U.S. Tariffs Triggers Steepest Weekly Stock Decline in Five Years

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Apr 4, stocks fell sharply in response to the Trump’s announcement of a broad range of harsher-than-expected tariffs, which fueled concerns around the potential for slowing economic growth, resurgent inflation, and a possible recession. Small-cap stocks lagged as the Russell 2000 Index(RUT) lost about 10% and ended the week down over 25% from its all-time high, while the S&P 500 Index posted its worst weekly performance in over five years, was down 17.5% from its peak. The tariff announcement led to the largest one-day decline for some indexes since 2020 on Thursday, and stocks continued to slide through Friday. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week and monthly performance for March.

Major indexes monthly performance for March:

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    On April 2, President Donald Trump announced U.S. reciprocal tariff plans that were more aggressive than expected. A 10% minimum tariff will apply to all imports coming into the U.S. beginning April 5 while higher tariffs will be charged on countries that the U.S. has larger trade deficits with. The new tariffs are estimated to raise the effective tariff rate on U.S. imports from 2.3% in 2024 to between 20% - 25%, the highest in at least 100 years. 

2.    On April 4, China announced retaliatory tariffs, matching the U.S. reciprocal tariff rate of 34%. 

3.    The tariff announcement, and China's retaliation, drove risk-off sentiment in markets, with equities finishing the week sharply lower and U.S. Treasury yields declining to their lowest since October 2024. 

4.    From 2000 - 2024, the average U.S. tariff rate for all imports was a modest 1.7%. Based on the announced tariffs, the average U.S. tariff rate is expected to jump to between 20% – 25%. In 2024, the U.S. economy imported roughly $3.3 trillion of goods. Assuming an average tariff rate of 20%, this would equate to tariff revenue of roughly $660 billion, or roughly 2.3% of 2024 GDP. 

5.    Uncertainty likely to remain on coming weeks, as it remains uncertain as to how the impacted countries will respond. Some may take a similar approach to China, retaliating with levies on U.S. exports, while others may seek negotiations to lower tariff rates over time. It’s expected this process to play out in the weeks and months ahead, likely keeping market volatility elevated in the near term. 

6.    Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP) and Russell 2000 Index(RUT) officially entering bear markets this week. Declined 22.9% and 25.6% from their peak. While Dow Jones Industry Averages (DJI) and S&P 500 index(SPX) dropped 15% and 17.5% from their peak respectively, also in deep correction territory. 

7.    Job growth surges in March. The closely watched nonfarm payrolls report on Friday showed that the U.S. employers added 228k jobs in March, a sharp increase from February’s downwardly revised reading of 117k and well ahead of estimates for 130k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% However, the upbeat report did little to improve sentiment during the week as investors remained focused on the potential impacts of new tariff policies moving forward. 

8.    Expectations for the number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 jumped following the announcement, as investors wagered that negative growth effects from the new policies will force the Fed to ease monetary policy to support the labor market and spur economic growth. 

SPX sectors in play

All the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly losses from down 2.4% to 14.8%. Technology(XLK), Financials(XLF) and Energy(XLE) were hit hardest with more than 10% decline. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All major indexes in deep losses this week, the S&P 500 Index(SPX) posted its worst weekly performance in over five years. Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP) and Russell 2000 Index(RUT) officially entering bear markets this week. Declined 22.9% and 25.6% from their peak. While Dow Jones Industry Averages (DJI) and S&P 500 index(SPX) dropped 15% and 17.5% from their peak respectively, also in deep correction territory.

SPX long-term technical support 4740-4800 area, around 300points lower from current level. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets declined in a holiday-shortened week. For the week ended Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 0.28% while the blue chip CSI 300 fell 1.37%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 2.46%. (refer to the above weekly performance table). Stock markets on the mainland and Hong Kong were closed Friday for the Qingming Festival.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Following the Trump administration’s decision to hike tariffs on China by 34%, Beijing said that it would also impose a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10. It also announced several other measures taking aim at bilateral trade activity, effective immediately. The measures included: restricting exports of several kinds of rare earths, launching an antidumping probe into medical CT X-ray tubes from the U.S., halting poultry and sorghum imports from a handful of U.S. companies, adding 11 U.S. defense companies to a so-called unreliable entity list, and other actions. Several Chinese government ministries simultaneously announced the measures Friday evening. 

2.   China’s rapid response and the wide range of restrictions surprised some analysts, who had expected a more measured response. In the past, Beijing waited until U.S. duties were in place before retaliating. The latest U.S. tariffs will increase levies on nearly all Chinese products to at least 54%, Bloomberg reported. U.S. tariffs may reduce China’s GDP between 1% and 2%, a shortfall that the central government has the capacity to offset. Moreover, they expect that China will roll out more fiscal stimulus in stages this year as it assesses the economic toll of tariffs and whether they can be negotiated down.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) declined 3.69% to close at 3825.86 this week- its lowest in 10 weeks. The decline was led by the three local banks, PM Lawrence Wong warned U.S tariffs could trigger “full-blown global trade war”.

Top weekly gainers include defensive plays such as SingTel, ST engineering, Sembcorp Ind and REITs such as CapitaLand Ascendas REIT(CLAR) and Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust(CICT). Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Maybank Research stock recommendations after post-tariffs as below.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Stocks Fall on Tariffs, Inflation and Growth Concerns

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Mar 28, U.S. stocks declined, largely driven by weakness in the information technology and communication services sectors, while value stocks outperformed growth shares for the sixth consecutive week. Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a 25% levy on all non-U.S.-made automobiles—as well as concerns around a broader economic slowdown and weakening consumer sentiment weighed on stocks later in the week, sending major indexes into negative territory. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    25% auto tariffs announced by Trump. The tariffs take effect April 3 and target fully assembled vehicles, but will expand to include auto parts by May 3. The announcement weighed on shares of automakers and parts suppliers, as well as the stock markets of countries with large auto exposure such as Germany and South Korea. (The auto sector represents 7% of the German DAX vs. 2% of the S&P 500.) 

Given that about half of the 16 million cars sold last year in the U.S. were imported, the sector will experience a disruption. And there could potentially be knock-on effects, such as higher prices for used cars, repairs and insurance. Consistent with this line of thinking, rental car stocks jumped last week on the view that tariffs will bolster the value of their fleets as these companies eventually sell their used vehicles. 

2.    Reciprocal and other sector-specific tariffs. The auto tariffs were unveiled ahead of a broader announcement of reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, aiming to raise levies to match those of other countries. The tariffs would apply on a country-by-country basis and may include other non-tariff barriers such as value-added taxes (VATs) into the calculation. Separately, the administration has suggested that additional product-specific tariffs, including lumber and pharma, would be coming soon. 

3.    Inflation concern. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—rose 0.4% in February, up from January’s reading of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the core PCE rose 2.8%, remaining well above the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%. 

4.    Consumer expectations hit a 12-year low. The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index declined for the fourth consecutive month in March to 92.9, down from February’s reading of 100.1. The expectations portion of the index dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, reaching its lowest level in 12 years and remaining below 80, which could indicate a recession ahead, for the second consecutive month. 

SPX sectors in play

Consumer Staples(XLP) was the only one out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. The weakness led by Tech(XLK) and Communication Services(XLC), XLK declined 3.54% this week, and was down 11.24% YTD. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All three major indexes headed down again after one week pause. All below their respective 200dma- often indicate as last defence line for bulls. It’s weak technically, it’s remain to be seen whether they will continue drop lower than recent lows, the Nasdaq Composite(COMP) was just 40 points above its recent low. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets ended the week little change amid a light economic calendar and corporate earnings that generally met expectations. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 0.4% while the blue chip CSI 300 edged up 0.01%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 1.11%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Profits at industrial firms shrank 0.3% in the first two months of the year over the year-ago period, China’s statistics bureau reported. The contraction fell short of economists’ forecasts for an increase in industrial profits and underscored the urgency for China to bolster domestic demand amid the threat of higher U.S. tariffs. Last week, a former vice chair of China’s state economic planner said that China should seek to raise consumption to 70% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035 from about 55% currently. Consumption in China should increase between 5% and 8% as a share of GDP over the next five years, the official told participants at the Boao Forum, an annual global investor gathering in China, Bloomberg reported. 

2.    Boosting consumption is the Chinese government’s top economic priority for 2025 as Beijing seeks to counter rising geopolitical tensions and diminishing returns on investment at home. China recently set an annual economic growth target of about 5% for the third straight year, an ambitious goal that analysts believe will require significant stimulus.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 1.17% to close at 3972.43 for the week, record its 2^nd weekly gains in a row, the index appears very resilient when market sentiment is weak around the major global markets. STI hits new high on Thursday to 4005.18, also its first time in record to hit 4000 level.

 Top weekly gainers include ST engineering, The company benefited from increased defence budgets across several European countries, aligning with its strong position in the defence and engineering sectors. Banks including DBS and OCBC were also among top gainers. Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Fed Rates on Hold Amid Increased Uncertainty

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance  

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Mar 21, U.S. stocks were up slightly, recovering from correction territory, but remain down year to date. Most indexes snapping multi-week declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) performed best, advancing 1.2%, while the S&P 500(SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) posted their first weekly gains after four-week consecutive declines. Large-cap tech stocks generally underperformed, weighing on the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which was the worst-performing index during the week. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed interest rate unchanged. The FOMC concluded its March meeting this week, maintaining its target range for the federal funds rate for the second consecutive meeting at 4.25%–4.5%, as expected. Fed officials also indicated that they expect 50 basis points (0.5 percentage points) of rate cuts this year, unchanged from a previous projection in December. 

2.    GDP growth lowered. The outlook for economic growth for this year was lowered to 1.7%, down from 2.1% in December. The FOMC raised its inflation expectations, with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), at 2.7% for 2025, up from 2.5% previously.1 These projections show that the Fed expects tariffs to slow economic growth and trigger a one-time adjustment in prices that leads to a short-term rise in inflation. 

3.    International stocks have generated the strongest returns among the major asset classes so far this year, led by developed-market large-cap stocks. Europe is benefiting from a multiyear plan to raise defence and infrastructure spending that could help spur growth, which has been stagnant in recent years. The potential for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire has also improved sentiment. Chinese stocks have risen on expectations for additional fiscal and monetary stimulus as the government seeks to boost consumption and head off deflation concerns. Refer to China/HK section below for more information. 

SPX sectors in play

Eight out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Energy(XLE) and Financials(XLF) outperformed, while Consumer Staples(XLP) lagged. It’s expected the health care( XLV) and financials(XLF) sectors could continue to perform well in the year ahead, particularly if the administration focuses on deregulation and tax policy in the coming months. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP indexes have recorded their first weekly gains after four weeks losing streak. The S&P 50(SPX) is now down 3.64% YTD. While the technology-heavy Nasdaq(COMP) is still in correction territory( down about 11.5% from its recent peak). Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets fell as investors turned cautious after two weeks of gains. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) shed 1.60% while the blue chip CSI 300 fell 2.29%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 1.13%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China released a batch of better-than-expected indicators showing that the economy started the year on solid footing. Retail sales rose 4.0% in the January-February period from a year earlier, marking the quickest growth rate since November. Industrial output grew 5.9% year on year in the first two months of the year, slowing from December’s 6.2% expansion but still surpassing forecasts. Fixed asset investment—which includes property and infrastructure investment—increased 4.1% in the January-February period year on year, above expectations and December’s 3.2% pace. China’s statistics bureau combines data for January and February to smooth out distortions caused by the irregular timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. 

2.    Property development investment sank 9.8% in the first two months of 2025 year on year after falling 10.6% in December, according to the statistics bureau, indicating that China’s yearslong property slump has yet to bottom. The urban unemployment rate climbed to 5.4%, the highest level in two years, Reuters reported. 

3.    Several brokerages upgraded their gross domestic product forecasts for China following the data release, reflecting confidence that Beijing can meet its annual growth goals despite the risk of an escalating U.S. trade war. At the National People’s Congress meeting earlier in March, China pledged stronger fiscal and monetary support for the economy and stated that boosting consumption was the government’s top priority for 2025. It also set an economic growth target of about 5% for the third straight year.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 2.36% to close at 3926.45 for the week, fully recovered from its previous week’s spike down. The three local banks, YZJ Ship, Sembcorp Ind and ST Engineer. The index is about 20 points to its record level, uptrend is well intact.

This week’s top index gainer was YZJ Ship with 7.86% up. Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Stocks Continue Volatile Due to Tariff and Recession Worries

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Mar 14, U.S. stock indexes posted losses, with the S&P 500 Index(SPX), Nasdaq Composite(COMP), and Russell 2000 Index(RUT) all notching a fourth consecutive week of negative returns, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) slid 3.07%, putting all four indexes into negative territory for the year. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policy seemed to drive much of the negative sentiment as new tariff announcements from the Trump administration continued throughout the week. Growth concerns and increasing recession fears—which were amplified by comments from Donald Trump regarding a “period of transition” for the U.S. economy—also weighed on sentiment during the week.

The SPX briefly dipping into correction territory, down 10.5% from its recent highs. The COMP has dropped about 14% from peak-to-trough this year. This was the first 10%+ drawdown in the SPX since October 2023, nearly 1.5 years ago. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Despite the sharp pullback in U.S. stock markets, there have been areas of financial markets that have performed better – and are even up for the year: 1) Within U.S. equities, value and cyclical sectors have outperformed tech and AI stocks. 2) Bonds have outperformed stocks broadly this year thus far as investors looked for safety. 3)And many international stock markets, including Europe and China, have been up 8%-10%. 

2.    Inflation eases in February. Latest CPI data indicated that consumer prices rose 0.2% MoM in February, while core CPI saw its lowest YoY increase since Apr 2021, rising 3.1% over the prior 12 months. February’s readings for both monthly and annual inflation slowed from January, and both were slightly below consensus expectations. 

3.    FOMC next week. Thursday’s producer price index (PPI) data painted a similar picture for February, with headline prices unchanged from January and core prices declining for the first time since July compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase for both readings. Fed policymakers are widely expected to hold interest rates steady following their upcoming meeting on March 18–19. 

4.    Weak consumer confidence. The University of Michigan reported its Index of Consumer Sentiment for March on Friday morning, which declined 11% month over month to 57.9. The index has now declined three months in a row and is down 22% from December 2024. 

SPX sectors in play

Only two out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Defensive and cyclical sectors such as Utilities(XLU) and Energy(XLE) outperform technology(XLK) and growth sectors such as Consumer Discretionary(XLY) thus far. It’s expected the health care( XLV) and financials(XLF) sectors could continue to perform well in the year ahead, particularly if the administration focuses on deregulation and tax policy in the coming months. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

SPX sectors year-to-date return

Indexes technical levels

Both SPX and COMP indexes have recorded four weeks losing streak in a row. The S&P 50(SPX) is now down 4.13% for the year and SPX briefly down to correction territory (-10.5% from recent high) before it bounced on Friday, resulted -8.5% from recent high. While the technology-heavy Nasdaq(COMP) is down about 14% this week, into correction territory. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stock markets rose on stimulus hopes after Beijing said it would hold a press conference on Monday with policymakers focusing on boosting consumption. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) gained 1.39% while the blue chip CSI 300 added 1.59%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index was down 1.12%. (refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Officials from China’s finance ministry, commerce ministry, central bank, and financial markets watchdog are expected to appear at Monday’s briefing, which “will introduce the situation of boosting consumption,” according to the announcement from the State Council. News of the conference sparked a rally in Chinese shares on Friday, pushing the CSI 300 Index to its highest level since mid-December. 

2.    Increasing consumption to drive economic growth has become more important for China’s policymakers since the onset of the U.S.-sparked trade war. At the just-concluded National People’s Congress meeting, China set an ambitious economic growth target of about 5% for the third straight year and stated that boosting consumption is the government’s top priority for 2025. 

3.    Weak domestic consumption was underscored in China’s latest inflation report. The consumer price index fell a greater-than-expected 0.7% in February from a year ago, according to the statistics bureau, marking the first contraction since January 2024. The core CPI—which excludes food and energy costs—declined 0.1% year on year, its first decrease since 2021 and only the second time the gauge contracted in more than 15 years, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the producer price index, which tracks wholesale prices, fell 2.2% in February, its 29th straight monthly contraction. 

4.    Stamping out deflation is a matter of growing urgency for Beijing, which rolled out a slew of monetary and fiscal stimulus measures last September to spur demand. But a yearslong housing slump has prompted people to save rather than spend, frustrating officials’ attempts to bolster consumption.

Refer to below .HSI stocks top 40 performance of the week.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) declined 2.0% to close at 3836.02 for the week -its five weeks low. The three local banks led the decline. Immediate technical support at 3805 and upside resistance at 3851 level.

This week’s top index gainer was JMH with 9.01% up, REITs were also among the top gainers as chances of U.S cutting more rates growing, which will benefit REITs. Sembcorp Ind was the top weekly loser, down 5.4%.

Refer to below STI stocks weekly performance table.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.