U.S. Equities End Year Firm as Inflation Cools; Gold and Silver Rally

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Main Content:

1.    Major indices’ weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indices weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 26, major U.S. indices pushed to fresh record highs amid light trading volumes and generally supportive macro data. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) both closed at new highs, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) also finished higher, supported by continued optimism around AI. Gold and silver prices surged, extending their year-to-date rally as investors sought traditional safe-haven and inflation-hedge assets amid mixed economic signals.

As 2025 draws to a close, U.S. equity markets have delivered strong double-digit gains, supported by resilient economic growth, easing inflation pressures, and sustained earnings momentum—particularly within technology-related sectors. Refer to the table below for the major indices' weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    U.S. growth remains resilient. U.S. GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3% in 3Q, the fastest pace in two years and well above expectations, led by robust consumer spending and reinforcing confidence in late-cycle economic resilience. 

2.    Inflation continues to cool. November CPI surprised to the downside, with headline inflation easing to 2.7% and core CPI slowing to 2.6%, the lowest since early 2021. 

3.    Labor market softens gradually. Nonfarm payrolls rose 64k, rebounding from October’s government-related decline, while unemployment edged up to 4.6%, consistent with a cooling—but still orderly—labor market adjustment. 

4.    Business momentum moderates. The Flash U.S. Composite PMI eased to 53.0, a six-month low, signaling slower expansion across manufacturing and services as firms adopt a more cautious hiring stance. 

5.    Fed policy bias tilts toward measured easing. Softer wage growth and hiring trends reinforce expectations for gradual policy easing into 2026, with markets pricing limited rather than aggressive rate cuts despite inflation remaining above target. 

6.    Precious metals extend their uptrend. Gold and silver advanced, supported by declining real yields, expectations of future Fed easing, and continued diversification demand amid late-cycle uncertainty.

 

SPX sectors in play

10 out of the 11 SPX sectors ended the week higher, with technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) outperformed, while Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged. Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.

Indices technical levels

Both SPX and DJI indices closed at new record, while Nasdaq(COMP) index also finished higher. Click below three indices for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets rose for the week. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 1.88% and the blue-chip CSI 300 advanced 1.95%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index recorded a modest gain of 0.50% as it closed for the week starting on Thursday due to holidays.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    No official economic indicators were released during the week. The latest batch of official data released earlier in December showed that November retail sales grew at the slowest year-over-year pace since the pandemic, while fixed asset investment was on track for the first annual contraction since 1998. 

2.    Despite numerous indicators signaling lackluster growth in the economy, most analysts expect China will meet its official growth target of about 5% this year. Earlier in December, the World Bank estimated that China’s economy grew 4.9% this year and forecast growth of 4.4% in 2026 as property weakness, trade policy uncertainty, and other headwinds persist. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) hit a new record, adding 1.45% this week to close at 4636.15. The two index heavyweight DBS and OCBC banks hit new record this week. DBS closed at 56.23, OCBC at 19.81, while UOB also finished higher, closing at 35.13. Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

U.S. Equities Consolidate as Inflation Cools; BoJ Hikes Rates

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 19, major U.S. indexes finished the last full trading week of the year mixed, as investors navigated noisy but generally encouraging macro data and continued rotation beneath the surface. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) outperformed, gaining 0.48%, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) ended the week largely unchanged. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined 0.67%, and the Russell 2000(RUT) underperformed, falling 0.86%.

U.S. equities started the week on a weaker note amid concerns over technology valuations, AI-related capital spending, and mixed economic data, but sentiment improved toward week’s end following a cooler-than-expected inflation report and strong earnings from Micron Technology. As 2025 draws to a close, markets have delivered solid double-digit year-to-date gains, supported by easing inflation pressures, resilient earnings, and expectations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Refer to the table below for the major indexes' weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Inflation surprised to the downside

November CPI cooled more than expected, with headline inflation easing to 2.7% and core CPI slowing to 2.6%, the lowest level since early 2021. 

2.    Labor market remains soft but stable

Nonfarm payrolls rose 64k in November, rebounding from October’s government-driven decline. Hiring remained concentrated in healthcare and construction, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, reflecting a gradually cooling labor market rather than outright deterioration. 

3.    Business activity shows signs of slowing momentum

The Flash U.S. Composite PMI eased to 53.0, a six-month low, indicating slower growth across both manufacturing and services. Businesses appeared more cautious on hiring, citing a more challenging operating environment. 

4.    Fed bias remains toward gradual easing

Cooling wage growth and softer hiring trends reinforce expectations that the Fed maintains a measured easing bias in 2026, despite inflation remaining above its 2% target. Markets continue to price in limited rate cuts rather than aggressive policy easing. 

5.    Market leadership continues to broaden

Elevated mega-cap tech valuations and improving earnings momentum elsewhere have supported rotation into mid-caps, cyclicals, and non-tech sectors, while large-cap technology names took a breather following recent earnings disappointments. 

6.    Bank of Japan tightens policy further

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years, highlighting ongoing normalization in Japanese monetary policy and underscoring diverging global central bank paths as major economies move through different stages of the policy cycle.Fed delivers third straight rate cut, signals flexibility

SPX sectors in play

Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the week higher, with growth and technology-related stocks outperforming. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) led gains, while Energy (XLE) and Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged.

Looking into 2026, cyclical sectors, small- and mid-cap companies, value-style investments, and international equities trade near their historical average valuations and stand to benefit from improving liquidity conditions and better credit availability. Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below. 

Indexes technical levels

SPX closed within its three-week consolidation range after a volatile week- it dipped below its 20dma on Wed but fully recovered on Friday after better-than-expected CPI data. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets ended the week on a mixed note, weighed by a trio of indicators underscoring lacklustre growth in the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) edged up 0.03% and the blue-chip CSI 300 lost 0.28%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 1.10%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Retail sales rose 1.3% in November from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the pandemic, Bloomberg reported, citing data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Fixed asset investment fell 2.6% in the first 11 months of the year, lagging economists’ estimates and putting the measure on track for its first annual contraction in data going back to 1998. Industrial output also trailed forecasts and grew 4.8% year on year, underscoring the importance of China’s export sector in driving the economy as domestic demand languishes. 

2.    The latest retail sales data showed that consumption remains a weak spot in China’s economy despite the government’s efforts to stimulate demand. Earlier in December, China’s leaders signaled that they would refrain from ramping up stimulus next year even as they pledged to support growth. China will “flexibly and efficiently” use interest rate and reserve requirement cuts to ensure liquidity and maintain a “necessary” level of budget deficit and spending in 2026, according to a readout following the Central Economic Work Conference, an annual meeting of government officials that lays out the next year’s economic agenda. Analysts interpreted the readout as a sign that Beijing would stick with its current manufacturing-led growth strategy as it takes steps to boost consumption. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) fell 0.36% this week to close at 4569.78, retreat by  profit-taking after hitting intra-week new record. Rate sensitive stocks such as developers, REITs led the gains. Trading activity was typically subdued amid the school holidays and year-end festive period. Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Fed Cut Rate Stocks Rotate Beyond Big Tech

Join SgTraderClub Facebook group HERE for daily stocks and market updates, and more.

Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 12, major U.S. equities finished mixed but largely resilient, as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive 25bp rate cut alongside messaging that was perceived as less hawkish than feared. Market leadership broadened, with small- and mid-cap stocks outperforming, while mega-cap technology paused amid valuation concerns.

The Russell 2000(RUT) led gains, rising 1.19%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), which added 1.05%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) declined 1.62%, weighed down by weakness in large-cap tech after disappointing earnings updates from select AI-related names. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the week lower after a sharp pullback on Friday erased earlier gains. Refer to the table below for the major indexes' weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed delivers third straight rate cut, signals flexibility. The Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds target range by 25bps to 3.50%–3.75%, as expected. While the statement language hinted at a potential pause in January, Chair Powell emphasized heightened sensitivity to labor market risks and reiterated confidence that inflation will continue to cool. Notably, the Fed also announced plans to purchase short-term Treasury bills to support money market liquidity. 

2.    Policy outlook supportive, not overtly dovish. Despite dissent among three policymakers, the majority supported the cut due to slowing hiring trends. Updated projections show most FOMC members still expect lower rates ahead, with scope for one to two cuts that could bring rates toward the 3.0%–3.5% neutral range. 

3.    Labor market signals soften. Initial jobless claims jumped to 236k, the highest since September, raising concerns over near-term labor market momentum. While job openings edged higher to a five-month high, layoffs increased and the quits rate fell to its lowest level since 2020—suggesting workers are becoming more cautious. 

4.    Rates market reflects late-cycle easing. Treasury yields diverged, with short-term yields falling after the Fed decision while longer-dated yields edged higher. The 10-year Treasury yield remains rangebound near 4.0%–4.5%, reflecting lingering inflation concerns and fiscal uncertainty. Investment-grade credit outperformed, while high-yield bonds saw pockets of volatility. 

5.    Rotation away from mega-cap tech. Technology stocks lagged amid renewed concerns over AI-related capital spending and stretched valuations, following earnings disappointments from Oracle and Broadcom. This drove a rotation toward small- and mid-cap equities, which tend to benefit more directly from falling interest rates and easing financial conditions. 

SPX sectors in play

Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors gained for the week, with interest-rate-sensitive and value-oriented segments such as Financials(XLB) and Materials(XLB) outperformed, while Technology-related( XLK) stocks lagged, reflecting a pause after strong year-to-date gains. The shift highlights improving breadth beneath the surface of the rally and supports the case for diversification as monetary policy becomes less restrictive. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

Despite near-term volatility, the broader uptrend across U.S. equities remains intact. The Dow(DJI) and small-cap indexes pushed toward new highs, while the S&P 500(SPX) and Nasdaq(COMP) experienced healthy consolidation after extended runs. With policy easing nearing its later stages, markets appear to be transitioning from a liquidity-driven rally to a more earnings- and breadth-driven phase. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets retreated as investors took profits after recent months’ gains. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) fell 0.34% and the blue-chip CSI 300 shed 0.08%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index slid 0.42%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    November inflation data underscored the weight of deflationary pressures on China’s economy. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 0.7% in November year on year, staying above zero for the second straight month. But the producer price index fell 2.2%, marking the 38th straight month of declines. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged at 1.2%, Bloomberg reported, citing official data. 

2.    Unlike the U.S. and Europe, China has been grappling with deflation since the pandemic ended amid a prolonged housing slump that has in turn discouraged consumption. In response, the government launched a so-called anti-involution campaign aimed at curbing price wars and excessive output in industries ranging from food delivery to car manufacturing. But the latest inflation report suggested that Beijing’s efforts in beating deflation have had limited progress. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) gained 1.22% this week to close at 4,586.45, breaking out decisively to a new record high after four weeks of consolidation. Market sentiment remained constructive, supported by expectations of a more accommodative global rate environment following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s third consecutive rate cut. Trading activity was typically subdued amid the school holidays and year-end festive period.

As 2025 draws to a close, the STI has delivered a strong year-to-date gain of 21.09%, reflecting improved risk appetite, firmer liquidity conditions, and renewed interest in Singapore equities. Financials and yield-sensitive sectors remained relatively resilient, benefiting from expectations that global interest rates are approaching a more neutral level, while gains across the broader market were selective.Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.

Stocks Climb Higher Expecting Rate Cuts

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 6, major U.S. equities finished higher, extending the previous week’s momentum amid growing expectations of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led the advance with a 0.91% weekly gain, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) also edged higher, adding 0.31%.

As we move into the final weeks of 2025, markets have delivered double-digit gains across all major U.S. indexes. Year-to-date, the SPX is up roughly 17%, while the COMP has climbed about 22%. Refer to the table below for the major indexes' weekly performance.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed likely to cut interest rates at its December meeting, which will be held on December 9-10. It’s expected it aiming to bring rates to a neutral level (3.0%–3.5%) amid contained inflation and a softer near-term economic outlook. 

2.    The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2% in November, down from 48.7% in October, signaling a continued slowdown in manufacturing activity. In contrast, the services sector showed modest improvement, with the Services PMI edging up 0.2 percentage points to 52.6%—its highest level in nine months. 

3.    Private payrolls saw their largest decline since 2023, with ADP reporting a 32k drop in November, reversing October’s revised 47k gain. ADP noted the slowdown was broad-based, led by weakness among small businesses. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 191k, the lowest since September 2022. 

4.    September inflation was little changed, with the PCE index rising 0.3% month-over-month, in line with August, and core PCE up 0.2%, also matching the prior month. Both measures were 2.8% higher year-over-year. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s preliminary December Consumer Sentiment Index rose 2.3 points to 53.3, supported by improved personal finance expectations. One-year ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.1%, the lowest since January 2025. 

5.    A Santa Claus rally has occurred 73% of the time since 1980, with the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of January delivering an average S&P 500 gain of 1.1%. More broadly, the market has enjoyed a strong run since April, with the S&P 500(SPX) up about 38% and only one 5% pullback in November. 

SPX sectors in play

Six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors gained for the week, with growth stocks leading the way. Technology related stocks drove the rally, supported by Technology(XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC), while Utilities (XLU) lagged, reflecting a risk-on market sentiment. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

The S&P 500 (SPX) notched its second consecutive weekly gain, closing at a new high. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also logged their second straight weekly advances, with uptrends remaining firmly intact across all three major indexes. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

Mainland China stock markets advanced as enthusiasm for domestic technology and artificial intelligence trades eclipsed data pointing to an economic slowdown. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 0.37% and the blue-chip CSI 300 rose 1.28%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index gained 0.87%.

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth straight month, though it inched up to 49.2 in November, while services activity softened as earlier holiday-driven support faded. 

2.    The latest PMI data reinforced signs of slowing momentum in China’s Q4 recovery. The prolonged property downturn—stemming from the 2020 “three red lines” policy tightening—remains a central risk, weighing on consumption and adding deflationary pressure. Even so, most analysts still expect China to achieve its ~5% annual growth target without additional policy stimulus this year. 

3.   High-tech production remained resilient, but persistent weakness tied to the property sector, alongside soft demand and continued U.S. trade pressures, underscores an uneven recovery across China’s economy. 

Refer to below Hang Seng Index stocks’ weekly performance table.

Click below for SSE and .HSI weekly chart.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

 

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) edged up 0.16% this week to close at 4,531.36, continuing to consolidate within its four-week trading range near record levels. As 2025 draws to a close, the STI has delivered a strong ~20% year-to-date gain. As highlighted last week, JPMorgan recently raised its 12-month STI target to 6,000 from 5,000, citing improving market liquidity, a pickup in IPO activity, and ongoing wealth management growth. Refer to below STI index stocks’ weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports. Please comment to claim copyright ownership of any material, and I will remove it if necessary.