jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds excluding students declined to 15.7% in December from 16.1% in November, according to official data. Data released the prior week showed the nationwide jobless rate ticked up to 5.1% in December from 5% the prior month.

 Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) edged lower 0.17% this week, closing at 3804.26 level. The index appears been in sideway consolidation around 3800 level for the eight weeks. HKLand, Venture and YZJ Ship are among the top gainers. Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

U.S Stocks V-shape Rebounded on Cooling Inflation and Strong Bank Earnings

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.   S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jan 17, major stock indexes finished higher, rebounding from a sharp sell-off at the end of the prior week. The financials sector posted strong weekly gains, aided by some upside surprises to kick off earnings season. Shares of JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all rose after the banking giants reported surges in profits during the fourth quarter. U.S market will close on Monday for a public holiday. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Bond yield and inflation: In the week, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched a 14-month high at 4.8% before retreating following encouraging inflation data. December Core CPI unexpectedly edged lower to 3.2% from 3.3%, the first drop since July, providing relief to both stocks and bonds. Without the Fed going back to tightening mode, it’s believed yields may not move sustainably higher from here or exceed the prior cycle peak of almost 5% reached at the end of 2023. 

2.    Q4 Earnings under spotlight. The banks kicked off the earnings season last week, delivering strong results and pointing to a favorable macroeconomic environment. More broadly, S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 11% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, which would represent the strongest growth in three years. If S&P 500 earnings grow by 10% or more in 2025 as analysts expect, stocks can advance even after a modest decline in valuations (in this example the price-to-earnings ratio would need to fall below 19.5 from 21.5 currently to fully offset the gains from rising profits). 

3.    President Inauguration Day on Monday. Policy headlines will likely dominate the narrative after Inauguration Day, with markets likely attempting to calibrate expectations for growth and inflation based on what's announced.

 

SPX sectors in play

All the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Energy(XLE) and Financials(XLF) outperformed, while Health Care(XLV) lagged. As measured by Russell 1000 indexes, value stocks outperformed growth shares by the widest weekly margin since September, driven in part by outperformance in the energy sector amid higher oil prices and some profit-taking in large-cap technology stocks. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All the three major indexes rebounded sharply and recovered their previous week’s losses. SPX index closed highest in four weeks, SPX and Nasdaq rebounded above their major daily Moving Averages 20, 50 and 200dma. DJI also closed at four-week high. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks rose as the economy improved despite persistent deflationary pressures. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 2.31%, while the blue chip CSI 300 gained 2.14%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index was up 2.73%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s GDP expanded a better-than-expected 5.4% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, surpassing the 4.6% growth in the third quarter. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.6%, up from a revised 1.3% gain in the prior quarter, while GDP for the year reached 5%, hitting Beijing's annual growth target. 

2.    Other data also showed signs of recovery. Industrial production rose an above-forecast 6.2% in December from a year earlier, up from November’s 5.4% increase, partly due to higher auto, computer, and solar cell sales. Retail sales grew 3.7% in December from a year earlier, up from a 3% increase in November. Fixed asset investment was 3.2% in the January to December period from a year ago, down slightly from a 3.3% rise in the prior month. Property investment declines deepened to 10.6% year on year, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.1%. 

3.    Property slump stabilizes. New home prices in 70 cities were flat in December from November, improving from a 0.1% dip in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. December’s figure marked the fourth month of slower declines, Bloomberg reported. 

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) edged higher 0.24% this week, closing at 3810.78 level. Seatrium, Sembcorp and SingTel are among the top gainers, while HKland and YZJ lagged. Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

U.S Stocks Declined on Inflation Fears and Political Uncertainties

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.   S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.   China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jan 10, major stock indexes declined in the shortened week. Financial markets was largely negative after latest strong jobs data, which well above expectation. Government bond yields moved sharply higher, the higher yields weighed on stocks, particularly those with the highest valuations. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.34%, its biggest weekly drop since mid-November. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    U.S Economy. December nonfarm payrolls came in at 256k, well above expectations of 165k, while unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Wage gains continue to outpace inflation rate, a positive for consumers and sentiment. 

2.    Resilient labor market and hawkish Fed minutes indicate a slower pace for rate cuts. As a result, government bond yields moved higher last week, and stock market declined. In fact, according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now expect just one more Fed rate cut in 2025. 

3.    Inauguration Day of the President-elect Trump is less than two weeks away on Jan 20. While the incoming administration has highlighted several policy initiatives – including tariffs, immigration and energy reform, deregulation and tax cuts – it remains to be seen which of these are prioritized in the weeks ahead. The uncertainty around which policies are prioritized, and in what order, may continue to remain an overhang on markets. 

SPX sectors in play

Three out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Growth and high valuation stocks underperformed while defensive sectors such as Energy(XLE) and Health Care(XLV) stocks outperformed. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All the three major indexes declined in the week, SPX and Nasdaq dropped to their level in November. Dow went back down to its Oct level. Lower highs and lower lows seen on their daily charts which indicate a downtrend is formed on short term time frame though weekly chart still uptrend. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks fell as data showed that the economy remained stuck in deflation. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) lost 1.34%, while the blue chip CSI 300 gave up 1.13%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 3.52%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Inflation data released Thursday showed that China is still grappling with deflationary pressures. The consumer price index rose 0.1% in December from a year earlier, in line with estimates and down from 0.2% in November amid lower food and fuel prices. 

2.   Separately, the private Caixin/S&P Global survey of services activity rose to a better-than-expected 52.2 in December, the highest level since May. The reading matched official data released the prior week showing that nonmanufacturing activity rose to 52.2 in December—the highest level in nine months—after Beijing rolled out a broad stimulus package in late September. 

3.   In a statement following its quarterly policy meeting, The People’s Bank of China said that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy this year to support economic growth. The central bank pledged to increase financial support for the technology, emissions, pensions, and digital sectors. It also announced that it will reduce the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates when appropriate to boost consumption. 

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) inched lower 0.01% this week, closing at 3801.56 after hitting new record at 3886.98 intra-week. Three local banks were the top performers this week while the REITs were at the bottom of the performance table as shown below. Interest rates sensitive part of the markets was negatively affected by the sharply higher US bond yields.

Click below for STI stocks weekly performance table.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

U.S Stocks Close Out Another Strong Year

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Jan 3, major stock indexes were slightly lower during the holiday-shortened week, although broad gains on Friday helped indexes finish off their worst levels. Underperformance at the beginning of the week was partially attributable to some profit-taking heading into the end of the year as Tuesday was the fourth consecutive day of declines for the S&P 500 Index. However, despite the year-end slump for U.S. equities, 2024 marked the second straight annual gain of over 20% for the S&P 500 Index(SPX) and capped off the best two-year stretch in 25 years. The Nasdaq Composite(COMP) also finished the year up over 20% for the sixth time in the past eight years. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week and major indexes performance for the month of December and year 2024.

Major indexes monthly performance for December and for the whiole year 2024.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    U.S GDP. The U.S. economy appears to have grown at a 2.7% pace in 2024 (including Q4 estimates). This is down only marginally from 2023’s 2.9% rate and above the estimated long-term growth rate of around 2%. Consumer spending accounting 70% of GDP, remains supportive. For 2025, it’s believed the U.S. economy will continue to see positive but more moderate economic momentum. 

2.    Fed slows the pace of interest rate cuts to settling in the 3.5%-4% range, two or possibly three rate cuts is expected currently. 

3.    Jobless claims of 211k for the week ended Dec 28. This was a decline from the prior week’s reading of 220k and was the lowest level in eight months. 

SPX sectors in play

Four out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Energy(XLE) and Utilities( XLU) stocks outperformed while Consumer Discretionary(XLY) and Materials(XLB) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All the three major indexes closed slightly lower in the holiday-shortened week, although a rally on Friday helped indexes finished off their worst levels. All three major indexes weekly uptrend remain intact, the SPX closed just at its 50dma after Friday’s rebound. Nasdaq Composite(COMP) rebounded Friday from its 50dma, closed in between its 20 and 50 dma. Dow was the weakest among the three, sideways below its 20/50dma. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks retreated as weaker-than-expected manufacturing data hurt investor sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) fell 5.55%, while the blue chip CSI 300 lost 5.17%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gave up 1.64% during the holiday-shortened week. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s factory activity expanded for the third consecutive month. The official manufacturing PMI slowed to 50.1 in December from 50.3 in November, according to the statistics bureau. Though December’s reading surpassed the 50-mark threshold separating growth from contraction, it missed economists’ forecasts. The nonmanufacturing PMI, which measures construction and services activity, rose to a better-than-expected 52.2 in December from November’s 50 reading. 

2.    Separately, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI slowed to 50.5 in December from 51.5 in November. Though December marked the third straight month of expansion for the private survey, it too lagged economists’ forecasts. Taken together, the data pointed to a tentative recovery in the economy after Beijing unleashed a barrage of stimulus measures in September. However, “prominent downward pressures remain, with tepid domestic demand and mounting unfavorable external factors,” Caixin Insight Group noted in a statement accompanying the release. 

3.    December property sales stay unchanged from last year. The value of new home sales by the top 100 developers stayed flat in December from a year earlier compared with November’s 6.9% drop, according to the China Real Estate Information Corp. New home sales rose 24.2% month on month. For the full year, sales from the top 100 developers sank 28.1% versus a 16.5% drop in 2023. The data added to evidence of a possible turnaround in China’s housing market after Beijing unveiled a rescue package to revive the troubled sector in late September. 

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 0.8% this week, closing at 3801.83, recorded 2^nd weekly gains, the index remains in the bullish trend. Top index gainers including Seatrium and REITs, while the banks had mixed performance. Below is the weekly performance of the index stocks.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.