Stocks Closed Higher on Holiday-Shortened Week

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.   U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.   S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.   China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.   Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 27, major stock indexes produced moderate gains in the final full week of the year. The relatively quiet week started with a continuation of the previous Friday’s move in a rally largely driven by large-cap growth stocks, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite leading the way and the Russell 1000 Growth Index outpacing its value counterpart through Tuesday. However, this trend reversed following Wednesday’s market closure for Christmas as most indexes declined in the second half of the week, giving back some of their earlier gains. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    U.S consumer confidence as reported on Monday fell in December to 104.7 from 112.8 in November. 

2.    Labor Department reported on Thursday that applications for unemployment benefits declined slightly to 219k for the week ended December 21, the lowest reading since mid-November. 

3.    Coming week important data to watch: China manufacturing PMI on Tuesday 31 December and US manufacturing PMI on Friday Jan 3. 

 

SPX sectors in play

Six out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. HealthCare(XLV) and Technology(XLK) stocks outperformed and Consumer Staples(XLP) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All the three major indexes closed higher this week. Nasdaq Composite(COMP) rebounded after previous week’s decline. SPX closed 1^st weekly gain after two-week decline. Dow also rebounded 1^st week after three-week down. All three indexes weekly charts are still in uptrend while Dow below its 50dma, SPX closed between its 50 and 20dma and Nasdaq is the strongest among the three, closed just above its 20dma. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks rose amid hopes that the government will announce further stimulus measures to support growth. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) added 0.95%, while the blue chip CSI 300 gained 1.36%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index added 1.87% during the holiday-shortened week. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Chinese officials plan to sell a record RMB 3 trillion in special Treasury bonds next year as Beijing ramps up efforts to bolster the economy, Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources. The reported bond issue is a sharp increase from the RMB 1 trillion sovereign debt issuance in 2024, and proceeds will be used for boosting consumption via subsidy programs, equipment upgrades, and investment in innovation-driven sectors as China braces for a potential second trade war with the U.S. 

2.    The People’s Bank of China injected RMB 300 billion into the banking system via its medium-term lending facility and left the lending rate unchanged at 2%, as expected. With RMB 1.45 trillion in loans due to expire in December, the operation resulted in a net withdrawal of RMB 1.15 trillion from the banking system, the largest liquidity drain via the one-year lending facility since 2014, Bloomberg reported. 

3.    Manufacturing profits extend declines. Profits at industrial firms fell 7.3% in November from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. November’s decrease marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline, albeit a narrower one than October’s year-on-year 10% drop. While the slower pace of decline followed Beijing’s extensive stimulus measures, the results showed that the policies have yet to arrest the decline in corporate earnings, which are under pressure from deflation in China over the past year.

 Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) added 1.39% this week, closing at 3771.63, recovered about half of its previous week’s loss. The index’s uptrend still well intact- currently hovering its 20dma. Seatrium was the top gainer of the week with 7.3% up. Only one stock – SingTel closed lower this week. Below is the weekly performance of the index stocks for reference.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

U.S. Stocks Slide Amid Hawkish Fed Stance

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 20, major stock indexes declined during the week, although a rally on Friday helped major indexes recover some of their lost ground. Losses were broad-based, though smaller-cap indexes generally fared worst. The event dominating sentiment during the week appeared to be the Fed’s rate announcement following its highly anticipated policy meeting that concluded Wednesday. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Fed rate cut. At final FOMC meeting of 2024, the Fed did cut rates by 0.25%, bringing the fed funds rate to 4.25% - 4.5%. However, it caught markets off guard with a hawkish tilt to its updated economic projections and indicated only two rate cuts in 2025, below the September estimate of four rate cuts. Markets initially reacted negatively, with bond yields moving higher and stocks moving sharply lower. The Fed pointed to two reasons for its more cautious approach to rate cuts – the outlook for inflation and the unknowns around tariff policy in the year ahead. 

2.    A strong U.S. economy. The Q3 annualized GDP figures came in at 3.1%, above forecasts of 2.8%, driven by healthy consumption of 3.7%. The Fed GDP-Now forecast also calls for Q4 U.S. GDP to come in around 3.2% annualized. This data confirms that U.S. economic growth is on pace to end the year above trend, which is typically in the 1.5% - 2.0% range.

3.    Friday morning’s release of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation report. The core PCE index—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—rose by 2.8% year-over-year in November, in line with October’s reading and slightly lower than consensus expectations. The better-than-feared report seemed to help push stocks higher on Friday to finish the week above their worst levels. 

SPX sectors in play

All the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly losses. Technology(XLK) stocks outperformed relatively better while Energy(XLE) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All the three major indexes closed lower this week. Nasdaq Composite(COMP) recorded 1^st weekly loss after four-weekly up streak, SPX closed 2^nd weekly down and Dow closed with 3^rd weekly loss. All three indexes weekly charts are still in uptrend while Dow closed below its 50dma, SPX closed just above its 50dma and Nasdaq still well above its 50dma. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks retreated as disappointing data raised concerns about the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) fell 0.7%, while the blue chip CSI 300 lost 0.14%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index declined 1.25%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.   China November activity data pointed to the uneven nature of China’s recovery amid a looming trade war with the U.S. Retail sales expanded a below-consensus 3% from a year ago, down from October’s 4.8% rise and highlighting Chinese consumers’ unwillingness to spend. Fixed asset investment grew 3.3% in the January to November period, lagging forecasts, and less than the 3.4% increase in the calendar year to October. Property investment in the period fell 10.4%. Industrial production was a bright spot, rising a better-than-expected 5.4% from a year earlier amid demand for robots, passenger cars, and solar panels. 

2.    China's youth unemployment rate eased for the third consecutive month after hitting its highest level this year in August. The jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds, excluding students, was 16.1% in November, down from 17.1% in October, according to official data. Urban unemployment remained steady at 5%, as expected. 

3.    Property downturn stabilizes. New home prices in 70 cities fell 0.1% in November, slowing from October’s 0.5% drop, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. While November’s dip marked the 17th monthly decline, it was the slowest pace since June last year, according to Reuters. China’s property market has showed signs of stabilizing after Beijing unveiled a sweeping package in late September aimed at reviving the crisis-hit sector. Analysts anticipate that the government will ramp up efforts to stimulate growth as China’s economy faces higher tariffs and other challenges under the incoming Trump administration.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) fell 2.37% this week, closing at 3,719.93—its lowest level in six weeks. The losses were broad-based, with 29 of the 30 constituent stocks declining, while one closed flat. This decline may indicate profit-taking as investors wrap up for the year. Despite this, the STI has delivered a year-to-date (YTD) price return of 14.8% and maintains an uptrend on its weekly chart. Below is the weekly performance of the index stocks for reference.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

U.S Stocks Mixed, Markets Prepare for Another Fed Cut

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 13, major stock indexes ended the week lower, although the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite(COMP) advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. Large-cap stocks held up better than their smaller-cap peers as the Russell 2000 Index(RUT) recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index(SPX), thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12.08%) and Google parent Alphabet (8.44%), the latter of which recorded its largest two-day gain since 2015 between Tuesday and Wednesday. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Inflation data greenlights December Fed cut, signals caution for 2025. November CPI released on Wednesday was the last key datapoint before coming week’s Fed meeting. The results came right in line with expectations. Core consumer inflation rise by 0.3%, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 3.3% for the 3^rd straight month. This pace of price increases is half of the 6.6% peak in 2022, but still higher than the Fed would like. Similarly, producer price inflation accelerated a tick in November, to 0.4% from 0.3%. 

2.    According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures markets on Friday were pricing in a 97.1% chance of the Fed cutting rates at its upcoming meeting, up from 86.0% at the end of the prior week. The two-day meeting begins December 17, with an announcement on the rate decision made the following day. 

3.    A stronger dollar has been a headwind for int’l stock returns. As other central banks such as the Bank of Canda(BoC) and European Central Bank(ECB) cut rates, the strengthening USD is good for U.S stocks performance and  int’l stocks tend to underperform. 

SPX sectors in play

Two out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Technology stocks outperformed. Consumer discretionary(XLY) and communication services(XLC) were the only two gainers. While Utilities(XLU) and materials(XLB) stocks lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

The major indexes closed with diverged performance. Nasdaq Composite(COMP) recorded 4^th weekly gain in a row, SPX closed 1^st weekly down after three week gains, and Dow closed with 2^nd weekly loss. All three indexes weekly charts are still in uptrend. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks lost ground as recent policy announcements underwhelmed investors. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) gave up 0.36%, while the blue chip CSI 300 fell 1.01%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index added 0.53%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China pledged to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and increase the budget deficit in 2025 at the annual Central Economic Work Conference, a high-level meeting in which top officials plan the economic agenda for the next year. Officials also stated that the central government will continue issuing ultra-long special Treasury bonds to fund major projects. However, the readout following the two-day conference did not provide any details, which dampened investor sentiment. 

2.    Inflation data released earlier in the week showed that China’s economy remained stuck in deflation. The consumer price index rose a below-consensus 0.2% in November from a year earlier, down from 0.3% in October. Core inflation edged up to 0.3%, from October’s 0.2% rise. The producer price index fell 2.5% year on year, easing from the prior month’s 2.9% drop and marking the 26th straight monthly decline despite Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic demand in recent months. 

3.    On the trade front, exports rose a weaker-than-expected 6.7% in November from a year earlier, slowing from 12.7% in October, and expanded for the eighth straight month. Shipments to the U.S. reached their highest level since September 2022, while exports to Southeast Asia also surged, Bloomberg reported. Imports fell 3.9%, deepening from the prior month's 2.3% drop. The overall trade surplus widened to USD 97.4 billion from USD 95.72 billion in October. The rise in exports was partly attributed to Chinese firms frontloading goods to the U.S. to avoid potentially higher tariffs when President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

STI index (STI) edged higher 0.37% this week, closed at 3810.35 level. YZJ Ship again was top weekly gainer for 2^nd consecutive week. The three local banks were also among top gainers. Refer to below index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

U.S Major Indexes Diverge Amid Rally in Tech Stocks

Note: The WeeklWrap weekly commentary was paused last week due to an overseas holiday trip. We’re pleased to announce that it has resumed this week. Thank you for your understanding and continued support!

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Main Content:

1.    Major indexes weekly performance 

2.    U.S stocks weekly wrap 

3.    S&P 500 sector index weekly/month performance 

4.    China/Hong Kong stocks weekly wrap 

5.    Singapore stocks weekly wrap 

6.    Major indexes weekly chart and technical support & resistance levels

U.S.

For the week of Dec 6, major stock indexes ended mixed saw the S&P 500(SPX) and Nasdaq(COMP) indexes climbed to new record highs after the jobs raised rate cut hopes. The SPX and Nasdaq (COMP) indexes are up three straight weeks, while the Dow(DJI) index fell after two-weeks up. As we head into year-end and the holiday season, investors have many reasons to cheer. The stock market has been making record highs, and bond markets still offer favorable yields. Perhaps most importantly - and underpinning the solid financial markets - is that the U.S. economy continues to grow at or above trend, with no signs of recession on the horizon. Refer to below major indexes performance table for the week.

Key highlights for the week and next:

1.    Nonfarm payrolls reported on Friday shows the U.S. labor market rebounded in November. New jobs added were 227k, above expectations for 220k, and last month's weaker data was revised somewhat higher. More broadly, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% but remains well below long-term averages of around a 5.7% unemployment rate in the U.S. The Labor Department also reported the number of job openings in October increased to 7.74 million, up from September’s revised 7.37 million reading. 

2.    The fundamental backdrop for financial markets remains intact, and the U.S. economy appears poised to achieve the elusive "soft landing" (modest slowdown but still growing at or above trend). As we look toward 2025, we would expect consumers to be supported further by lower interest rates and wage growth that exceeds inflation rates. 

3.    The U.S. unemployment rate ticked higher last month, from 4.1% to 4.2%, but remains comfortably below long-term average unemployment rates of around 5.7%. In our view, the labor market continues to normalize after a period of outsized strength after the pandemic in 2020. we anticipate that the unemployment rate remains contained, below 4.5% 

4.    Potential risks ahead: In addition to government policy uncertainty, markets may also face some uncertainty around Federal Reserve rate-cutting policy. If growth remains robust and any risk of inflation re-emerges, the rate-cutting cycle may be shallower than already expected. Nonetheless, we believe that the fed funds rate is heading lower over the next 12 months, even if just incrementally so, which should be supportive to the consumer and corporations. 

5.    Fed meeting remains in focus, upcoming Fed meeting on 17-18 December. The week’s expectations priced into futures markets for a 25-basis-point (0.25 percentage point) rate cut in December. 

SPX sectors in play

Three out of the 11 SPX sectors recorded weekly gain. Consumer discretionary(XLY), communication services(XLC), and information technology(XLK) shares all gained over 3% for the week, while energy(XLE), utilities(XLU), and materials(XLB) stocks—typically more value-oriented segments of the market—all fell over 3%. Geopolitical headlines through the first half of the week were largely dominated by French and South Korean politics, though these seemed to have limited impact on U.S. markets. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

SPX and Nasdaq Composite(COMP) hit record highs while DJI fell after two weeks up. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks rose on anticipation of fresh stimulus measures, along with resilient manufacturing data released the prior week. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) gained 2.33%, while the blue chip CSI 300 was up 1.44%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index added 2.28%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Many analysts expect China’s leadership will announce further action to support the economy during the Central Economic Work Conference, an annual meeting in which top officials map out the economic agenda for the next year. Economic growth targets and plans for more stimulus are among the topics that investors will look for at the two-day meeting, which starts December 11. Expectations are high that China will roll out additional measures to ward off the growth risks posed by the incoming Trump administration’s trade policies. 

2.    China’s factory activity expanded for the second straight month. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a better-than-expected 50.3 in November from 50.1 in October, according to the statistics bureau, remaining above the 50-mark threshold separating growth from contraction. The nonmanufacturing PMI, which measures construction and services activity, fell to a below-consensus 50 in November from October’s 50.2 reading. Separately, the private Caixin/S&P Global survey of manufacturing activity rose to 51.5 in November from 50.3 in October. The Caixin services PMI eased to 51.5 from 52 in October but remained in expansion. 

3.    The value of new home sales by the country’s top 100 developers fell 6.9% in November from a year ago, reversing October’s 7.1% gain, according to the China Real Estate Information Corp. The persistent slide in new home prices showed China's property sector has yet to show a sustained recovery and supported the view that Beijing will announce further measures to arrest the sector’s yearslong decline.

Click below SSE and .HSI indexes for their weekly charts. 

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

STI index (STI) hit new record high this week, closed at 3796.16 level. YZJ Ship, Sembcorp, DBS were among top gainers of the week. Refer to below index stocks weekly performance.

Click below for STI weekly chart.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.