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Monday, July 17, 2023

Stocks rise on cooling inflation signals

Weekly Wrap Content for the week of Jul 14:

1. Week 28 major indexes performance;

2. Week 28 US sector indexes performance;

3. Major indexes weekly charts of support and resistance levels;

U.S.

For the week ended Jul 14, 2023, major indexes all rallied, as investors welcomed data showing a continued cooldown in inflation. The S&P 500 Index ended the week 6.50% below the all-time intraday high it established in early 2022. The Nasdaq Composite recorded an even stronger gain but remained 12.94% below its record peak. Both stocks and bonds jumped as investors cheered the sharp deceleration in inflation (both in the consumer and producer prices), which provides some breathing room for the Fed.

Friday also saw the unofficial start of earnings season, as bank giants Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo reported second-quarter results. Refer to major indexes’ weekly and YTD performance table below.

Key highlights for the week and outlook:

1.    Headline inflation for June came in at 3%, cooler than expected, and sharply lower from the previous month's 4% reading. At 3%, CPI is now just one-third of where it peaked a year ago. Inflation is slowing across a growing number of categories, lessening the pressure on the Fed to keep hiking. Exactly one year from the inflation peak, the headline consumer price index (CPI) has been cut by more than two-thirds, solidifying disinflation as the key theme for the economy and the markets this year.   

2.    Earnings season in the spotlight. Beyond inflation and the Fed, investors' attention will turn to corporate profits, as U.S. banks kicked off the second-quarter earnings season on Friday. Since equity markets bottomed nine months ago, the 25% rally in the S&P 500 has been exclusively driven by valuation expansion. But with the benefit of rising valuations likely mostly behind us, earnings will now have to do the heavy lifting to drive gains in the back half of the year.

SPX sectors in play

All of 11 sectors within the SPX index closed with gains for the week. Growth stocks were among the top performers, Consumer Discretionary( XLY), Communication Services(XLC) and Technology(XLK) stocks led the rally. Energy(XLE) lagged. Refer to below SPX sectors ETF weekly performance table.

Indexes technical levels

All three major indexes closed at new highs in multiple months. Technically, Dow was trying to close out of its sideway consolidation, SPX and Nasdaq both are still in up trending. Click below three indexes for their weekly charts respectively in a new window.

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

China/HK

China stocks rallied after Beijing telegraphed measures to support the country’s flagging economy. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index(SSE) rose 1.29%, while the blue chip CSI 300 added 1.92%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index(.HSI) was the top gainer with 5.71% up( See above weekly performance table).  

Key highlights for the week and outlook for China/HK:

1.    Chinese officials  announced an extension to two of the 16-point stimulus guidelines rolled out last November to support the ailing property sector. The extended policies aim to defer property development loans and encourage financial institutions to ensure the delivery of projects and will be in effect until the end of 2024. 

2.    China’s financial regulators imposed a fine of more than USD 1 billion on technology giants Ant Group and Tencent Holdings. The penalty was widely interpreted as an end to more than two years of probes into China’s biggest internet companies and a broader tech sector crackdown that spurred investor concerns about Beijing’s shifting approach to private enterprise. 

3.    China’s CPI remained unchanged in June from a year earlier and marked the weakest reading since February 2021.

Technically, both .HSI and SSE index still stuck in its consolidation range since mid-May. Click below title to view weekly charts.

SSE weekly chart

.HSI weekly chart

Singapore

The STI index rallied and gained 3.48% this week, recovered nearly all of its past weeks losses and closed near its sideway consolidation top.

STI weekly chart

Source: Some contents and data excerpted from various public market reports.

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