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Sunday, November 12, 2023

Stocks End Higher as Yields Stabilize

Weekly Wrap Content for the week of Nov 10:

1. Week 45 major indexes performance;

2. Week 45 US sector indexes performance;

3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S.

For the week of 10 Nov, U.S three major indexes posted their second straight week of gains as Treasury yields subsided, helping the SPX and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) notch their second straight week of gains. Both indexes are now near two-and-a-half-month highs. It was one of the final weeks of major third-quarter corporate earnings releases, and upside surprises from some technology-oriented firms appeared to provide support to the growth indexes. Refer to major indexes’ weekly performance table below.

Key highlights for the week and outlook:

1.    Yields increase after weak 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction. Treasury yields generally decreased through the middle of the week but climbed on Thursday amid the weak 30-year Treasury auction. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.) Traders may have also reacted to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who told a gathering of the International Monetary Fund that policymakers were “not confident” that they had achieved “a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time.” 

2.    Consumer sentiment index as the University if Michigan reported fell to a preliminary reading of 60.4 in November from 63.8 in October, the fourth consecutive monthly drop. The latest decline reflected eroding consumer sentiment over the long-term economic outlook, as well as growing concern over high interest rates, survey director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. 

3.    Risk of the looming U.S government shutdown deadline is around November 17, although the expectation for a continuing resolution to be passed has increased, particularly given that there is now a Speaker of the House in place. 

4.    The CPI and PPI reports will be in focus in coming week, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

SPX sectors in play

Six out of 11 sectors of the SPX index closed higher in the week. Growth stocks such as Tech( XLK), Communication Services(XLC) and Consumer Discretionary(XLY)  outperformed. The typical defensive names such as Utilities (XLU) and Energy(XLE) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

The major three U.S stock indexes all hit their two-month high this week. Posted two consecutive weekly gains. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts respectively in a new window.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart


China/HK

Equities in China rose as investors remained broadly unmoved by data showing that consumer prices slipped back into contraction, reviving the specter of deflation hanging over the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) rose 0.27%, while blue chip CSI 300 advanced 0.07%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 2.61%. (Refer to the above weekly performance table).  

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    China’s consumer price index fell 0.2% in October from the prior-year period, after remaining unchanged in September, as lower pork prices weighed on food prices. Meanwhile, the producer price index dropped 2.6% from a year ago, marking the 13th consecutive month of decline. 

2.    Trade data offered a mixed snapshot of China’s economy. Overseas exports declined 6.4% in October from a year earlier, surpassing the 6.2% fall in September, amid weaker global demand. However, imports unexpectedly rose by 3%, reversing the 6.2% contraction in September and marking the first year-on-year growth since September 2022. 

3.    The latest readings underscored the fragility of China’s economy and appeared to add to concerns that growth has not yet bottomed. Despite Beijing’s recent efforts to prop up demand, many economists predict that the government will introduce further stimulus measures to counter deflationary pressures.

Click below title to view weekly charts.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

Singapore STI fell 1.18% this week, gave back about half of its gains from previous week’s 2.67% advance. Index stocks weekly top gainers such as SCI+4.34%, Venture+2.95%; top losers such as CDL-6.04%, Frasers L&C -5.41%, CLI- 4.23%

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

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